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Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @06:50PM (#27936519)
American here. I took a bunch of earth science classes in college in 1999. I realized then, I would just plan ahead and aim for an urbanist lifestyle, because our country would have to change. I focused on transit alternatives as my primary advocacy, because it was the most obvious low-hanging fruit and paired with the public health.

I never imagined this would happen, but as the years went on, I grew less astonished and more cynical.

I honestly don't know how to deal with the level nihilism and genuine bitterness I feel toward my fellow man regarding climate change. This was never a political divide. The american culture was full of anti-scientific absurdity on the the right, and complete symbolism without substance on the left.

We don't even have serious bicycle or transit prioritization in our major urban areas. We don't have any concern for reducing our meat consumption. We don't have any concern for alternatives to airlines. We're to the point where only geoengineering can help, which is honestly nuts. I just, I mean, I know where I'm planning on settling down literally based on real estate in relation to climate change. It's surreal.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bko on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936708)
I don't know who you're referring to as 'we' but in the US, carbon emissions have actually peaked in the early 2000s and decreased in an absolute sense since then, despite growing population and industrialization. We're currently at 1986 emission levels. US has 15% of global emissions, while China has 28% and is growing in both per person and absolute.

I don't think you're wrong to be cynical about tackling this problem but you should be honest about what reducing emissions means to billions of people that are just now coming into the industrial age.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide...

[1] https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emi...

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by quickthrower2 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:23PM (#27936799)
Those stats are not fair because China is the world's factory. If China decides to stop exporting manufactured products to reduce it's emissions, the US would need to manufacture itself, increasing it's emissions.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bko on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:28PM (#27936854)
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china

Take a look at "China: Consumption-based accounting: how do emissions compare when we adjust for trade?"

> Annual consumption-based emissions are domestic emissions adjusted for trade. If a country imports goods the CO₂ emissions needed to produce such goods are added to its domestic emissions; if it exports goods then this is subtracted.

2018 had 8.96 bn carbon tons in consumption out of a totla of 9.96 bn total tons (~90% consumption)

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by 411111111111111 on Saturday July 24, 2021 @09:41AM (#27940862)
I loath it when statistics with titles like that are published.

The biggest amount of greenhouse gasses that china emits is from coal power plants. Naturally, figuring out what amount of electricity was used in the production of the exported goods is basically impossible, which is why its considered consumption in their data.

I'm sure the spirit of it is still correct (that most of their co2 emissions are for internal products/usage), but its hard to take that conclusion at face value when they didn't even mention the caveat that they ignore the by far biggest contributor of their emissions and consider it consumption by default.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ddingus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:41PM (#27936990)
Exactly.

We have moved the problem around, but we are not actually getting around to living differently.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by jaredklewis on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:22PM (#27937281)
I feel your comment is too soft on America.

The US's emissions per capita is more than 3 times the worldwide average. So we still need to cut our emissions by a factor of 3 just to be average. But considering we are the richest country in the world, I think it's reasonable we attempt to display some leadership by having below average emissions. And that's not even mentioning that the fact that of course current worldwide emissions per capita are far too high, so we really need to cut even more.

Meanwhile, China's emission per capita are roughly half that of the US.

Even considering the the meager progress made by the US in the past decades to reduce emissions, we are still the 4th most emitting nation per capita.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by noxer on Saturday July 24, 2021 @05:57AM (#27939573)
>...so we really need to cut even more

This is the whole pitch of the green movement. Reduce emissions at whatever cost, they completely miss the point that we (the humans on this planet) dont know how to do this. Its not about what we should do its about figuring out how and until we know how there is not much point in making peoples life harder and make them feel bad for doing what they have to do. Or make placebo progress like biofuel and other nonsense.

The earth overshoot day in 2021 is on July 29. Its not hard to figure out that we are nowhere near sustainable and all the proposed cuts and implemented policies did so far is insignificantly reduce the GROWTH of global emissions.

We need real solutions, technological progress of the magnitude of the last 100 years or something like that to make any relevant difference. Not telling people how bad they are for the environment and how they can feel better by doing mostly useless stuff like carefully separating trash for the recycling-fraud industry.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by jaredklewis on Saturday July 24, 2021 @07:30PM (#27945286)
The great majority of the world's population lives in countries with per capita emissions less than a third of the US's. Humans "know how."

It doesn't take ground breaking technology for Americans to stop driving Hummers on their office commute. Nor would it take a tech breakthrough for the US government to stop giving fossil fuel companies $20b/year in tax credits and subsidies. Nor any new tech for sunny regions to cover building roofs with solar panels. If we can spend $2 trillion plus in middle eastern wars of dubious value, surely we buy a some solar panels and batteries.

No new tech is needed. A modicum of will is all that is required.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by noxer on Monday July 26, 2021 @01:46PM (#27962554)
>The great majority of the world's population lives in countries with per capita emissions less than a third of the US's

So what? Emissions are global and rising especially in the places where most people live (Asia). If emission of the whole USA would be zero from today on, global emission would keep growing. At the current rate it would only take a few years for the rest of the world additional emission to replace the whole USA. Needless to to say that zero emission is only a thought experiment. But if this better-than-best-case-scenario can only buy us 10 years or so maybe we should not focus on this?

If the average human causes half the emission of the US people then that is still more than the planet can sustain so why do we focus on the small portion of people who use the most? We should focus on finding a solutions that cuts emission for all. Its not hard to figure out that cutting emissions from all people in halve would have far more benefit than bring the US peoples emission down to the world average or even lower. It intuitively makes sense to reduce emission where it seems the highest but if you look a the whole picture it will not have the desired effect.

>It doesn't take ground breaking technology for Americans to stop driving Hummers on their office commute.

This is exactly what I meant in my original post. The whole green movement is about cutting emission at all cost. Regardless of the fact that removing hummers from Americans or even all cars that use above average fuel would do absolutely nothing on a global scale. Especially not if they have to be replaced by newly build cars.

The whole ideas that us middle-class and rich people who could afford to reduce their emissions should be the once who take the cut is completely absurd. Yes they probably could but would probably crash the global economy if they did and beside that it would not matter at all. The global emissions are not cased by luxury products and people with high emission hobbies like driving a sport car.

> Nor any new tech for sunny regions to cover building roofs with solar panels.....surely we buy a some solar panels and batteries.

It would takes 20-30 years and it would cause and insane amount of emissions to produce solar panels and batteries in these quantities that it would reduce significant emissions. In the same time the rest of the worlds additional emissions would at least double what the USA would reduce. especially if most of the electronics that the USA would need is produces somewhere else and the processing steps that case the most emissions would likely be done outside of the USA.

The reality is we dont know how to reduce global emissions in a significant way (unless you include "solutions" that would directly or indirectly cause the death of millions of people or otherwise would be ethically not okay). We waste time by doing green placebo-solutions rather than putting all the resources we still have into finding real solutions.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by taylodl on Thursday July 29, 2021 @02:28PM (#27999785)
So what? Americans emit 3x as much CO2 per capita as does the rest of the world. The Chinese emit half as much CO2 per capita than do the Americans. This problem will not be solved on a per nation basis, it's going to be solved on a per person basis with each person taking responsibility for their own carbon footprint.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by magicalist on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:29PM (#27936873)
> but you should be honest about what reducing emissions means to billions of people that are just now coming into the industrial age.

Isn't that part of the point? If the US has maintained per capita emission levels that would be ruinous if the rest of the world joined us at, can you really say "we" are done with anything?

OP listed a bunch of specific things, moderate efficiencies and switching to natural gas are great but not nearly sufficient.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bko on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:41PM (#27936988)
I don't get what you're asking. US emissions per capita have been going down considerably since ~2000 without too much prodding or political will. As have Europes. If you look at the chart, there are only three countries with growing per capita emissions and that's China Russia and India, but most dramatically China.

I don't see your point refereeing the past emissions of the US as some kind of moral victory against the west, but regardless of what the west does, the math does not work without those countries taking action. We can cut emissions to 0 and that'll likely buy a decade or so with the current growth rate of China. So you're focusing your energy in the wrong place

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/26/us-leads-greenhouse-gas-emis...

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by NumberWangMan on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:26PM (#27937309)
This is where border adjustments come into play. We can, for example, implement a carbon tax in the US and impose a tariff on goods from other countries depending on their own environmental policies. This serves as a way to put pressure on all countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions together.

In fact, the EU is in the process of doing this right now, and China is definitely reacting to it (not happy, but it seems like the Chinese government is looking toward expanding their existing policies to cover more industries in an attempt to avoid the EU border adjustment).

Another way to look at it is that given how much the USA has already contributed to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, China would need to continue at their current levels for another 30 or so years before they catch up with us -- and that's with about 4x the population.

I understand that that argument may not be persuasive to some, though, because a lot of the manufacturing and technological development that took place in the USA over that time benefited many countries. And a lot of those emissions took place prior to the wide knowledge of how serious climate change is.

So I'd really say that we should aim for net zero emissions because it's the right thing to do. Everyone has to do it, and it's not going to happen if we all stand around waiting for someone else to go first. There is a pretty massive amount of emissions cutting we could do without much effort at all, and if the rest is spread out over a number of years, the cost will be very small, and will have a lot of benefits to people's health. (Climate change is not the only negative externality of burning fossil fuels by a long shot.)

The place to start is a carbon tax. I highly recommend that everyone who cares about climate change call congress (https://citizensclimatelobby.org/call-your-representative-ab...) and ask them to support a carbon tax.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Saturday July 24, 2021 @12:47AM (#27938467)
How does the life of the average human looks like in a world with net zero emissions? How is that life different than subsistence farming?

We need to articulate the future, not wax poetically toward some vague economic abstractions. Unless we can articulate some hopeful answer to this question, nothing consequential will change. People really do not want to live as subsistence farmers.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by throw0101a on Saturday July 24, 2021 @08:13AM (#27940234)
> How does the life of the average human looks like in a world with net zero emissions?

For one, net zero houses look pretty comfortable:

* https://www.chba.ca/CHBA/BuyingNew/Net-Zero-Homes.aspx

If you go further toward "passive house" you can have 5000 sq. ft. (500 sq. m.) of living area and only need 1500W (a hairdryer) to heat it:

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vul4vMFdkA

Residential energy use accounts for roughly 20% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States:

* https://www.pnas.org/content/117/32/19122

IMHO there's still plenty of low-hanging fruit in just efficiencies that can be plucked before lifestyle sacrifices would need to be made.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Saturday July 24, 2021 @10:28AM (#27941221)
This is an excellent answer.

The number of Passivhauser in the US is apparently in the thousands. What would it take to scale this up to 100-1000 times? What would it take to change the status from luxury good to mass adoption?

https://www.pembina.org/blog/passive-house-revolution

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by lotsofpulp on Saturday July 24, 2021 @01:00PM (#27942525)
There is always a reason why <insert groundbreaking and game changing technology> has not been widely adopted.

If it was all upside, the established players, in this case home builders, would have already incorporated it to gain a competitive advantage.

I am guessing there are downsides such as cost of materials, expertise, mold, or something that keeps this from being an economical solution.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by throw0101a on Saturday July 24, 2021 @07:01PM (#27945091)
Passive house is a very high standard, and I do not think it is very practical to do it at large scale.

Aiming for something that can be net zero is probably more practical: building stringently up to a certain point, and then throw some PV panels to offset whatever expected energy use is remaining.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by belltaco on Friday July 23, 2021 @10:47PM (#27938000)
Way to cherry pick things and sugar coat the stats for the US.

Per capita emissions for the US: 15.52 tons

Per capita emissions for India: 1.91

US has about eight times the per capita emission of India, double that of China(which makes a lot of things for the US) and somehow India and China are to blame and the US deserves no blame, even given all its riches and having the means to reduce emissions?

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by orf on Friday July 23, 2021 @11:13PM (#27938103)
So you’re saying 300m people in the US generate only half as many emissions as 1.4 billion people living in a country that is basically the worlds factory?

And you think that’s OK?

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:25PM (#27936827)
We need to essentially be net negative. Note that 3/4th of the area under that graph... is literally not visible because it doesn't start from zero.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by 908B64B197 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:23PM (#27936798)
> while China has 28% and is growing in both per person and absolute.

I'm personally completely in favor of import tariffs on goods manufactured abroad with dirty energy and immigration quotas on nationals from countries that have decided not to control their emissions.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by amanaplanacanal on Saturday July 24, 2021 @12:06AM (#27938313)
What does immigration have to do with CO2?
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by 908B64B197 on Monday July 26, 2021 @02:04PM (#27962841)
Rich Chinese are obsessed with acquiring western passports. Making it harder will incentivize them to work harder at home to fix their country's horrible environmental record.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by thenightcrawler on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:23PM (#27936802)
To be fair You could say 2020 was due to lack of car emmissions?
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by lacker on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936705)
To me, it is just the nature of large groups of human beings that sometimes there is an impending disaster, but people do not agree on what to do about it, and humanity stumbles into disaster. Look at Europe before WW1 or WW2, how many people predicted an imminent disastrous war, and how little agreement there was on how to fix it. Climate change is probably not as bad as impending WW3, but it shouldn't be surprising that we haven't had a mass changing of opinion to avoid disaster. That never really happens.

The simplest answer is that we just need to prepare for a hotter world. This article points out that there will be "no safe place". Okay, we won't have a safe place. We will need to do the best we can to minimize natural disasters and at the same time try to figure out political and technological solutions to limiting climate change.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by perl4ever on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:36PM (#27936949)
>Okay, we won't have a safe place

There never was a safe place.

Nothing much may be happening around Yellowstone, but people speculate it might some day pretty much trash the whole continent if not the world.

People in the midwest don't worry about earthquakes much but New Madrid showed it is possible and could be really bad.

In the northeast, we're a long way from where most tornadoes are, but it can happen here, I've seen evidence.

Nobody's particularly worried about something like Fukushima in the US, but there are quite a few nuclear reactors all over the place. We tend to assume the Atlantic isn't going to have a tsunami, I guess. Is that certain?

In Europe, they assume there's not going to be a devastating volcano eruption, but you know, there's the historical records of Pompeii and so on.

Nobody saw Tunguska and Chelyabinsk coming, something like that could happen at any moment over a major city.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by belorn on Friday July 23, 2021 @09:27PM (#27937622)
I have seen in every movement that while people share the goal, they do not share the strategy. The strategy often involve trade offs and cultural values that is separated from the common goal, and the stronger people feel about the goal the more convinced they are about their own chosen strategy. The most bitter fights tend to be between people who strongly share the same goals.

Preparing for a hotter world is nice, but what I am hoping is that nations (and the green movement) will realize that all strategies need to be deployed and it doesn't matter if one strategy feels like it is being counter productive to the values of an other. Some people can focus on replacing meat with vegetarian options, other on ecological meat, some on reducing factory farming in favor of local small scale production, and some on low carbon meat like shell fish. Let some build nuclear power plants, other renewable energy and battery. Focus on building bike infrastructure, rail system and electrify all parts of the transport system.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ddingus on Friday July 23, 2021 @09:48PM (#27937740)
I share that hope, but harbor no expectation of it actually happening.

And frankly lining things up so my fam and I can live really lean. Tough times ahead.

Might be 5 years, decade, maybe two, but tough times are coming.

The scale and latency in all this point to us having past the time when we could really mitigate, amd the scale means humans taking it hard a few times before realizing a big effort makes sense.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by blooalien on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:43PM (#27937409)
It's as if a significant portion of humanity has committed themselves to slow mass suicide, and decided they wanna take everyone else with 'em. Totally 110% agree with your description of it as "surreal". I keep waiting to wake from the nightmare, but it's all turning out to be real.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by tkiolp4 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:07PM (#27936664)
> It’s surreal.

I would say it’s human nature. We, humans, learn by making mistakes. There may be small differences among countries in the way we address, let’s say, climate change (e.g., Amsterdam is full of people riding bikes while Madrid is not), but at the end we all behave the same, whether in NY, Athens, or Santiago: we, as a world-wide society, only care about our immediate future, about our needs right now. The future? Well, let’s talk about that tomorrow. Countless of civilizations have disappeared (or transformed) due to this very short-term thinking way of doing things. We may disappear (or transform) as well.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bmitc on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:14PM (#27936720)
> We, humans, learn by making mistakes.

I don’t think that’s true, although you address a similar point of mine later. We often make the same mistakes over and over again. There’s a reason why we say history repeats itself.

What humans really do is react to mistakes and other events based on consequences of our actions. This reactiveness has gotten us into this mess. We often view intelligence as being able to predict things, but as a society and species, we’re absolutely awful at prevention and conservation. We’re excellent at consumption.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by qqtt on Friday July 23, 2021 @09:16PM (#27937570)
Climate change as a crisis is perfectly threading the needle between human apathy, inability to invest in long term changes, and happening too slowly to provoke a reactionary response.

We build social infrastructure that is incredibly resistant to change by design to protect ourselves and provide stability - but climate change is demanding massive changes which we are ill equipped to deal with politically.

Traditionally we solve these moments in history with revolution to demand change - but climate change is happening too slowly for complacent human mindsets to react that way at a scale that it requires as a crisis.

It is quite horrifying watching it play out in slow motion. This will not end well.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Friday July 23, 2021 @09:56PM (#27937781)
The numbers don't work out. Let's say in USA we cut meat consumption, car usage and air travel in half. That is quite a lot, congratulations to our eco-conscious citizens!

Alas, let's not pat ourselves on the back just yet. USA accounts for 15% of global emissions. Agriculture and transportation make 14% and 24%, together 48%. Half of that is 24%. 24% of 15% is 3.6% of global emissions. On the flip side:

* 96.4 of the emissions continue.

* Global emissions increased 10% since 2010, 3x more than what we saved with great (relative) sacrifice.

We may push the looming horizon a decade or two, but we won't stop the process, forget about reverting it. As the so called third world countries are moving out of poverty, aka undergoing a rapid industrialization process, emissions are bound to raise irrespective of what the so called first world countries do, due to sheer population mass. Consider the fundamental emissions equation:

   TotalEmissions = WorldArea * PopulationDensity * PerCapitaEmissions
WorldArea is constant, while industrialization greatly increases both PopulationDensity and PerCapitaEmissions. The only way restore the balance is a voluntary return to the stone age. Unfortunately, that is a political impossibility.

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emiss...

Edit: The estimated range for global emissions to maintain only a 1.5C growth has a range of 22-31 GtCO2e. Assuming emissions at the rate of France of about 5tCO2 / capita, the globally industrialized world of 2050 with 10B people will have global emissions of 50GtCO2, or 75GtCO2e. That is 3x more than Earth can sustain. Going down the list of emissions per capita by country, we find Albania, Morocco or Colombia. What we need to make the numbers is a 10x decrease in income/wealth of US residents, not minor lifestyle adjustments.

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30798/...

https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-pe...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by nine_k on Saturday July 24, 2021 @02:29PM (#27943331)
The PerCapitaEmission thing is something we can curb without returning to to stone age, given today's technology.

We have two major technologies that allow for producing useful energy without producing much or any greenhouse gases: nuclear and solar. Wind and hydro are also on the table, but are more constrained by the environment.

We also have reasonably well developing technologies for meat-like protein production from plants (see e.g. the "impossible burger") and lab-grown meat. They are currently a bit expensive, but it's mostly the matter of investment.

Sadly, all that massive construction requires steel and concrete, which emit CO2 during production. Here comes carbon sequestration: we absolutely have technologies to quickly grow massive amounts of trees, cut them, and put them to use either as a long-term construction material, or just burn the hydrogen out of them to produce energy, and bury the carbon in the empty coal mines, playing back the carboniferous epoch process.

This all does not require colossal amounts of novel science or sci-fi technological breakthroughs. It does require though that petrol cars and trucks get steadily replaced with electric, coal mining all but stopped (we need carbon for steel production), oil pumping severely limited (we still need jet fuel until we can synthesize enough), coal-fired plants demolished or turned into nuclear plants. It requires massive construction of solar, wind, and nuclear (gasp!) electric generation, and massive construction of battery capacity to make solar practical for base load. It requires shutting off most of beef production, and replacing it with fish and shrimp farming, lab-grown meat, and plant-based pseudo-meat; red meat should become a luxury like salmon roe or caviar.

The obvious problem is that most people would totally not cooperate if they'd have to quickly and radically change their way of life, their idea of what prosperity looks like (bye grilling beef over coals!), and their jobs (coal industry? oil industry? bad luck!). Can this be overcome? Either most of the Earth's population, across national, political, and religious divisions would willingly make such a change, or an planet-scale dictatorship would emerge and consistently and efficiently pursue the goals of climate change reversal, while not severely affecting productivity. I see both scenarios utterly unrealistic :(

So, buy that realty next to a major northern river 1000ft above sea level. In a century it will have the best climate Earth can offer.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by e12e on Friday July 23, 2021 @11:25PM (#27938150)
Seems to be missing that the US can cut US emissions, but cannot cut other countries' emissions. So if you can drop (say) 5% global emissions and choose not to - that's just willful ignorance?
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Saturday July 24, 2021 @12:10AM (#27938329)
A. "serious bicycle or transit prioritization in our major (US) urban areas" will not make a dent in the world global emissions.

B. The level of cuts required to bring the world to sustainable emissions level, combined with global population growth and global equity, would require that everybody to live with under 1.7t/year CO2 emissions by 2050. This is the level of Albania, Colombia or Morocco, complete political dead end on both left and right.

The crux of the problem is that there are no solutions. Even the 'we should do something about it' crowd is utterly incapable in articulating the depth of the cuts needed avert disaster, or articulate the life of the average American after such cuts. Hint: the Great Depression would be 'the good times' in comparison.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Saturday July 24, 2021 @12:49AM (#27938477)
Cool, low-hanging fruit is just, woe is me, too much trouble! No problem, let's do nothing then. Should be a fun ride. Going to be Great Depression either way!

I'm not saying we can fix it, I'm a nihilist at this point, I'm saying we could have fixed it 15 years ago.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Saturday July 24, 2021 @10:03AM (#27941029)
The US should figure out ways to cut emissions in half. Unfortunately:

A. That will not fix the global problem, as US population is too small. Even if we were to completely shut down energy production in the US, the rest of the world would build enough power plants to cover for it and then some in less than 20 years. Industrialization of 10 billion people (3% in the US) is not pretty.

B. It is unclear what to concretely do in the US to significantly cut emissions. To simplify, the right doesn't want to hear about it, and the left is content with promoting minor inconsequential Potemkiniads.

We never had a chance to fix the problem, not with 10 billion people yearning an escape from poverty.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by Swizec on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:13PM (#27936718)
A recent Freakonomics episode about America absolutely blew my mind and cemented this idea I've been trolling friends with that suburbia should be banned.

Americans use 2 trillion gallons of water per year ... for lawns. Nice green lawns. In the desert, in the south, in the north, between highways, friggen' lawns everywhere. No consideration for grasses that naturally enjoy the local environment. Only a perfect British green lawn will do. Nature be damned!

By comparison, America uses only 3 trillion gallons of water for all of agriculture.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-stupid-obsession-lawns/

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ddingus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:56PM (#27937118)
Worse, quite a lot of people are required to do that and face fines should anything but grass grow in their yard, or nothing grows.

A friend of mine did that sometime back. He just did a stone and ground cover, low maintenance yard. Was kind of awesome. City went full bat shit. Circle the yard that is different and excise the cancer! Needs to be grass, not a garden, not stones, just grass.

It is crazy.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by kragen on Saturday July 24, 2021 @02:48AM (#27938970)
Lake Superior receives about 1 meter of rain per year and covers 82000 sq km. So Lake Superior is using 82 billion cubic meters of water per year, or, in medieval units, 21 trillion gallons. You could catch 10% of the rainfall on Lake Superior in barges and supply the entire friggen lawn consumption you want to ban.

The Mississippi River discharges 16800 cubic meters per second of water, which is 530 billion cubic meters per year. In medieval units, that's 140 trillion gallons of water per year.

You're too easily impressed and have no sense of proportion, making it easy for dishonest people to manipulate your emotions. Humans are doing massive environmental damage, but human water use for lawns is insignificant.

Now get the hell off my friggen lawn.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bjowen on Saturday July 24, 2021 @08:57AM (#27940529)
It’s not really a critique of someone gawping at a big number to then go and gawp at a bigger one. These two numbers are only related in that they express volumes of water.

The context for the comment was that lawns consume water on a scale comparable to all domestic agricultural irrigation, or half of all the domestic reticulated water supply, and it’s not doing much beyond aesthetics. That is significant use of a precious resource by any measure, and a wasteful one by most people’s. If the amount of water in Lake Superior or the Mississippi were relevant to the relatively small water consumption for domestic use and agriculture, why would anyone be bothered about droughts? Just send in the barges!

Whether lawns are environmentally ruinous by dint of sucking up that much drinking water is a different argument. New builds clearing woodlands in order to have more acreage and monoculture lawns displacing native species / food webs are problems, but there’s certainly worse things you could do with an existing yard.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by kragen on Saturday July 24, 2021 @06:44PM (#27945023)
> These two numbers are only related in that they express volumes of water.

No, these three numbers are related in that they express volumes of fresh water consumed per year for particular uses in the United States. The Mississippi River is dumping 16.8 megaliters per second of freshwater into the ocean. In that context, it's totally inconsequential if people in the US spray 0.2 megaliters per second of freshwater onto their lawns.

> That is significant use of a precious resource by any measure

No, it is not.

> aesthetics. ... a wasteful [use] by most people’s [measure].

Beautifying our surroundings is not a wasteful use of resources by most people's measure; if it were, the mandatory lawn ordinances people are (rightly) decrying in this thread wouldn't have been voted in. We have seen what the results look like when people consider aesthetics "wasteful": Pruitt-Igoe, prisons, concentration camps, Soviet housing blocks, American high schools, battleships, the Pentagon, the bulldozing of forests and mountains to build parking lots. Humans do not flourish in these environments.

Instead, let us aspire to consider things wasteful that cannot be aesthetically justified!

The broader cultural context is, I think, that this lamentation of other people watering their lawns stems from the same misguided Judeo-Christian asceticism that led medieval hermits to never bathe and wear hairshirts, equating happiness, enjoyment, and comfort with sin, self-indulgence, and dissolution. Sometimes you see people from Judeo-Christian traditions attempting to justify such concepts by appropriating Buddhism, apparently unaware of the profound attention to aesthetics easily observable in any Buddhist temple or monastery.

This ascetisism has been twisted into a simplistic zero-sum pseudo-environmentalism—sometimes coupled with a feigned charity toward the poor—that equates material wealth with environmental destruction and impoverishment of others, and so seeks to ameliorate California's periodic droughts with showerhead flow restrictors and more restrictive central lawn planning.

> If the amount of water in Lake Superior or the Mississippi were relevant to the relatively small water consumption for domestic use and agriculture, why would anyone be bothered about droughts?

Probably because you're not building enough canals and pipelines to transport freshwater from the Mississippi (and other rivers) to US agricultural lands. Get on it! A lot of those rivers are already full of fertilizer! Also, it's a problem when half of California catches on fire, even if nobody's almonds burn.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by kragen on Sunday July 25, 2021 @10:45PM (#27955002)
*asceticism
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by bookofsand on Saturday July 24, 2021 @03:03AM (#27939009)
We should ban the Mississipi River, too.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by jdkee on Friday July 23, 2021 @11:01PM (#27938067)
Two cubic miles of water. Lake Michigan has 1,180 cubic miles by comparison.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by TigeriusKirk on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:31PM (#27936893)
A solution that does not provide for greater energy consumption per capita over time is not a solution. It was never going to work out any other way.

If you want to make a difference, clean energy is the path to follow. That, and carbon capture so we don't spend the rest of our lives in a worsening situation.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:00PM (#27937135)
I've been actively waiting for vapor-ware to save us for a decade and a half. Thorium-candle nuclear plants, carbon-capture, clean coal. Cool... it's been 15 years... not a lot happening in the interim.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by belter on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:21PM (#27937273)
“In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” ― Friedrich Nietzsche
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by mrcwinn on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936702)
I hear you and I understand where you're coming from. And it's serious. Very serious.

And while I do think habits both have to change and will be forced to change — I do think it's useful to accept that we have to build our world and our environment to our behavioral tendencies. It's easy to look back cynically and say, I wish we'd never done X, or Y, or Z. The reality now though is this massive economic engine, which has lifted people out of poverty and created opportunity -- polluting in its current form though it may be -- might be the thing that saves us and helps us escape velocity. Technology can help us adapt and solve this. I know it's easy to live the cynicism but I promise you, challenging though it may be, we need each other and to believe in possibility more than ever if we're going to pull this off.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ddingus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:51PM (#27937080)
Need each other.

Well, yes! I agree. However, when I look around at the movers and shakers capable of the big decisions that lead to big efforts, I do not get the sense I am needed as much as I could potentially be used.

It cost a ton to bootstrap us onto our current technology.

It will cost a ton more to transition to other energy.

For the most part, we have the tech we need. Better will come too, but big costs are not sexy, though the labor to accomplish these things would and could elevate many into a better life. Ordinary people, when presented with a plan, like build this stuff so we can live better this way, leave something livable for our kids... would be in. Large numbers of people need better jobs, and a future that one can look forward to.

What I don't see is the kind of thinking that gets us there. That kicks off the work we could have been doing for years.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by agumonkey on Sunday July 25, 2021 @08:06AM (#27948560)
Have faith, things can change rapidly in the right way too.

loads of resources available

loads of brains

manpower

when people realize and decide, you can flip a lot in few time

it's just the usual society blur and inertia that made people like you unable to do more.. many people tried but you can't carry the world on your shoulder so most people resign

get ready

ps: in dense cities, whenever possible, use your bike; we should make viral vids for bike rallies or bike days, it's 100+ % benefits for everybody in a week

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by eplanit on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:35PM (#27936936)
We are the lifelong chain-smoker who, when diagnosed with lung cancer, chooses to keep smoking because of a misguided belief that "at least I'll die happy".
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ddingus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:43PM (#27937010)
Or, they believe the point of no return has been passed, nothing to be done. I gave seen people evaluate the pain they perceive is a part of quitting exceed their perception of value.

Literally, not worth it.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by tuatoru on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:01PM (#27937147)
Après moi, le déluge.[1]

The attitude has been around since before tobacco and is commonly ascribed to Boomers. With justification. (Disclosure: I am one.)

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apr%C3%A8s_moi,_le_d%C3%A9luge

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by daxfohl on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:05PM (#27936649)
There's a lot of concrete and steel in the urban lifestyle, which according to Gates are the biggest contributors to global warming. Not saying urban lifestyle is the worst, but there's a good chance it's just not enough.

My guess is no matter what we do we're over the limit, a reduction in one thing leads to an increase in another, and probably population reduction is the only solution.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by wizzwizz4 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936711)
“Population reduction” again? It might be the most politically expedient option, but the planet isn't overpopulated. We're just polluting way too much. If you model a back-of-the-envelope sustainable civilisation, you'll find we're nowhere near any sort of fundamental population limit.

As a species, our median per-capita pollution is okay. It's the mean per-capita pollution that's the issue.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by magnetic on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:27PM (#27936849)
> If you model a back-of-the-envelope sustainable civilisation, you'll find we're nowhere near any sort of fundamental population limit.

How did you model it? I'm curious about the assumptions you made and how you came up with your conclusion.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by wizzwizz4 on Saturday July 24, 2021 @09:26AM (#27940767)
I lost the envelope (it was a while ago (and also not a literal envelope)), but I'm pretty sure I just drew a circle somewhere reasonably habitable in Europe, filled it with a decent population density to roughly non-capital city population, placed enough high-density farmland around it to produce double the necessary food (in crops), put in eight radial train tracks and some roads leading to those train tracks, surrounded the whole thing by enough 20%-efficiency solar panels to power the city (peak 300W per person, at 10% electricity losses) then multiplied up to nine billion people.

I assumed all in-city transport was manual or electric (and hence covered by the solar panels), all trains and food transport was diesel (even though electric trains are realistic), that the roofs of the city were covered in 20% efficiency solar panels (at 0% loss, due to proximity), that all long-distance transport was done with cargo ships (no aeroplanes) and there was a tenth the shipping of what we've actually got.

The vast majority of the planet was completely untouched by my hypothetical civilisation. I know I missed out a lot of stuff (e.g. how goods get from ports to people and back), but I don't think my conclusion was that far out – especially since “tile the world with solar panels” isn't an efficient renewables strategy.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936696)
You don't need skyscapers. You need the density levels of Paris. Six-story walkups. The concrete can be put into 5/2 urban buildings, or it can be put in to driveways, pools, and sidewalks no one will ever use.

Pretending that urbanism is somehow remotely equivalent is naive at best.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by NumberWangMan on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:30PM (#27937338)
Exactly -- most "urban" areas in the USA are actually sprawling car-dependent suburbs that use far more resources of all kinds per capita than a true urban area.

What's more, is that we've forgotten that you don't need to build suburbs around cars. You can have pleasant suburbs with offices, shops, schools, and other non-residential buildings mixed into the neighborhood. Where people actually walk and cycle because the streets feel like they were made for it.

There's a massive gap between the population density of 60000 people per square mile you might find in an urban center, and the approximately 1,500 people per square mile you get in a typical suburb.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ianai on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:32PM (#27936904)
Where do you have in mind? Just anywhere north enough?
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by RedditKon on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:07PM (#27936666)
100 companies are responsible for 71% of global emissions. This isn't a right/left problem - both parties have let corporations get away with runaway pollution for entirely too long.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:09PM (#27936680)
Bullshit. 100 companies are responsible for extraction. They are selling us the carbon we are actively buying.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by hak8or on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936707)
Thank you, I could not agree more. These companies exist because their services and products are being bought by someone else, and in the end the consumers are either actual consumers or governments (who consumers vote for). I place minimal blame on companies, because clearly consumers don't care, and instead want to buy the cheapest products possible.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by r00fus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:27PM (#27936846)
That'd be great if they didn't BUY politicians to write laws that subsidize their extraction and hamper legislation to actually combat the externalities THEY produced.

Consumers do care, but their choices are between bad and awful because the economics (structured by the extraction companies) stacks the deck against solutions.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:49PM (#27937056)
What are you talking about. The corporations, man, are not responsible for the zoning apocalypse American cities dealing with. You literally cannot live in a walkable high rise in most of Brooklyn, SF, LA, Austin, etc., not because of BIG AUTO, but because literally the neighbors there don't like tall buildings and want more free street-parking spaces for their cars.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by mannerheim on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936709)
Not to mention quite a few of those 'companies' are state-owned entities...
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by tacostakohashi on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:55PM (#27937107)
Would it be better to split those companies up with a series of spinoffs so it's actually 1,000 companies, or 1,000,000 smaller companies releasing 71% of global emissions? Or is the number of companies involved in fact completely arbitrary and meaningless?
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by rhino369 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:16PM (#27936744)
This line of thinking allows consumers to pass off their responsibility for their own choices.

Who is really to blame for the emissions for my flight to Turkey to sit on a beach even though I live 4 blocks from another (worse) beach. Under your view it would be Lufthansa or whoever sold them the fuel.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by dmead on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:02PM (#27936626)
You're asking people to suffering annoyances and spend lots of money when the average income has been going down for 40 years. I'm surprised you're surprised.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:07PM (#27936669)
Living more efficiently obviously saves money.

The absurdities of what's happening is literally the Sierra Club opposing density in San Francisco. The environmentalist are literally opposing density across California. Los Angeles, to San Francisco, to Marin County, under the banner of "preservation," we're going to destroy the climate.

I just, i cannot believe this is happening. They same people who would hand wash a peanut butter jar, to recycle it, are the exact same people who are literally creating suburban cities designed for burning carbon.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by AussieWog93 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:41PM (#27936991)
>They same people who would hand wash a peanut butter jar, to recycle it, are the exact same people who are literally creating suburban cities designed for burning carbon.

Scoofy, I cannot overstate how much pure, cynical joy I feel after reading your rants here. Thank you for cutting through the bullshit; you're doing God's work.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:12PM (#27937213)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ -chuckles, "I'm in danger"
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by nwiswell on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:28PM (#27936861)
> I just, i cannot believe this is happening.

This isn't hard to understand. The Sierra Club is made up of legitimate environmentalists, but they also care about their organization and their livelihoods, and many of the major donors to the Sierra Club are property owners in San Francisco (or Marin, or LA).

Property values are obviously negatively impacted by development / densification, and so to avoid alienating donors, for whom opposing development is the single most important economic issue, the Sierra Club is dutifully NIMBYist.

I can assure you the Sierra Club would be fine with densification in Africa or whatever.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:33PM (#27936917)
> and complete symbolism without substance on the left.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by nwiswell on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:38PM (#27936955)
There's plenty of substance. It's just hypocritical for the Sierra Club to pretend that the motive is environmental.

There isn't any cause for shock. Given the incentives at play this is expected. How much financial suffering would you accept to put a dent in global warming? For most people it's not much.

The good news is, it's easy to predict that the Sierra Club is going to eventually lose on this issue. Property values are so high that many people are totally shut out of the property market and a political storm is gathering. Hopefully, by the time the dam breaks and real urbanization finally arrives on the West Coast, it's not too late to matter.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:54PM (#27937105)
This isn't about the Sierra Club. It's about the blue cities in general. I've been to transit alternatives infrastructure meetings in Austin, NYC, and SF.

They are all driven by parking spaces and reducing peak traffic. It's absurd to see the very same people who lose their mind at the idea of America dropping out of the Paris Climate Accord, are exactly the same people who think we should impose minimum parking requirements on new buildings, block a bike share and safe bike infrastructure because the bike are ugly and take parking space away, and argue that BRT is terrible and will never work, because they won't use it.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by mariusor on Saturday July 24, 2021 @04:00PM (#27943972)
> are literally creating suburban cities designed for burning carbon.

I would imagine they are creating suburban cities designed for alternative means of transportation.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by JumpCrisscross on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:05PM (#27936651)
> average income has been going down for 40 years

Not true [1]. This is true across economic strata, with real stagnation being the plague of our most destitute.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by mastax on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:07PM (#27936662)
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by fallingknife on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:12PM (#27936698)
> We don't even have serious bicycle or transit prioritization in our major urban areas. We don't have any concern for reducing our meat consumption. We don't have any concern for alternatives to airlines.

Sorry, but this stuff is a joke. Population control and non carbon based energy sources are the only things that can really make an impact.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:17PM (#27936749)
Cool, the low hanging fruit is a joke. Let's do nothing then, how about that.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by ianai on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:29PM (#27936878)
I appreciate your perspective. I’ve always thought climate change should be a higher priority. The amount of resources for the meat industry alone should be enough to make some changes. But oil has insular forces making it a real curse to progress.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by Falling3 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:48PM (#27937043)
The richest 10% of the world population is responsible for almost half of all carbon emissions. The global median age is up and expected to continue rising. The global fertility rate is dropping. Population growth is projected to flatten in the next century.

Why would we waste time on population control, much less prioritize it?

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by MildlySerious on Saturday July 24, 2021 @09:33AM (#27940803)
I see the population control argument made a lot, and while I don't want to throw this conversation out the window entirely, I personally don't think it's very constructive right now.

What we need is a drastic reduction in emissions FAST. X0% less now buys a lot more time and has a much bigger effect than X0% in say 50 years when most of the damage is done.

Any means of population control that is not straight up genocide will take decades if not generations to make a real impact.

Long term planning should of course be a core part of our strategy, and whether population control is part of that or not is not my call to make. That being said, the next five to ten years are much, much more important, and my experience in these contexts has been that the population control argument tends to interfere with this more important conversation about actions to take right now.

What would help most in a shorter time frame is economic incentives to move away from fossil fuels. Carbon taxes, and most importantly changing where subsidies go in the first place would go a long way. More funding for research in relevant areas would, as well.

Before those and other things aren't well underway, there is really nothing to gain from bringing up population control every time the climate change comes up, in my opinion.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by rightbyte on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:10PM (#27936686)
The same people that can't do a accurate weather forecast more than 5 days into the future are telling you the world is gonna end due to climate change ... and you blame the common man for not freaking out? I mean put your self in peoples shoes.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by jacobolus on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:27PM (#27936841)
I can’t predict what my 4-year old will want to eat for dinner tonight or how much, but I can easily predict that he’ll be substantially bigger and heavier a year from now, and predict the change in height and weight within reasonable tolerance.

If some laypeople have not received a basic high school education and have trouble understanding variance, uncertainty, and the difference between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, that really isn’t the fault of climate scientists.

Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by scoofy on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:28PM (#27936858)
"Scientists are dumb, and their dumb scientific, totally rational consensus, backed up by tons of data, is dumb"
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by smolder on Friday July 23, 2021 @08:00PM (#27937133)
They are not "the same people", though I suspect most meteorologists have a grasp of climate trends. Those are also two very different kinds of prediction. One is like trying to guess the outcome of an individual chess match, with predictions getting better as the time draws near, the other is like noticing that white has a slightly higher chance of winning over the course of very many games.
Re:A 3°C world has no safe place by taf2 on Friday July 23, 2021 @07:04PM (#27936648)
I’ll try to help you feel less bitter it may not work. The problem is not your fellow man or the need to burn to keep warm and provide energy… the problem is simple, there are too many of us. I don’t view this as an impossible thing to over come rather I trust we will over come this - you will wake up tomorrow drive or not to work and continue on your merry way. The economy is shifting to more efficient energy sources. And tomorrow will be another day. Earth has the best atmosphere and gravity of any planet in the solar system. Whether we live in domes here or not it’s the best option until we break the light barrier and learn to live forever.