bgroat

We're 90%... we're almost half way there!

For me it feels more like a rinse.

My brain feels cloudy/covered in junk. Then I rest and can kind of feel all the crap being hosed away

This has been commonly known by magicians for decades. I doubt that any single magician had conducted 350k flips, but I know I personally did ~2,500 to test the effect when I was a kid.

And I'm sure if you got 30 magicians together to pool data we'd have a meta-analysis of about this size but with experiments a century ago

I'm not an Orson Scott Card fan generally, but I LOVED his Shadow Series (the world of Ender's Game from the perspective of Bean).

In one of the books in the Shadow Series Bean explains his leadership style as:

"I will always explain why something is important, and why we're doing it this particular way... The reason for this is that if we ever find ourselves in a situation where I CAN'T give orders you know what I prioritize and how I might think of something... furthermore, if we're in a situation where I CAN give orders but DON'T explain you will understand that it's simply because I do not have time, but presumably have good reasons, and will proceed to immediately execute said orders"

It appears this emergency room operated in a similar capacity

Literally whenever someone crosses my mind I shoot them a text, "Hey zokier, I was thinking about ya! Hope you're well!"

Trivially easy and people treat me like I have social super powers

Not only is it nearly impossible to use anywhere... but a huge component of BTC's mythology is making fun of someone who ACTUALLY spent it as money (Bitcoin Pizza)

Everyone's life is completely different, and their choices are their own. It seems you made the right choice for yourself, and I hope your kids agree.

I will say though, I think there's a chicken and egg element in this line of thinking.

A part of my thinks that being childless in twenties provides space that facilitates being a basket-case.

I think that having a child immediately makes most people at least 50% more responsible, and 85%+ within a year.

Again, there's a huge range here for people who: - Never get better - Their 85%+ still isn't really responsible enough.

Unsolicited 2 cents from a guy who had a kid in his twenties

I think for a lot of people (me included), the primary advantage is in ease of measurement.

It's hard to count calories accurately.

It's very easy to look at the clock and determine if it's between 1300-1900 hours

This was the point that founder friend was making.

It's hard to look someone in the eye and say they're done

A founder friend confided in me years ago, "It is MUCH easier to raise more money than it is to fire someone... I just keep raising and hiring and eventually everything will get done"

No surprise that this approach was very much a "Low-Rates Phenomenon"

I'm not a historian, archeologist, or any sort of relevant expert.

But I've long had the pet theory that the Green Sahara is the origin of the Eden Myth.

Homo Sapiens origin, lush vegetation, turns to dessert for some reason beyond our comprehension...

This is where I landed too.

GPT generated "ideas" strike as wanting to use a swipe file. Only instead of it being full of persuasive, high-performing marketing materials.. it's just fast and prolific

This is the sort of stock line, and we're inclined to believe it because we're all in tech.

But go back on HN a decade and be really honest.

Are we any better than average at forecasting?

I'm starting to think that being on the bleeding edge and seeing so many possible alternate futures actually makes us worse

Something curious that I've noticed is that the people who I see that are MOST excited are in tech.

When I show ChatGPT to a lay person they don't really care.

When I show it to a professional copywriter they say that if they submitted this content to a client they would lose the client.

I'm reminded of when my son was learning to talk and everything he said seemed brilliant and coherent to me.

To any stranger it sounded like gibberish.

I think GPT is like my son, and all tech people are like excited parents.

Maybe the kid will learn to speak like an adult, but it can't yet

>> Careful prompt work can evade those poles and tics, but most people won’t have the skill or drive to bother with that.

I absolutely agree with this.

Furthermore, I've come to believe that "careful prompt work" doesn't really save much time relative to just writing/coding the output I want.

Especially after QA/edits

I used to perform as a mentalist and "psychic entertainer" (I don't have powers, and amongst my peers who claimed to... none of them could do anything I couldn't).

I actually fully expected GPT to write a good "Cold Read" (A psychic reading based on statistically averages, or basic observational data).

It actually was NOT good at this.

I'd say it's true if you're aren't unattractive (basically nail personal grooming), and are somewhat interested in someone else.

It's interesting to me that you think you failed people.

I roll my eyes when I hear quotes like, "Judge a fish by it's ability to fly and you'll think it's a failure"... but there is something to that.

Maybe you're chocolate and those people just prefer vanilla?

"Uncommon Commonalities" are wild.

There was a girl who I couldn't stand in high school... but we bumped into each other in a train station on the opposite side of the country... and hung out all afternoon.

Just being from the same small town made an immediate (but brief) connection

This is a big part of my "So hard it's easy" philosophy.

Most people are so bad at conversation (waiting patiently for their turn to tell a completely unrelated anecdote), that just being able to have an organic chat is pretty "knock your socks off behavior"

In my mind this was was “best case engagement”

I told you what I’m about.

You told me your preferences.

They don’t mesh, so we both split after having spent a pleasant 90 seconds

I'd be willing to except that my definition of "friends" aligns with your definition of "mates".

Nothing too emotionally intense. Just a loneliness balm and reliable cool hangs

And that's kind of my point.

The little bit you know about me from this thread... would you want to grab a beer if all you had to do was read the text and confirm you were available?

These steps ARE scary for some people... and that's okay... I'm happy to do it. I just want to get to you know you!

Luck is an interesting element.

My best friend for 20 years (we've since fallen out of touch), was someone I met in kindergarten?

How did we become friends?

My surname starts with a "G" and his starts with an "H" so we were seated next to each other

I can't say that you're wrong, because everyone's environment/experience is different.

But this is so outside my perception of the world and that of everyone I've ever spoken to (across a swatch of demographics across North America and Europe).

Friendship groups narrow because it isn't EASY anymore (you're not all on campus).

Nobody actually desires for them to narrow.

If you can make it *easy* for the other person (by handling the approach, scheduling, etc). They'll be as willing as in uni days

My definition of a friend is defined in another comment response. Basically, "will hang 50%+ of the time an invitation is issued (schedule permitting), and both of us would enjoy ourselves).

Typically takes about 3-5 meets to get there

I agree with your distinction, but not with your degree.

It's *hard* v. *complex*, but it doesn't take as long as you'd think.

- Approach

- Chatting for an hour

- 10 texts back and forth to coordinate a meet

- Meet for 90 minutes

(repeat the last two bullets 3-5 times)

Is a pretty reliable path to "good friend".

Good friend is defined as: "Will reliable hang with you, schedule permitting 60% of the time you ask... and you will both have a good time"

Good friend is not, "Will donate a kidney"

Edited to include some more context.

These are great points.

Places where it can be assumed people are comfortable with an approach:

- A public place/destination (bar is okay, bus isn't)

- They are not in the middle of speaking (lulls in conversations are fine)

- They are not blocking sensory inputs (don't approach if you see headphones)

This also isn't magic. My success isn't 100%. It's about 30%

Which means that 7/10 people don't want to talk to me (which is fine).

But it also means that I can pretty reliably make a friend/day if I were so inclined

A bit about me, I'm a short man (5'3") with pretty solid facial symmetry and good grooming but I'm NOT particularly attractive.

I'm putting that context because it is important:

- Because of maleness I'm automatically safer in most situations (as in, I can approach someone, go off solo w/them and be confident I won't be assaulted)

- I'm short, so I'm not REALLY a physical threat to people - Hygiene implies social consideration/health

- Facial symmetry automatically encourages trust

- Being TOO attractive (and I'm nowhere close) can be intimidating to some people

I am one of these friendly extroverts.

Something that's hard for me to explain is that "making friends is so hard it's easy"

What I mean by that is, social anxiety is so high, population-level self-absorption is so high, people are so lonely... that for the most part if you just approach someone and behave as if you're friends... they'll go for it.

There's so much DEMAND for friends, that people will gobble up your supply if you offer it (so long as you're not a total monster)

I use to be really into crypto.

I bought Ethereum in 2015.

Raised a 7-figure fund in 2017.

Closed everything down in 2019.

My take of the space is that all of the projects are on a spectrum.

Total scams <--------------> Completely superfluous