No idea why you being downvoted. I as owner of Russian passport even been to Kiev in December 2021 and talked with a lot of friends and just normal people there on gamedev conference. There been a lot of tension for 8 years since 2014 and even more during 2021. Yet no matter political views no one in either Russia or Ukraine seriously considered full scale war possible.

Conclusion: there no way to know what is inside a head of aging autocrat.

> no matter political views no one in either Russia or Ukraine seriously considered full scale war possible.

Plenty of experts have been calling it for a decade now... EU/US influence has been slowly creeping east for 30 years. Russia had no other options really - as soon as a pro-west leader was elected to Ukraine, war was inevitable.

And the same will happen in Belarus when the leadership changes there too.

What is this “no other options” bullshit? They could just not attack Ukraine and that’s it. Nobody would attack Russia.

Have you visited any countries bordering Russia - Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan? If you do, you see quite odd things...

You see children's playgrounds that have a big sign saying 'Proudly sponsored by the USA development fund", or "This bus route is made possible by the EU funding.".

Why would the USA be using US taxpayer money to build children's playgrounds in Azerbaijan?

It's all about a long term battle for hearts and minds... Be the 'good guys' to a 5 year old child now, and in 30 years that child is a voter and you can have influence over the whole country.

Pretty smart moves... But I can see how Russia isn't happy about it.

"We invaded with tanks because the other guy funded a playground" is a hell of a take.

Some Saudis that we betrayed in Iraq flew some planes into some buildings in America so we spend two decades in Afghanistan, kicking in doors and blowing up weddings, mosques and schools as we attempt to install a pedophile government unsuccessfully.

If Americans wanted the moral high ground here we shouldn't have traded it for Raytheon's bottom line.

We have no leg to stand on and weak leadership so Russia made it's move.

I agree. Once Putin had Trump there in power he sensed that the country was weak and decided to take action thinking that the Americans were too preoccupied with trying to be some semblance of government and international relations back to order once Biden won the election.

Problem was that the Biden admin actually has experience and capabilities, and the Ukrainians decided to fight for their country and now Russia is finding out that they made a pretty poor move based on faulty assumptions.

> We have no leg to stand on

1) At some point we get our legs to stand on back - supporting Ukraine actually has gone a long way in the eyes of Europe and allies in the Pacific.

2) Not having a leg to stand on doesn't matter because we can do wrong things and then also criticize others when they do wrong things.

3) EU member states and other nations have legs to stand on and they also support the American position on Ukraine.

It remains the case that Russia didn't have to invade Ukraine and the US didn't have to invade Afghanistan. Both wars are morally reprehensible.

> US didn't have to invade Afghanistan.

If we didn't, there would have been an Afghanistan war gap.

Now do Yemen, Iraq (first and second time), Pakistan, Libya and Syria. Then do Vietnam, then consider the support and armament of Israel and finish up with decades of CIA meddling and installation of brutal dictatorships all around the globe.

Now do Ukraine.

What about US actions elsewhere makes Russia's invasion moral?

We have politicians here that voted in favor of those war crimes, demanding that Russians are punished for theirs. Let's start at home if war crimes are something we care about if not we can shut our hypocrite mouths.

"the wise man bowed his head solemnly and spoke: 'theres actually zero difference between good & bad things. you imbecile. you fucking moron'" - https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312

Worlds most obese man calls women fat.

So? Can't that be accurate?

The end of the Nazis and the Holocaust doesn't become a bad thing just because the Soviets were involved. Helping Ukraine resist a clear war of aggression doesn't become a bad thing just because the US is part of that helping. Hell, it's nice to see most of the world chip in on a more morally black-and-white scenario than is typical over the last 70 years.

If you think Russia and the US are on equal moral footing with regards to the Ukraine question, you're the @dril tweet.

It can be accurate but she is also totally within her rights to not listen to him. Do as I say not as I do has never been effective. If we want less war we need to set an example not raise the share price of our private defence contractors at the expense of civilians while wagging our finger.

Also the powers that be in the US want a war in Ukraine as much as Putin does. Probably moreso. They are selling a lot of killing machines.

> It can be accurate but she is also totally within her rights to not listen to him.

She might not be wise to. An obese doctor advising an obese patient to lose weight because of health problems still has a potentially valid point. The obese doctor might even have more useful perspective than another doctor on the issue.

> If we want less war we need to set an example...

I'm pretty sure that's what we're doing in Ukraine. China certainly would be wise to consider what a Taiwan invasion would look like if the US and allies decided to assist in a similar fashion.

> Also the powers that be in the US want a war in Ukraine as much as Putin does. Probably moreso. They are selling a lot of killing machines.

Sure. Ted Bundy and I both like to eat; that doesn't automatically make eating bad. This is precisely why we have to evaluate the actual specific scenario in question on its merits.

> I'm pretty sure that's what we're doing in Ukraine.

If we wanted to set an example we would declare war on Russia. Instead we send billions of dollars into a the unaccountable void that is the most corrupt country in Europe.

> If we wanted to set an example we would declare war on Russia.

This is not an argument made in good faith.

Look man, if really believe in this stuff the military is really struggling to find recruits right now. A lot of people are disillusioned with the forever wars as their nations infrastructure crumbles around them, costs rise to unsustainable levels and their streets are full of homeless. They watch the VA fail to serve veterans and remember the lies they were told by the elderly politicians who still haven't been replaced. You on the other hand appear to have strong convictions about this conflict, rather than costing my daughter her future via debt spending are you willing to be the boots on the ground to make sure justice is served?

My boots on the ground mean nuclear holocaust due to open war between Russia and NATO, which probably impacts your daughter a bit. If you'd told a Cold Warrior in the 80s it'd cost 10% of a single year's military budget to kneecap Russia's military without firing a shot, they'd have laughed at you; it's probably the most effective military spending we've done since WWII.

Americans are simultaneously down on "forever wars" and supportive of Ukraine assistance. Your attempt to connect the two concepts doesn't seem to be a widely shared position in the American public.

> My boots on the ground mean nuclear holocaust due to open war between Russia and NATO, which probably impacts your daughter a bit.

Oh but if you were to say, build a fighter jet and then go to Ukraine and teach the Ukrainians on how to use the jet to kill Russians, there is no way that will result in nuclear war? I'll take that as a no on the "go die for the war machine" plan.

There's direct evidence of that, yes. HIMARs, Bradleys, etc. all active in Ukraine, but importantly, manned by Ukrainians. We're also clearly providing plenty of training and intelligence support.

NATO troops actively shooting folks in the Donbas would be a very different scenario, one we're rightly avoiding. For the sake of folks like your daughter.

But if I am to believe the claims, this guy is off his rocker. Our activity doesn't reduce his nuclear capabilities at all, in fact it buys him time! He recently developed supersonic missles, his capabilities are increasing by leaps and bounds. Provocative action that isn't remotely decisive is the exact opposite of what you'd do here if that was the actual concern. You'd either cut off the head or do nothing.

> He recently developed supersonic missles

Supersonic missiles are heaps old. What Russia recently developed is _hypersonic_ missiles, and what Ukraine recently did is shoot all of down them with a patriot.

Turns out when your missiles move in predictable patterns they can still be shot down at hypersonic speeds.

Yeah, merely hypersonic missiles aren't that interesting; maneuverable hypersonic missiles/weapons, however, are.

Exactly hypersonic glide vehicles are what’s interesting, the Kinzhal is not a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The Kinzhal is effectively just an air launched slightly modified Iskander.

Nobody was even talking about America. We are talking about Russia invading Ukraine. That can still be bad even if America’s actions are also bad.

I live in Ukraine and never have seen a US-funded playground. As a father of two, I’m a frequent visitor of playgrounds. Also have never seen a “funded by EU” sign. I’m sure there are some cases with EU-funding, as I’ve read about a couple of cases in the news, but it’s not widespread at all. I’ve only seen such signs in EU proper (e.g. Lithuania).

The whole premise “someone funded a playground in my neighbor’s backyard, I have no other options. Bomb them NOW!” is beyond ridiculous.

They could also fund our playgrounds, if it’s as effective, as you claim. In any case that would be muuuuuch cheaper than starting a war with hundreds of thousands dying, sanctions and all that.

You’re probably right that the west meddles in Ukrainian politics, attempting to sway them towards being pro-west instead of pro-Russia.

I’m missing the explanation for how this justifies an extremely destructive invasion and war.

It was not inevitable, it was a decision, a choice made by specific people.

They do everything in their power to make you believe that is was inevitable to divert the blame.

Same with Taiwan. It is a choice for China to make - to invade or not.

?? Has the West moved east or did Eastern Europe run to the West out of fear of their neighbor?

But yes. US influence snuck up on Russia and tricked those countries into being scared of it. Its all so clear now...

That’s the thing, taking Ukraine gives Russia several advantages, Ukraine produces a lot of the agriculture in that region, so taking that gives them another large bargaining chip in their sphere.

Not to mention, it’s a large landmass that offers a huge buffer between the NATO countries and Russia.

And it’s got another 40 or 50 million people for Russia, which has a population problem.

And it’s got iron & Steel exports…

Taiwan has TSMC. And I suspect the US has a bunch of fueled up C-17’s ready to take all the important infrastructure to the US and plans in place to effectively destroy the rest at a moments notice.

> And it’s got another 40 or 50 million people for Russia, which has a population problem.

Taking 40M people with the same demographic problems gives you a bigger problem - not a solution...

Nice source:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2020/

In 10 years demographic in both countries will be as bad as in Japan.

I agree I don't think it'd help Putin or anything, I'm just saying that if they took Ukraine, he'd add another 42 million people to the 133 million he already rules over. That's about a third more people to rule over, and he's not concerned about the later years of a peasant Russian. I assume he's concerned with more able body young men, which, ironically is a cohort he lacks while he tries to capture the country he's trying to obtain to help with that problem.

Okay I see that majority of comments here on HN including yours have one big flaw. So I'll just try to share perspective as person who was actually born in Russia and lived there good chunk of the year till February 2022.

For some reason people from outside of ex-USSR usually suppose there is at least something rational about this war. But USSR does not exist for 30 years and there are no massive political machine. It's just a autocracy / kleptocracy where all decisions taken by a very small groups of incompetent people whos only goal is to preserve their power.

Neither there is any real ideology in Russia. Putin is a much closer to The Dictator movie than to Stalin or Hitler. He care of his giant palaces and yachts far more than about gaining 42M extra subjects to rule. This whole war is just a presidental PR campaign 2024 gone wrong.

PS: Yeah, that's it. It's not some great powerplay to control the world. Not a war with NATO or US. Not even a war over reasources or territory. It's just aging kleptocracy that stumbled and now is killing 100,000s in pointless war.

I do agree that there is a part of this is a Presidential campaign gone wrong. I don't know if I'd submit that as 100%. But Putin does like looking like a strong man. And if he took Ukraine in a week, as his original plan looked it(?), he would have definitely been able to look like the strong man. I do think there is some aspects of resources and territory though. More access to warm water ports and controlling essentially the bread basket of Europe. Lets not act like Ukraine isn't strategically important for Europe has a whole. Taking Ukraine along with having Belarus in his pocket also significantly shrink the amount of border they actually need to defend because of the mountains.

I not arguing there are no strategic importance. If he'd managed to successfully assasinate or overthrow government in 3 days then it's would be the way how Kremlin will talk of their great victory.

The deal is: neither Putin nor population of Russia give a damn about this territory control. If Ukraine will free Donetsk and Luhansk tomorrow and Crimea in a year no one in Russia will care about it. Except of course people living on occupied territories, but FSB will shut them up.

On 30 September 2022 they announced annexiation of Kherson. Claimed it's will be part of Russia forever. Just a bit more than month later on 9th November 2022 it stopped being part of Russia and no one cared about it since. And too talkative members of occupation government just died under strage circumstances.

Why are you looking at China though such different lense? Taiwan is exactly like Crimea or Cuba strategically speaking.

Please don’t invade any countries even if they’re smaller and inconvenient to your stories.

A number of reasons including

* because they could (or so they thought)

* because there’s a lot of important resources in the ground

* because they want to lay down the border between NATO and Russia and preferably not at the border of Russia but on someone else’s turf

It's really odd to fathom who someone would not understand why Xi wants to take Taiwan, and 'chips' has nothing to do with it.

People need to take a much, much broader mindset. China views Taiwan as part of China, and that's that.

I personally don't, and the Taiwanese population ought to chose what they want without material interference, and 'we' should respect that by recognizing their sovereignty and statehood if that's what they want, much like at this point we ought to be recognizing Palestine as a state, if that's what they want.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is pure classical Imperialism, Ukraine is a 'sub Russian vassal' and Russian Imperialism is part of the Russian identity - it was 'secularized' during the time of USSR, now it's just old school.

If you look at geopolitics from the 19th century it's all very clear.

That said, it is odd Apple would do this in Taiwan, and, it's a much bigger jump than people think.

This is a bold move and will reshape what Apple is, and maybe what a true international megacorp of the future looks like.

It could also make them more fragile and if they start to falter, it could really fall apart. You need a lot to work well for this to be pulled off.