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Re:How China's “debt traps” work by Animats on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:17PM (#37741326)
It's not just internationally. China has done that to its own people. Or worse. Look at Evergrand and Sunac.

The government of China let developers sell un-built apartments to future residents. The residents not only paid down payments, but took on a mortgage obligation for an un-built building. "The majority of new properties in China — about 90% — are sold before being completed." - CNN. This produced a terrible incentive for developers to do huge numbers of housing starts and then not finish the building.

In most of the rest of the world, developers have to finance construction with their own money or a high-interest construction loan, then sell the completed building. This gives developers a strong incentive to finish the job. Building quality control is often a problem, but unfinished projects less so.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by reisse on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:36PM (#37741641)
> The residents not only paid down payments, but took on a mortgage obligation for an un-built building.

So what? They had a choice between paying more money for already built house now or paying less money but accepting the risks of developer's failure.

> This produced a terrible incentive for developers to do huge numbers of housing starts and then not finish the building.

Ugh, it's not like venture investing when developers are not liable for the failure of the company. The law usually (don't know exactly about China) skews the balance in favour of property buyers.

> In most of the rest of the world, developers have to finance construction with their own money or a high-interest construction loan, then sell the completed building.

And the cost of that high-interest construction loan is paid by the future residents. Not something you want when your goal is to give most of the population cheap housing.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by stickfigure on Monday October 02, 2023 @02:29PM (#37742417)
> So what?

A very large number of Chinese citizens will lose their savings to these ponzi-esque construction schemes. Vast waves of defaults may take the banks with them. In Albania something similar caused mass civil unrest.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by ceejayoz on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:21PM (#37743094)
In case anyone wants a cite on the Albania bit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Albanian_civil_unrest

Ponzi/pyramid schemes captured two thirds of Albania's population.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by callalex on Monday October 02, 2023 @02:54PM (#37742733)
Why don’t poor people just get more money? It would solve most of their problems.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by aleph_minus_one on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:25PM (#37743946)
> Why don’t poor people just get more money? It would solve most of their problems.

Well, every clever businessman will simply increase the prices in such a situation since more people can now afford to pay more. Problem solved *not*. Markets are self-calibrating.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by jncfhnb on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:18PM (#37743845)
The construction companies promised to build houses and funded the construction with sales of promises to build more houses. Now real estate is crashing, and the construction company is going bankrupt, and you’ve got home buyers who are underwater on a mortgage for a house that is not built. The construction company has billions in unearned revenue that it cannot afford to deliver on.

This is an absolute nightmare. Hundreds of billions of dollars in liability. And somehow getting the funding to complete these works will not improve their financial standing because they already took all the money for it.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by jxramos on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:29PM (#37741527)
There's something very powerful behind incentives level thinking, it really does push you into second and third order effects and meta level interactions to think "if this then what next". I've been wanting to step up my level of engaging and contemplating incentives in the generic.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by dopeboy on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:32PM (#37741561)
Same here. If you find some literature about it that you're willing to share, would love to read and swap notes.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by ipnon on Monday October 02, 2023 @02:47PM (#37742655)
Read an introduction to economics textbooks. Use one from a popular MOOC syllabus. Cowen and Tabarrok is a great example.

Once you can turn everything into a model and an equilibrium the biggest systems of the world become much clearer.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by eklavya on Monday October 02, 2023 @01:27PM (#37741485)
Not in India, developers can sell before building but the money is in an escrow and released as the construction progresses. Also penalties and interest on any delays. I don't think selling unbuilt buildings is the bad thing, it's having no regulations or protections alongside that.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Estate_(Regulation_and_...

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by rfoo on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @11:24AM (#37753142)
China has

> the money is in an escrow and released as the construction progresses.

too.

The problem is it doesn't work: the fund release schedule can't be perfectly aligned with each stage of the constitution on a cost basis. There's a large amount of unfinished buildings (rather than not started at all) at a certain stage - it's the point when the_amount_of_fund_released - the_construction_cost_so_far is maxed.

I like the USA solution more - no mortgage for unfinished buildings. Developers can still sell it, but good luck.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by wheelerof4te on Monday October 02, 2023 @02:44PM (#37742609)
"The majority of new properties in China — about 90% — are sold before being completed." - CNN"

Not sure if this is some kind of joke. Many countries have laws that permit selling appartments when they are about 80% complete. Some have lower, some higher percentages.

Just your average low-tier negative CNN propaganda, I guess.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway29812 on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:18PM (#37743052)
When you do it at the scale described, and make real estate market with large bubbles the corner stone of your economy, you get a unique situation than cannot just be explained away with "other countries do this too"
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by 26fingies on Monday October 02, 2023 @02:48PM (#37742668)
i was gonna say - a lot of places you can put a bunch of cash down for an apartment that only exists as a picture on a sign somewhere.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by shawabawa3 on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:02PM (#37742845)
In the UK you can buy "off plan", but you only pay a deposit, and that goes into escrow until you get the keys, the developer can't touch the money until then

I assume it's similar in most countries

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by phanimahesh on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @03:15PM (#37756236)
Not quite. In india properties get loans during early construction as well, and the amounts are disbursed in tranches based on completion progress. Timelines must be filed publicly with RERA and a non RERA approved property is a red flag. No escrows as such for loans taken by buyer.

What I call loan is a similar arrangement to mortgage. Buyer pledges property as collateral, pays about 20% out of pocket, rest is a debt to be paid. Defaults result in loss of ownership of property. The agreements are tripartite. Builder gets paid from the loan taken out by buyer in tranches and builder reputation matters along with market value assessment and buyer's credit profile for obtaining a loan.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by vondur on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:08PM (#37742913)
Other countries have the rule of law and you can sue a developer. That’s not possible in China. I did read where disgruntled Chinese are withholding payments on these unfinished buildings. Not sure what the repercussions could be for those who do it.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway50600 on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:33PM (#37744039)
Lots of people lost a lot of money on never finished apartments in my (EU) country. Suing doesn't help you when there's no money left to distribute.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by HeyLaughingBoy on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:22PM (#37743109)
Often at a significant discount over waiting for construction to complete.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway29812 on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:17PM (#37743032)
Most countries haven't made it the corner stone of their economy.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by nonethewiser on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:32PM (#37744717)
You mean like a deposit, right? Not a mortgage.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by John23832 on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:49PM (#37744935)
In the west (at least America) that money needs to be put in escrow.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by seanmcdirmid on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:05PM (#37742878)
Nothing you stated in your comment contradicts the statement from CNN that you are quoting. I'm guessing this is about CNN describing to its American readers what you take as a natural harmonious fact?
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by wheelerof4te on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:17PM (#37743039)
I am commenting because CNN portraits this as something negative when it comes to China.

When in fact, it's fairly normal situation almost anywhere in the world.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway50600 on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:23PM (#37743924)
I am in EU, own an unfinished - actually not even started yet - apartment. Can confirm, absolutely normal.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by dantyti on Monday October 02, 2023 @08:14PM (#37746257)
have you paid for your non-existent apartment in full already?
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by washadjeffmad on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:25PM (#37744625)
Sinophobic pandering is hot all over. "Nothing to miss, here" is the intent, as if it would be crippling somehow for viewers to discover that not all of the world is developing.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by seanmcdirmid on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:33PM (#37744730)
CNN is addressing its American audience to a practice that is not familiar in the USA. Yes, CNN is USA-centric, because...it is an American news company with a primary user base in America.

That other countries mortgage unbuilt homes is more a "what about" rather than "facts needed for reader to understand."

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by wheelerof4te on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @04:55AM (#37749451)
"American news company with a primary user base in America."

And it's infamous for misrepresenting the other parts of the world to better suit USA's interests. Cases of outright lying and negative propaganda that they know is a lie abound.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by buttercraft on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @07:26AM (#37750394)
What was the lie in this case?
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @10:29AM (#37752459)
There was no lie here, just a fact that wasn’t disputed. If you want to complain about CNN lying, find a lie in the article rather than a fact.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by georgeecollins on Monday October 02, 2023 @03:52PM (#37743554)
You can buy a house in the US from a developer before it is built. I think maybe the difference is that if something goes wrong you have a good chance of suing the developer. That may also be the case in China. I don't know.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by xenadu02 on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:10PM (#37743766)
For US residential homes the bank has set milestones where they release funds. If the developer leaves the house half-built they only get half-paid (give or take). A similar thing applies to renovations.

Banks can and do refuse to pay until things are completed and city inspections pass the work. Could a city inspector collude with a bank and developer to rip off customers? Sure... but even if that happens it can only be small scale. The odds of the scheme collapsing increases exponentially with every additional city/bank/developer participating.

Politically China works differently. I'm sure there are plenty of developers doing good work. That clearly must be the case - not every building is a pile of garbage. But being a more centralized single-party state with state-owned banks the opportunities for shenanigans is obviously higher. It may also be driven by how much local budgets are influenced by new projects rather than ongoing property taxes. There is an incentive to approve projects and it is embarrassing to admit we should be tearing down the new building because everyone involved cut massive corners... that might also scare off new customers for the next project. Better to cover everything up and keep the scam going.

For that matter state owned banks from any country are well-known for perpetually extending loans rather than admitting the loan is garbage. This is not unique to China nor news to anyone.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by seanmcdirmid on Monday October 02, 2023 @04:00PM (#37743664)
You can sign a contract to buy a house from a developer before it is built. No bank will give you a mortgage before the house is built (even if they give you pre-approval), but of course you could pay in cash if you had that and wanted to (taking risk that the builder might go out of business and you will be SOL).

Since most people buy homes with mortgages, most homes in the USA aren't bought before they are built.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway2990 on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:20PM (#37744565)
Most countries have laws protecting buyers. In the case of China those people are fucked. They buy off plan, the ground is never broken, the companies file bankruptcy, the buyer is on the hook for the mortgage for a property that will never exist.

There’s no personal bankruptcy in China so buyers are screwed.

But do keep trying to justify everything as “negative propaganda against China”

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by gorgonical on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:30PM (#37744688)
I think this is a key point to catch in this discussion. Like a sibling comment said, this is the way things are done in his EU country, but the big difference is that EU countries are higher-trust with way more financial regulation and accountability. China's economy is fundamentally not predicated on the rule of law and that's an important point here.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by ccding on Monday October 02, 2023 @08:35PM (#37746427)
This is not true. In China, buyers have to pay the down payment and mortgage before the apartment is built, but for some reason if the builder left the apartment half built, buyers do get their money back from the bank.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway2990 on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:14AM (#37749547)
No. You don’t pay off a mortgage before the home is built lol. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.

You have to pay in full to the developer. By taking out a loan which consists of a downpayment.

The developer now has 100% of the money. And the buyer has nothing but debt.

The developers are either never breaking ground or never completing the building. Using the money to buy more land and sell more homes.

When they file for bankruptcy. The banks still need the money back from the buyer. Since the buyer has no home because it was never finished they effectively lose their investment and their lives as debt collection takes their cars, live-in home. Etc.

Stop spreading misinformation that buyers aren’t suffering. This is people’s lives at stake. Lying to people and pretending like nothing is wrong makes you a terrible human being when people’s lives are at stake.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by dang on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @01:33PM (#37768697)
Can you please make your substantive points without breaking the site guidelines? You broke more than one of them with this post.

I'm sure you have a good point about mortgages and developers and banks, but it's more important not to set the forum on fire, and that is what the site guidelines exist to avoid.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway2990 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @08:54PM (#37773670)
Nice one. Flag it and hide it so you can protect the guy defending the CCP. Nice to know HN is a propaganda forum.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by throwaway2990 on Wednesday October 04, 2023 @11:47PM (#37774714)
You have to pay in full to the developer. By taking out a loan which consists of a downpayment. The developer now has 100% of the money. And the buyer has nothing but debt. The developers are either never breaking ground or never completing the building. Using the money to buy more land and sell more homes. When they file for bankruptcy. The banks still need the money back from the buyer. Since the buyer has no home because it was never finished they effectively lose their investment and their lives as debt collection takes their cars, live-in home. Etc. Stop spreading misinformation that buyers aren’t suffering.
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by nonethewiser on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:31PM (#37744709)
But are they paying mortgages for something that doesn’t exist at all?
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by jryle70 on Monday October 02, 2023 @06:44PM (#37745474)
Are you talking about this article? (I don't see a link to CNN's article here)

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/14/business/evergrande-china-pro...

The exact quote is:

"[Then] there is the problem of unfinished projects, even if there is demand. The majority of new properties in China — about 90% — are sold before being completed, meaning that any setbacks for home builders could directly impact buyers, according to economists."

What is the problem with the paragraph? It describes a practice that is common in China but may not be known to CNN's audience. It mentions a pitfall of the practice, which is true and has played out many times, in China and elsewhere, easily verifiable. Nowhere does it say that it's a China only problem.

In fact, read the whole article before playing the victim. Not long. You'd be hard pressed to say it's more negative that a US-related economy news piece.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by hkmaxpro on Monday October 02, 2023 @07:45PM (#37746039)
Have you seen unfinished buildings of this scale anywhere else? These are just two examples from Guangzhou, one of the top cities in China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K368l0yNxvs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhv424HlkGM

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by seoulmetro on Monday October 02, 2023 @08:51PM (#37746545)
It's China, you can't see anything they do in the scale they do it in anywhere else in the world. What's worse, not building enough or building too many?
Re:How China's “debt traps” work by littlestymaar on Monday October 02, 2023 @05:43PM (#37744866)
> In most of the rest of the world, developers have to finance construction with their own money or a high-interest construction loan, then sell the completed building. This gives developers a strong incentive to finish the job.

I don't know how it works in other countries but in France for new apartments you almost always buy them before or during construction, which allow new residents to settle in right after the construction has finished instead of waiting for months for the sale.

The way we deal with the incentive alignment is simply by having a justice system that makes sure contracts are actually enforceable and mandatory insurance policy for developers should anything bad happen to their company.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by lenkite on Tuesday October 03, 2023 @05:51AM (#37749767)
> The government of China let developers sell un-built apartments to future residents.

This happens in India also.

Re:How China's “debt traps” work by hatsune on Monday October 09, 2023 @09:41PM (#37827658)
this was banned recently (around 2020), also that sounds as legal as how stocks work in the first place during age of exploration and an intervention within seems maybe not strictly necessary.