I merely wanted to try and raise some awareness to those who question the need for technological removal methods as there is a bit of a toxic "trees will save us" attitude when things like this get mentioned.
I'm more into the juxtapositions of interactions between idiots vs experts, specialists vs generalists, startup-billionaire vs unemployed-drug-addict-hacker, and the level of insight that can be gained from these conversations.
I believe that the civility, and desire for unfettered conversation (avoiding ad-hominem, flame-wars. etc···) are more of an instrumental-goal of this process, than the true goal.
I don't really know why the comments on hn are the way they are, and I doubt anyone ever will. But that's what keeps me coming back here. It's the only place on the internet I can get this kind of thing, whatever it is.
I do have to say, there's something special and unique here. Like the userbases of wikipedia, stack overflow, 4chan, or twitter, there's something here that's impossible to recreate and worth preserving.
I thought it was funny to see similar sentiments back to back :)
Hardly a discourse. Both gents above might have a negligible disagreement but they are sticking firmly to radical green agenda shadow-officially endorsed and promoted by Yahoo Combinator. Also, good for karma income. Just the same for praising comments.
What is this radical green agenda that you identify? I'm not disputing that exists, I'm certainly part of it, and I intend to continue leaning into it. I'm just curious how it looks from the outside.
And you can (probably) do better than trees, in terms of carbon captured per time unit. But I guess you'd have to run comparative studies between birch and bamboo for biomass grown per time unit and area.
Hm, that means that a sensible unit for carbon capture would be "kg / (m * m * s)".
But, yes, my main reason for thinking bamboo is that it is pretty fast-growing under the right conditions.
And with a Watt actually being "kg * m^2 / s^3", your unit ends up being s^2 / m^4, which dimensionally looks less pleasant.
But, yes, it'd require some care.
We don't need to wait 100 years for maturation of the wood in forests, the nice thing about wood is that you can use it for paper and construction, and that effectively sequesters the carbon.
Here in Sweden it is the law that if you cut down a forest you replant it. We have been doing it for a century. All forests here is basically in a constant plant-grow-cut cycle unless the land is claimed for new buildings (farm land has been steady declining every year).
It is debatable if the practice is carbon negative or carbon neutral. Most of wood product do get burned sooner or later, or turned into bio gas which then get burned. Almost nothing remain as stable carbon sink. A planted forest is an future investment to be cut, processed and burned. The only exception is forest reservations and those are much more expensive to make than planting trees.
The advocacy behind replanting might be better invested into a political action of bringing similar replanting laws to other countries. Sweden mostly did it because it looked ugly to have wast areas cut down without regrowth, and because it hurt biodiversity. It also make sense economically in the long run.
Yes, there is. Trees take a up valuable real estate. As long as people can do something even remotely profitable with land they own, this can not work.
For instance, trees essentially power the entire terrestrial water cycle. Without trees all the water rains out within a few hundred km of the coast. Trees (far moreso than simple evaporation) are responsible for pushing that water back into the air-stream. Isotopic analysis confirms that 80% of the rainfall on land is caused by transpiration, and most of that is trees. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11983
This explains why deforestation causes desertification. Cut down the trees and you get a continent-wide desert.
These dynamics aren't well-captured by the present economic system, which only sees "valuable real estate" being "taken up" by trees.
As long as plantation owners and/or illegal loggers do, then all your argumentation is moot.
As much as CO2 emissions befear me, so too does increasingly poor topsoil, globally.
- ed
I'm not even sure we'd need to wait for trees to mature either - we just need work with whatever plant absorbs the most CO2. Perhaps algae, even?
In theory it's energy positive: burning the crop can produce energy.
We (humans) have accelerated emissions (by burning, thus reversing, geosphere capture via oil) and destroyed the biosphere through deforestation. This has also been accelerated as raising temperatures thaw permafrost & destroy ocean life (among others).
Anything we can do to reverse this is beneficial.
Heat could also increase biomass since there would be a longer growing season and higher latitudes opening up.
But like you say, it’s a trade off so hard to predict.
Until our technology catches up and provides net carbon-neutral energy, we have to pollute less. And that may be and doing less, and "consuming" less. And that will require force. Public pressure, social pressure, and regulation. No business will do it voluntarily, and no government will make itself unpopular voluntarily.
Long term we need green energy technology. Short term, we need technology is to help force change in our habits.
Do all the other stuff too, sure, but it seems like most of the pollution currently comes from Industry, Agriculture and transport. Things that enhance human quality of life. We need to decide which enhancements are most essential, and cut back.
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emiss...
Empress seems to be the ideal candidate.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-02/we-alread...
Also mono cultures and replacing natural vegetation with man-made forestation can actually be more limited to the amount of carbon they can capture long term.
Source: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/80271/6...
It'll probably start a war, but once natural resources start getting scarce I fully expect the affected nation to deploy SO2.
We are letting anthropogenic global warming happen because it’s cheaper in the very near term. But climate change is a real thing and will have real, life-threatening effects especially for some geographic regions.
If we accept the reality that: 1) humans often just do what is cheapest and easiest even if the long-term consequences are bad AND 2) global warming will start killing massive numbers of people from things like heat stroke, putting enormous political pressure on governments to do something,
…then The logical conclusion (combined with how insanely cheap SO2 is to deploy, we’re talking maybe $50 billion a year, maybe less) is that there is an extremely high probability that some nation will just unilaterally do sulfur dioxide. Think of a Nation like India, with a large population that will be vulnerable to heat stroke and a big enough budget and military to just unilaterally do something like this to stop the political unrest of hundreds of thousands of heat stroke deaths per yearz
The stuff isn't uranium and not much is needed. Any nation with an airplane should be able to get away with it.
But I said $50 billion per year. That’s what probably way too high. Other estimates mention $18 billion per year, I found one that mentioned $2 billion per year, and just doing the calculation by hand based on fuel and per hour operating costs, I get only like $100 million, although that depends on altitude (I think 20km is usually ideal, although most cargo jets can’t go much above 13km).
I even wonder what the effect would be of just using sulfur-rich jet fuel on regular commercial long-haul flights. The cost would be minimal or even negative (as sulfur-rich crude is cheaper). I guess in this way any nation could just decide to do sulfur-rich fuel in their long haul fleet and few would immediately notice.
It’s such a crappy solution to the problem, though, and will doubtless cause a bunch more problems. But it’d be insanely cheap to do.
Still sub optimal compared to other solutions but it’s possible we may need to try something like that.
Why disasterous?
There's also the fact that you're altering a chaotic system, with fundamentally unpredictable side effects, some of which could last longer than a human lifespan. Wanna make California get monthly hurricanes? How about weekly tornados in Colorado? Bury New York city in ice?
It's not that any of those things are probable just that they're possible, and chaotic systems can drastically, catastrophically, and exponentially change configuration, and no matter how good your supercomputer simulations are, you fundamentally cannot predict the consequences.
All of human civilization teeters on the current climate configuration - geoengineering has terrifying potential. Humans have a horrible track record in attempts to predictably alter chaotic systems and ecologies. We damn well better know what we're doing before we use globally acting tools.
Similar to the GERD but in the sky.
The notion being that nature or even the climate is balanced/stable ?
I think the focus should be on increasing resiliency not hoping everything is going to be alright "if we just undo this one thing".
Having said that I'm all for reverting CO2 emissions, just dislike this implicit notion that nature is harmonious by default and humans fucked it up - there's speculation about weather related disasters pre industrial era, so even very recently in human context. Or the disruptions we have with relatively minor volcanic activity. So many natural thing could screw us way worse than global warming and for the first time in history we're getting technologically advanced enough to protect against it.
Hybrid poplars mature within a decade, and a biochar reactor is a net-energy producing reaction that produces soil improving char as a byproduct.
It won't save the world on it's own, but trees can be leveraged in powerful ways.
Great for replacing fossil fuels, but not a carbon sequestration technique.
Or if you wanted you could literally just bury it. Then it becomes a coal plant in reverse
Hitting the tree equivalent of those sand-filled barrels sounds a lot better than dissipating that same energy by either A) flipping, or B) colliding with oncoming traffic.
It would be interesting to see the videos of "crash testing" various types of orchards!
As I wrote elsewhere in the thread, it's all about maximizing the total carbon stored per hectare. That means more trees in the median, more trees in our suburbs, more trees in the city, and (most importantly) more trees in agriculture.
There's a small set of "farmer's trees" (eg black locust) that coexist with crops right up to the trunk, drop copious mulch, have deep tap roots that bring up minerals, and make nutritious pods that are good fodder for animals. Planting 15-20 of these trees per hectare will actually increase the crop yield beneath.
Tons more carbon stored, better crop yield, cuts down wind erosion, and free fodder too. The cost is that the farmer has to drive around the trees. It's a non-zero cost yes, but it's a much easier switch than transitioning to full-on agroforestry.
While a hectare of forest may be "only" CO2-neutral, a hectare of buildings are typically net CO2 emitters.
Of course this strategy does have to go hand-in-hand with drastic emission reductions to prevent use getting back to the same point and having nowhere else to put trees.
In the 2070s things will be very different.
Forests need to be managed to optimize for sequestration; log the right parts at the right time, replant. Also need to invest more in controlling forest fires (hell, use the military if that's the only way to get the budget).
At the other end we need to reduce burning wood for fuel through other renewables and put more lumber into building.
Sounds like dramatic progress to me. It uses a technology we already have against a problem that is only getting worse by the second. The side effect of fostering sustainable natural resources would be an unquestionable good as well.
We can't possibly build a machine for every function a tree does.
If we could remove so much CO2 from the air that it prevented plants from growing (even if the effect were highly localized, which is pretty much a certainty), then we might actually have a shot at being able to remove CO2 in a reasonable amount of time. So this definitely sounds like a good problem to have. Personally I think that's pretty unlikely though.
As I understand it the air carrying the CO₂ is constantly moving and will not create any deficit regions?
Besides, with the large over concentration of carbon dioxide we have at the moment I think increasing temperatures have a higher chance of creating hostile environments.
Not even, say you could transform the Sahara to rain forest, awesome right? I mean it would be an incredible feat, but it would give you exactly 0 with reducing carbon. Contrary to popular belief the Amazon rain forest aren't the "lungs" of the planet, the Amazon rain forest is basically net 0. Why? Because the rain forest also has a tremendous amount of life/animals, those animals use the oxygen and produce carbon. The real "lungs" of the planet are in the ocean.
Trees sequester carbon. They also return that carbon to the atmosphere eventually, but as long as they're replaced by new trees, that's fine. That's not what's happening in the Amazon.
From a carbon perspective forests for timber are even better because then we keep several generations of trees worth of carbon locked up in our structures. It's also an easier sell because that has real economic value.
From a biodiversity perspective it's not as good to have monoculture crops of any kind, including trees.
According to the documentary "One Strange Rock", which I admit I have not fact checked, your statement is absolutely false. The documentary claims 100% of the oxygen produced by the Amazon rain forest is used up by the animals that live in it.
EDIT:
Also this PBS article backups the claim. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/no-the-amazon-fires-won...
"Forest plants produce lots of oxygen, and forest microbes consume a lot of oxygen. As a result, net production of oxygen by forests – and indeed, all land plants – is very close to zero."
Forests do sequester carbon for a period, although most of it is released again in fires and decomposition (chemically just a slow fire.)
But the point is that a forest locks up a lot of carbon compared to cleared grazing or cropland.
EDIT: You might find this PBS article interesting as well, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/no-the-amazon-fires-won...
"Forest plants produce lots of oxygen, and forest microbes consume a lot of oxygen. As a result, net production of oxygen by forests – and indeed, all land plants – is very close to zero."
Photosynthesis: 6CO2 + 6H2O → C6H12O6 + 6O2
You can see here that there's glucose (a carbohydrate) being produced in addition to oxygen.
For some context, if we planted trees wherever we could around the world we can only undo a decades worth of emissions[0].
Not only that but it would still take a century for the trees to reach maturity.
Our use of technology threw nature out of balance and we need to use technology to get the balance back again.
[0] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6463/eaaz0388.ful...