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Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by nojvek on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:47AM (#26179716)
When I was at PowerBI in Microsoft, all the execs hailed it as Startup within Microsoft. Come work here instead of Uber. I worked like a dog, sometimes till 2am in morning. My manager would routinely ask us to come on weekends. I was naive, I thought we are growing customer base, this is what a startup looks like.

The ultimate realization was in a startup you have equity, a decent amount in a good startup. At Microsoft it was a base salary and set amount of stock. What we did moved very little of the top revenue metric. It made little difference if I worked like a dog, or slacked. The promos were very much “buddy buddy” system.

In the end I realized you can’t have startups in big companies (esp as an engineer you don’t have the huge upside if the startup is successful, your upside is capped)

Startups work because you have skin in the game, when you build something people want, you get to reap rewards proportional to it. That correlation and feedback loop is very important.

At big companies you don’t have the the same correlation. Some big shot exec they hired reaps far far more on the work you did.

Equity is what builds wealth.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by DebtDeflation on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:32AM (#26180162)
>The ultimate realization was in a startup you have equity, a decent amount in a good startup. At Microsoft it was a base salary and set amount of stock.

I joined a startup in 1999. There were 3 founders and I was employee #2 after that. I received a ton of options (this was before RSUs became popular). We had a great product and a great team, but 18 months later ran out of money and unfortunately it was right after the dotcom implosion of early 2001 when funding had completely dried up.

My takeaway was that base salary is actually the most important component of TC. Cash bonus based on some metric that you control comes second. Equity comes third. If you work for a FAANG, maybe equity can move higher up (though it remains to be seen how long this will be true).

Outside of FAANG (and top executives at F500 sized public companies) very few people are getting rich off of the "equity" component of their TC. The vast majority of startups go bust before IPO or acquisition.

Time is the most valuable commodity you have, don't squander it for lottery tickets and empty promises.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by harikb on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:02PM (#26182376)
The thing most people forget about options & RSU is that one is taking away a big chunk of the TC and delay it to a future year. Even when you hate your job, you will be hesitant to leave the company because of FOMO and sunk cost fallacy

That said, anecdotally, every one of my close circle of friends made decent amount money from equity (one of the many companies they worked at did very well) - far higher than the 10% stat that I hear talked about. May be the last two decades was lucky for this group of people.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by CydeWeys on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:37PM (#26182876)
> The thing most people forget about options & RSU is that one is taking away a big chunk of the TC and delay it to a future year.

That's not my experience. My TC is the amount I'll actually make this year (and have made in previous years), which includes my salary, bonus, and the value of the RSUs at vesting, which I auto-sell. I'm not "delaying" anything; I'm making great money right now. Unvested shares only matter to the extent that your future income might over/underperform current predictions to some extent. I definitely don't consider them "mine" yet in any way; they're simply a leading indicator of my estimated future TC at this company if I continue to stay employed here.

Options, yes, are a different matter, but RSUs in big companies are almost as good as cash (and when the market is going up, as it has been this past decade, they're better than cash).

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by rattray on Thursday February 18, 2021 @06:18PM (#26187205)
The comment you're replying to is talking about RSU's in startups (illiquid) not public companies.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ptmcc on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:27PM (#26183560)
Let's be careful here and not conflate options and RSUs, especially comparing between startups and public companies.

Options in a startup are extremely likely to be worth nothing, ever. Not only does the company need some sort of liquidity or exit event, but the valuation then also has to be higher than the strike price on your options. And options usually have punishing exercise-or-lose-them requirements if you leave the company before a liquidity event.

RSUs, once they vest, are yours without having to exercise them. If it's a public company you can turn around and sell them on the open market immediately if you desire and get cash for them. If the company's stock declines, your RSUs are still worth something since the "basis" is $0. If you leave the company, your vested RSUs are still yours.

Yes 1-year cliffs for vesting are common and do defer compensation, but 1 year is not a long time at all to be at a company especially a large public company. After the first year the regular vesting cadence sets in and it's just a slightly more complicated form of cash, with market risk.

Over the past few years that market risk has hugely benefitted most tech companies and RSU recipients. In 2020 my RSU comp was more than 50% of my total comp, basically doubling my (already high) base salary. ESPP further compounded that.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by reissbaker on Friday February 19, 2021 @12:55AM (#26190203)
RSUs are trickier than that if you work at a non-public company (e.g. a startup). For example, they actually do typically expire if the company doesn't have a liquidity event within a certain timeframe -- and unlike options, if the expiration date comes up you have no recourse; with an option, you can at least exercise it, at which point it becomes common stock and you own it outright.

As a personal example, I previously worked at Airbnb and had a mixture of options and RSUs. Some of my RSUs were only months away from their expiration date when the company went public; if anything had delayed the IPO much longer, they would have disappeared. With the options, I could have bought them and prevented them from disappearing even had the company not gone public. As a result, leading up to the IPO I was moderately worried about my RSUs, but not particularly worried about my options.

FWIW, you're probably thinking about ISOs ("incentive stock options") when you refer to the "punishing exercise-or-lose-them requirements;" companies can also offer NQSOs ("non-qualified stock options"), which are less tax-advantaged but can offer long exercise timeframes even after you leave the company. A lot of the "unicorn" startups, including Airbnb, allowed ISO holders to convert to NQSOs for that reason.

Options vs RSUs is a tricky subject and the ideal choice varies based on circumstance.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by heleninboodler on Friday February 19, 2021 @04:26PM (#26198225)
> If the company's stock declines, your RSUs are still worth something since the "basis" is $0. If you leave the company, your vested RSUs are still yours.

The quotes around "basis" here make me think you probably know this, but just in case someone needs this nit picked: this "basis" being referred to here is emphatically not the "cost basis" for tax purposes. If a $50 share vests and you sell it for $55, you have a cost basis of $50, giving you $50 income and $5 capital gain.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by dilyevsky on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:04PM (#26188623)
It’s still possible to lose money on rsus if the company value plummets bc they are taxed on liquidity event (assuming double trigger vest)
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by rblatz on Friday February 19, 2021 @10:08AM (#26193955)
You can also elect to be taxed at the time of the grant via an 83b election.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by dhosek on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:21PM (#26182640)
I have never had a stock option that was worth as much as a penny in the course of my career. In one case, a “can't lose” employee stock purchase program (where you put aside money for purchase and at the end of the year you would get stock bought at the lower of the price at the beginning and end of the purchase period with a 10% discount on top of that) ended up being a loss because the stock dropped 50% between the purchase of shares and delivery of the shares. The company was eventually bought out by 3M and I got a hundred bucks or so out of my initial investment (which was, thankfully only a thousand or two, if I recall correctly).
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by laurent92 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:11PM (#26186419)
A company sold for 3 million is... I mean, in average, I see that the worth is about 1m$ per employee. If you sold for less, your stock performed poorly compared to others. Maybe the product or the engineering was great, but on the wrong market or never met its window. Business is difficult.

The question is, would you have had excellent returns if the company had been worth $1m per employee?

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Cd00d on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:51PM (#26189010)
I think OP was saying the company 3M bought the startup. Not that the startup was sold for $3mm.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by saalweachter on Saturday February 20, 2021 @09:54AM (#26204492)
In addition to the $3m/3M confusion, don't forget preferential liquidation.

If you own 10% of a company and it sells for 2x the invested value, you might get < 5% of the sale price yourself once the investors are taken care of.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by FartyMcFarter on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:14PM (#26183378)
> The thing most people forget about options & RSU

These two are very different things and they shouldn't be conflated. If you have FAANG RSUs vesting every few months or every year, you can convert them to cold hard cash on a regular basis.

Options in a startup, or a company that isn't traded publicly are a different animal.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by walshemj on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:05PM (#26184718)
Very much so I (UK) have made some nice tax free returns on FTSE 100 companies share saves.

Pity we didn't get an exit back in 2000 when I had 0.5% of Poptel (everyone was a dollar millionaire at one point).

At the moment I have EMI shares in my current employer which vest on change of control

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by kelnos on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:59PM (#26187037)
I don't think that tracks with reality. If my company suddenly decided to do away with equity comp, they would not replace all the potential earnings with base salary. Base salary would be higher, sure, but still much lower than the salary+equity package.

I think more companies now have a policy where your RSUs vest every quarter, and there's no cliff (except for possibly the first new-hire grant[0]). So yes, it's delayed, but in practical terms you get your first vest within 3 months of getting the grant. (And if your company doesn't do refresh grants periodically, and equity is important to you, you should find another company.)

> Even when you hate your job, you will be hesitant to leave the company because of FOMO and sunk cost fallacy

This is unfortunately true. I do know people who aren't happy in their job (maybe not to the point of actively hating it), but stick around because of their golden handcuffs. I tend not to worry about that too much; they've decided[1] that being unhappy is worth the cash, and it's not a bad problem to have to be able to make that choice.

> That said, anecdotally, every one of my close circle of friends made decent amount money from equity

Exactly.

[0] Which I have a hard time complaining against. The company probably just spent $50k of its own resources to hire you, and I don't mind that they don't want to give you any equity until you've been there for a year.

[1] Then again, negotiation may be able to get similar equity terms at a new company that could presumably make them happy, and I think many people discount that fact.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by benlivengood on Saturday February 20, 2021 @01:14PM (#26206381)
> This is unfortunately true. I do know people who aren't happy in their job (maybe not to the point of actively hating it), but stick around because of their golden handcuffs.

For anyone "stuck" in this situation, recruiters from the other FAANGs you don't currently work at will try to match unvested shares in their offer. It always pays to interview once a year or so to see what the current offers are like, and it's fun to try out the other microkitchens. Well, until 2020 I guess.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by xapata on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:52PM (#26183915)
> my close circle of friends

That's extreme selection bias. One of the major ways startups recruit is via friends.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by hef19898 on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:34AM (#26190895)
Say what you want about Amazon, but at least they offset the fact that their RSUs vest somewhere between year 3 and 5 with stock price based (or whatever they estimate the stock price will be for next years) sign cash bonuses. Pretty fair solution, if you aks me.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by marcinzm on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:49AM (#26180391)
>Time is the most valuable commodity you have, don't squander it for lottery tickets and empty promises.

That goes the other way around too, the only way to have massive amounts of free time without going FIRE is to win the lottery. So why not throw the dice once or twice when you're young and then settle into a stable corporate job if it doesn't pay out?

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Swizec on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:20AM (#26180784)
Modern Silicon Valley lets you do both. Why not throw the dice and still make around $200k cash?

As a [good] engineer you can have your cake and eat it too. Sure it won’t make you a billionaire but you can live a comfy life, maybe win the lottery, and retire at 50 if the lottery fails.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tjs8rj on Friday February 19, 2021 @10:04AM (#26193908)
By the time a startup can pay you serious base cash compensation, I don’t think it’s likely they could also pay you serious equity compensation as an individual contributor. There’s no lottery ticket there, just trade offs. A lottery ticket is usually huge payoff or nothing. $500k or less, even a million or less doesn’t really sound like a lottery ticket (not to downplay how life changing that payoff could be).

Philosophically the lottery ticket scenario is your own startup or early startup employee, where your rationalization is >$10 mil or bust. Either certified “seriously rich” anywhere in the world or you just wasted your time. That’s a asymmetric payoff of a lottery ticket

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Swizec on Friday February 19, 2021 @10:31AM (#26194174)
I mean it depends right? Even employee 1000 at Google made many millions. And it’s rumored that the Lyft IPO made several hundred millionaires.

Hell, a friend of mine made about 1mil at IPO (on paper) and she’s a tech support manager. Not sure how early she joined but always said the cash was her highest salary ever.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by westurner on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:43AM (#26181123)
Living and working elsewhere with the wages of the region reduces expenses and opportunities; but the wealth of educational resources online [1][2] does make it feasible to even bootstrap a company on the side. Do you need to borrow money to scale quickly enough to pay expenses with sufficient cash flow for the foreseeable future?

Income sources: Passive income, Content, Equity that's potentially worth nothing, a backtested diversified portfolio (Golden Butterfly or All Weather Portfolio and why?) of sustainable investments, Business models [3]; Software implementations of solutions to businesses, organizations, and/or consumers' opportunities

Single-payer / Universal Healthcare is a looming family expense for many entrepreneurs; many of whom do get into entrepreneurship later in life.

Small businesses make up a significant portion of GDP. Small businesses have to have to accept risk.

There's still opportunity in the world.

[1] Startup School > Curriculum https://www.startupschool.org/curriculum

[2] https://www.ycombinator.com/library

[3] "Business models based on the compiled list at [HN]" https://gist.github.com/ndarville/4295324

From "Why companies lose their best innovators (2019)" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23887903 :

> "Intrapreneurial." What does that even mean? The employee, within their specialized department, spends resources (time, money, equipment) on something that their superior managers have not allocated funding for because they want: (a) recognition; (b) job security; (c) to save resources such as time and money; (d) to work on something else instead of this wasteful process; (e) more money.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ryandrake on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:41AM (#26182040)
I’d you are going to start something on the side, carefully read your current employment agreement, particularly the part about IP assignment. Most Silicon Valley companies I’ve worked with, including FAANGs, claim ownership of everything you produce, inside or outside of employment, at home or in office, using their equipment or yours. You don’t want to lick into a unicorn idea and have your former employer’s lawyers send you that letter...
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by philipswood on Saturday February 20, 2021 @12:37AM (#26201908)
Unusual data point (I'm not sure if South African practice is applicable elsewhere) , but most bigger corps I've worked at have provided a mechanism to declare external interests, pending management approval, to work around these global clauses.

On paper any IP would be default belong to the Corp, but after some discussion/negotiations with your line manager and his higher-ups, you could do the paper work to declare.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by moneywoes on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:08PM (#26182463)
Are these actually enforceable?
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ryandrake on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:19PM (#26182605)
It probably doesn’t matter in practice. They will have more lawyers and more money to burn on legal process than you. Who will go bankrupt first fighting a legal battle between you and, say, Apple?
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by dv_dt on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:01PM (#26185452)
In practice, I don't think I've ever seen a SV example of that kind of litigation from garage development of IP. Maybe I've just missed them?

Theft of IP from one company to a new company on the other hand there are multiple public examples of.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ptudan on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:59PM (#26183189)
The only time they'd actually sue is if you made something worth money. in that case, there's a good chance you can get investors to pay the lawsuit.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by triceratops on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:05PM (#26184720)
Investors would check if you were subject to an IP assignment clause in your employment contract prior to investing. It's part of basic due diligence. They would then most likely pass on the investment.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by lotsofpulp on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:00PM (#26183209)
It does matter in practice in California.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Mauricebranagh on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:39PM (#26182905)
If its "related" to your employers business yes - unless you agree a variation of the contract.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by alwaysdoit on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:41PM (#26186819)
I actually lost money when the first company I worked for sold.

At settle, I received a wire transfer for $7.22. The bank charged me a $15 incoming wire transfer fee.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wpietri on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:08PM (#26184097)
As somebody who also has a bunch of lottery tickets that didn't pay off, I feel your pain. But I think there's a bit of hindsight bias to your conclusion. I think it's entirely reasonable for people to trade salary for equity. I also think it's reasonable to stick with cash. As long as people are making well-informed choices, I'm entirely fine with gambling on a positive-sum effort.

That said, there are good questions about how much things have changed vs 25 years ago, how likely an early employee is to see a big payout on exit, and how much the fever for VC-backed startups distorts employee choices. But that's another rant.)

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by jjeaff on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:26PM (#26185013)
There is also something to be said for the information asymmetry between employer and employee. From the outside, it is hard to know what the odds of winning really look like. Founders are always painting a rosy picture of how close we are to breaking out or getting that next huge round of funding. The reality may be totally different. Things may actually be rather bleak and they are hoping to just limp along, paying low salaries and giving out worthless stock in hopes that just maybe they will hit the startup lottery.

At least with gambling, the house has to post the odds.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wpietri on Friday February 19, 2021 @11:44AM (#26194932)
Absolutely. And in addition to a pure information asymmetry, there's also a strong interpretive difference. A founder is generally going to be person who most believes in the company, so they'll value the stock more highly than anybody else. I think it's totally reasonable for a prospective employee to say, "I think the odds are good, but not that good" and lean toward cash.

One formulation I've used that helps is to say, "From data source X, your market-rate comp package is $Y/year. You decide how much of $Y you want to use to buy in now, at a price set by the most recent investment round." That only works if the company has enough access to capital, of course. And it does set the price as that of the most optimistic VC the company could find. But I like that it takes it out of the realm of personality-based negotiation.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by g9yuayon on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:49PM (#26183866)
Startup is not a lottery. Working for startup is risky, but the key is to build a system that increases your accumulated probability of success -- this is exactly why it's important to live in the bay area and work for some startups there, at least before the Covid-19. You get to see a large number of people who didn't fund any company, but still became financially independent or built an explosive career by choosing to join the right companies at the right time. You get to see how those people make their choices. You get to see how those people decide to jump ship. You get to build a social circle where you learn lots of first-hand information about startups.

Yes, it's still risky to join a startup, but no it's not a lottery. The chance of being rewarded handsomely is orders of magnitude higher than buying lottery.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by jjeaff on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:33PM (#26185113)
I wonder how many people each year make at least $1m from startup equity appreciation (that is actually liquid).

Because it's between 1500 and 2000 people that win at least $1m in lotteries in the US every year. Granted, lots more people play the lottery than start or join a startup, but it's an interesting comparison.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by TuringNYC on Friday February 19, 2021 @09:08AM (#26193269)
If you optimize for cash comp, you can invest the "extra" cash into thousands or even tens of thousands of lottery tickets of your choosing. They could be actual lottery tickets, or deep-out-of-the-money call options on FAANG or options on QQQ.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by g9yuayon on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:41PM (#26185220)
I'm not sure if the calculation is correct. 2000 people winning lotteries out of at least millions of people, right? Yet in the startup word, it is thousands of people out a few hundreds of thousands? Another factor to consider is that your equity keeps giving, while lottery is a one-off deal.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by CydeWeys on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:32PM (#26182795)
> Equity comes third. If you work for a FAANG, maybe equity can move higher up (though it remains to be seen how long this will be true).

Tech companies are the largest companies in the US economy these days. They are the economy. For better or worse they're now too big to fail, and in some severe recession they would end up being bailed out like the banks were in 2008 since the alternative is a complete economic implosion.

I treat my RSUs as cash that has some variance to it (less variance than crypto, and roughly the same as the stock market overall). I even auto-sell them.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by nojvek on Friday February 19, 2021 @12:37AM (#26190136)
I'm not saying base salary is not important. It very much is. You need at-least somewhat a comfortable amount where money stops being a major issue. You can pay mortgage, go for a couple of vacations and have a decent amount in savings.

At Microsoft, it would be hard to cross $10m over 5 years, unless you're a really big shot. At a startup that rises to be a deca-unicorn, if you joined 5-7 years ago, that would be possible. Dropbox, AirBnb, Doordash e.t.c probably minted quite a few deca-millionares on their IPOs. Entry level folks would have made that much. That's what I mean by equity and skin in the game. Sure, there is a lot more risk but your upside is also huge. You can see how your work moves top line ARR and incentivizes you to focus on customers and build what they want and will pay for.

Sure at GOOG, MSFT, FB e.t.c once you go above senior to staff level, your equity/RSU component starts to be more valuable than the base salary. That's what I mean by skin in the game and proportional rewards. However those rewards can be unproportional once you have a large chain of managers. It incentivizes doing things that lead to climbing ladder rather than doing things that are good for your customers and long term ARR. Sometimes it's related, sometimes not. At a true startup, if it's unrelated the startup dies.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Viliam1234 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:42AM (#26182045)
In my humble opinion, Bitcoin is a better lottery that equity, because it does not require you to work till 2am in morning.

Instead of equity, ask for higher salary, and invest the difference in cryptocurrencies, stock market, and even the old-fashioned lottery. Maybe a bit of everything, to balance the portfolio. Your chances are not worse, and you can go sleep before the midnight.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wpietri on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:16PM (#26184192)
I think an important difference between equities (your company's options, the regular stock market) and the other things (lottery tickets, digital commodities like Bitcoin, and traditional commodities like gold) is that equities are overall positive sum. The point of (most) businesses is to create value greater than their inputs. Speculating on commodities is in theory zero sum, but in practice negative. Actual lotteries are clearly negative sum. (US state lotteries return only about 60% of the input money as prizes.)

So if people aren't sure what to do with surplus time/cash, equity will (on average, over the long haul) produce a better return. Buying an index fund gives you zero control but good odds on a steady return; trading your time for equity (a company you start or one you join) gives you more control and narrow odds on a higher return.

There's no one right answer here, though. I'm happy with the startups I've done, but right now I'm happy to be banking a steady salary. A lot of this depends on one's situation in life and one's personal values, especially risk tolerance.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by xwolfi on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:53AM (#26182225)
Well but how do you get the money to buy any bitcoin in the first place ?

You don't invest in crypto currencies, you join early enough to sell to the next level of the pyramid you convince via social media post :s

But well you're right to say people should balance portfolio, I however don't see the value of the lottery, it's like paying taxes twice, with no chance of winning ever. At least bitcoin slowly loses value, a lottery ticket will lost its entire value a few days after purchase in 99.9999% of cases

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tcoff91 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:33PM (#26183643)
Bitcoin slowly loses value? Even those who bought the very top in 2017 have more than doubled their money if they didn't sell. Bitcoin, when it does lose value, loses it very quickly but on longer time horizons nobody has ever lost money by holding bitcoin for 3+ years. That being said, buying at current levels is extraordinarily risky and more equivalent to gambling than anything else.

The expected ROI of the lottery is so low though It's hard to take someone seriously that mentions playing the lottery as an actual smart financial move.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by np- on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:32PM (#26184368)
People doubled their money on paper in unrealized gains. But since Bitcoin is being sold as a store of value and not as a medium of exchange nowadays, if you want to realize that value you need to sell. Where's that cash coming from? Other buyers, i.e. the next layer of suckers as indicated in OP's post. And if enough people decide to sell, then those doubled/tripled/etc values aren't going to last very long.

Note I'm not saying that it's not possible to win in this system - clearly some people will, at the expense of many others. Perhaps it's my own ignorance, but I genuinely struggle to see how this isn't a zero sum game.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by kragen on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:56AM (#26191002)
Same's true of gold, silver, or cash-settled fresh bacon index futures. Consequently such commodities tend to have long-run zero returns, or returns that just equal the per-capita GDP growth rate, depending on how you look at it. I've watched people lose fortunes at that poker table.

The fresh bacon index is maybe less exposed to this kind of thing because, unless the world mass-converts to Judaism or something, someone will pay to eat bacon, so there's a floor on how low the value can go. But gold? Industrial use of gold is minuscule compared to speculative gold trading. Today GC trades at US$1773 per troy ounce, which is 10% down from a few months ago, late 02020, and 100% up from 02008. In 02001 it was barely above US$200. It could drop to US$200 again, and everyone who bought today and held will have lost 80% of what they invested.

That can happen with fresh bacon, too. What's different with gold is that, if enough people decide to sell, it could drop to US$20. It could drop to US$2. Or it could rise to US$20000. We have more history about gold: it's been a precious metal for many millennia and a widespread currency for the last three. So it's a lot less likely for it to lose 99% or 99.9% of its value like that, or go up 100× (though, as I said, it's gone up very close to 10× in a mere score of years.)

People — and, especially, central banks and governments — invest in gold because they dont think it's likely for that to happen, and because it doesn't have the secular inflationary tendency that fiat currencies do. It may bounce up and down by a factor of 10 in a couple of decades, but in 01687 it was probably also within that same factor-of-10 band.

They're not looking for an expectation of profit when they seek a "store of value".

They're just looking to reduce the risk of indigency.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ZephyrBlu on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:45PM (#26184509)
The stock market is zero sum as well... When one person wins, another loses.

Are people buying Google, Facebook and Amazon stock suckers as well?

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by np- on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:37PM (#26186759)
Well, no comment on if they're suckers or not, but I think this is a misunderstanding of what a share in a company is. With a share, you own something with actual tangential value, i.e. claim on dividends/voting rights/cash flow/etc. Plus the company itself can actually go and do valuable things and make money - Apple can go and sell a bunch of iPhones and make a ton of money, and then reward their investors through dividends, buybacks, etc. That's not zero sum, there was something of value created and provided to the world. I do understand that in reality many people play the stock market like it's a casino, but that doesn't change the fact that it's still fundamentally different.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Animats on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:20PM (#26184931)
Stocks have dividends. The value of a stock is the present value of all future dividends. Otherwise you're hoping to find a greater fool.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Galanwe on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:07PM (#26188654)
> The value of a stock is the present value of all future dividend

That is an idea from the 70s. Not many people would agree that there is an actual fair value for a stock anymore, much less that it is driven solely by accrued future dividends.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by georgeecollins on Friday February 19, 2021 @02:29AM (#26190590)
>> That is an idea from the 70s.

No, that is an idea from economics predating the 1970s. Did you mean the 1870s? It predates that.

You can value a stock however you like. Good luck, I wish you well.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Galanwe on Friday February 19, 2021 @08:02AM (#26192667)
> No, that is an idea from economics predating the 1970s. Did you mean the 1870s? It predates that.

It really depends on what level of formalism you consider to be the basis of "the idea". I'm referring to the "dividend discount model" (DDM) here, which to me is the first real well defined model of this idea in modern economy. Exposed in early 60s and democratized in the 70s:

"The dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing a company's stock price based on the theory that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value."

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Animats on Friday February 19, 2021 @02:28AM (#26190585)
After a while, reality comes back to bite you.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tcoff91 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @06:55PM (#26187563)
More and more companies are moving away from dividends to buy backs so for many stocks you have to sell to realize profits.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Animats on Friday February 19, 2021 @02:12AM (#26190529)
Yes, because stock buybacks reward management with options. Dividends do not. Many countries don't allow a company to buy its own stock.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tcoff91 on Friday February 19, 2021 @10:39AM (#26194267)
Stock buybacks are more tax advantageous to investors than dividends. The price goes up and you sell some shares and pay long term capital gains if you’ve held for more than a year. This is cheaper than paying income tax on dividends.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by petters on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:13PM (#26185631)
The stock market is certainly not zero sum.

Bitcoin provides very little value outside speculation, not zero, but very little. That is the difference.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tcoff91 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @07:12PM (#26187698)
Crypto provides global access to a decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant financial system. Bitcoin provides a savings vehicle that has a completely predictable and transparent supply. That's very valuable.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by andresp on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:32PM (#26188369)
Why do you care so much about predictable supply if the price is anything but predictable? How is such high volatility commodity a good storage of value? It might be a good speculation vehicle, but people looking to store value typically look for something more stable.

It remains to be seen how resistant Bitcoin is if powerful governments really decide to take it down.

Bitcoin and Blockchain is an interesting project but 1 BTC > 50k USD... Yeah, sure...

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by throwaway3699 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:58PM (#26189069)
It doesn't matter if there's some instability, as long as it's not a downward trend.

> Bitcoin and Blockchain is an interesting project but 1 BTC > 50k USD... Yeah, sure...

Bitcoin could conceivably become the next global reserve currency, 50k USD is horribly undervalued from that PoV.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by repartix on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:05PM (#26189548)
I applaud you for asking good questions.

> Why do you care so much about predictable supply if the price is anything but predictable?

Because the price will go higher. When the price goes over $x MM per BTC it will be very predictable.

> How is such high volatility commodity a good storage of value?

It stores more value than any other commodity. When the stock market started in 1920s it was no less volatile than Bitcoin. Volatility is a sign of disruption as much as it is a sign of value.

> 1 BTC > 50k USD... Yeah, sure...

If only you could see the data I'm seeing.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by andresp on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:09AM (#26190748)
"Because the price will go higher" isn't really an answer. You can either explain it or you just have faith that it will do what you want. People could use that same argument for everything.

The stock market was never meant to be a way to store value but a public tool to finance and own projects that actually produce economic value. Comparing it to the bitcoin market is a false equivalence.

But best of luck for your investments.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wwtrv on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:28AM (#26190857)
The NYSE was opened in the 1790’s and even in the 20’s stock volatility was significantly smaller compared to bitcoin, DJIA “only” grew around 5 times between 1920 and 1929 (so comparable to the decade between 2009 and 2020).

To find something on a similiar scale to bitcoin you might actually need to go back to the 18th or 17th centuries (see the “South Sea Bubble” or the “Tulip Mania”).

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by iancmceachern on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:52AM (#26182209)
Great thought! It doesn't have to be crypto, it could be any reasonable investment...
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by sharkweek on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:43PM (#26183773)
Friend of mine left MSFT back in the early 2010s for a startup that is set to IPO in the next year or two if all the prevailing winds remain relatively similar.

He'll do pretty well in the IPO because he has some of those early enough options as one of the first 25ish employees.

BUT!!!He left MSFT at $30-40ish a share, now worth $240 a share. Unfortunately, he divested most of it into more general index which has been fine, but not 6x.

He would have EASILY covered whatever money he's likely to make in the IPO by just staying at Microsoft and holding company shares for the last 9 years, and in fact probably would have made way more given stock rewards/promotions/salary increases etc.

That being said, he has enjoyed working at the startup and it has propelled him into a role that he wouldn't have been in at MSFT or any other big company so there is that to consider as well.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by t0mas88 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:24PM (#26185809)
Investing in the right single stock always outperforms the index. But risk adjusted returns may not be better than a diversified portfolio, Microsoft could also have dropped due to some scandal whereas the downside risk of a balanced portfolio is much smaller.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by sharkweek on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:56PM (#26186225)
Absolutely, and him and I both know this, but... I still like to remind him of it (only because we're close enough to prod each other like this).
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by trimbo on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:12PM (#26185623)
> The vast majority of startups go bust before IPO or acquisition

In recent times, these giant late rounds with the amount of preference given mean that when acquisition happens, it often doesn't pay out for regular employees/common stock. The common stock employees get is for the moon or bust, or hope an acquiring company is generous.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ptmcc on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:02PM (#26186291)
The best many non-founders can hope for is a cushy acqui-hire deal.

I've had several friends have the startups they worked for acquired, and their equity was worth nothing due to valuation and unfavorable liquidation preferences.

They got a nice hiring package from a big company, but not significantly better than one can get from applying on your own. And the opportunity cost of taking a below-market wage for several years probably nets out to a loss in pure dollar terms.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by spoonjim on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:16PM (#26184193)
The flip side is that I valued my equity at $0 when I joined but it’s now worth $2 million.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by yibg on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:14PM (#26188227)
I don't know if it's that black and white. The risk calculus changes based on stage of the startup for example. Joining doordash pre IPO is still more risky than google, but I there's some reasonable confidence it'll be of some value soon.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by brailsafe on Friday February 19, 2021 @06:06AM (#26191794)
Salary paid is salary owned. A company can only take away what they haven't given you. Options are not owned, only potentially owned.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by kelnos on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:54PM (#26186977)
I agree with your overall premise, but I think you and the parent are talking about fundamentally different things.

If I'm at a startup and I'm constantly working 14 hour days, I want equity. Because I am not going to work 14 hour days (or even 10 hour days) for just a normal base salary. I mean, sure, I wouldn't mind instead taking 4x a normal base salary to work those 14 hour days, but no company (startup or established business) is going to give you that deal. That equity may end up being worth nothing over the long term, but by joining an early startup, I am betting on a solid founding team and the product, and the team's ability to execute. And because it's a small team, I'm betting that I personally can be a big component in whether or not the company succeeds or fails. (Often it'll succeed or fail despite what I do, but that's not the point.)

We can debate the wisdom (with regard to productivity and health outcomes) of working habitual 14 hour days at all in the first place, but the bottom line is that if I'm going to be pouring so much of my life into something, I at least want the possibility (even if the probability is low) of a life-changing financial outcome. It's pretty rare that you're going to get that with a base salary, even at a larger, well-established, public company that has decently high growth.

And I get it, some people just don't want to make the base vs. illiquid-equity trade off. An early-stage startup is probably not for those people anyway, and there's nothing wrong with that. I did it three times: one was a complete flop (after I'd paid to exercise options that became worthless shares), one was a mediocre flop (got out of there in under a year, knew they were incapable of shipping, turned out I was right), and one was more successful than I ever expected. And yet I'm happy I joined all three, even the first one.

> Outside of FAANG (and top executives at F500 sized public companies) very few people are getting rich off of the "equity" component of their TC.

Not even at* FAANG. A new hire (today) at one of those companies is not going to get a life-changing equity grant. A hire from back when they were relatively new companies (or, as with Apple, down in the dumps circa 2000) can get that. But, a hire at that point will be expected to work more (often much more) than a normal 8-hour day.

I think people forget that a mulit-millionaire Googler who has been there since 2003 and is still there now is likely mainly rich because of the equity they got in the first 3 or 4 years. As companies mature, their equity comp declines rapidly. If that same person had joined Google 5 or 7 or even 10 years ago as an individual contributor, their equity comp would not make them rich; they're now getting most of their wealth from base salary.

> The vast majority of startups go bust before IPO or acquisition.

Right. And that's why you shouldn't join a startup because you expect to get rich. You should join because you like that style of work better than large-corporation life. But if they're going to expect you to pour your life into that startup, you should get a big chunk of equity that can -- if things work out -- compensate you for those long hours someday.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by onion2k on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:09AM (#26179949)
Equity is what builds wealth.

In exceptional circumstances, yes. In most circumstances equity in a startup ends up being worthless, even in the event of exit. Starting your own startup, or joining a startup as a very early employee can make you rich; anything else and you might as well be buying lottery tickets.

That's not to denigrate startups in any way. Working in a startup is amazing. It's just not how you get rich as an employee unless you are staggeringly lucky.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ashtonkem on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:24AM (#26180083)
Even when they’re not worthless, most startup options end up being worth less than the salary that one could’ve gotten at a non-startup. Last time I looked into it, and it was a while ago, the median startup option package was exercised for a profit of $30k, not nothing but far less than what one could’ve gotten at a large company like ... Microsoft.

Arguably the existence of several different types of stock options has broken the startup option system, incentivizing founders to play financial games with dilution and debt, and separating their incentive structure from that of their workers. Instead they now get paid with the VCs, which is bad for the workers.

Nothing is worth working like a dog though. That’s always a bad trade.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by scruple on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:41AM (#26181098)
> most startup options end up being worth less than the salary that one could’ve gotten at a non-startup

I took a lower salary to work at a startup I "believed" in. We were eventually acquired and my options were in the low six-figures when exercised. I worked there for 6 years. If I average the options profit and add it to my base salary, I'd have still been underpaid in the local area for my skills and experience level. And that's to say nothing of what the event did to my taxes that year.

> Nothing is worth working like a dog though. That’s always a bad trade.

I never worked like a dog for the place in my story, at least. It had a very sane work/life balance.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ashtonkem on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:22AM (#26181746)
> I never worked like a dog for the place in my story, at least. It had a very sane work/life balance.

For sure not every single startup overworks it’s employees, and not every overworked employee works at a startup. But there is a very common (but not universal!) trend for startup employees to be encouraged to overwork themselves so that their options will be worth more in the long run.

Your mileage may vary, as yours did.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Kranar on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:06PM (#26183285)
I don't know how common it actually is. You hear about the startups that overwork employees far more than you hear about startups where people have a good work life balance, but there could be many reasons including the big one being that happy people who live well balanced lives don't tend to talk about it.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by solidasparagus on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:48PM (#26183859)
Startups tend to have poor engineering management (due to lack of time and experience) and that can easily lead to overworking employees.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by BurningFrog on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:09AM (#26180656)
> the median startup option package was exercised for a profit of $30k

That must be one of those cases where "median" and "average" are very different.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by lotsofpulp on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:18AM (#26181697)
There are many different kinds of averages. Median average, arithmetic mean average, geometric mean average, mode average.

People frequently, and intentionally when it comes to politics, use the word average to muddy the information and evoke whatever emotion they want rather than specify the type of average.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by htrp on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:32PM (#26183624)
^ This guy stats...

In non normally distributed populations, the average is misleading because of skew at either end of the curve.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by onion2k on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:07AM (#26181542)
Which is exactly why you should look at the median.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by BurningFrog on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:12PM (#26182511)
The median won't tell you the difference between 20% chance of making $1k and $1M.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by fallingknife on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:28AM (#26180903)
Are you sure that's the median? I would think that they are worth 0 >50% of the time.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ojbyrne on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:08PM (#26184764)
0 doesn’t fit in the category “exercised for a profit.”
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ska on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:04AM (#26181483)
It might only be counting equity that returned something, in which case 30k seems plausible.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by hinkley on Thursday February 18, 2021 @07:29PM (#26187859)
If you include wear and tear in that calculation, then it’s definitely true. A couple years of austerity and socking a bigger salary into investments is less stressful and a surer bet, even if it pays off less some of the time.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Justsignedup on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:54AM (#26180454)
Yeah if your stake isn't significant even in case of a huge exit, you're not making even close to what you'd make at a faang even in case of a massive ipo
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by landryraccoon on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:08PM (#26186357)
> how you get rich as an employee

How do you get rich as an employee then? Because I've never heard of any salaried line engineer getting rich except through winning the startup lottery. I sure have friends who have done exceptionally well by working for the right startup with the right acquisition however.

Even Google engineers don't feel rich when they have to stretch to afford the down payment on a house in Mountain View.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ignoramous on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:37AM (#26180212)
> Equity is what builds wealth.

Comes with a lot of caveats, though [0]. Amazon and likely Microsoft, has made many people wealthy, too. The surge in BigTech stock prices over the years has been nothing short of extraordinary, and there's no indication of that slowing down as more enterprises move to the cloud and even more consumers take to the Internet.

Also, overworking like a start-up employee isn't necessarily what a start-up is about: A start-up's value is in its under-the-radar disruptive potential (that is, being dismissed by the incumbents as a mere "toy"). That said, a start-up must capture as much value it can (this is where working hard, being highly flexible, and moving fast likely matters) from the market it helps create, lest it be subject to irrelevance; but this part comes a bit later in a start-up's life, at which point (the start-up is no longer under-the-radar and investors are circling around it like bees) its stock-options wouldn't likely make an engineer "generational wealth" either (different story for executives) but would have to work hard anyway.

Read also: https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/

[0] https://mashable.com/tech/2854/how-amazons-97-million-eero-a...

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wwww4all on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:30AM (#26180144)
Most engineers at startups get very little equity and most end up worthless due to dilution or failure.

Even if engineers hit the startup lottery, the payout for most are not that much. Very few end with multi million dollar payouts.

Statistically, financials are better with big company offers for most engineers.

Some engineers that get in early with a unicorn can hit the jackpot. This is mostly combination of timing and luck and network. Some just happened to be in the right place at the right time with right group of people. PayPal engineers, early Google engineers.

Early Apple engineers were not so lucky.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by codemac on Thursday February 18, 2021 @05:34PM (#26186732)
This is why it was a founder that complained about the equity/pay problems, rather than any engineer.

If they actually rewarded their Waze employees with enough equity, the employees would have pushed much harder to not get acquired and been much more upset afterwards. You should be highly suspect of any investor or founder that thinks an acquisition is a successful outcome.

What's clear is that Waze employees finally got compensated fairly, and the founders suddenly didn't have 100x upside. There's a reason it's a founder with the frown at TGIF at Google, and all the employees are excited and smiling.

They're finally getting paid.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by stuff4ben on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:42AM (#26181104)
Yes, while financially you may be better with BigCorp, there are some benefits of startups that I experienced first hand. First is the experience of being a fast-moving startup and the comradeship that you build with your colleagues. I'm still friends with people I worked with at my first startup 15 years ago. Second is the learning experience of being around very smart people. I learned so much in my 4 years at my first startup. From how startups work (and that my equity was worthless) to how to do modern (at the time) development in Java. Finally, as someone mentioned earlier, you get to see how your work moves the needle. That feedback cycle is addictive! Also, you can see when you screw up the opposite happen (I once personally caused a loss of a couple hundred dollars in revenue due to a bad SQL query).
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ghaff on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:34AM (#26180983)
Apple stock was essentially a flat line until about 2004. At which point, a random person who put in $10,000 would today have $4,000,000 had they held.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by vinger on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:29PM (#26183590)
Another point. If you are outside of SV / California your startup payouts are generally very small.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by somberi on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:59AM (#26179852)
I would like to offer an extended view from the wealth accumulation angle. True, equity builds wealth, but in a startup, since there is no floor protection, when the startup becomes worthless (can happen for any number of reasons, and often do), then one wishes one had taken a salary (and reinvested in stocks or as seed investment - ways to gain equity exposure).

One could argue that PowerBI, in this example, gained any traction at all because it benefited from the large customer base and marketing muscle of Microsoft.

To extend further on the point Nojvek makes about how PowerBI moved very little of the topline revenues of the company; this also means that the bonus accrued to the author was because _some other team moved the needle_. This grouping of risk for a mean payoff, could be a desirable outcome as well, if one has better avenues to invest the capital. It all comes down to how one views risk, its mitigation, and wealth accumulation horizon.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by munificent on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:54PM (#26183121)
> when the startup becomes worthless (can happen for any number of reasons, and often do), then one wishes one had taken a salary (and reinvested in stocks or as seed investment - ways to gain equity exposure).

Well, sure. And when the startup becomes worth billions, one wishes they had taken the options instead of a higher salary.

This is just an observation that having information lets you make better decisions. Unfortunately, most of the best information lives at a point in the future after we must make the decision.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by thegginthesky on Thursday February 18, 2021 @02:29PM (#26184334)
The point is that the odds of any startup to be worth billions, or for an employee stock option be worth a lot more than accumulated high base salary, is very very low.

So if one optimizes by using the expected value over time the conclusion is that high base salary tends to trump employee equity. One can make this sort of inference at any point in time, without hindsight at all.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by enra on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:44PM (#26189860)
Joining a startup is not some game roulette where you gave zero information about potential outcomes and just choose randomly one number.

You as an employee have a lot of agency to find the startup to join that you think has potential. If the startups or founders are unwilling to share their thinking then it’s probably a bad sign.

Think about Stripe when they started. The whole story was that most tech and other companies need payments but it’s a hard problem and back in the day we had do merchant accounts. Makes sense, and there is a clear business and maybe as you talk to the team, you are impressed. They raised from Sequoia and other too VCS. Great, sounds like good company. Obviously there are risks. What if they get shutdown? what if PayPal/visa/Google builds this? Maybe the product will suck?

Compare Stripe to something like pet walking startup Wag which also has raised tons of money. Do you think it’s easier to make money by charging % on business revenue or charging % people walking other peoples pets?

There are always risks and unknowns but it’s not a random throw dice which company you join. Probably there has never been a time it would have seemed a terrible idea to join Stripe, at most it would have seemed uncertain and risky. They could have failed too but now they are a $100B+ company, and your employee equity would be worth $1M-100M depending when you joined.

If you join a random startup, you take a random chance. If you do your research and thinking you can increase your odds like you can increase your odds on the public markets. You can also optimize for the team or domain you want to work in, and even if the startup fails, you might have learned something.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by tjs8rj on Friday February 19, 2021 @10:25AM (#26194121)
The expected value is a fine way of looking at it. There’s other ways that favor the startup though. Working at SV startups your whole working life will still probably result in retiring very comfortably, with some fraction of the money your friend who worked at established companies their whole life.

At the midrange of the preference curve that’s a problem, but you’re still likely in the same order of magnitude of wealth. The difference is if you have a strong desire to have an order of magnitude more wealth, you often can’t do that in established companies only. At the least you can bounce into startups for the executive and leadership experience then bounce back to established companies at a managerial role, but by then you probably have the experience and connections to make a startup with its huge potential payoffs more likely.

If retirement comfort is what you seek, you will likely get reach that at startups too, but you will likely only see those massive payoffs with startups.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Uehreka on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:40AM (#26181062)
This is also an issue I’ve seen with companies that began as startups, but then transitioned into the “big company” phase: Founders and early employees complain that “when we were getting started, we could’ve gotten this feature done in a week! What’s taking so long?” There tends to be frustration that employees won’t work nights and weekends, even though their work could “turn this company into the next Amazon!”

When you bring up the fact that the difference is that they have equity and you don’t, and that they would materially benefit from growth but you wouldn’t, they tend to get grumpy. But they never do have a better answer.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by daemin on Saturday February 20, 2021 @06:12AM (#26203318)
I said this thing in response to Game Development crunch, which also applies to startups. The original creators of the company, now people in charge, have equity and that is a big reason they worked so hard to grow the company from nothing into what it is today. Therefore when they ask (or subconciously demand through company culture) to crunch or work overtime they should give out equity as an extra part of the compensation for working extra hours.

Part of this is to align the founders' and employees motivations so they're more in sync, as both parties now have some form of upside to work hard and see the company grow.

Another part of this is to make the shareholders and founders really think about the culture and how they expect other people to work. So if they want a culture that is about putting in many hours and effort then they should be prepared to lose a little bit of ownership to make that happen. If they're not comfortable with that then they this will act as a disincentive for them, so they fix the culture and their expectations and people can have a normal work schedule.

One final note is that with whatever system there will be people that end up exploiting it, and as ever that's a people management problem. Hopefully with a trustworthy culture this will not happen.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by AtlasBarfed on Friday February 19, 2021 @04:22PM (#26198197)
UnitedHealthCare is an example of this on steroids.

UHC basically can't show a huge profit. Otherwise they'd be subject to investigations and pilloried for profiting off of the misery that is the US health care system.

But they make money hand over fist, because... it's the US healthcare system, and they have an effective monopoly/dominant cartel position as one of the four pigs at the trough (trial lawyers, doctors, insurance, drug/device companies). So instead of profits, a gigantic management tree has built up, and the managers take all the money.

Then tell their workers they aim for the bottom third of market compensation.

Colleges seem to me the same way: no "profits", but suck in huge amounts of money as the tuition skyrockets. Hmmm, and suddenly a huge administrative/management/MBA apparatus has appeared in higher education? You don't say.

Salary was basically a contract with employees to take steady income and employment (once upon a time ....) while the management layer and stockholders will eat the gravy. Motivation in that contract is strictly around 1) access to management for the "ambitious" and 2) don't get fired for the rest.

Hand in hand in IT with not being able to get things done quickly is that doing things quickly is high risk, and that violates the core motivation of almost everyone in the #2 don't get fired crowd.

Salaries = risk aversion.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by decebalus1 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:59AM (#26180536)
> Startups work because you have skin in the game, when you build something people want, you get to reap rewards proportional to it.

Eh... not really. Especially not for the rank-and-file employees. Most don't get proportional rewards even if the company exits successfully. Unless you're a founder or one of the early employees, for the high percentile of successful startups, rewards are proportional with what you'd have gotten at FAANG companies during the same time.

Not to diminish your experience, but I think the idea there was that you get to work on something 'risky' but regardless of its success you'll still get your paycheck, health insurance benefits. And if it goes belly up, you can just do a lateral move to Azure or whatever instead of worrying about the very existence of the company.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by g9yuayon on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:15PM (#26184859)
Many comments below focus on failures with a single startup. I think it misses the point. Working for startups is risky, but the key is to build a system that increases your accumulated probability of success -- this is exactly why it's important to live in the bay area and work for some startups there, at least before the Covid-19. You get to see a large number of people who didn't fund any company, but still became financially independent by choosing to join the right companies at the right time. You get to see how those people make their choices. You get to see how those people decide to jump ship. You get to build a social circle where you learn lots of first-hand information about startups. There are a few simple steps that worked well for many people (again, no guarantee of success, but they do increase accumulated probability of finding the right company).

- You bet on product you love. Airbnb/Pinterest/Uber before 2013, Netflix before 2010, FB before 2009, Google before 2003, Databriks before 2017, Tesla before 2017.

- You bet on sectors. SDN, gig economy, search, big data, and etc.

- You bet on company's productivity - the customers/engineer grows exponentially without Uber-style marketing cost - Instagram/WhatsApp; the company releases features faster than they hire - Google; people deliver without working like a dog - Netflix

- You bet on people you know or you admire

- You bet on the leaders in each sector

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Spooky23 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:58AM (#26180517)
It’s a no true Scotsman scenario. Obviously working on a “startup” in a big company isn’t the same as starting a new company.

But... you get to enjoy the bigco benefits and security while avoiding a lot of bigco bullshit. I did something like this in a public sector org. We got to do something new and exciting, many of the team ended up getting promoted, and the big shots got to pay themselves on the back too. We did not get rich, but we did not risk much.

Generally speaking, if you want to build wealth on a short horizon, working for someone is the hardest path.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Mauricebranagh on Thursday February 18, 2021 @12:43PM (#26182963)
Lol I remember volunteering for a ground breaking RAD / DSDM ? Agile web project in 94.

BT gave me a £25 pound voucher which I put together with my previous projects £25 voucher and brought a diamond Rio MP3 player.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ma2rten on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:40AM (#26180251)
You can have payouts proportional to success even in big companies. Google famously payed $120M to Anthony Levandowski. This is because there was an agreement in place to pay projects in X based on the value that they create.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ryandrake on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:52AM (#26182201)
True, but this is a vanishingly small edge case. You generally have to be a certain person to negotiate something like this with a big company. Surely the "Ninth Cog Engineer From The Left" at Waymo will not have the negotiating power to get this kind of profit-sharing or pay-for-value comp package.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by CobrastanJorji on Thursday February 18, 2021 @01:00PM (#26183203)
I recall reading somewhere that Waymo had retention problems due to many of the early engineers were given so much money that they simply no longer cared to work. I don't know how true that is, but I believe it.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ssk2 on Friday February 19, 2021 @11:06AM (#26194544)
The Verge reported on this [1] in 2017-

> Bloomberg says that early staffers “had an unusual compensation system” that multiplied staffers' salaries and bonuses based on the performance of the self-driving project. The payments accumulated as milestones were reached, even though Waymo remains years away from generating revenue. One staffer eventually “had a multiplier of 16 applied to bonuses and equity amassed over four years.” The huge amounts of compensation worked — for a while. But eventually, it gave many staffers such financial security that they were willing to leave the cuddly confines of Google.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2017/2/13/14599186/google-waymo-sel...

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by ma2rten on Thursday February 18, 2021 @06:33PM (#26187347)
I think the same deal applied to all projects at X at the time. The other projects were just not all successful.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by wwww4all on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:02PM (#26185476)
This has more to do with negotiation skills. Anthony Levandowki also negotiated deal with Uber to pay him more money. He knew his value and negotiated hard, and got paid by 2 companies.

Every engineer should learn from Anthony about understanding the value and negotiating hard with companies. Companies will pay up for in demand skills.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by DamnYuppie on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:48AM (#26181202)
Equity can also be bought with your excess capital for you work. At the current market salary for developers it should be quite obtainable to live well below your income and invest a sizeable portion of it in the markets, either stock or realestate. Do this for 10 years and about 20 years later you will have many millions of dollars.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by sytelus on Friday February 19, 2021 @05:11AM (#26191411)
This is quite one sides view. There are many many examples such as Word, Excel, Google Maps, Gmail, FB Messanger etc started as “startup within big co”. Initially they were small, people worked hard and then they become very big. When they were small (<50) people, those early folks ripped similar rewards as early startup employees. Many later became distinguished engineers, CVPs raking many millions over the years. I don’t know when you joined PowerBI but the probability of you getting disproportionate rewards if you weren’t in first 50 employees in usual startup is not very high either.

I don’t agree with thesis in this article. Yes, most startup efforts in big co fails but failure rate is probably not worse than usual startups. For successful startups within big co, rewards are pretty huge as well. For Waze case, I had argue that they were already running out of steam when they joined Google even though they continued growth. It wouldn’t be feasible for them to compete effectively while growing exponentially with strong and free product like Google Maps as their competition. I am doubtful if Waze employees would have faired vastly better as independent startup.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by Decker87 on Friday February 19, 2021 @09:33PM (#26200946)
That's a good point and a fine distinction about whether the success is higher or lower. The point that Noam makes is more that its different. It's not a startup anymore. That probably means less chance of abject failure or success.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by 1vuio0pswjnm7 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:39PM (#26188904)
Jeff Bezos: "It's Day One."

Ah, not quite. At that early stage, the risk and opportunities are different. He wants his employees to to work as hard as if it were Day One, but he cannot offer 10s of thousands of workers the same possibilities as if they arrived on Day One.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by zalequin on Friday February 19, 2021 @11:27AM (#26194772)
I think Bezos referred to the mindset of the people who live and die by the success of the company - namely the founders and executives who are responsible for making sure it succeeds.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by 1vuio0pswjnm7 on Friday February 19, 2021 @04:28PM (#26198248)
Do they live and die by the success of the company. If the business starts to decline who is terminated first. The founders and executives. The audience for the letter from this quote is taken is not only founders and executives, it is Amazon employees, investors, potential investors and analysts, i.e., the public.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by 6gvONxR4sf7o on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:41AM (#26182028)
I don’t think the issue is that working at a pseudo startup doesn’t pay enough while a real startup does. Startups almost always pay less than big companies. Even most of the successful ones. For a worker, the pseudo startup is a great option. You get a high base salary, and a large stock grant, and the high growth stock we’ve seen at a lot of the big companies over a reasonably long period. By the end of your vesting, your $125k cash + $75k RSU = $200k/yr has (using apple growth, which is reasonably FAANG representative) grown to $125k + $245k RSUs = $370k/yr assuming no promotions and a linear vest.

Equity does build wealth, and BigCo equity does it much more reliably than a real startup.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by UncleOxidant on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:09PM (#26185564)
You can certainly work like a dog in an actual startup with the hope that your equity will someday be worth something... only to have it be worth nothing because the company didn't make it. This is what happens in the vast majority of startups as few startups end up making the big time.
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by kerng on Friday February 19, 2021 @12:36PM (#26195572)
Good comment.

It seems the only ones benefiting are the partners in these companies - who actually try to create that startup narrative and get the compensation in return.

If a group within a large company tries to advertise as startup, it's a big red flag.

One should join a company like Microsoft to learn and see how things are done in a mature place and to have good work life balance with reasonable pay - then if you want take that knowledge and experience with you outside to a startup if you want.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by HeavyStorm on Tuesday February 23, 2021 @09:39AM (#26237778)
Hmm, you are at least talking about a tech startup on a big tech company.

I've seen many attempts of hosting (incubating?) a startup in a traditional company like a financial institution. That's what really isn't possible.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by otabdeveloper4 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @03:13PM (#26184839)
Monetary compensation is only part of the equation.

Having "the guy who made PowerBI" on your resume can be worth more than some stock options.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by abhinav22 on Thursday February 18, 2021 @10:05AM (#26180609)
Off topic, but were you involved in PowerQuery/PowerPivot as well?

I have moved away from Excel, but was one of the first users of PQ/PP, it was a great step forward and my understanding is PowerBI was an extension of that.

Congrats because everybody I know loves PowerBI! Well done, even if the rewards may not have been commiserate.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by nojvek on Thursday February 18, 2021 @07:00PM (#26187612)
Was involved in early PowerQuery while it was still part of Excel. PowerBI was fun to work on. I got to learn angular (the good and bad parts).
Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by hinkley on Thursday February 18, 2021 @07:27PM (#26187833)
I worked as a contractor for a sort of startup inside a big company, so the pay was good and immediate.

The problem is when we got successful everyone tried to pin us down with the existing bureaucracy, and everything that made us great was a reason we should be stopped. Autoimmune response.

Re:There’s no such thing as “a startup within a big company” by csours on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:15PM (#26188229)
PowerBI is pretty cool though, so thanks for that