News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by bluedevilzn on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @10:53PM (#36413813)
I wouldn’t trust anything geohot says. He doesn’t have access to any inside information.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by valianteffort on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @11:01PM (#36413865)
He doesn't strike me as the type of person to lie (except when trolling). His reputation is solid enough that I'm sure he's had discussions with people in the space.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by zoklet-enjoyer on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @11:04PM (#36413878)
He's a crypto scammer. Look up cheap eth
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by valianteffort on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @11:11PM (#36413918)
I mean that was marketed as a memecoin from the beginning. More so than doge even.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by pixelpoet on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @01:53AM (#36414888)
He added some code to give himself tons of it and didn't report it to anyone, dismissed it as a joke or something when it was found and then disappeared after hyping the project. Sound familiar?

To me he joins the ranks of the most basic shady crypto types.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by imtringued on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:02PM (#36420293)
You mean he has become Elon Musk?
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by lannisterstark on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @11:44PM (#36414150)
>his reputation is solid

Eh, is it? Not sure if I consider him an authority on anything anymore.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ProgrammerHumor/comments/z2y8i0/fro...

>This is the interview. Build this feature. You don't get source access. Link the GitHub and license it MIT.

is akin to "Build this for free, license it MIT so I can use it without any issues, and oh, btw, I dont have authority to hire you, teehee."

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by jimmySixDOF on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:09AM (#36414289)
Well he picked the right problem at the time which was (and still is!) search. I was really looking forward to some progress on this and then he deleted tweets and dropped off the system. I would love to see a podcast of him talking about that & fyi @realGeorgeHotz is back on it now to promote Tiny grad/box/corp.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by threeseed on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:48AM (#36415217)
As someone who has spent 20+ years working in large companies you can spot developers like him a mile away i.e. the sort of behaviour you see with skilled but arrogant grads/interns.

The right approach when you're new is to quietly pick a simple problem away from the core services where you can learn the processes and polices needed to get something into Production. More so when you're in a company that is undergoing a brain drain.

Then you can progressively move to solving more demanding and critical issues.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by pseg134 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @07:43AM (#36417236)
You should write a book or a blog about how to not rock the boat at large companies. Maybe you can call it Going Nowhere Fast.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by barrkel on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @08:06AM (#36417407)
Large companies normally (unlike Twitter) have achieved strong product market fit and are all about tweaks that deliver marginal revenue. Given that they already have a big slice of the market, the multiplier on marginal revenue makes what you're doing worthwhile.

"Rocking the boat" is more likely than not to make things worse.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by threeseed on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @08:03AM (#36417385)
You don't need a book about it when it's a concept children understand.

Before you run you learn to walk.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by pseg134 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:20PM (#36420529)
Some people were just born to run. Their legs don’t really work right for walking.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by matteocontrini on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:14AM (#36416657)
I remember watching a live stream [1] of him going through Twitter engineering articles and trying to reverse engineer the Twitter frontend and backend, and he clearly had absolutely no clue of how anything remotely related to the web works.

He was just clicking around compulsively, jumping between stuff randomly without even reading it, while not understanding what he was looking at. I have no idea how he's successful in tech, judging from what I saw there.

[1] https://youtu.be/z6xslDMimME

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by joe-user on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @09:45AM (#36418363)
> I have no idea how he's successful in tech, judging from what I saw there.

I think judging only from what you saw there is the issue. If you look somewhere like Wikipedia [0], you'll see he was the first person to jailbreak the iPhone, the first person to achieve hypervisor access to the PS3's CPU, he took first place in several notable CTFs (at least one time as a one-person team), he worked on Google's Project Zero team (and created a debugger called QIRA while he was there), creating comma.ai, and the list goes on.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by hgsgm on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:17PM (#36423773)
He's good at breaking APIs. That's different skill from making APIs and things.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by ec109685 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:07AM (#36414281)
This wasn’t very impressive: https://www.pcmag.com/news/hacker-george-hotz-resigns-from-t...

Spent two weeks trying to find someone to build a faceted search UI and then quit.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by nl on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:45AM (#36414488)
I think deciding to get away from the Musk/Twitter debacle as soon as you realize how bad it is isn't necessarily a bad thing..
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by bboygravity on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @01:21AM (#36414670)
How is it a debacle and how is it bad?
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by simondotau on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:23AM (#36415066)
Shh. Don’t ask questions of the one true narrative, lest you be downvoted.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by threeseed on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @03:04AM (#36415321)
Because Twitter is trending towards bankruptcy.

a) It is valued at about a 1/4 of what it was purchased at.

b) Twitter Blue has generated an irrelevant amount of revenue and churn is increasing [1].

c) Roadmap looks poor. Video is a terrible direction where only Google, Amazon, TikTok etc have been able to make the numbers work and that's because it is subsidised through other revenue sources. Payments is DOA given Twitter's inability to comply with existing regulations let alone how difficult KYC/AML is to manage.

d) Regulatory and legal risk increases by the day. Lawsuits continue to pile up and EU/FTC are hovering around as Twitter is not in compliance with previous agreements.

e) Brand safety continues to be a huge challenge that isn't solvable without effectively going back to what Twitter was previously.

f) BlueSky and Instagram are both releasing competitor apps to the broader public in the coming months. The market simply won't sustain this many text-based social media apps.

[1] https://github.com/travisbrown/blue

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by simondotau on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @03:52AM (#36415668)
a) Meta had similar swings of over 3x between a 2021 high and a 2022 low. We can only guess what Twitter would be worth today if the stock was floated, but it isn’t. Substituting market valuations with our personal beliefs isn’t interesting.

b) Every social media company has a well populated graveyard of failed experiments behind them.

c) Opinion.

d) Business as usual for every social media company since the dawn of time.

e) Opinion. And advertiser behaviour suggests otherwise.

f) History is littered with new entrants which fail to unseat the incumbent. It does happen, but it’s statistically rare.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by Freedom2 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @05:31AM (#36416344)
a - f) Opinion.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by simondotau on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:47AM (#36416867)
Precisely. It’s all opinion.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by threeseed on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @07:59AM (#36417340)
Except for data points like Twitter Blue subscribers, number of active lawsuits, failed video startups etc.

As well as comments from Musk himself about the decline in the value of Twitter and from advertisers themselves about the challenges around brand safety.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by dmpk2k on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @05:16AM (#36416249)
Twitter was trending towards bankruptcy anyway.

At best it has sped up towards that destination, at worst changes will eventually avoid it.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by altcognito on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @07:11AM (#36417002)
g) bot account traffic has gone through the roof after constraints were removed. Follows from random bots occur multiple times a day on accounts with a couple dozen followers

h) the tweets served are no longer weighted towards followers but instead whoever paid for blue checks

i) accounting on views is entirely wrong with a tweet registering a billion views

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by valianteffort on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:58AM (#36414561)
His biggest issue was trying to convince the remaining engineers and Elon that a refactor was more promising than continuing to build on the layers of spaghetti code that runs twitter.

I don't disagree with him, it's just clear that he didn't understand how dire the financial situation was and that even a progressive refactor starting with the most basic features would take considerable engineering hours and money.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by hedora on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:52AM (#36415239)
As the saying goes, if you don’t have time to do it right, you’d better have time to do it twice.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by machdiamonds on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @11:02PM (#36413869)
https://twitter.com/soumithchintala/status/16712671501017210...

It looks like at least one other person has also heard the same thing.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by throwaway9274 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @01:29AM (#36414721)
2x0=0
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by startupsfail on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @01:34AM (#36414749)
It’s funny that this post is trending on HN right next to the post about a paper showing how to build a model 1000x smaller than 1.7T that can code better than LLMs 10x larger.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by TeMPOraL on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:42AM (#36416006)
I don't find it funny, I find it scary and mind-blowing: the impact of these headlines is additive - this one confirms the effectiveness of combining models, and the other one suggests you could cut the model size a couple orders of magnitude if you train on clean enough data. Together, this points at a way to achieve both GPT-4 that fits on your phone, and a much more powerful model that's not larger than GPT-4 is now.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by candiodari on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:59AM (#36416933)
If it truly is the training data that's making models smart, then that would explain that there is both a minimum and maximum "useful" size to LLMs. The recent stream of papers seems to indicate that the cleaner the input data, the less size is required.

That would negate, at least partially, the "we have 20 datacenters" advantage.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by ChatGTP on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @08:13AM (#36417476)
Is it a large language model anymore ? Something doesn’t quite add up?
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by TeMPOraL on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @09:12AM (#36418021)
It's still large. But it might no longer need to be "only few entities on the planet can afford to make one, and not at the same time, since NVIDIA can pump out GPUs only so fast" large.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by startupsfail on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @12:22PM (#36420561)
I think it is. I also think this is what OpenAI did. They’ve carefully crafted the data.

I don’t think they have an ensemble of 8 models. First, this is not elegant. Second, I don’t see how this could be compatible with the streaming output.

I’d guess that GPT4 is around 200B parameters, and it’s trained on a dataset made with love, that goes from Lorem Ipsum to a doctorate degree. Love is all you need ;)

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by mrtranscendence on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @10:56AM (#36419302)
This doesn't seem likely in the near term. An iPhone 13 Pro has 6gb of memory, which might be enough for a single 1.3b parameter model if you purged everything else out of RAM. Combining 8 (or even 4) of them on a single phone won't happen anytime soon at the rate phones improve.

Plus, none of the smaller models are really appreciably close to GPT-4 on most metrics. It's not clear to me you could get there at all with 1.3b models. Maybe somebody gets there someday with 65b models, but then you're far out of the reach of phones.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by Dylan16807 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @01:14PM (#36421404)
Are you assuming 32 bit parameters? You definitely don't need to keep that much. People have been cramming llama into 3-4 bits. You wouldn't want 8x1.3b but it should fit.

Also Apple has never gone for high RAM in mobile devices. I could go get 12GB in a brand new phone for $400, and some high end phones have had 16GB since 2020.

So combined, you could do normal app stuff with 2.5GB and 20-25b 3-bit inference with the other 9.5GB.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by espadrine on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @03:18AM (#36415407)
To be fair, this was already a common whisper at the time, so it could be a Chinese whisper effect. Even I thought this on release day: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35165874

What is weird is how competitive the open-source models are to the closed ones. For instance, PaLM-2 Bison is below multiple 12B models[0], despite it being plausibly much bigger[1]. The gap with GPT-4 is not that big; the best open-source model on the leaderboard beats it 30% of the time.

[0]: https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35893357

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by machdiamonds on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:20AM (#36415855)
From my perspective, there's a vast divide between open source models and GPT4 at present. The lmsys leaderboard rankings are derived from users independently engaging with the LLMs and opting for the answers they find most appealing. Consequently, the rankings are influenced not only by the type of questions users ask but also by their preference for succinctness in responses. When we venture into the realm of more complex tasks, such as code generation, GPT4 unequivocally outshines all open source models.

That said, the advancements in models like Orca and the "Textbooks are all you need" paper are noteworthy (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.02707.pdf, https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.11644). I'm optimistic about what future smaller models could achieve.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by espadrine on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:22AM (#36416707)
I agree. Also, ELO rankings can artificially deflate strong performers when having too few binary comparisons. The Guanaco paper points that out, giving instead a 326-point lead to GPT-4 over Guanaco-65B across 10k orderings, based on GPT-4’s opinion, which corresponds to Guanaco winning about 13% of the time. But even that only relies on the Vicuna benchmark set.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by mark_l_watson on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @09:17AM (#36418078)
There are huge differences. I used OpenAI’s APIs in my last book on LangChain and LlamaIndex, and GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 are good enough right now to support building applications for years (although I look forward to improvements).

I am writing a new book Safe For Humans AI in which I am constraining myself to using open models that can be run on a high end PC or a leased GPU server. Yesterday I was exploring what I could do with T5-flan-XXL, and it is useful, but not as effective tool as the closed OpenAI models. I will do the same with Orca this week.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by espadrine on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @09:57AM (#36418531)
I think a lot of people see a larger gap between open-source models and GPT-4 than is present because they test out the 7B models which fit on their machine. Models like T5-FLAN-XXL are very far below the quality one can expect from the best in open-source, and barely usable for CoT or tool use.

Especially for LangChain, I recommend using ≥33B models like Guanaco or WizardLM. Guanaco-65B honestly feels on-par with ChatGPT-3.5. (To be clear, there is a large gap with GPT-4 though.) It is a costly test, although GPTQ (for instance on exllama) help make it affordable.

I haven’t tried Orca since they haven’t released the weights yet, but it doesn’t seem like they have a 33B version.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by mark_l_watson on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @10:27AM (#36418881)
Thanks for your advice! I am trying to write the book examples using a A6000 (48G video memory), but I may have to go higher end. The hourly lease charge on a A6000 is very inexpensive and I wanted the examples to be "almost free" to run. I will see what is required for Guanaco-65B.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by behnamoh on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @08:20AM (#36417531)
> The gap with GPT-4 is not that big...

Oh it is though. I've tried several OS models and nothing comes even close to GPT-4. Turns out ClosedAI has a moat after all.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by loudmax on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @09:56AM (#36418511)
AI development is taking place at breathtaking velocity and GPT-4 isn't the end of the road. OpenAI's moat relies on them improving at a faster pace than competitors. I wouldn't take it for granted that OpenAI's lead will remain the same in a year as it is today. Very possibly they could expand their lead. Also possibly, their lead could vanish.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by karmasimida on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:46PM (#36422620)
Individual developers’ hardware and data has limit, I don’t see the OS models breaking into 100B models anytime soon
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by nmfisher on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @11:43PM (#36427787)
GPT-4 came roughly 12 months after GPT-3.5, and I'd say the competition is roughly approaching 3.5 now, so I'm hoping they will reach GPT-4 level early 2024. Not that far off!

Wish there was a bookmark/remind-me function so I could come back in 8 months' time and see how close I was.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by manojlds on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:51AM (#36416068)
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by simondotau on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:19AM (#36415046)
It’s fine to say you don’t believe him, it’s fine to say he’s wrong, but if you want to claim he doesn’t have inside information, I would expect a standard of evidence as good as that you would expect for Geohot’s claim.

So tell me: how do you know the Geohot doesn’t have inside information?

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by rat9988 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @02:58AM (#36415281)
It's up to Geohot to prove his claim. Althoug he may have insider information, he isn't in a position known to have inside information. It might be more correct to phrase it that way but we all got the meaning.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by lohnjemon on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:03AM (#36415737)
That's not how it works out in practice. For example, journalists who have insider info from sources and leak it on the regular don't do anything to prove they have insider information, they build up reputation based on how many predictions they make.

There's no point in outing your sources, that's how you lose them.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by rat9988 on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @05:51AM (#36416493)
Until reputation is built you aren't trusted. It seems geohot's reputation still doesn't convince everyone.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by danpalmer on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:03AM (#36416574)
He has a reputation but it's for being untrustworthy.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by manojlds on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @04:52AM (#36416076)
Prove a negative you mean?
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by simondotau on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @05:01AM (#36416138)
It's up to anyone making a claim, if they want people who aren't yet convinced to become convinced, to provide some supporting evidence. This basic rule of discourse applies whether one makes a positive claim or a negative claim.

Bluedevilzn made a negative claim, so naturally I'm asking if they can prove their negative.

Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by mach1ne on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @03:11AM (#36415371)
That's luckily not relevant here. Multiple sources have independently confirmed the same rumors. This means that there is a significant probability of it being true.
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by curiousgal on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @05:31AM (#36416346)
What exactly is "it"? What is being discussed here? The size of the model? Who cares? People will make the same API call to get the results. Everyone is acting like a glorified AI expert now smh
Re:GPT4 is 8 x 220B params = 1.7T params by HarHarVeryFunny on Wednesday June 21, 2023 @06:52AM (#36416896)
The rumor here is that GPT-4 isn't one giant model, but instead a "mixture of experts" combination of 8 smaller GPT-3 sized models with different training sets.

This has implications for what may be possible on consumer hardware.