News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by coralreef on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:01PM (#28920447)
Gonna be controversial but one idea is the universal basic income, financed in part by capturing the value from the means of production (capital owners, technology creators) as they replace labour with machines.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by fennecfoxen on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:41PM (#28921041)
"Capturing the value from the means of production" unfortunately but unsurprisingly leads to chronic under-investment in the means of production, as those who would otherwise invest in capital are uninterested in seeing its value captured.

This road leads to poverty, not prosperity (and more inflation as more money chases fewer goods produced in fewer factories by fewer workers).

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by coralreef on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @02:24PM (#28921558)
I don't buy this. Trickle down economics is bullshit.

Investment happens anywhere there is a chance of positive return.

Investing in new technology either as an inventor/entrepreneur or dumb money still offers returns exponentially higher than anything else, should it work out.

There is a point where excessive taxation/regulation hurts innovation, but I don't think we're anywhere near that.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by jollybean on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:00PM (#28926269)
"Trickle down economics is bullshit."

It's been happening since the dawn of the industrial revolution.

The harnessing of fossil fuels and machinery should have put everyone out of work forever.

We used to be 85% living and working on farms, and now we're 5%.

In short, we found ways to make people way, way more productive, and the standard of living for the average person is astronomically higher today than it was 200 years ago.

I think special attention needs to be paid to accumulation of assets, and that this can definitely get out of hand (even as wages and standard of living rise, it can still be a problem), but overall, it's worked out.

Paradoxically, I still trust markets and regulation more than I do centralized control and distribution. The current US governments multi trillion dollar budgets come with all sorts of special requirements, usually of the social kind that can be liberally interpreted by institutions receiving the money (i.e. schools have to comply with our social view in order to receive the money, instead of just making sure that it's fairly spent).

For example, I think min. wage increases tend to be a better social measure because it's attached to actual production, and, it's generally not encumbered by some kind of employment and hiring ideology.

I honestly believe the tools are available to us, and we can make a ton of progress by just doing basic adjustments, closing loopholes, ensuring standards.

As an example, Healthcare reform of one way or another, even something that disentangled employment from Health Insurance, and somehow got 'pretty much everyone' covered one way or another, might yield gigantic side benefits with reduction of poverty and individual calamity. 50% of individual bankruptcies are Healthcare related. Imagine how much strife comes from that, and it's most unnecessary using a policy framework that we could apply today.

Especially things like offshore tax havens, tax loopholes, bogus charities etc. etc..

So much low hanging fruit, or at least, low-hanging from an ideological perspective.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by seventytwo on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:04AM (#28926627)
> markets *and regulation*

The key many Americans seem to forget.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by fennecfoxen on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @04:16PM (#28923195)
> Investment happens anywhere there is a chance of positive return.

I have a home solar-panel system to sell you. It will pay for itself in a mere 25 years. Now, normally, it'd pay for itself in 8 years, but taxes have raised the price. You will surely invest in this system anyway.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by coralreef on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @05:55PM (#28924287)
If the alternative energy sources are even more expensive, then yes, it makes complete economic sense for me to invest in this because it yields a positive return.

All you've done with this example is try to say that X is better than (X + tax), failing to identify the actual benefits and tradeoffs derived from the tax. Please at least try to be somewhat intellectually honest.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sanedigital on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @08:52PM (#28925576)
Right, but Homo Economicus doesn't really exist, and just because an action is "rational" from a purely economic standpoint, it doesn't mean that action will be taken by an actual living person. Disincentives sometimes have demotivating factors beyond their purely economic impacts.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by SantalBlush on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:44PM (#28925880)
When people are discussing economics within the framework of economic theory, it's a bit silly to invoke "Homo Economicus doesn't exist" this far down the thread in some apparent attempt to discredit one side.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sanedigital on Thursday October 21, 2021 @11:30AM (#28945884)
I disagree, painting policy issues with a simple brush of "calculate X & Y and see which is bigger" completely ignores the behavioural components at play. Homo Economicus might respond to financial incentives as expected, but in the real world they can motivate (or demotivate) in ways that aren't captured in those calculations.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by coralreef on Thursday October 21, 2021 @01:14PM (#28947695)
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by SantalBlush on Thursday October 21, 2021 @02:41PM (#28949135)
My point is that you seem to be applying your argument selectively. This whole thread is about "Homo Economicus".
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sanedigital on Tuesday October 26, 2021 @09:55AM (#29000407)
Disagree again, GP's comment was specifically reframing the conversation around an individual's actual ability to respond "rationally" in a real-world situation.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by asdff on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @02:13AM (#28927341)
I'd honestly be shocked if people with the means and interest to put in a solar panel system would care whether they made their money back in 8 or 25 years.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sokoloff on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:22AM (#28928140)
Why wouldn’t many of them care? The alternative investment for many people with means is the stock market. If I can make my money back on solar in 8 years, that’s roughly comparable to the long-run stock market returns, so it costs me little to sell $30K in stocks, buy a PV system, and feel like I’m doing something concrete to get cleaner energy.

Cut that return to a third of its previous value and I’ll leave my money in stocks and just buy electricity made from natural gas.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by asdff on Thursday October 21, 2021 @02:21PM (#28948785)
Most people don't try and min max every facet of their life. If it eventually returns on their investment relative to dirty energy, they are happy. There's also people who are given the option on their utility bill today to pay extra for renewably sourced energy, and they do it. People put up solar panels in Cleveland where its sunny for 80 days a year, they aren't getting a great ROI but they do it anyhow.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by actually_a_dog on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @05:07AM (#28928463)
There are non-financial benefits to having solar panels, such as the peace of mind in knowing your home largely runs on clean energy.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sokoloff on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @05:42AM (#28928714)
Agreed (and acknowledged above). I just think there are more people willing/able to pay a full lifecycle net price of $0 for that peace of mind than are willing/able to pay $20K for it.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by stale2002 on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:27PM (#28925777)
> Investment happens anywhere there is a chance of positive return.

Thats not how it works. Taking a higher percentage of returns, can leave the returns positive, but the expected value of risks negative.

EX: To make a simplified example, imagine that you can invest 10$, in an investment that has 50% chance of giving you an additional 11$.

That has a positive expected value. But if you put a 20% tax on the winning, now that investment no longer has a positive expected value, even though the returns in the wining case are positive.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by wjossey on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:34AM (#28926797)
Which is why in the USA you write off your losses. If you make 11 on 20 and lose 10 on 20, you pay taxes on 1 dollar.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by sokoloff on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:24AM (#28928153)
Individual investors’ ability to “write off” capital losses is limited to offsetting any gains plus $3K/ year (in the US).
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by imtringued on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:19AM (#28928119)
>This road leads to poverty, not prosperity (and more inflation as more money chases fewer goods produced in fewer factories by fewer workers).

You mean these people are so disgusted by the idea of taxation that they would abandon the business opportunity that has presented itself in front of them?

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by danaris on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:53PM (#28921172)
Cry me a river for the people who will be making only 300 million dollars a year in net profit, rather than 500 million.

This is the kind of thinking that has gotten us into this hole: "We have to do everything we can to appease the wealthiest, or they'll stop gracing us with jobs!"

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by fennecfoxen on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:59PM (#28921255)
Ah yes, this would be the “supply side doesn’t even exist” economics of 21st century meme politics.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by SantalBlush on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @08:52PM (#28925573)
Meme politics is pretending that only a binary exists between laissez-faire and communism.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by aeternum on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:44AM (#28926855)
The sad part is most of the presidential candidates seem be trying their hardest to turn that pretend into reality.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by thereare5lights on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:26PM (#28925770)
> as those who would otherwise invest in capital are uninterested in seeing its value captured.

There are only so many places you can park your money

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by seventytwo on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:00AM (#28926602)
Surely there’s a middle ground…
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by piva00 on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @02:37PM (#28921713)
Do you have any peer reviewed sources proving that? So far I only found ideological ones preaching the trickle-down economics demagogy.

Neoliberalism is a failed experiment, we now live in the results of this failure, 40 years after it started. We either address this failure or we let it roll until it sparks a revolution, either way it needs fixing.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by chii on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @10:51PM (#28926216)
> Neoliberalism is a failed experiment

how has neoliberalism failed?

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by vmladenov on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @01:43AM (#28927169)
It hasn’t. Global extreme poverty fell from 36% in 1990 to 10% in 2015. It’s really frustrating to engage with people who categorically refuse to acknowledge positive developments.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by esailija on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @03:25AM (#28927777)
Global poverty has improved mostly due to China, which is total opposite of neoliberal policy (privatisation, deregulation, austerity [allowing rich to pay less taxes while taking the necessary tax money via cuts to social programs] etc).

And if there is any improvement in neoliberal poor countries it is because of the definition of "extreme poverty" used is based on nominal dollar value disconnected from material reality.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by thow-58d4e8b on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:53AM (#28928354)
In other news that are never mentioned in western media - the top three countries based on long-term economic growth are Laos, Vietnam and China. The only three countries that are both enmeshed in global trade, while also being run by communists. Surely just a coincidence
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by dragonwriter on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @05:09AM (#28928470)
> In other news that are never mentioned in western media - the top three countries based on long-term economic growth are Laos, Vietnam and China.

I’m having trouble finding a data set and definition of “long term” that supports that top-3 ranking, care to share yours?

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by mrhaste123 on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:48AM (#28928315)
This stat is, I assume, coming from Pinker, which is disputed and highly misleading. And somehow you are frustrated with engaging people.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by vmladenov on Friday October 22, 2021 @05:34AM (#28955263)
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by piva00 on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @06:35AM (#28929065)
Global extreme poverty falling isn't due to neoliberalism, or at least show me a source saying so.

I left another comment on the thread with this study [1] which I recommend to anyone wanting to dispute that neoliberalism has failed.

About the US from this study:

> Third, where we have seen a reduction in poverty, it has come from government action, not from education. The earned income tax credit (EITC) and minimum wage, for example, are the systematic levers that raised wages for lower-wage workers—not skills. In 1967, the poverty rate was 27 percent without tax credits and benefits. That number is 29 percent now, but it is 16 percent when tax credits and benefits are applied. The EITC has pulled many people out of poverty.

[1] https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RI...

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by piva00 on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @06:32AM (#28929035)
Here is a much better study and summary of the main failures than what I could ever write on this comment section [1].

[1] https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RI...

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by antifa on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:33PM (#28925816)
> unfortunately but unsurprisingly leads to chronic under-investment in the means of production, as those who would otherwise invest in capital are uninterested in seeing its value captured.

Unfortunately and unsurprisingly you got the math backwards on this one.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by mechanical_bear on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:53PM (#28926554)
A claim discounting his so strongly would seem to require at least a modicum of explanation.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by rossdavidh on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:03PM (#28920487)
Well, I'm not sure UBI really solves the issue. Also, replacing labour with machines is not really the problem here; agriculture and industry still require lots of people, it's just that those sectors aren't the ones making the profits. The profits are going to software and finance, but we still need the agriculture and industry to run, and they still need lots of people.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by onlyrealcuzzo on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:10PM (#28925674)
> it's just that those sectors aren't the ones making the profits.

Coincidentally - they're also the most competitive / not monopolies.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by coralreef on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:12PM (#28920600)
Drones, automated harvesting, self driving trucks, software etc. will make their way into those industries eventually.

If wage growth isn't coming organically for whatever reason, then some form of wage subsidy will need to occur. Or, you just have large swaths of lower middle class people in a growing state of contempt for the city dwelling elites.

[dead]
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by germinalphrase on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:41PM (#28925853)
Our agriculture industry is heavily subsidized throughout by “top down policies”.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by cscurmudgeon on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:17PM (#28926362)
Subsidies are very different from micromanagement. Also, the US is not even the top country when it comes to agri subsidies.

https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/protectio...

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by imtringued on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:27AM (#28928171)
>We can't sit around starving till then while paying people to do no work.

I already suggested giving these people work instead of income.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by antifa on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:43PM (#28925875)
"Only communists try to solve problems" is not a good argument.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by cscurmudgeon on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:06PM (#28926316)
Yes, and that was not my argument.

The argument was "only communists try to solve OTHER people's problems for them and end up creating more problems for OTHER people than they started with"

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by antifa on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:20PM (#28926375)
Congrats on defining the vast majority of good people as "communists" while simultaneously virtue signaling "communism bad".
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by cscurmudgeon on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:26PM (#28926407)
Congrats on not following one iota of my argument.

I personally think communism caused mass starvations that killed millions are bad. If that makes me an evil capitalist, so be it. (As someone who has lived through one such micro famine in a socialist country, I feel I am entitled to that opinion.)

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by imtringued on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @04:33AM (#28928212)
I don't know why communism is so popular as a counterexample on HN when communism doesn't even remotely look similar to whatever we have and to whatever economy people actually want.

It's like comparing birds and mammals. You're telling us how producing milk for offspring will somehow make us lay eggs because they are both animal protein.

No, most people just want to fix some distortions. Just charge taxes on harmful behavior and you can fix a lot of issues without much government involvement.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by antifa on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:57PM (#28926589)
Your "argument" was a low quality, bad faith, thinly veiled "You know who else enacted policy? Stalin!".
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by Frost1x on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:38AM (#28926818)
You know you don't have to go all the way to communism to fix the problems we're seeing. You simply need to take a step back from extreme capitalism were currently experiencing with a little bit of revamping. It worked fairly well, let's just fix some minor things that seem to be systemic problems with capitalism unless we want to be the poster child of how horrible capitalism is when it fails just as the Soviet Union is the poster child of failures of extreme communism.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by rsj_hn on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @12:54AM (#28926899)
> You simply need to take a step back from extreme capitalism were currently experiencing

In what universe are the western democracies experiencing "extreme capitalism"? This is a mind-boggling statement.

Just in the U.S.:

    Government consumes 15% of GDP
    FIRE is 20% of GDP
    Healthcare is 20% of GDP
    Education is 5% of GDP
None of the above industries can be considered "free market", yet they are 60% of the economy. The "free market" is thrashing around somewhere in the remaining 40%.

But not really, because on the income side, Government spending is 44% of GDP (the difference between government spending and consumption is all the checks being mailed out). Private spending is basically only half. Thus half of all economic spending is being directed by politicians.

Extreme free market?

Moreover in the labor markets, we have an extremely regulated economy, in which 23% of US workers need a government license to legally do their job.

Extreme free market?

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by mensetmanusman on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @11:00PM (#28926275)
All of those technologies had extremely low investment due to the competition with an oft-abused migrant worker class sacrificing for their families. This was short term thinking because the human race would have been better off with more investment here.
Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by thereare5lights on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @09:25PM (#28925767)
> Well, I'm not sure UBI really solves the issue.

You can't just say that and then not say why you think that.

Re:Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral? by throwaway6734 on Tuesday October 19, 2021 @01:10PM (#28920560)
Agree. We already essentially do this with social security.