Electric vehicles are also not rocket science. A company who has been making vehicles for a century will have a substantial leg up once they get some momentum. They’re far more simple as far as the driveline goes than an ICE powered vehicle would be. No transmission. No oil coolant lines. No engineering the engine and trans to work together. No fuel tank, no fuel lines, no injection system, no fuel pumps. The list goes on.
With an electrified powertrain it’s basically just a motor and juice (I’m over simplifying, electric motors and batteries require cooling as well for instance).
These companies are going to eat Tesla for breakfast as soon as they get caught up.
It’s like saying Apple is in trouble because of $40 Android phones.
The gist is that companies very rarely move downmarket when threatened with competition and instead move upmarket to protect their high margin customers. Over time, the entry level competitors gain more and more features and move up, squeezing the original players.
So you're correct that a $40 Android phone is not a worry to apple, but when those manufacturers start releasing a $300-$500 phone that has most of the features of the iPhone, that's when Apple has to be worried. But by the time they notice, it's too late. If we look at [1] we see that iPhone sales peaked in 2015, and then have been slightly down since then. But it took until 2020 to release a new lower-end phone.
0. https://www.amazon.com/Product-Strategy-High-Technology-Comp... 1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-ipho...
It’s not just the device, it’s the system and that includes software.
Their software is better because they listen to customer feedback and continually improve it. It’s not one massive thing related to autonomy that’s better, it’s the 100 small things that Tesla has been adding over the past three years that when combined make the overall package superior.
BDEW has 5500 publicly accessible stations in Germany and 10000 more planned. All petrol stations in Germany will be required to offer electric vehicle charging points. German government is throwing few billions for subsidies for pubic charging stations. At least 7,000 fast-charging points are planned.
As for the Superchargers, most people prefer an open standard over vendor lock-in.
No sir. I've had those two things you mentioned on my mazda, subaru for many years too. But thats not what tesla autopilot is.
That is not is what is interesting about Tesla. It's the developer like OTA updates with massive new features. Vs... the Forester gets an infotainment system when you buy it, and likely never gets a change for the life of the car. Compare to a 2 year old model 3 which is getting brand new features monthly.
That all said, it's a question of whether the legacy players can catch up fast enough before Tesla can work out its affordability AND quality + service issues at scale. The latter should not be slept on as even the worst of the old guard are still far more consistent and IMO a quite serious issue for Tesla.
The important parts of the software don't seem to be anything special with Tesla so far either. Many other brands have had driver assistance for years too, they just don't slap fancy titles on it and pretend the car will soon be fully autonomous.
If anything, it seems like the biggest real lead Tesla might have right now is in battery development, but again as EVs go mainstream we're going to need to solve that problem on a much larger scale so it remains to be seen whether Tesla's progress to date will provide a decisive advantage.
If you are talking about "Autopilot", I think a lot of people will have different perceptions on what it is marketed as and what it does.
You can argue that it should have been included from the get go, but at the very least it could be after the fact, so it was.
We already have traditional desktop OSs or even mobile OSs allowing OEMs to plug the hardware they bring.
It would need some willingness on part of individual auto manufacturers to let go of some amount of control, but I think they would see the advantage of it.
They will probably see the value in it, Tesla might still be at an advantage and able to nail a seamless and predictable experience as Apple was able to do on Macbooks.
2. brand name , a car is still a status symbol, owning a bmw, kia ect is not a social signal.
3. autonomous driving and software
This precisely proves the point i was trying to make, thank you :)
BMW, Mercedes ect represent old school "money is everything" mentality. Porsche is famously a "doubhebag" car
In Poland, BMW can mean "expensive luxury sports car", or "Bolid Młodzieży Wiejskiej", a pejorative name that means "Village Youth Vehicle", as a lot of used BMW from specific series were available cheap and with good performance. To the point that road police started stopping cars based on them being specific BMW models.
Both cars say something about how much money you make. It's the other stuff that's different.
BMW = money is king, capitalism, golden toilet, 1990, closed minded to new things.
Tesla = environmentally conscious, "i care" , forward looking, open to trying new things.
I still wouldn't write off other manufacturers yet, and some companies like Hyundai/Kia invest massive amounts into alternative powertrains.
This surprise is likely due to the power of hype in an echo chamber. Tesla has drastically lost both market share (relative decline) and sales volume (absolute decline) throughout Europe. Norway, which was once paraded around as the Tesla future dominance preview, is now indistinguishable from zero for Tesla sales. The only market where Tesla is still growing volume is China.
European car manufacturers joined together and and started huge battery factories in Europe in joint operations with LG Chem, CATL and others. Berkshire Hathaway provided some of the funding. Now when they have battery supply secured and skateboards are ready, they are ready to compete.
Not so many people want to spend Tesla money for mediocre build quality.
They also don't do an estate/station wagon so if I was going to spend that kind of money on a car (I'm not - I couldn't even if I wanted to) it would be something like an Audi RS6: all of the performance, and all of the practicality.
(Yes, I know the model X would nail the practicality as well, but I really hate SUVs and trucks.)
[0] Edit for clarity: this is the approximate cost of the Model S P100D, which is the model I've been most interested in. Please see my grandchild comment.
Google suggests that Tesla Model 3 starts at £42.5K and the S and X are around ~ £80K, which I guess is what you had in mind
The Model 3, which I find deeply unappealing in looks, is about the same price as a top end Volvo V60 hybrid (the fast version), which to me is a much more interesting/useful vehicle simply because it is an estate. Also much closer to the kind of money I could spend. What I'll probably end up doing is buying a 2 year old V60 hybrid in a year or two, to dodge at least some of the depreciation, to replace my aging and "characterful" Saab 93 wagon.
Plus VAT at 20% - and the non-base S models are around £88K, so you end at £105K plus any other registration fees. The X tends to be about the same for non-base.
Anything selling to consumers is listed with VAT included.
Price and look-and-feel is putting a massive dent in the side of Tesla, whose primary feature isn't the car but the charging network - which is clearly in an entirely different league than anyone else. But even that might not be worth thirty grand to most people
Then compact segment is very popular in general and Sedans are not. Teslas are also quite expensive. Even if you remove tarifs they are still on the higher side of what most people would buy.
Tesla owns the space for sexy, somewhat self-driving, longest range cars, but they are very expensive.
Alternative manufacturers make great cars many different price-points.
Based on my experience with Tesla and non-Tesla EVs, I would expect market share numbers in 5 years in the US to look more like the German market share numbers. Teslas are like BMWs or Mercedes: they are great cars, but not mass-market.
I'm from Germany (but not in the car industry in any way) and I think the main reason why they have sold so much cars is not because they are competitive, but because they have to. They have to sell the cars to fulfill whole-fleet emissions requirements, otherwise they'd be punished by fines.
So they push the cars into the market at losses, but it's still cheaper for them than paying the fines.
> According to Auto Motor and Sport, at least in the first phase, Volkswagen does not plan to make money on EVs and expects to lose around €3,000 per each I.D. sold
https://insideevs.com/news/346510/volkswagen-id-sold-loss-30...
"Chairman of the Daimler Supervisory Board: No company earns money with electric cars yet" (German)
https://ecomento.de/2020/01/16/daimler-aufsichtsratschef-kei...
> In view of the threat of fines being imposed on the EU for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, it is worthwhile for car manufacturers to sell electric cars at a loss (without covering all costs). Because electric cars reduce the average CO2 emissions of a vehicle fleet, manufacturers can sell many profitable cars with combustion engines with an optimized amount of electricity and still remain below the generally prescribed average of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer, calculated Prof. Dr. Peter Hoberg from the University of Applied Sciences in Worms. (German)
https://www.elektroauto-news.net/2020/co2-grenzwerte-verlust...
Normally you can fairly compare quarterly numbers, but COVID-19 prevented Tesla from shipping to Europe for Q2. I expect a big spike in September as Tesla's Q3 boats arrive. I doubt it'll be enough to catch up, but the comparison will be much more fair then.
Their take was that Tesla is overpriced for erratic quality and generally too flashy. "Toys for attention seekers" was one phrase I recall.
Drives are shorter in distance, and charging opportunities are much more readily available given the density of much of Europe. I would hazard a guess that trains are much more popular for longer-distance trips where flying isn't an option, a big contrast to the USA.
This is why vehicles like the Honda e exist as an "urban car" at a lower price point than Tesla cares to hit. With a max range is only 137 miles, it's not "competitive", but it's priced ~14k GBP less than a Model 3 from what I can tell.
And some people actually value a dealer network.
One big factor probably is you just don't need as much range in Europe. Cities are more densely packed so travel distances are shorter and if you really want to go really far there are better options than driving like trains.
Also I think the cars Tesla has put out are probably larger than people want over there. They're putting out large SUVs and regular sized American cars where Europe has traditionally favored more compact cars.
It seems in the end price and size are the most important factors in a lot of European countries.
I have a personal anecdote from my dad who bought a Smart EQ. He just wanted a good car for commuting and the Model 3 is too expensive for it.
Source: my wife is German
My perception of Tesla is that it is a dishonest company and has mediocre quality.
I wouldn’t buy a Tesla either if I were in the market and would probably look at a German brand or one of the Volkswagen group or Volvo or something, maybe Toyota.
So you have loyal high quality wife that is usually right. Good for you.
Tesla is expensive, and the Model 3 screen in the middle is something that puts some people off. I want physical buttons and no distraction, and so does the people around me for what I can gather.
For what I see in Youtube about people who buys Tesla, they seem to complain a lot. One of those I follow settled with a SEAT Mii [https://ev-database.org/car/1191/SEAT-Mii-Electric], which another segment (and way cheaper) and it's not even designed as an EV from the ground up.
For the same, or different reasons, people is pushing traditional brands to sell reasonably priced EVs. I'm particularly waiting for an A segment car, with range extender.
I doubt I will buy a Tesla unless they come up with a car about ~15k that ticks some of the above boxes. I know, I know, I'm way off prices.
Comfort is in the eye of the beholder, as a lot of people claim that Model S comfort "is nothing to talk about"
- Teslas are expensive
A Tesla is going to be in the upper-end of the price range for most people, and in fact a lot of the time they were status symbols in the sense of how rare they are.
In fact, I have just checked used cars, got surprised to see 86 Teslas on sale of all kinds in Poland, lots of kilometers driven... and prices that I can buy a plane or helicopter for.
- Tesla has ridiculously low build quality
This goes hand in hand with the price, except the build quality is worse than low-end of the price range. Things that I've seen people in the USA somehow accept (parking cameras failing on newly bought car, involving voodoo rituals for resets) would lead to the car getting returned and with request for full refund. Better not to mention the tone of any "user's review" that would follow.
- There's no bonus in the form of build-out supercharger network
While there are superchargers in Europe, as far as I know the network is quite sparse in comparison with USA, electricity is not necessarily cheap, and many (something that all BEVs deal with) there are issues with charging your car if you live in a city.
- shorter-distance BEV are more acceptable, especially as "city car"
This is big, because it means that smaller cars with smaller batteries (and let's be honest, the "secret sauce" of Tesla is their battery supply chain) are not as much of a problem as in USA. Combined with with (lack of) availability of charging stations, this meant that a lot of earlier BEV purchases went towards "fleet buy", at least locally in Poland. As an organization, it was much easier to arrange charging in parking space etc.
Such fleet buys, some with "rent-a-car" setup where you can pickup a car a bit like you'd pickup an electric scooter, helped "prepare the land".
- Tesla cars were made for USA roads
A bit of beaten horse, but there's noticeable difference in how wide the roads are, parking space availability, etc.
While modern USA sedans and so on aren't gigantic like old full frame cars, American cars are still noticeably bigger. US brands selling in Europe tend to sell models adapted for Europe.
- Servicing.
Even in USA servicing Tesla cars is full of horror stories. While in the western Europe there's less focus on smaller car service companies, the availability and cost of parts are probably just as noticeable.
- The big Tesla sales were subsidized
I remember how last year everyone on HN was crowing about Tesla being most popular new car brand in, if I recall correctly, Netherlands.
Barely anyone noticed the part where the BEV purchases were driven by ending of package of tax rebates and subsidies for buying a new BEV car, which ended because the BEV market was "coming together". And Tesla simply had brand recognition for electric car and availability.
(and last, but definitely not least) - Volkswagen et al had been making slow and steady progress towards BEV offensive
Meanwhile, European (and not only) car manufacturers were slowly ramping up capability on BEV front, with 2019 marking huge marketing campaign from Volkswagen bringing, excuse me, "BEV to the masses". We're talking huge manufacturing capacity that turns like a supertanker, but it can probably outproduce Tesla ten times over, switching tracks to BEV as a whole.
And that shift in manufacturing is slowly starting to hit general population. Electric cars are moving away from curios, slowly shifting to mainstream.
My perception until now was that EVs from "traditional" car manufacturers like VW, Renault, and Hyundai are not really competitive with Tesla's offerings on range, efficiency, advanced features, and value/price. I would not have expected Tesla's share of EV sales to drop so precipitously in any market. From the OP:
In particular, I would not have expected Mercedes/Daimler's and BMW's respective shares of the EV market to be so close to Tesla's this year in Germany or any other market. Remarkably, it seems that Mercedes and BMW EVs combined outsold Tesla by 18x in July (2,105 + 1,499 vs 203). Those two brands compete in the same segments and for the same affluent customers as Tesla's existing models (S, 3, X, and Y).Perhaps there's something unique about the German market? Or perhaps there's something unusual about the July figures, e.g., Tesla supply issues? Is there anyone from Germany here who can shed light on this?
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EDIT: It appears that supply issues were a key driver of the loss of market share. See https://electrek.co/2020/08/13/tesla-sales-sliding-europe-co... (copied from gardaani's comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24144057).