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Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by rossdavidh on Monday November 14, 2022 @03:05PM (#33600162)
Paul Graham wrote an essay years ago in which he described the moment when he realized that most of the dot-com companies in the late 90's were selling their ads mostly to other dot-com companies, who were buying their ads in turn. It looked like growing revenue for everyone, but once it came time to show a profit, all of it came crashing down...
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by hef19898 on Monday November 14, 2022 @03:27PM (#33600510)
The lesson drawn, and a good one as an investor, was the YC advice that start-ups should build stuff for other start-ups.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by jgalt212 on Monday November 14, 2022 @03:37PM (#33600641)
It worked like a charm for AWS.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by justinator on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:07PM (#33601067)
In what world is AWS a startup?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by lazide on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:17PM (#33601233)
When AWS was starting?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by Nowado on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:27PM (#33601376)
You mean when they separated internal infrastructure of the largest ecommerce in the world to the point when it was possible to sell it in commodified pieces to other businesses?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by vasco on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:49PM (#33601713)
That is not what happened and is a fake myth origin story. AWS was started from scratch with a small team in south africa. The best description of all the myths and the real thing I've heard is here: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/amazon-web-services

It sounds good to perpetuate the "but Amazon.com had extra capacity they could sell" but it's not true.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by remram on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:57PM (#33601812)
Unfortunately if the only source is this 3 hour podcast, you are going to have trouble convincing anyone.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by Nowado on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:19PM (#33602106)
There are sources, I didn't go through them yet, but they are there. It's pages of unorganized links, but it's something.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by drsnow on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:28PM (#33601391)
I think it's a bit unfair to characterize every company that is "starting" as a "startup", particularly when the "startup" in question is/was backed by one of the largest companies on the planet. I don't think people think of such companies' endeavors as startups, even when they are starting.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by smachiz on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:27PM (#33601382)
I mean... a little disingenuous. AMZN was a $10-20B publicly traded company at that time. When is it a startup vs a product offering of an established company?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by sillysaurusx on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:13PM (#33602032)
There is an exact answer to your question, and it has nothing to do with the size of the company: a startup is a company designed to grow fast. Everything we associate with the success of a startup is a byproduct of growth.

With that definition, AWS is a startup. So was the iPhone. Both invented their respective markets, and had to grow quickly to do it. If either of them had needed to raise money from VCs, smart VCs would’ve invested. But they didn’t need to raise capital, since they were already a successful company.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by rossdavidh on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @05:15PM (#33615849)
The shovel-seller isn't necessarily also a prospector. They do, however, make a lot of money off of prospectors, whether any gold gets ultimately found or not.

But, when the gold rush is over, the shovel-seller may have to do big layoffs.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by loeg on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:24PM (#33602175)
Sell shovels in a gold rush?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by hef19898 on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @10:25AM (#33610263)
Which is a solid plan. Unless, of course, you buy the shovels with futures on potential gold finds and expect the resulting shovel rush to go on forever.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by hintymad on Monday November 14, 2022 @03:45PM (#33600756)
But aren't startups doing the same thing as PG said nowadays? That is, portfolio companies use each other's products to boost their revenue and user base.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by timkam on Monday November 14, 2022 @03:56PM (#33600896)
Still, in B2B you typically want to show you have some megacorp logos (in particular due to larger deal size and up-sell potential), are attractive to different industries, et cetera. So this may be a known issue, but it's also considered when assessing startups.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by jonny_eh on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:58PM (#33601831)
SpaceX just bought a bunch of ads on Twitter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/spacex-just-bought-a-big-ad-...

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by rsynnott on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:41PM (#33602397)
In a way, that that is _notable_ today is evidence that the dot-com advertising problem _isn't_ notable today. In 1999 that would be just What You Did, and not really worthy of comment.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by belval on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:10PM (#33601993)
> According to internal documents viewed by CNBC, SpaceX has spent more than $160,000 on the Twitter ad campaign for Starlink in Australia and Spain so far.

Your definition for "a bunch" is a bit questionable, but good on you for posting the source.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by freejazz on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:32PM (#33602284)
All this without your own definition of a "bunch"!
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by khuey on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:40PM (#33602393)
I'm no fan of Elon's recent antics but a $160k advertising spend doesn't strike me as a "bunch" for a major corporation.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by freejazz on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:07PM (#33602680)
How much do you think each ad costs that this wouldn't be a bunch?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by smsm42 on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:43PM (#33603067)
The main article has this quote:

The ad campaign SpaceX is buying to promote Starlink is called a Twitter “takeover.” When a company buys one of these packages, they typically spend upwards of $250,000 to put their brand on top of the main Twitter timeline for a full day, according to one current and one former Twitter employee who asked to remain unnamed because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company.

Which means 160k spent is actually well below typical deal and these deals are pretty normal for Twitter. So one may actually be worried that maybe SpaceX got a deep discount or something.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by freejazz on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @02:07AM (#33606180)
Okay but how is that still not a bunch of ads? Do you think it's one ad for $160k? Or maybe like many ads? Perhaps it's so many ads we can call it a 'bunch'?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by smsm42 on Wednesday November 16, 2022 @04:41PM (#33631096)
I have no idea how many ads is that. Could be just one ad on the top of the timeline (which obviously would be shown to many people). The point though 160k spend is not a huge deal - actually below what usually happens with ad campaigns on twitter.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by belval on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:35PM (#33602310)
You got me. I wonder if we did a poll, how much money is "a bunch of money" and how much money is "a bunch of money on ads" for people.

I think if it had been $500k or $1M I would've called it a bunch, but $160k seems low.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by freejazz on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:09PM (#33602699)
The statement was actually "a bunch of ads"
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by HKH2 on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:28PM (#33602940)
I think that's a US English thing. How much is 'a lot of money'? How much is 'a heap of money'?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by bwi4 on Monday November 14, 2022 @08:38PM (#33604163)
A bunch fits in a styrofoam beer cooler. A heap fits in the bed of a pickup truck. Anything more than that qualifies as a lot.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by smsm42 on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:45PM (#33603089)
For a serious ad campaign 160k is definitely not that big. Especially for a company with a revenue in billions.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by mateo411 on Monday November 14, 2022 @07:20PM (#33603449)
You can get a lot of impressions for 160K. You buy them in batches of 1000 using a term called CPM, which is cost per thousand -1-. CPM can be around 10 dollars for a really good segment. I'm sure there there are some adops folks that have a better knowledge than me. So, if CPM is $10, then that gives you around 1.6 million impressions.

-1- That's right M is for a thousand, because M is a thousand using Roman Numerals. You thought you would never have to remember that.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by soared on Monday November 14, 2022 @09:20PM (#33604452)
You are correct, though 160k is maybe a couple weeks of paid social budget for a company like starlink.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by adolph on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:08PM (#33602687)
Typically 3-6 that are connected together in any stage of ripeness. The Brady one is a notable exception.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by rglover on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:14PM (#33602040)
Yes. Nothing has changed. It's not quite the blind leading the blind but some variety of that idea.

A uses B uses C

C uses A but not B

B uses C

"Ooooo, A uses B I should use them for C!"

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by tomhoward on Monday November 14, 2022 @05:29PM (#33602240)
No, it’s a very different scenario.

Just selling to other early-stage startups doesn’t generate much growth/revenue or make you look like a solid business to a sophisticated investor. SaaS/B2B companies that make it big do so because they get huge numbers of small-medium businesses using their platform, not just startups - I.e, Slack, Stripe, Square, Shopify, Canva, Zendesk, Zapier, Segment.

Having other startups using your product is a good early source of product feedback and a strong signal to very early-stage investors, but that alone doesn’t give you the huge growth you need for bigger funding rounds.

It’s very different to the scenario PG was describing in the 90s; in those days, a startup would be founded, quickly IPO to raise several $million from unsophisticated retail investors, then spend much of it on advertising on Yahoo to drive traffic and artificially push the share price up. Hence when the music stopped in 2000 all that ad spend dried up and Yahoo’s share price crashed.

All those companies I mentioned above are going fine; slowed growth, sure, but they have real businesses with broad customer bases well beyond the startup ecosystem, so they’re all able to continue operating and doing OK.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by rossdavidh on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @05:13PM (#33615822)
If, at bottom, they are all also accomplishing something, then it's ok that they are using each other's product. If the whole web of startups selling to other startups is not actually accomplishing anything much except burning VC cash, then it is in fact a problem (one which will be resolved soon, I expect).
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by physicsguy on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:47PM (#33601670)
I do think of this a bit when I see startups being the main customers of other startup’s products. For e.g. I’ve never in my career at big orgs and small orgs alike had authority to just go and purchase $50/dev/month on productivity tooling for my teams, so I’ve never quite worked out who is paying for these
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by mcintyre1994 on Monday November 14, 2022 @04:59PM (#33601852)
Ad-supported mobile games seem to work like this too, all their ads are for other free ad-supported mobile games. Also I downloaded a QR code scanning app and every time I tried to scan a QR code it showed me an ad for another QR code scanning app lol.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by gloryjulio on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:30PM (#33602955)
The whales foot the final bills though. Unlike the vc's money which goes through economical cycle, there will always be suckers for those gacha gambling games
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by conviencefee999 on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:32PM (#33602973)
Those whales are something else. That's all I'm going to say.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by robswc on Monday November 14, 2022 @11:20PM (#33605226)
I will _never_ understand sinking money into a mobile game like that. Blows my mind. Couldn't even be worth the effort.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by HWR_14 on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @12:19AM (#33605607)
There are two types of whales. Those who plow an objectively large but relatively (to them) small sum into the game are fine. Those who fell victim to psychological programming to feed every dollar in are not.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by conviencefee999 on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @06:16AM (#33607818)
Yeah, sure. Let's go with this. Wanna buy a 250 dollar cash card for Arbys?
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by robswc on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @11:22PM (#33618810)
Even if it cost a few dollars to me (to equal their $10,000 for example) I just wouldn't do it. Just feels like I'm being taken for a ride... which doesn't feel good haha.

Same way with games I enjoy. I never tend to buy the "skins" or "cosmetics" unless one _really_ clicks with me.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by Firmwarrior on Wednesday November 16, 2022 @12:01PM (#33626447)
The trick is that you have a big chunk of your social graph in the game

You aren't spending $25 on video game shit, you're spending $25 on a fun skin to show your pals, or upgrades to help your friends beat some boss, or whatever

Once you get on that path, it can lead pretty normal people to some very dark places indeed

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by HWR_14 on Wednesday November 16, 2022 @11:19PM (#33634912)
At least those people are getting something out of game. Completionists/collectors having their OCD taken advantage of are going to an even darker place.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by robswc on Friday November 18, 2022 @06:45PM (#33664624)
Ah... I think you've given me the missing puzzle. I will say I don't get sucked into those "one up" wars (I really hate spending money on things I feel are gimmicks) _but_ this makes a lot more sense.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by fvdessen on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:37PM (#33603010)
That's because the easiest to get new customers for a mobile game are the ones who play similar games but not yet this one. The customers then play the game and buy more in-game currency than was paid for the ads.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by zinekeller on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:59PM (#33603239)
> Also I downloaded a QR code scanning app and every time I tried to scan a QR code it showed me an ad for another QR code scanning app lol.

Maybe you've already found a decent app (or realised that your camera has a built-in scanner), but the confusingly-named Barcode Scanner (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.google.zxi...) scans QR codes without fuss.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by mcintyre1994 on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @12:29AM (#33605666)
I should have been clearer, it’s more for debugging - so I need to read the content of the code rather than actually opening it. Eg if there’s an app configured for it then scanning with the built in camera just opens that app and never displays the content.

I’m on iOS, tried a few but they all wanted a subscription and were a terrible experience without it. So I wrote simplescan.vercel.app / https://github.com/mcintyre94/simplescan which does the job for me! Though Apple have broken using the camera when you save it to your Home Screen and open it as an app which is annoying.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by zinekeller on Tuesday November 15, 2022 @04:33AM (#33607114)
> I’m on iOS, tried a few but they all wanted a subscription and were a terrible experience without it. So I wrote simplescan.vercel.app / https://github.com/mcintyre94/simplescan which does the job for me! Though Apple have broken using the camera when you save it to your Home Screen and open it as an app which is annoying.

Ah, that explains it! Your usecase explains it, but I'm reasonably assuming Android because recent iOS versions have it built-in.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by xorcist on Wednesday November 16, 2022 @06:24AM (#33621492)
> recent iOS versions have it built-in

As does Android, just open the Camera app and point to the code.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by hammock on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:09PM (#33602704)
The housing market was the same way in 2008… in fact the entire global financial system is built that way. It’s what they mean when they say there are $60 trillion (or whatever) in derivatives out there, a long chain of the same assets rehypothecated over and over. It works though, mostly
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by kodah on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:18PM (#33602813)
I somewhat disagree with this on the surface. 2008 was a byproduct of banks holding ratings companies (Moody's and Standard and Poor's) hostage. The banks gave completely fraudulent ratings to loans, the ratings companies falsified ratings on packages, and eventually the house of cards came tumbling down when enough people tried to pull their money out.

There is a way to rate and classify derivatives appropriately, you just can't hold the ratings people hostage. I don't think there's a way to do that with crypto.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by highwaylights on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:31PM (#33602961)
This.

The banks weren’t to blame for 2008 any more than were the hoardes of FOMO buyers - in that they were both pretty culpable but neither of them were the real problem.

Lax regulation of the rating agencies was the real smoking gun. I’m not even sure it was ever addressed given all the banker witch hunts that ensued, and will next time too.

Dave Chappelle was on Saturday Night Live this past week and did a bit in the monologue about why we can’t have good regulations. Worth checking out:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_m-gO0HSCYk

(Starts at 8:50)

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by fortran77 on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:41PM (#33603055)
A lot of those "FOMO Buyers" lied on their mortgage applications and suffered no repercussions. In fact, many of them ended up doing quite well despite crying "Boo Hoo! I lost my house."

The spent their HELOC and never had to pay it back, they took the "first time homebuyers tax credit", and many of them lived in the house they "bought" for a year or two without paying any mortgage payment until the bank finally took it back. They never paid income tax on any forgiven debt, and they never paid income tax on the imputed income from living in a nice house for a couple of years rent-free until the bank finally was able to take possession of it.

Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by hestefisk on Monday November 14, 2022 @08:45PM (#33604202)
It was also a function of banks bundling and rebundling junk debt into “synthetic products”; hence the good observation on banks repackaging the same assets in different ways. The same as happened in crypto, in an even more sophisticated way that few people (at least retail investors) can’t really grasp.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by dreamcompiler on Monday November 14, 2022 @06:23PM (#33602876)
IOW reference counting cannot detect circular garbage.
Re:FTX’s balance sheet was bad by forgingahead on Monday November 14, 2022 @10:41PM (#33604987)
This is a rich observation, since (anecdotally) it seems like all the initial customers/traction for YC companies is from other YC companies.

Nothing wrong at all, it's good to bootstrap an initial customer base and get some user-feedback, but until the chasm is crossed to "real" customers, one could argue that this is the same case nowadays. So the dotcom time was no better nor worse than right now in terms of startup viability.