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Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by insightcheck on Thursday June 16, 2022 @12:55PM (#31768318)
Yep. On a related note, when I was younger, I searched for advice from experts for how to develop expertise in studying and productivity on Reddit. It led to lots of highly-upvoted advice (including stuff like supplements, largely with few real benefits besides placebo), popular blogs by influencers (like Scott Young), and popular self-help books.

However, the actual experts I knew in high school who later went on to great institutions like MIT or applied and got into extremely competitive investment banks didn't browse the internet very much, or relied on supplements and these books.

Similar to the ideas expressed in the submitted article, these people didn't spend time online reading blogs and Reddit, or blogging/self-promoting themselves. They generally were involved in a sport (track and field or squash), spent little time online, and spent a lot of time using a lot of paper studying.

They also were careful who they associated with as friends (they hung out with studious people). Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions (e.g. were professors or physicians), so they may have learned these strategies from them, versus inventing them independently.

Long story short: there is absolutely a culture of improvement that is primarily offline and less visible, because people either don't record it, or people do record it and it doesn't get upvoted or ranked highly on Google searches. Examples of recorded good advice appeared on HN recently, shared by computer scientist Donald Knuth who is also usually offline: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31482116

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:27PM (#31768668)
> Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions (e.g. were professors or physicians), so they may have learned these strategies from them, versus inventing them independently.

As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't. It doesn't even take financially or professionally successful parents. Many of my peers had middle-class parents working normal jobs who just loved unconditionally + put effort forward... the difference between them and those who had less than ideal upbringings is typically vast.

Having loving parents who teach, model, and promote healthy discipline habits is paramount for a kid's success. Unfortunately many children don't win that lottery.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by random-human on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:26PM (#31770563)
>> As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't.

This really gets lost in the traditional nuclear family argument. From personal experience, having both biological parents in the same house doesn't mean a healthy family environment, and no amount of moralizing is going to wish it into being.

Also overlooked is the impact one can have through simple acts of support and empowerment.

Had a High School teacher that let me into a photojournalism class that was already full (the school admins denied my schedule transfer after we had moved to the 'correct' side of the street (literally) and into an upper middle class school district). This teacher simply allowed me to be socially-weird-awkward-me and set a basic structure to thrive in (eventually winning state and national awards with the school newspaper). By giving me (and others) a chance to show we belonged and could compete helped build my self-esteem after it had been consistently torn down at home.

Didn't know it then, and doubt that teacher has any idea, but it changed the course of my life. I think I'm more a practical realist or even a cynic about life and society than I am optimistic - still, that experience reminds me to try and build others up and pay that empowerment forward

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:22PM (#31772628)
The data is conclusive on Single Parent vs. Two Parent and it's not even close.

The 'moralizing' is from those who want to equivocate.

This is also from deep life experience myself, with close family and colleagues.

In everything but the best scenarios: 'Everything Is Hard' in a single family household, whereas things 'Can Be Hard' in regular family scenarios.

I think a 'single mentor' can make a big difference, but nowhere near most of the other things put together.

And FYI I don't think parents provide very good 'professional mentorship' for the most part. They're there for other reasons.

i.e. if I found out that a mom was coming to pick up her kids laundry and leave some meals because 'Uni Exams' ... I will be $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation. Not a guarantee of anything, but an easy bet.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by carbonguy on Friday June 17, 2022 @12:27AM (#31774116)
> I will be[t] $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation.

I'd take the other side of that bet; in my experience, a parent who still feels the need to take on their adult child's domestic labor likely hasn't prepared them well for independence in other respects, such as managing their own education well enough to get good grades in university classes.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by michaelt on Friday June 17, 2022 @06:54AM (#31776408)
Eh, it's a bit culturally dependent.

My native culture prizes gender equality and self-reliance; has washer-dryers in every home; and doesn't care about wrinkled clothes. If a grown man from my culture needed help with his laundry, it's probably because his life's a shambles - if you're struggling with depression or something, that ain't a good sign for your exam success.

On the other hand, someone from a more patriarchal culture; where white goods aren't in everyone's reach; and they like clothes that need to be carefully ironed? That might just indicate they have the support of their very traditional parents.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:03PM (#31782800)
These responses are getting quixotic.

Nobodies 'native culture' prizes 'equality' to that extent, if you're from a culture we're all familiar with I'd fathom you're projecting pretty hard.

In some places in the world, there are some 'modern ideals' around those types of things, but it's more 'ideology' than 'culture'.

Students are not running around forlorn about not having their 'pressed khakis and dinner shirts needing pressing'. God forbid. The Mother who pops in with Rizotto & Scnitzel for their kid and her roommates, grabs their laundry, making sure they have their train ticket to 'Auntie Lucy and Uncle Chuck's Wedding' (because the date was changed!), gossips about their cousin who just got into Flight School in the Air Force. That's 'conscientious parenting' and extremely hard to do as a single parent at that level. 20-year-olds are barely adults, arguably, transitioning to adulthood.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by michaelt on Sunday June 19, 2022 @04:11AM (#31797310)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Maybe it's different in your country, or things have changed since I was in college.

In my experience teenagers are eager to establish their own identity, independent of their parents - to the point of being embarrassed, at some ages, to even be seen with their parents. Until they're grown enough that their relationship is more like one of equals. Most people over the age of 17 would be embarrassed if someone said they were merely transitioning to adulthood.

Leaving home means doing your own cooking, cleaning and laundry, and paying your own bills - in exchange for freedoms like exploring your sexuality; experimenting with drink and drugs; and occasionally staying in bed until noon.

Granted, some students choose a school close to home and some even keep living with their parents - but it's far more common to choose a school 2+ hours away from home. Having a parent drive two four-hour round trips to collect and return some laundry, to save their child 15 minutes loading and unloading the laundry machine would be very unusual.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:46AM (#31774506)
Helping a kid through exams is not 'doing their domestic labour' for god sakes.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by watwut on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:51AM (#31774892)
It actually very practically is. Also, doing your laundry is not the kind of work nor time investment that will make you fail exams.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by annyeonghada on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:07AM (#31774995)
The Hacker News ethos is "independence for independence sake" and receiving any kind of help (helping with laundry during exam = domestic "labour", lol) is a sign of moral failing.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by _glass on Monday June 20, 2022 @04:18AM (#31807642)
I second that. Major red flag. Exams can never be so bad as you can't do the laundry. I would have been insulted ... But maybe it's a cultural difference.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by ggm on Thursday June 16, 2022 @10:33PM (#31773526)
> if I found out that a mom was coming to pick up her kids laundry and leave some meals because 'Uni Exams' ... I will be $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation. Not a guarantee of anything, but an easy bet.

Narrow bet, yes. But I'd put $100 on them having high risk of entitlement issues and being an overweight office stinker who is a loner, because they never learned to wash, cook and manage their time. Not certain, but this is a pattern with risks: kids need to learn self reliance in the ordinary.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by random-human on Friday June 17, 2022 @08:27PM (#31786190)
>> The data is conclusive on Single Parent vs. Two Parent and it's not even close.

Not sure where single parents come into this? I have no strong opinion on it one way or another. I was referring to the the argument for having both biological parents in the house, that it doesn't automatically mean the home environment is healthy. It doesn't mean that having both biological parents in the home automatically equals support for the child. That is what is lost on that argument, that the actual physical and mental well being and support of the child is not automatically granted just because it's traditional nuclear family home.

There are other family structures that can more than provide for the physical, monetary, and mental health of the child. Coming from a traditional (US) Southern up-bring, the moralizing I heard is how all the social problems can easily be solved if the parents would just "work out" their problems. At that time, and still in places today, it was code for the wife to shut up and obey her husband - and if he beats her, what did she do to upset him? if he sexually assaults her, wait, just kidding, he cant because providing sex was her on-demand-duty. Is he beating, berating or sexually abusing the children? No one will ever know because if it's happening, the wife is socially blamed (if it leaks out) for failing her duties and no-one dares talk about it. Mostly the same for the wife treating a child in this way, except this time the blame and responsibility is rightfully hers, if it ever gets out. Having women work outside of the house really messed up this racket, thats a lot of self-serving control to lose for those that have lost it, or the promise of it, and the moralizing I hear because of it got louder. My point being, obviously our experiences of childhood and family are all different - however, this is the lens I, and many others, view through

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by kettleballroll on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:42AM (#31774826)
> Didn't know it then, and doubt that teacher has any idea, but it changed the course of my life.

Reach out to him and let him know. It's these kinds of feedback that can really, really make a person's day, and it's what every engaged teacher dreams of/works for.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by random-human on Friday June 17, 2022 @07:47PM (#31785933)
I had tried over the years and even went back to the school, when I visited the city a number of years after. It was a large school and turn over was common. Not to date myself, but this was decades ago - they would be near or in their 90's and a very common name.

Maybe it worked out better this way, it keeps me honest - like the lack of closure keeps me from storing it away and forgetting the lesson in it.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by pvarangot on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:20PM (#31769251)
I tell myself it's the difference between starting adulthood at 14 or whenever your family fails you, and starting it at 24 or 26 after college. The extra years of "streetwise" usually come at an expense of early onset of burnout, for various reasons. Leaving your shell with the energy to take over the world at 26 usually results in more productive endeavors than when you are a teenager.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by annyeonghada on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:12PM (#31770411)
>The extra years of "streetwise" usually come at an expense of early onset of burnout

I almost cried reading this sentence. I've never realized how my precocious adulting wasn't healthy: every adult compliments you about how "mature" and "responsible" you are. You're actually just anxious because you paternal responsibility on yourself: I had to basically raise myself. The cost of this "independence" has been that, at 27 I feel like a 50 years old with multiple regrets: as a simple, non threatening example, I watched an anime episode or played a video game for the first time as a 25 years old. I've never learned how to relax, or how to have faith in the future for that matter. And it hasn't been positive: life is becoming more and more heavy on my shoulders.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by zemvpferreira on Friday June 17, 2022 @05:45AM (#31776019)
There's still time, friend. If you have the means, see a therapist. You can undo plenty of damage before it undoes you, and keep the good from your forced growth.

Wishing you the best.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by scohesc on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:41PM (#31783273)
Hey cool, are you me?

26 years old with a father with Asperger's (with the anger issues and emotional non-understanding that comes with it), an over-bearing mother who sheltered me from pretty much everything crippling my social and personal skills growing up preventing me from getting help when I needed it - now I'm playing perpetual catch-up with both my personal life (social/romantic relationships), and the untreated mental problems I've been suffering from - I'm finally realizing the problems I've been beating myself up about through my whole life are not really my fault and I should have gotten help with my issues much much earlier.

I can only wonder what life would have been like if I would have stood up for myself much earlier and gotten the help I need - despite the repeated claims from both parents that I'd ruin the family and rip everybody apart if I did try to get help.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:33PM (#31769389)
Agree.

> The extra years of "streetwise"

Let's acknowledge exactly what "streetwise" is... it's the ability to operate in unsafe and not ideal environments in a way that maximizes personal safety.

It's a privilege to not have to be "streetwise" in regards to your parents/upbringing. So many kids are just out there trying not to get their asses beat only to get steamrolled by a crippled education system that has no resources to help them.

The setback that comes along with "streetwise" is immense

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by dvtrn on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:03PM (#31769682)
“setback”

Interesting. I was nodding in somewhat agreement until this, because as a city kid I don’t see it as a set back, just another tool in the utility belt of life.

That said, if all one has are ‘street-smarts’ (just like if all one has is ‘book-learning’) well, it may just mean the pivot point is they’re just gonna have a different calculus for getting by, than someone on the opposite end.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @06:13PM (#31771665)
I'm contextually referring to those kids who have to learn "street-smarts" in the home as a survival mechanism. The same "street-smarts" you're valuing should never be something that is required of a child in their home, against their parents.

When it is a constant in your life to stay "street-smart" it is a setback because it drowns out other intelligence - this happens with abusive parents.

Although related, I am not referring to the traditional city kid's need for some "street smarts" - I'm referring to unsafe environments at home/with parenting which I specifically stated in parent comment:

> Let's acknowledge exactly what "streetwise" is... it's the ability to operate in unsafe and not ideal environments in a way that maximizes personal safety.

> "streetwise" in regards to your parents/upbringing

---

My overall point is if one has to get "street-smart" because of what is happening at home... that's heinous because children should be safe, and I 100% see it as a setback inflicted on the child.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by josephg on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:11PM (#31772135)
Exactly. The complex part about it is that our survival strategies often express themselves as some of our greatest strengths too. For example, to feel safe in my home as a kid I learned to actively, constantly monitor the emotional state of the people around me. That strategy as a child makes me really good at therapy or therapy adjacent roles, because tracking someone’s emotional state is a skill I’ve been practicing for decades.

The downside is I don’t know how to turn that off. Or to put it in other terms, I don’t have the capacity to choose whether I track other people’s emotional state or not. Tracking people’s emotional state all the time is exhausting, and distracting. When I’m doing that I’m not in touch with what I want or need in that moment. Growing up for me (with the help of a good therapist) currently involves learning to put that down. And it’s terrifying.

Basically every survival strategy also gives us superpowers. But it’s ok - we get to keep those superpowers even after we’ve healed those wounds.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by 789itsfine on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:06PM (#31772504)
This is where terms like "cycles of poverty/abuse", "equality of outcome", "welfare", and the like come into play, erroneously or not. Although it may vex a not-insignificant number of people: if one accepts that the state of the parent's life largely determines the state of the life of even the most talented or determined youth, it must also be accepted that any useful intervention is going to assist the parents in concert with the child. In fact, if we accept that there is a sort of psychosocial inheritance from even our dead forebears, we must also see to the rectification of their troubles, as much as we may be able to.

I think we all know what we're talking about when we use terms like "street smarts" and "streetwise" instead of "common sense" or "vigilance" or "poise". So, then, I'm hoping that there's clarity with regards to the kinds of policies the above statements, if accepted, should lead us to support. I'm trying not to state them directly because their utterance tends to lead to a kneejerk reaction; let's see if some rhetorical remove is helpful in quelling passions.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by iratewizard on Thursday June 16, 2022 @10:35PM (#31773539)
I can definitely see it being true in some cases, but in software I strongly disagree. I'm speaking as someone who started programming for clients at 15 and am poised to retire at 33. Everyone starts slowing down after 25. The extra years learning by experience gave me a leg up that was completely unmatched by others. It opened a ton of doors that shouldn't exist for a lower income kid with no opportunity for college.

Chess is a more extreme example. Grandmasters regularly play their best games in their late 20s for a reason. Super grandmasters all started playing around the same age.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:26PM (#31772650)
I see what you mean, but let's not confuse 'productive' with 'lucrative'.

Even a lot of people with seemingly 'good jobs', I would argue, are not necessarily providing a ton of material value.

For example, I'm coming to the point where I believe the vast majority of 'Data Science' is 'Business Academia' and a giant pile of over-optimization and busy work.

The surpluses are concentrated in groups that have power, but those dollars are not necessarily used to maintain or support those systems directly, rather, they become applied R&D shops.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by borroka on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:18AM (#31774665)
Data Science is a poor term (unfortunately, the right one, statistics or statistical modeling, was deemed to be "unsexy"), but the expertise is certainly very relevant in today's data-driven businesses. Think predictions, forecasting, clustering, A/B experiments, recommender systems. Yes, some parts of what's commonly called Data Science can also be called Machine Learning, then maybe Deep Learning can be called AI, and in the end it seems that whatever choice we make with definitions, it is largely a mess anyway. And, on the top of that, the definitions are situational.

There is certainly a lot of busy work in DS like there is a lot of busy work in any non-critical pockets of operations, software engineering included.

I don't know what "over-optimization" means. If it means that, for instance, that the accuracy provided by the models is greater than the business needs, sometimes that's true and I agree. But are other parts of the business at fault for not being, broadly speaking, responsive enough or it is an "over-optimization" problem?

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Friday June 17, 2022 @12:01PM (#31780186)
'Over optimization' means that a lot recommendation systems, A/B tests, forecasts in business are nearly irrelevant, or rubbish i.e. a lot of cost for very marginal value add. Such a small margin that it's within variance of what might even be considered a positive outcome.

There are few business that have the kind scale in which a lot of that will be hugely useful (at high degrees of sophistication), let alone, afford the teams of researchers. Most of the optimizations are low hanging fruit which can be achieved via some kind of basic algorithm.

I believe you could nuke Snowflake and all their giant lakes of historical data and the world would not skip a beat.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by borroka on Friday June 17, 2022 @12:58PM (#31781064)
This is take I don't agree with on a real problem, which is the usefulness of data science in modern business, and for which processes in the business.

I try to explain.

Recommender systems add tremendous value, millions when not billions in revenue, to any retail business, streaming business. Is it by chance that all the online retailers had to set up a recommender system?

A/B tests are not needed? If A/B testing and actions taken looking the results would not be useful, don't you think that business would know it?

Forecasts in business are nearly irrelevant, or rubbish, you say. Like in the sense that in complex systems is irrelevant to know what's going to happen next, that is better just to play it along at best? Having worked in companies in media, retail, healthcare, and telco for which forecasting is crucial for planning the use of resources, negotiation of contracts etc., this comment is off-base.

Going from abstract to practical, I have worked recently with one telco giant on one of the services they offer. Their forecast of subscribers done by drawing a straight line that follows the latest data is making them leave tens of millions on the table each year. I proposed to make some A/B testing on their "coupon" strategy and they were not interested, preferring to send a "coupon" to everybody and their grandfather because they did not want to study for a week how to set up an experiment. It is mostly laziness. Clearly to know if A/B testing is working or not (say increase engagement, revenue etc.), one has to try it. But they don't, because they are mentally lazy.

One thing I agree with is that most legacy business are not ready to adopt a data-driven modern way of doing business, due to stiff processes, old-timers that would like to go on with their business like they were doing 30 years ago, and general fear of changing.

The fact that the legacy businesses are still "working" may give the impression that all these data-driven "baloney" is subtracting rather than adding to the business. Why do we need forecasts, they say, I cannot believe that these people want to use data, isn't our expertise enough? Don't you see we are the still among the 5 top companies that do what we do?

But their position in the market is not due to sound business practices, but due to their dominant position in the market. But then the dominant position goes away and the old-timers finally recognize that A/B testing, forecasting etc. combined with domain-knowledge are a plus for the business.

Maybe you don't need 1,000 DS, maybe you need 20 (practitioners, not "researchers"), that depends on the business. Clearly the mom and pop business does not need any data science.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by LAC-Tech on Thursday June 16, 2022 @11:50PM (#31773919)
Many of my peers had middle-class parents working normal jobs who just loved unconditionally + put effort forward... the difference between them and those who had less than ideal upbringings is typically vast.

I think it's definitely a starting handicap, no doubt about it. But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful.

Without getting too touchy feely - I definitely had un-supportive, unstable, conditionally-loving parents. Was it a setback? Yes. Would I be financially ahead of where I am now had they been better? Probably. But you know what, I'm doing alright. Maybe not by HN silicon valley standards well ahead of the curve in my little first world country. Never lost ambition even if I stumbled a lot along the way.

So yeah if you're younger, and reading this, and a bad childhood is still messing with your mind - please don't think all hope is lost. It will be harder but not impossible.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Karrot_Kream on Friday June 17, 2022 @01:09AM (#31774333)
> But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful.

If they're reading this, they're already the type of person trying to find success. It's important to remember that a lot of these results about families and finances are _statistical_. There are a myriad of other factors, whether known or not, that lead to success and anyone reading this who thinks they aren't cut out for success should never let that get to them.

I also grew up in a similar family to you, but (other than the crazy amount of times I've gotten lucky) I distinguished myself from my peers in my income-depressed area by being excited and interested in trying to get out of my circumstances. Most didn't. So if you're reading this and worried you aren't as far ahead as your peers, don't. The fact that you're worried will go a long way.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by annyeonghada on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:11AM (#31775025)
>by being excited and interested in trying to get out of my circumstances.

There are a lot of people who are "excited and interested" and never amount to anything because of the above mentioned "circumstances" that you were able to overcome, given a series of factors: natural predisposition, hard work, luck, gravity of the initial conditions and so on. Textbook survivorship bias.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Karrot_Kream on Friday June 17, 2022 @04:04AM (#31775378)
I acknowledged the role that luck played in my post, I'm fully aware that I'm a survivor. Unless you're saying my insight is incorrect, I'm simply saying what I think will improve the odds, not guarantee victory. I'm not sure why you're replying to me about this.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by throwaway0a5e on Friday June 17, 2022 @06:43AM (#31776331)
Where does personal agency end and circumstances begin?

A good work ethic isn't "luck". If someone has a good work ethic it's because the people in their life when they were growing up worked their butts off to give it to them. People don't escape poverty because of luck (look at lottery winner outcomes). They escape poverty after about three decades of hard work toward that goal, usually spread across multiple generations.

>Textbook survivorship bias.

Textbook "doesn't fit my narrative, find a way to discount it" bias.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jodrellblank on Wednesday June 22, 2022 @02:05PM (#31839614)
If being born to a wealthy family is "luck" then being born to a family who will work their butt off to give you a good start is also "luck".

> "Where does personal agency end and circumstances begin?"

If it's "I choose to work harder", it's personal agency. If it's "we're voting away support systems because I turned out OK and you should just work harder" it's not.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by dfxm12 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:29PM (#31769349)
I think part of this that is important enough to be individually specified is that knowing you have parents who will keep a bed for you and put food on the table for you in case you take a (business, career, whatever) risk and it doesn't pay off as well as you had hoped is a huge advantage.

Not having to worry about that stuff, whether it's immediately after graduating from high school or college or when thinking about taking all your money and investing it in yourself/your new business venture is liberating.

Of course, this require two things of the parents, to put forth the effort like you say, and also to have the means to support a dependent.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:37PM (#31769418)
You're afforded way less risk when you don't have a safety net. There's also the emotional part of still being accepted even though you stumble... without parents you're missing a literal cornerstone of support
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by plonk on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:48PM (#31768899)
> Many of my peers had middle-class parents working normal jobs who just loved unconditionally + put effort forward... the difference between them and those who had less than ideal upbringings is typically vast.

Do you mean their career success, or their personalities in general?

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:10PM (#31769169)
Both.

Positive upbringings helped those folks navigate everything in life better from simple chores like laundry, to relationships, to school, to careers... etc.

People are more healthy when they're in an environment that promotes emotional/educational growth vs. when they're forced into a survival mentality. Those who had the opportunity to grow in safety have an easier time socially vs. those who had to navigate turbulent childhoods.

Much of it is just trust

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by creakingstairs on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:59PM (#31772455)
I always didn’t understand how some of people were so positive/nice all the time and I thought they were really good at faking it. Then one time I spent a bit of time with their family and immediately understood why.

> Much of it is just trust

You are absolutely right. There was so much trust between the kids and the parent. You could tell from the way they act and talk around each other. That experience was very enlightening for me.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by a9h74j on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:43PM (#31772769)
> navigate everything in life better

Presumably there are many factors. One worth considering could be "frustration tolerance" as a construct or capability.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by new_stranger on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:11PM (#31769175)
Not OP, and just opinion, but I've seen markedly different career and personality/friend/family success. They seem like talented happy people able to take on a wide variety of challenges and do well.

The friends with troubled upbringing often do find success in one area of life, but they seem unstable overall and often crash or stall in multiple other areas.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by agumonkey on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:19AM (#31774670)
Family lineage is a strong force in personal life and society too. The emotional baggage inherited forbids a lot of people to live fully or even healthy.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by eru on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:47AM (#31774862)
Btw, your observations are perfectly compatible with parental support not actually doing anything for you, and everything being genetic.

The kind of parents who are organised enough to give you support, or probably also the kind of people who give their kids the genes to be organised and productive.

It's still a lottery in either case.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by _blu on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:55AM (#31774917)
That's not actually true. If you look at personality tests based on Big 5/Neo-Pi, which are the most accepted in psychology, scores on conscientiousness and the underlying factors like "order" can be completely opposite to the parents
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by annyeonghada on Friday June 17, 2022 @03:12AM (#31775034)
>can be

Yes, "can". Because we are not clones of our parents. It doesn't mean that conscientiousness hasn't something like 60-80%of hereditability.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by _blu on Monday June 20, 2022 @02:31AM (#31806979)
again, that's not true. It can be argued that it can't be proven beyong 50%, which means that it's a toss-up and parents with low conscientiousness have children with high scores. Also, this trait is not indicative to success, even if it correlates. Too high is also a negative, just as too low is.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by pseudalopex on Saturday June 18, 2022 @01:07AM (#31787379)
Studies say 20-70% for different measures.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by mathattack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:30PM (#31768702)
Yes. Generally people giving advice publicly are in the advice business, not the business on which they are advising. I worked with a Salesperson who got fired for non-performance, who then reinvented themselves as a Sales guru by publicly giving tons of advice.

People who are experts in their business (as opposed to being advice folks) tend to give it quietly 1 on 1 to people they trust. It’s a Close Friend game rather than an Acquaintance game.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by fleddr on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:02PM (#31770286)
Kind of like a dating "expert". The only way to become such expert is to date a lot, which means you're not very good at dating in the first place. That is, if we assume that the point of dating is to efficiently find somebody for a long term relationship.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Xeronate on Thursday June 16, 2022 @05:44PM (#31771363)
That's a bad assumption to make. Plenty of people just want to have fun dating.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by fleddr on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:40PM (#31772331)
Fine, change the term to "relationship expert". If you're good at maintaining a healthy romantic relationship, you'll have two, three, but optimally even one in a lifetime. That doesn't make you an expert, it still is the norm.

If instead you had 30 relationships, whilst for sure you had a lot of experience, I wouldn't really trust your advise as an "expert".

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Xeronate on Thursday June 16, 2022 @09:24PM (#31773033)
Sure. I was mainly concerned with the idea that most people are dating for marriage which I don't think is the case, at least under age 30.

But I think it's possible to be a relationship expert even with one or two real relationships. Two sets of people that have been married to only one person are not necessarily equally happy or fulfilled. A person could also make relationships their personal interest and spend a lot of time thinking about the topic on top of their lived experience which might make them more capable of giving advice.

I think it's wrong to say anyone giving advice isn't worth listening to.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by astrange on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:28PM (#31772247)
The problem is that if you want to get married, you should take advice from someone who only ever had to go on one first date, not someone who keeps going on them.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by manmal on Thursday June 16, 2022 @07:40PM (#31772332)
> Generally people giving advice publicly are in the advice business, not the business on which they are advising

Twitter has lots of tech advice, and most of these authors don’t give advice for a living. People like John Carmack regularly share how they achieved things.

Authoring a book or hosting a podcast is btw often not a great deal from an ROI perspective. It could help you get hired, but it’d be way easier to just study leetcode instead.

I think you could cut people and their intentions a bit more slack.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by hbn on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:45PM (#31768872)
"Those who can, do; those who can’t, teach."
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Uehreka on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:08PM (#31770361)
As a former teacher who is currently by all accounts a fairly capable software developer, this saying drives me up a wall.

I took 2 years out of my life to work for almost nothing so I could share my love of math and programming with the next generation. That I eventually gave in and moved into software engineering to make money says far more about my lack of altruism than my competence then or now.

But forget me, I taught in a cushy city post, I know some people in the peace corps (I taught abroad) who are still in the game, teaching math and English out in the sticks, sometimes having to build or maintain their own school buildings and learning the local language with no assistance. The idea that the defining trait of teachers is a lack of competence is laughable.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by zhengyi13 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:55PM (#31768988)
Please don't perpetuate the misuse of this phrase, which is so often used to denigrate those with expertise and desire trying so hard to pass them on.

Consider the possibility, say, in a guild context: those who can, do. They work for the guild, and do whatever the guild does. Those who can't, from age, infirmity, injury: they teach, passing on knowledge and wisdom.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by photik on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:07PM (#31769729)
In my experience this is likely one half of a principle in which there are at least as many examples of people who can do things really well, but have no idea how to pedagogically transmit the building blocks of their domain understanding to others in a tractionable way.

Maybe a more wholistic take on this is something like:

'Those that can't do, teach, and those that can't teach would really be doing everyone a huge favor if they would just go do somewhere.'

If this is a more complete take, it suggests to me that the master/apprentice paradigm existed for so long for a reason; masters have spent their lives specializing narrowly, not necessarily transmitting their understanding, thus the deconstruction of their expertise is only accessible via osmosis over time, because essentially they can't teach.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bombcar on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:01PM (#31768400)
It's part of the reason the self-help and diet book section is so large; people love the idea that they can get what they want with one weird trick; but the reality is it's not very complicated, it's just hard.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by dgb23 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:23PM (#31768626)
I think in many cases it might be hard but in an unfair way. I think some people are just wired differently. It is easy for them to stay focused and disciplined for longer, so they never worry about it or try to seek help and just do the work. People who do seek help often have some weaknesses that they cannot seem to overcome by themselves. They are vulnerable and they can be exploited by snake-oil salesmen. Some get stuck that way in a perpetuating, self indulging loop.

However there are people who have gotten help and made real progress. Think of some of the hardest things one can do: dealing with addiction, overcoming crippling fear, radically changing bad habits etc.

There's people who were weak and gotten strong. Some of them read self help books, some found social support. That's were the focus should be, not on the people who always walked the happy path and just "worked hard". Overcoming hopeless situations, stigma, bias, ego. That's actually hard.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by folkhack on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:55PM (#31768990)
I was a smoker for many years... everyone in the family smoked - father, mother, and brother. I was a dumb kid in an industrial town in Iowa - constant opportunity and social pull to consume nicotine.

After awhile I didn't want to be a smoker anymore and found a self help book - "Allen Carr's Easy Way To Stop Smoking." Friends of mine suggested it, and I found a PDF and read it during a dead afternoon at work.

Instead of focusing on the "hard" trope of quitting smoking it presented it as easy - hence the title. It framed the habit for exactly what it was, a drug addiction, but it never talked harshly to you about how you became a nicotine addict or the quitting process. It focused on telling you exactly what to expect if you decide to quit, and then gave you a positive framework to help overcome the effects of quitting. The overall message was always "think of how much you're going to gain by quitting... health, money, etc."

It worked, I am no longer a nicotine addict. I don't think I would have had the capability to quit without some mental reframing which that book 100% helped me accomplish.

> That's were the focus should be, not on the people who always walked the happy path and just "worked hard". Overcoming hopeless situations, stigma, bias, ego. That's actually hard.

Agree.

There's always the "work hard" narrative and I find it's often coupled with a discrediting attitude like OP's comment. The effect of that attitude demotivates more than it helps. As cheesy as it was I found the tools to fix my nicotine addiction in a self-help book ha

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bombcar on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:08PM (#31769733)
That was the point I was getting at - the book presented you information in a way that helped, but you still did the hard work of actually implementing it.

Almost all diets work if you stick to them, and almost nobody does. People want behavioral changes to be easy but they're not - they require hard work.

Perhaps more diet books would be successful if they treated it as a food addiction instead of a "eat healthy to look sexy".

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by 1123581321 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @10:12PM (#31773390)
There probably is no getting to you, but “the book presented you information in a way that helped” is the whole point of a self-help book, and when someone arrives at a better understanding of themselves or a project via presented information, it does get easier for them.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by FredPret on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:22PM (#31769269)
Thank the gods for Allen Carr. He helped me too.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by borroka on Friday June 17, 2022 @02:25AM (#31774717)
I was a smoker for many years. One day, I decided to stop. I did not read books or got any other support. I did not want to die of lung cancer (crossing fingers!).

I now occasionally a smoke a cigarette (say, once every month or two), something that, according to the vast majority of many ex-smokers, appears to be almost impossible to do.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by insightcheck on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:38PM (#31768784)
>"There's people who were weak and gotten strong. Some of them read self help books, some found social support. That's were the focus should be, not on the people who always walked the happy path and just "worked hard". Overcoming hopeless situations, stigma, bias, ego. That's actually hard."

Absolutely. I've also personally benefitted from some self-help books, though I've read many other self-help books that seemed to be useful at the time, but were ultimately forgettable and likely a distraction from issues I would have been better off directly taking of.

A good heuristic I've found is to prefer self-help books written by academics over influencers (anyone with a marketing background or associated with the word "guru"). Good books included those written by BJ Fogg (professor at Stanford) on habits, David Burns on useful versus self-defeating beliefs (psychiatrist and professor also affiliated with Stanford), and to a less extent Cal Newport (computer science professor at Georgetown).

As a side note, Cal Newport's advice was generally good, but — though I may be misremembering — his advice appeared to mostly be useful for people who already have a very clear goal and strong motivation about what to do, and didn't really struggle with self-defeating beliefs, close relationships that were unhealthy in life, or people who had fallen behind in mathematics skill development.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by nradov on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:44PM (#31768865)
I'm skeptical about most people being wired differently. Almost anyone can greatly increase their ability to stay focused and disciplined. Those are learned skills and mainly a matter of building good habits. But sometimes people need to fail hard first due to lack of focus and discipline in order to gain the motivation necessary to improve.

https://davidgoggins.com/book/

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by kayodelycaon on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:18PM (#31769838)
I sincerely hope ”almost anyone” doesn’t include the vast number of people with a mental disability that severely affects executive function.

About 2.8% of the US population has a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. (In a wider study including other countries, the average is 2.4%) I have no reason to doubt this because I have far too many people I knew before my diagnosis who have since told me they have an extended family member who are bipolar. And not the “oh they have a diagnosis” kind, but people who destroy their own lives and those of the people around them. I was shocked how common it is.

And this is just bipolar. There are many other mental and physical problems that affect the ability to have discipline if they just worked on it.

Edit: I should state I definitely believe focus and attention is a skill, but you can’t effectively use a skill when your tools are broken. Good luck racing a car that’s disassembled in the garage.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bombcar on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:48PM (#31768900)
There are people who are "wired differently" but as with many things, there's majority who insist they are and it's the source of their failings don't actually have a major issue.

It's a similar thing with dieting, the number of people who have gone to the trouble of actually counting every calorie they eat, restricting themselves to a certain amount to lose weight, and not lost weight is pretty small. But the number who tell themselves that they've done it is much higher.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by closeparen on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:59PM (#31769041)
Several times in my life I have seen what I thought were crises of willpower turn on silly contingent circumstances.

* Huge procrastination problem in college melted away as soon as I started working 9-5 in an office.

* Couldn't run 5 minutes, until I incidentally started wearing a smart-watch, tried running again, and noticed the heart rate monitor telling me to slow down.

* Doom-scrolling trances easily broken by shutting down the computer or putting the phone out of arm's reach.

I don't think any particular advice in the self-help genre is likely to be true, but these "one weird trick" style solutions do keep on working for me.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by mmcgaha on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:39PM (#31768795)
Sometimes there really is a "one weird trick" that can help people. I used to get stuck on problems and it would cripple my productivity. A programmer with two decades more experience than me noticed what I was doing and gave me the best advice of my career.

If you are interested in the solution, you can signup for my . . .

Seriously though the answer was to just do something else. Don't sit around thinking about the problem; just do something else and the problem will be easier to solve the next time you try to solve it.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bombcar on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:45PM (#31768869)
That's the problem - the self help books often have good actionable advice just like the diet books do; but it can be summed up in a few paragraphs. Most of the book is often trying to convince someone it's worth doing, or providing ways to get around procrastination, etc that might prevent it.

But as you've shown, often a good mentor can do just as well, or better.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by pseudalopex on Saturday June 18, 2022 @01:02AM (#31787362)
Many people reading self help books would prefer a good mentor. Books are easier to find.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bluedino on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:25PM (#31769308)
>> Sometimes there really is a "one weird trick" that can help people. I used to get stuck on problems and it would cripple my productivity. A programmer with two decades more experience than me noticed what I was doing and gave me the best advice of my career.

If you could make that part about 5 minutes longer you'll have a future in YouTube commercials

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by criddell on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:33PM (#31769983)
The wait until tomorrow advice works well when learning a musical instrument too (at least in the beginning). I still really can't play my guitar, but when I'm trying to learn something new, I work on the hard part until I stop making progress then take a break. Often, the next day I can get a little further.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bluGill on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:42PM (#31770065)
Even if there is more than one trick, all you can really apply at once is one. So best to look for a trick that seems like it should work and make it a habit. If that still isn't enough, then look for another. Sometimes you need to break a bad habit that results from this, but often it is many good habits combined that you need.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bena on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:07PM (#31769147)
This largely tracks with my own opinions on certain things. Mostly why moderation eventually fails and how social interaction doesn't scale well.

People doing shit don't have time for bullshit.

If you have hours to dedicate defending your pet fan theory online, you clearly aren't using those hours to do anything meaningful. And I'm not talking side-hustle-gotta-make-that-bread kind of stuff, I'm talking about just more fulfilling pursuits in general. Learning an instrument, tinkering with projects with no other goal but messing around, reading, etc.

So while you think you may have "won" the argument about whether or not Superman can beat Wolverine, the truth is the other person left because you and the discussion in general wasn't worth their time. And they don't need your validation. They find fulfillment in the stuff they do outside of the internet.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by clairity on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:18PM (#31769841)
> "...the truth is the other person left because you and the discussion in general wasn't worth their time. And they don't need your validation. They find fulfillment in the stuff they do outside of the internet."

yup. i almost never go back and forth more than a couple times with anyone here, because it's most common that the other person is bullshitting, and i don't really need or want that. if i argue a point, i want the other person to bring something new to the table that i didn't know before, not rehash tired old platitudes.

relatedly, experts don't need to claim for themselves the term "expert", and folks who start conversations with their credentials have already "lost" the discussion, so to speak. if your arguments can't stand on their own merits, proffering a credential won't help.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by duxup on Friday June 17, 2022 @12:38PM (#31780773)
The internet expert phenomenon is brutal.

I'll ask a question online and get a superficial answer. It gets all the upvotes or whatever because everyone else has heard some of the stuff in the reply. It's ... not always wrong, but also very generic / not REALLY an answer.

I really want to say "Yeah I watch the Discovery Channel too bro... I saw that episode, but that really doesn't answer my question, those circumstances don't necessarily cause that result." (Discovery Channel is probably outdated but it is often what I want to say).

I often come to HN because you can ask such a question and generally folks think it through a few steps before answering. Elsewhere it is internet expert hell...

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by JumpCrisscross on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:20PM (#31769250)
> these people didn't spend time online reading blogs and Reddit, or blogging/self-promoting themselves

Or they’re online, they’re just not talking about what they’re experts in. Because they don’t want to spend their free time teaching a 101 class.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by pvarangot on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:26PM (#31769319)
The main reason why I don't usually talk seriously about what I'm an expert in on Reddit is that I sometimes can't deal with the cringe from the replies, usually it's ok but it's been really bad a couple times and that just pushed me off. Now when I am commenting on something I consider myself an expert of it's usually jokes and sarcasm.

Reddit is seriously full of teenagers LARPing as adults, or adults stoned to the point where they basically are behaving like teenagers... not that I have anything against that. When you start seeing it like that it's much easy to get what you want from it, like when I realized The Economist is mostly idealist very smart mid 20s college graduates on their first serious job.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by JumpCrisscross on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:48PM (#31769531)
Places like HN and Reddit are fun for things one has an understanding of but not expertise in. You can hash out arguments, get corrected when wrong and genuinely learn from the experience. For matters I have expertise in, I know the other experts. They’re more rewarding conversation on those topics.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by Claude_Shannon on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:11PM (#31769767)
In their defence, often there's no way of telling who is expert and who is faking.

Though it applies to almost everywhere online.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by magic_hamster on Thursday June 16, 2022 @09:03PM (#31772905)
Sad as it may sound, your upbringing is the key to most things, while the opportunities given to you (mostly by your parents' financial ability) complete this picture.

When I took EE in University, everybody's parents were engineers or another form of STEM. Which also means they are not doing too bad in money and assets.

The best, most accomplished researchers I know all had a parent coming from a similar background, giving them extra lessons from a young age, so they were always a couple of years ahead of their class.

This stuff doesn't come from nowhere. Today I firmly believe that even a mildly talented person would go much further ahead with the right upbringing and opportunity than a potentially much more talented person who had to learn everything the hard way.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by CodeSgt on Thursday June 16, 2022 @09:12PM (#31772958)
I largely agree. I had a very bad upbringing, as did most of my childhood and teenage friends. I've just in the past year or two managed to "break the cycle", but it wasn't (isn't) easy.

Now that most people in my life are themselves successful professionals, getting glimpses into their family life and childhood is surreal. It's a completely different culture, typically a much, much, much healthier one. It's shocking how many people don't consciously acknowledge this fundamental chasm between people.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by nathias on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:08PM (#31768468)
reddit is a system where a guy with 100 IQ decides what is best for all, it isn't that suprising that it doesn't work well for anything more complex or nouanced
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by insightcheck on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:25PM (#31768647)
It's clear in hindsight, but a high school student with little life experience who sees a long text post with hundreds of upvotes and a couple awards can be an easy mark.

It's especially difficult because there is actually good advice mixed with the bad and unsubstantiated. I've taken good advice from certain comments (e.g. that led to the discovery of open courseware and actually quality resources on physical exercise programs).

But part of maturity is learning to be skeptical of advice independent of upvotes, so one can get the good advice while avoiding getting mislead. To answer quick questions, I try to search for articles from reputable newspapers first (to see if a verified expert interviewed by a journalist is quoted at length) and possibly HN's archives via Googling with site:news.ycombinator.com. For more complex questions and topics, I try to find book recommendations from Reddit that were written by academics or low-profile experts over influencers, and then reading about the topic at length (e.g. it's usually far better to learn about big social problems if curious through well-sourced books, versus any hot takes online, regardless of the popularity of these hot takes).

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by clairity on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:22PM (#31769882)
> "To answer quick questions, I try to search for articles from reputable newspapers first (to see if a verified expert interviewed by a journalist is quoted at length)..."

you just failed your own test. "reputable" and "expert" indicate you're offloading evaluation to others rather than doing the hard work yourself of discerning the validity or plausibility of those claims.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by insightcheck on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:36PM (#31770012)
Sure, but there's not enough time to be an expert at everything. Let's say I want to better understand how worried I should be about the US economy.

I could study economics textbooks, take online courses, and get a part-time degree in economics over hundreds of hours, read economics papers from journals and the NBER (and equivalent institutions), develop a reputation and a network of experts, and then develop my own analysis and debate with these experts.

Alternatively, I could accept that I'm a non-expert for this particular domain, read some in-depth analyses in the Financial Times (a better source than Reddit), realize I should be cautious and save more, and move on with my life.

If the subject is more important, e.g. I want to work on a months-long project that requires an understanding of a specific economic concept, it would be useful to search for reputable books related to that topic and then study them.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by clairity on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:53PM (#31770174)
the point is that those aren't "experts", but rather, reporters with differing motivations.

don't look for experts, look for arguments you can verify through your own experience and validate through your own thought experiments. don't reach for immediate judgment, but rather, leave questions open until the evidence is conclusive. the term "expert" is rhetorical at best, and manipulative in most cases. relying on experts is a surefire way to be misled.

as a side note, there's an entire branch of marketing dedicated to using social proof manipulatively.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by concinds on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:33PM (#31768741)
Agreed. In general:

1) Successful people tend to be found in selective environments. A website that lets anyone in will by definition be filled with junk, bored people, teens, and time-wasters. Since 'successful people' know this, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy (they know their peers aren't there).

2) Most professional peer connections are still offline. Want to know what your peers think about a recent paper? If you're established in your field you'll know them on a first-name basis and will just call them.

Twitter is the only exeption to both these rules, miraculously, though only to a degree.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by LeifCarrotson on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:22PM (#31768619)
Where 100 guys with 100 IQ decide what is best for all, which may or may not be better than one guy with 120.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by walkhour on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:54PM (#31768982)
This is indeed the relevant question. There are similar scenarios where the answer is the 100 guys, like some markets, that when organized centrally by "smart" people, they stop working.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by nathias on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:51PM (#31770147)
For contexts that can be exploited to benefit the one guy at the expense of other for sure. For contexts where there is no downside it depends, its good for broad research, bad for in depth content. The problem is there are hardly any places for the latter type of content anymore, because reddit took over with its subreddits that seem good fit for nieches and the price wasn't apparent in advance ...
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by LordDragonfang on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:21PM (#31768601)
I have to wonder whether the average IQ on reddit is higher or lower than the general population average, because based on my experience there, I could see arguments for either direction.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by monkeybutton on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:54PM (#31768977)
With 50M DAU its going to be the population average, no?
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by dan-robertson on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:08PM (#31769150)
There’s surely still some selection effects, eg younger (average iq scores have gone up over time), college-educated, more literate (ok this one is questionable for Reddit), and so on.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by nathias on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:53PM (#31770171)
I'm sure its average, but the self-reported IQ might be way higher ...
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by jollybean on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:17PM (#31772591)
" Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions"

Yeah that's 50% right there and 'learning strategies' is only a part of it.

The other 'strategy' is 'being rich' or 'connected' or knowing a few arcane insights that do not amount to 'competitive strategies' so much as 'inside knowledge'.

"Long story short: there is absolutely a culture of improvement that is primarily offline and less visible"

Let's not conflate 'climbing the social ladder' with 'improvement'.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by sharadov on Thursday June 16, 2022 @10:46PM (#31773620)
I disagree, it depends on the subreddit - a subreddit that discusses supplements is by it's very nature going to be populated with snake oilsmen selling remedies or doofuses who believe them.

Similarly self-help books.

You have provided examples of domains where charlatans are most likely to operate.

I have learned a lot from user communities in reddit and hackernews.

And hopefully contributed back as well.

There are folk who have domain expertise and have time on hand and are hungry to contribute.

You need to find them and pick their brains.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by insightcheck on Saturday June 18, 2022 @12:41AM (#31787308)
>“There are folk who have domain expertise and have time on hand and are hungry to contribute.”

There are great people willing to share who do exist, though there is a selection bias where experts with certain values and beliefs are far more likely to post than experts with minority views about technical subjects.

From the article on popular beliefs in online communities at the time: “Just because looking down your nose at C++ or Perl is the popular opinion doesn't mean that those languages aren't being used by very smart folks to build amazing, finely crafted software. An appealing theory that gets frantically upvoted may have well-understood but non-obvious drawbacks.”

The view expressed in the article, which I agree with, is that there are experts with minority views on technical topics, who are difficult to find on forums.

>“You have provided examples of domains where charlatans are most likely to operate.”

I agree that you’re unlikely to find these kinds of life advice on technical niche subreddits (like on r/compilers).

However, let’s say a user is a young person looking for life advice. This subject would typically be off-topic on r/compilers and similar forums, so it’s off to more lifestyle-oriented forums (like r/decidingtobebetter or r/selfimprovement).

>“a subreddit that discusses supplements is by it's very nature going to be populated with snake oilsmen selling remedies or doofuses who believe them. Similarly self-help books.”

This isn’t wrong, and there has since been more awareness of paid marketing on subreddit. However, it’s non-obvious to new users, especially young people. If legitimately useful comments get lots of upvotes, there’s an effect where the ones promoting self-help books and supplements seem credible too.

For lifestyle advice in particular, sticking to smaller technical communities may not yield useful discussion. Going to other online communities leads to the problem you’ve described. By process of elimination, it’s viable to start observing and talking with people in real life.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by simonebrunozzi on Friday June 17, 2022 @08:48AM (#31777310)
I came back to this thread the day after reading it, specifically to upvote your comment. It seems quite obvious, but it's brilliant nonetheless.
Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by hinkley on Thursday June 16, 2022 @08:59PM (#31772875)
It's practically a game for me at this point to just 'roll with it' when I have a raft of mutually consistent ideas, and 3 of them get upvoted, and the last one gets ignored completely, or once in a while downvoted to oblivion.

The most important lessons are the counterintuitive ones - if they were all intuitive, you wouldn't need to be taught them, and the pain and loss of figuring them out organically might be extreme. If someone is earnestly asking, you should hit them with some knowledge, not drop populist nonsense they can find on the front page of Google. But it can often be a case of subtlety - planting enough of an idea that they can chew on it and accept this new reality at their own pace, rather than blurting out the 'answer' that nobody likes to look at. Not unlike how explaining some great movies to people makes them sound unpalatable. Just watch it, you'll like it.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by tester756 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:47PM (#31768888)
>didn't browse the internet very much

I see it other way

Internet allows you to discuss everything you want with various people from your industry

I think it allows you to become better not only faster, but also makes you more aware of different perspectives

Why wouldn't you want to do so?

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by bena on Thursday June 16, 2022 @02:16PM (#31769219)
You realize what you did here, right?

You said you disagreed with the experiences of the OP and essentially the article.

Posited as evidence that your view was correct based on your opinion on what you perceive as the advantages of the internet.

Then treated your opinion as a fact that would be crazy to be argued against.

It's true. The internet does allow for easy communication between people. It does contain a whole lot of information. You can get the documents to most things. You can access most information quickly.

But that information doesn't require commentary. And it's not a guarantee that the people you want to talk to want to talk to you.

If I want to learn Rust, I don't go to a Rust forum, I look up the Rust documentation. If I want to know how to do something Rust, I search for the specific information. Oftentimes, my issue is a faulty assumption about how something works or not knowing the exact name of the method I want to call. Once again, that's not something I need personal interaction for. The very last thing I do, is ask people on the internet. Not out of any misguided misanthropy, but just because it's hardly ever needed.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by nescioquid on Thursday June 16, 2022 @03:21PM (#31769877)
I think it is reasonable to rebut the premise of an argument (in fact, if the reasoning of the argument is sound, that seems to be the only basis on which a rebuttal can be formulated).

Article Premise: [the internet provides] an intersection of the people working on interesting things and who like to write about it--and that's not the whole story.

Article Conclusion: Your time may better spent getting in there and trying things rather than reading about what other people think.

tester756: I think [the internet] allows you to become better not only faster, but also makes you more aware of different perspectives

Charitably reading, I understand tester756 to be saying that in fact, that intersection is broad enough that the article's conclusion doesn't readily follow.

Did tester756 provide enough of a warrant for the rebuttal? Maybe, maybe not. Frankly I don't think this article warrants a high degree of rigor to comment on it, though, so I think it's fine.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by tester756 on Thursday June 16, 2022 @04:17PM (#31770459)
>If I want to learn Rust, I don't go to a Rust forum, I look up the Rust documentation. If I want to know how to do something Rust, I search for the specific information. Oftentimes, my issue is a faulty assumption about how something works or not knowing the exact name of the method I want to call. Once again, that's not something I need personal interaction for. The very last thing I do, is ask people on the internet. Not out of any misguided misanthropy, but just because it's hardly ever needed.

How about scenerios like: you have 3 solutions to one problem, but you want opinion about which one is the best?

For example endless discussions about OOP / DDD / Microservices / SOLID / FP, etc.

>Then treated your opinion as a fact that would be crazy to be argued against.

That wasn't intended

My opinion is still just my opinion. I've spent years on various reddits/discords/hns/forums and I do really believe that you can get a lot out of those discussions

Internet here is just medium, it may be similar to talk with your colleagues, attending debate, etc.

Re:The silent majority of experts (2012) by vlunkr on Thursday June 16, 2022 @01:59PM (#31769047)
The point of the article is that experts don't always hang out on the internet. There's a small cross-section of people who are truly experts at something, and also blog or discuss it in online forums. So yeah, you can talk to people from the industry online, but how do you know if their advice is worth anything?