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Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by charlesdm on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:19AM (#25035016)
This is great and all, and I'm not against vaccinations, but is this safe long term?

Am I the only one here who doesn't want to get inoculated in basically the first batch?

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by 317070 on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:40AM (#25035248)
> but is this safe long term

Is getting COVID safe long term? There are plenty of viruses that cause issues in the long term. HIV causes AIDS, HPV and Hepatitis cause cancers years later. We have no clue on the long term effects of SARS-Cov-2, other than that it causes COVID-19 in the short term.

It's a choice between the pest and the cholera at this point.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by lm28469 on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:45AM (#25035293)
> Is getting COVID safe long term?

For most people yes

edit: so the whole world is studying this virus 24/7 for almost a year and nobody detected anything, yet you think it might give us aids v2 ? Feel free to link any study that hints to anything remotely going in that direction because I couldn't find anything at all.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by ineedasername on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:33AM (#25035774)
I'm guessing you're saying that based on the number of people that remain asymptomatic &/or don't die, but you are incorrect.

We already know there is a strong possibility the virus has a negative effect on cognitive ability even in people who don't get any serious symptoms [0]

Those might go away. They might not. There could be other effects we're unware of. What we do know is that you're unlikely to find any expert on this who will unequivocally say "no longer term effects".

[0] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v...

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by lm28469 on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:38AM (#25035829)
> This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by ineedasername on Monday November 09, 2020 @11:34AM (#25036505)
Yes, which is why I said it was a possibility.

Pre-print or published or not, it presents evidence that shows it's incorrect to assert there are no longer term effects of COVID. Even if peer review shows flaws that invalidate this particular study, research into the full effects of COVID are still underway, and we simply don't have the data required to assert "no longer term effects for most people"

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by newsbinator on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:53AM (#25035360)
Citation needed
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by 317070 on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:50AM (#25035957)
> so the whole world is studying this virus 24/7 for almost a year and nobody detected anything

I think you might overestimate what we can detect, when it comes to how viruses interact with a living human body. Yes, the whole world is studying it 24/7, and we really do not have a clue on long term effects. Science is pretty good, but some problems are pretty difficult too.

30 years ago, we could not have this ubiquitous testing capability and probably could not develop these tests at all. 10 years ago, we would definitely not have this vaccine one year after patient zero. Today, we really have no clue on long term effects until they happen on a statistical scale. Science and biotech progress rapidly, but there are still a lot of things we can't do.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by blueline on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:56AM (#25035391)
you literally can't possibly know that. nobody does
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:49AM (#25035322)
We cannot be sure. Like, we have no idea.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by thu2111 on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:59AM (#25036102)
It's amazing how people have consistently acted throughout 2020 as if coronaviruses are entirely new, never seen before and everything known about the immune system or viruses has to be thrown out.

People have been getting infected with coronaviruses of various kinds for millennia. Nobody has ever linked a low severity cold-like infection with long term severe consequences, and given the sort of longitudinal study that would be required to establish such a link, any such claims would need to be treated very carefully.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Monday November 09, 2020 @11:10AM (#25036221)
It is amazing how wannabe public health experts, with zero expertise in virology, are failing to understand that difference just in handful of nucleotides may make the pathogen a completely different beast compared to its nearest relative. And we are not even talking about the nearest relatives, common cold coronaviruses diverged like many thousands years ago from the SARS1 and similar viruses.

Nonetheless, the original SARS-1 (which is way closer to SARS-2 than say OC43), is known to be causing long term, debilitating health complication among significant number of survivors.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by thu2111 on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @05:17AM (#25044356)
It's not a completely different beast, is it? It's basically like a regular flu or severe cold, and yes rhinovirus can be deadly to the elderly, it's just nobody normally notices or cares because rhinovirus isn't "new". If anything it's actually less bad than flu because flu kills children too and this one doesn't.

Nonetheless, the original SARS-1 (which is way closer to SARS-2 than say OC43), is known to be causing long term, debilitating health complication among significant number of survivors

And yet it didn't turn into a worldwide outbreak, so one must ask how much value this classification scheme actually has, given that SARS-2 is really nothing like SARS-1 in either infectiousness nor severity.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @09:07AM (#25046035)
I usually stop arguing when I know that no one reads the discussion, because it is pointless at this moment, for the reason of me having no intention to convince you in anything, if you fail to see obvious things. I think we need to stop - no one is reading our conversation anyway.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by dbancajas on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:39AM (#25035244)
Risk of COVID19 long term effects is far worse than mRNA side effects IMO.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:48AM (#25035319)
We do not know yet.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by aphextron on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:04AM (#25035475)
>We do not know yet.

Sure we do. mRNA vaccines have been under development for over a decade now. And while none have been approved for human use yet, it's not for lack of safety data. There have been zero serious adverse events reported in the Moderna or Pfizer phase 1, 2, and 3 trials. The only side effects are mild fatigue, headache, and soreness that you would associate with an immune response. Furthermore there is no possible way that the vaccine can even cause long term effects; the mRNA breaks down naturally in the body almost immediately. Any side effects will be immediately present and related to acute immune response. Worrying about some vague long term "what if" problems that have no mechanism for action is just non-scientific magical thinking.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:15AM (#25035593)
This is not how drug approval works. This will be distributed on a planetary scale. Even 0.001% of side effects can be a big issue at these scales. history actually has lots of evidence of "unquestionably safe" drugs, causing lots of pain eventually - read about Thalidomide, Aspirin and Reye syndrom etc. There is also chance of ADE, a very complex unpredictable phenomenon, which was present with the original SARS vaccines.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by hilbertseries on Monday November 09, 2020 @05:53PM (#25040952)
I think bringing up ADE is fear mongering at this point. In vaccines where we’ve seen ADE we usually see it in monkey trials and if not there, we see it in phase 3. SARS vaccines never made it to phase 3 because we kept seeing ADE early on and then it died out. To keep bringing it up at this point, when none of the hundred or so vaccines have seen it, seems a little ridiculous.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @02:28AM (#25043555)
I agree, SARS-2 does not seem to produce ADE. However, it might be rare, but if it is there it is often fatal. On global scale this might be important.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by aphextron on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:51AM (#25035971)
>There is also chance of ADE, a very complex unpredictable phenomenon, which was present with the original SARS vaccines.

Again, apples and oranges. This is a completely different class of drugs compared to SARS vaccines from a decade ago. Those were based on live viruses, which the mRNA vaccines are not.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by SomeoneFromCA on Monday November 09, 2020 @11:04AM (#25036169)
And? How can you make these kind of claims it has not been verified? Just because the mechanism is different it does not mean it is free from ADE. ADE is result of using improper antigen for creation of immune response. mRNA is not an antigen, the protein produced from it is. If you choose wrong antigen, and deliver it in any possible way, it will still create wrong immunity and will result in ADE.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by lki876 on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:12AM (#25035567)
The possible long term side effects of the vaccine are unknown.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by swalsh on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:49AM (#25035946)
Probably, but to be fair, noone has had either mRNA or COVID19 for "long term" yet.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by mancerayder on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:50AM (#25035961)
A tricky odds calculation.

It's kind of annoying to have to be fearful on public transport, having to avoid infecting older family members and therefore not seeing them, and much else. Then there's the risk to yourself with COVID, which varies based on your lifestyle, age, and good/bad genes. Clearly some percentage of the population die, and a bigger have long-term very unpleasant effects.

On the other hand, the vaccine can be discovered, 12 months from now, to cause an autoimmune reaction in some people and their immune systems attack their joints or something.

I think this pandemic teaches us all one thing - almost the entire world of understanding can be boiled down to probability.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by TulliusCicero on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:24AM (#25035072)
Have there historically been issues with vaccines causing problems for the long term that didn't show initially?

I've never heard of such a thing, but then again I have only a surface understanding of vaccines.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by bluGill on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:30AM (#25035142)
There have been a few cases. However we think we understand why they happened and so it won't. Anything is possible.

If you are a doctor/nurse working in a covid ward we know for sure that the risk whatever happens long term is a lot less than the risk of getting covid. For someone like me who has no reason to go anywhere (I'm not even allowed in the office until this pandemic passes) I can afford to wait until there is more data - and I also have to because I'm low on the list of those who will be vaccinated because I'm relatively low risk of getting it.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by howlgarnish on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:37AM (#25035223)
Pandemrix causing narcolepsy comes to mind: https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/committee/topics/influenz...
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by charlesdm on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:26AM (#25035094)
I have no idea, that's why I am asking. I'm hoping someone could clarify with decent knowledge on the matter.

I vaguely remember this story (from years ago) about a drug or vaccine during the 70s, where apparently everything was fine but then kids (or kids of kids, can't remember) ended up with birth defects.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by _Microft on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:30AM (#25035151)
You might be thinking of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide_scandal

The name of the drug was "Contergan" in german which german-speaking readers might recognize more easily.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by abainbridge on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:37AM (#25035823)
Or Primodos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primodos). Or Sodium Valproate (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39657139). These cases really undermine my confidence in the system.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by _Microft on Monday November 09, 2020 @10:52AM (#25036005)
Be aware of availability bias here. If a medication did not make it into the news because of problems, we are a lot less likely to have ever heard of it.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by abainbridge on Monday November 09, 2020 @12:00PM (#25036833)
Agreed. But in the case of Primodos, there were cover-ups with government involvement for decades. The end result was that Matt Hancock apologized. That was it. No holding to account. No fixing the system so it wouldn't happen again. That's what undermines my confidence in the system.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by thu2111 on Monday November 09, 2020 @11:21AM (#25036349)
That's Thalidomide which wasn't a vaccine.

A more relevant example is Pandemrix, a flu vaccine launched in the EU in 2009. A year later it was discovered that it seems to increase the risk of narcolepsy in teenagers sixfold. The vaccine was produced and licensed in an expedited fashion because of a "pandemic" (of swine flu), which used a then-new and slightly experimental technique (adjuvants) which interestingly, German doctors flagged up as a risk and suggested the German government use a different H1N1 vaccine that was less experimental.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by adamjb on Monday November 09, 2020 @09:32AM (#25035167)
The 1976 Swine Flu outbreak and subsequent bungled vaccination campaign comes to mind
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by aphextron on Monday November 09, 2020 @11:41AM (#25036596)
>The 1976 Swine Flu outbreak and subsequent bungled vaccination campaign comes to mind

Given that viral genome sequencing didn't even exist in 1976, I don't think it's a meaningful comparison.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by foolfoolz on Monday November 09, 2020 @12:18PM (#25037035)
the people in the trial are the first batch. these vaccines are following all the standards we have set for vaccines just at an accelerated pace and with accelerated funding. i know a lot of people who are hesitant about this shot, but it does sound antivax to say you aren’t sure it’s safe

id get this today if i could

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by FooHentai on Monday November 09, 2020 @04:28PM (#25040156)
That 'just' is where the valid concern lies. Nine women cannot make a baby in one month, and one important reason vaccine trials take the time that they do is to observe for side effects within the test population. You can't give ten people a shot, watch them for a month, and draw conclusions on the effects that will show up in an individual in ten months time.

There is no shortcut for that, and there is an obviously huge pressure to cut corners.

It's fair to be concerned, not anti-Vax.

Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote... by charlesdm on Monday November 09, 2020 @03:26PM (#25039454)
I'm definitely not antivax. I've gotten pretty much every common vaccination. In my view there is a difference between antivax and a new drug or vaccine that has not been widely tested.