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Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by chasd00 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:25PM (#46102399)
Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish”

Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by johnnyanmac on Monday December 01, 2025 @12:14AM (#46103721)
>Ftfa (the part I could read)

You did in fact not rtfm?

>Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econ...

I don't know where you're seeing "record numbers". 2024 wasn't a great year and you can argue spending was flat from that after inflation. I think the more relevant factor is "who" is spending the money in such a k-shaped economy. .

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by programmertote on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:55PM (#46102591)
I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger).

I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices rose by quite a bit between the start of the year and now. So we need to see if this increase is sales match up to inflation (which, unfortunately, would be more difficult to rely on knowing that that metric has become politicized.)

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by dudus on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:00PM (#46102626)
Same here. My big purchase for Black Friday last year was an OLED TV.

This year was prescription glasses.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by benmw333 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:09PM (#46103077)
bf related, I bought: 1) trail mix 2) licorice 3) books on diy house / carpentry

not bf related but happened this week: 1) cv axles for my car ~500 and will install myself

i am employed and just make it into 6 figures $110k, which apparently is poverty level now if you have a few dependents. i consider myself fortunate.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by DaveZale on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:57PM (#46102610)
fwiw the Tokyo noodle packs' price actually dropped, if instant noodles is one of your staples.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by master_crab on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:41PM (#46102501)
Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat.

Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by chasd00 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:32PM (#46102860)
“Slightly higher than flat” is still a new record.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by doctorpangloss on Sunday November 30, 2025 @11:12PM (#46103398)
Haha, Black Friday sets record by being the worst discounts ever.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by brazukadev on Monday December 01, 2025 @02:43AM (#46104603)
"The best iphone launched yet" feelings
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jeffbee on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:57PM (#46102606)
You also have to adjust such things for population, which was up about .6% in August vs. last August, the latest data we have.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by 3eb7988a1663 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:06PM (#46102670)
Last report I saw said US population was set to drop this year - first time in 250 years. With our demographic boomer bubble, continually dropping fertility, and anti-immigration stance, the trend is likely to continue.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jeffbee on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:24PM (#46103177)
With the growth we already had in 2025 you'd have to nuke LA to end the year with a decline.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by johnnyanmac on Monday December 01, 2025 @12:20AM (#46103744)
https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/0...

Most population growth was due to immigration for a while, and immigration (for obvious reasons in 2025) is way, way down.

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-us-population-could-shri...

what's your report?

>you'd have to nuke LA

Let's not give this administration ideas, please.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jeffbee on Monday December 01, 2025 @12:44AM (#46103917)
Do you normally get your demographic statistics from Brookings and AEI? My reference is to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM its source being https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/pi0825.pdf

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by mghackerlady on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:01PM (#46110641)
If we're thinking of nuking places in CA, I hope to god it's the valley. Put an end to this AI bs
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by tayo42 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:43PM (#46103268)
Doesn't black Friday kind of suck now and for the last few years? There's sales all of the time, and there's all those open secrets about black Friday skus now.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by LightBug1 on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:42PM (#46111227)
I found BF week was "ok" ... found a few genuine bargains ... but Cyber Monday really sucked ... I saw absolutely nothing new in terms of wow prices ... n=1
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by nrhrjrjrjtntbt on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:31PM (#46102433)
Black friday is a datapoint. But maybe people are deferring purchases to these sale periods. What proportion of goods were luxury vs. not.

Also poor people can get into debt they are still poor. Maybe they can afford a nintendo switch but not afford to raise a family.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by thinkingtoilet on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:43PM (#46102513)
The only things I bought on Black Friday were things I would normally have bought but just waited a few weeks/months to get.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by SoftTalker on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:01PM (#46102634)
Same among people I know. My MIL needed to replace some kitchen appliances and waited for BF sales.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by kshacker on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:55PM (#46103015)
Deferring sales is one datapoint. But setting records is another datapoint and counter to deferring IMO.

Edit there is talk below of inflation adjusted numbers being high but meh

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by 3Mathematicians on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:44PM (#46102523)
Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. If anything, in my opinion, this strengthens the k-shaped economic growth stat that the article mentions.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by master_crab on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:47PM (#46102534)
Yup, only the rich are powering this economy now. That bodes poorly for the country’s stability long term.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by refurb on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:21PM (#46103157)
Top 10% is a household making more than $191k so a couple making $95k each.

Rich indeed!

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by JumpCrisscross on Sunday November 30, 2025 @11:55PM (#46103622)
Generally speaking, the rich is anyone who makes slightly more than you.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by refurb on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:16AM (#46104097)
It's like the saying about alcoholics - "an alcoholic is anyone who drinks 1 more drink than you".
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by almosthere on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:59PM (#46102621)
can also look at it as an opportunity to gather friends and start a small drywall company. Those are in demand, for example. The rich are building more buildings than ever. If you live in the bay area, you can very well see 300k / year if you keep yourself busy.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by estearum on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:52PM (#46102995)
Then if you're successful, you can sell it to a PE firm where it will further buoy the rich!

Can't see how this positive feedback loop gets us to a bad place at all!

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by gruez on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:42PM (#46103263)
>Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg.

What was the historical trend? Otherwise you can't draw much from just "49.2%" alone, aside from a vague sense that stuff should be fairer.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by johnnyanmac on Monday December 01, 2025 @12:25AM (#46103789)
> What was the historical trend?

No, it is not normal for 10% of the coountry to power half the spending. Just think about that statistic for a second. Spending includes groceries, services, and other continual needs. A few private jets can't outspend millions of people buying food.

But here's your chart: https://preview.redd.it/2pcvmm0u3jpf1.png?width=798&auto=web...

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by gruez on Monday December 01, 2025 @09:37AM (#46107933)
>No, it is not normal for 10% of the coountry to power half the spending.

Yet, if you look at your chart, it was 40% in 1989s and have been slowly edging up. While 40% is a smaller number than 50%, you can make the same argument about 40% not being "normal", yet society has been chugging along just fine.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by seanmcdirmid on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:27PM (#46102407)
Shouldn’t every year be a record considering population growth and inflation?
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by eru on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:48PM (#46102552)
You could look at inflation adjusted per-capita sales, of course.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by seanmcdirmid on Sunday November 30, 2025 @11:03PM (#46103363)
Ya, when I ask Gemini:

While there isn't a definitive inflation-adjusted per-capita number for 2025, recent data indicates that overall sales growth was outpaced by inflation, meaning consumers likely bought fewer items. Total Black Friday spending was up, but the average number of items purchased declined. For instance, Salesforce reported total spending was up 3% but order volume was down 2%, with average selling prices climbing 7%.

...

Per-capita sales: The increase in spending is largely driven by higher prices, meaning the actual volume of goods purchased per person likely decreased compared to the previous year, even with higher total spending, says The New York Times.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by tomrod on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:33PM (#46102448)
K shaped economy with increasing expenditure means the wealthier increase their spending as a portion of the economy and at an absolute level. It is not interpreted as the polity doing well - if anything, it is cause for concern.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by Ericson2314 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:34PM (#46102456)
The wealthy don't buy more crap on black Friday.

Inequality is very visible in terms of what sort of consumption occurs. Gotta look at the qualitatives.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by zerosizedweasle on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:26PM (#46103183)
Wealthy people love feeling like they are getting a deal.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by Ericson2314 on Monday December 01, 2025 @03:38PM (#46112864)
I would not expect wealthy people to be more price sensitive over all.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by alfalfasprout on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:35PM (#46102462)
Sure they do. And during the holiday season too.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by Libidinalecon on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:48PM (#46102551)
I don't know if it is just the wealthy either.

The retired middle class boomers I know are completely outside the business cycle.

While I don't think they have enough to really be considered wealthy, they have no mortgage payment, a social security check, a pension and most have a 401k.

The business cycle will not change their spending one bit.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by AnimalMuppet on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:58PM (#46102613)
It may, a bit. If the 401k is in the stock market, and the stock market is down, their total visible money is down. That tends to decrease enthusiasm for spending.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by bryanlarsen on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:22PM (#46102778)
It may also affect it a lot. Retirees I know have a retirement plan that involves their retirement accounts being at a specific level at the end of each year. If their accounts are over that level because the stock market had a good year, they consider it funny money that they're allowed to spend.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by tadfisher on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:36PM (#46103235)
That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by addaon on Sunday November 30, 2025 @11:43PM (#46103546)
> That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.

Being an aging human is a suicide note. The extra steps are the entire point of retirement.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by anon373839 on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:36PM (#46102472)
The rise in Black Friday sales is misleading because the sales reflect inflation rather than increased consumer demand.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by listenallyall on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:50PM (#46102559)
I think it is more that a greater number of products were heavily marketed by a greater number of companies. My social feeds were flooded with single-product companies and online-only companies aggressively selling all kinds of gear and gadgets. Travel pillows (like 5 different brands), ski socks, luggage, exercise equipment, etc etc. Not gonna lie, I bought some stuff I likely would not have otherwise!
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by AuthAuth on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:35PM (#46102464)
the country is growing so it will commonly "set records". We need to look at it in the context of previous years. Before I went and checked the stats I expected to see instore shopping to be down since americans are poorer than previous years and online shopping to be up since demand is growing and online caters to a worldwide audience.

Checking the stats online growth is up and on par with previous years creating that record breaking stat. Instore numbers arent out yet but some figures are claiming less foot traffic in stores compared with previous years. So i'd say to early to really call if spending was down(compared with expectations)

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by Jupe on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:49PM (#46102558)
A few observations:

1. I saw the same headline - the article stated that there were record SEASON sales, not Black Friday sales. The headline did not match the content of the article. 2. Record revenue, not necessarily record units sold. To be expected with inflation. 3. Savvy online shoppers may be bundling purchases to reduce shipping costs. Waiting for a seasonal sale to buy holiday gifts as well as detergent, snacks and underwear may be quite prudent.

Finally, increased sales revenue does not necessarily equate to more jobs. It can, but by no means does it have to.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by untwerp on Sunday November 30, 2025 @11:20PM (#46103445)
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by vannevar on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:14PM (#46103108)
Not necessarily. Average income can be up substantially at the same time that median income remains flat or even declines. This means that it is possible for spending by wealthier Americans to make up for sales lost from the unemployed middle class and poor.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by eru on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:48PM (#46102544)
> Ftfa (the part I could read) [...]

https://archive.is/NvSXc

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by csomar on Sunday November 30, 2025 @10:05PM (#46103060)
The volume is down. What actually increased is the $$ value.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by listenallyall on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:44PM (#46102522)
Black Friday has become Cyber Monday as well. Everyone has a phone, nobody is waiting to log on to their PC at work to do some online shopping.

The holiday season on the whole is a much better indicator, not just one single day. And even then, spending needs to be checked against debt incurred.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by garciasn on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:57PM (#46102607)
Black Friday started weeks before the actual day in order to increase the spending. It’s not an apples to apples comparison to prior years.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by listenallyall on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:26PM (#46102813)
As a marketing term yes but the Bloomberg analysis is only looking at the actual single day following Thanksgiving.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by philamonster on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:42PM (#46102508)
I didn't buy shit on purpose this weekend, like every year and like most weekends. Some people do that. I wish more would.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jinushaun on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:36PM (#46102471)
Don’t underestimate credit cards and consumerism.
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by Iwan-Zotow on Sunday November 30, 2025 @09:31PM (#46102850)
Pop growth of ca .5 pct and inflation delivered said record
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by alfalfasprout on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:34PM (#46102459)
Not necessarily. Lots of explanations:

(1) People wait for when they perceive they'll get the best deals to do their shopping. (2) K-shaped economy (data is already bearing this out btw): Spending from the wealthy is driving consumption figures vs. the bulk of the population (3) Anxiety about rising prices cause people to purchase now vs. later. See for example RAM prices.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by bitwize on Sunday November 30, 2025 @08:30PM (#46102429)
One of the truly great things about American toxic individualism is that it need not be constrained by rationality; American capitalism finds ways around that. Need to Christmas shop for everyone in your family but don't have enough actual income? Simply go into massive credit card debt! You're probably pre-approved for several cards already; check for our flyer!
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jameslk on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:05AM (#46104047)
K-shaped economy is the buzz word these days
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by cal_dent on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:26AM (#46104166)
i remember when it was the buzzword in q3 2020 too....
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by jameslk on Monday December 01, 2025 @01:41AM (#46104257)
Yes it’s been a thing for a while
Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by intended on Monday December 01, 2025 @02:18AM (#46104457)
The market is diverging with people who are in the upper echelons having money to spend and everyone else having nothing.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2025/11/25/us-e...

The K shaped economy.

Re:Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff? by port11 on Monday December 01, 2025 @02:53AM (#46104682)
Others have pointed out the brackets really buying, but I'd also argue that people deferring their purchases to a period of sales is generally not a good thing.