Revenue per user is a very misleading way to evaluate the value when talking about a hyper-global operation. It is as useful as averaging the global price of a loaf of bread, which would be priced as $2-3 in the US but a few cents in a third world country. This is very applicable to ad revenue because ultimately ads are capturing the pricing levels of real economy, and bulk of the facebook users are not from high GDP nations.
> Your entire data load might be worth $100 a year
This is a very simplistic way to think about data. In fact, calling it data itself is misleading. Because it all boils down to how the data is operationalized and made into information and knowledge about you when the business is interacting with you. Same demographic data is worth separately for selling you ads, driving product development to increase usage, price discriminating against you while buying airplane tickets, selling you insurance, influencing your vote etc.
Another way data is not a static, lifeless entity is something people often forget, it is the power of an SQL join. Joining table-a and table-b yields information neither of the tables had alone. So there will always be more a potential of rendering the existing data more valuable (more information yielding) by joining it with a marginal amount of new data.
In sum, data doesn't have a static value, and I don't think we have seen the end of ways it could be utilized against users yet.
> It doesn't work.
To my knowledge, we don't have empirical data that shows it doesn't yet.
It doesn't matter, because there's no way to torture the data until "the amount of money that Facebook can afford to remit to its users for giving them their data" is going to be anything significant. They can't afford anything "per user" or any significant number of users.
If it were, say, $500 dollars a year, and we were arguing about whether we were an order of magnitude low or high, it might matter, because the difference between $50/yr and $5000/year is pretty significant. But you're never going to get so much as "Facebook can pay most users $15/month for their data" let alone anything worth it to anybody.
Also, I've seen people hypothesize about these other values that this data might bring before, but bear in mind I'm operating my analysis based on Facebook overall revenue. There is no hypothetical 10x or 100x amount of value sitting around in the data, which we know, because otherwise Facebook would be collecting some significant amount of the value and it would be showing up in their revenue. The fact I'm basing this sort of analysis on revenue rather than profit is already an ENORMOUS concession to the idea, just staggeringly huge, and even with that concession it's a couple of orders of magnitude away from making sense.
If you think there's some huge untapped source of revenue here that might make the idea work, show it to me. Show me the company and their revenue. There's Google, and then it falls off a cliff.
Deciding how much a user's data is worth is an exercise for the reader, but I would certainly pay much more to avoid Facebook, than Facebook would pay to have me[0]. That's a red flag.
[0] - as would anyone who has ever added a Facebook domain to a Pi-Hole, the total cost of which likely exceeds Facebook's per-user revenue by your numbers.
If you want to internal externalities, go for the tax. Probably an easier sell to the politicians.
How are you going to value what has been extracted from them, though? Facebook is in a better position to value it than anyone: they're selling it. What people are willing to pay them for it is literally its value. I don't really see how you can decide that the value of the data is greater than what Facebook is extracting from it. If it were, they'd be charging that much.
If we have the option to pay up front, or sell off my data and maybe end up in the red or black. It will all be very complex in the end, but that's just exposing the inherent complexity that already exists and is just papered over.
That was my point. In this thought exercise, we ought to separate the amount paid to users by country, because it will differ as much as a few orders of magnitude per country, just as the per user revenue most probably does. That is roughly the scale of GDP per capita per country between 1st world and 3rd world countries, which would be a good proxy for ad markets. I agree with rest of your argument, if per person revenue in the US was $150, would that be enough to make users care? It is unknown.
> If you think there's some huge untapped source of revenue here that might make the idea work, show it to me
I will concede that I am leveling an argument that entirely hinges on a hypothetical. But I don't think it is fantastical. The core of the problem is information asymmetry. These companies have huge amounts of high resolution data on us, but we don't have anything about the breakdown and how they operationalize that data. The argument that "if there was more ways to milk money out of it, we would have seen that in revenue" has several drawbacks in my opinion for several reasons.
a) The data doesn't have to be used in ways that translate to quarterly revenue but still great value to the company; this includes back channel uses (elections, famously brexit, that was won by data, and it is hard to put a revenue tag to its effects), it also includes expenditures such as acquisitions of competitors (famously instagram and whatsapp, I don't doubt for a second facebook made use of their data to assess the viability of these acquisitions), or temporarily unused data for game theoretic reasons ("I don't want to expose the fact that I can utilize racial data, health data, covert speech recognition data on my users as long as I can, but if market conditions/lobbying efforts are fruitful, I will translate that to revenue").
b) Even directly revenue increasing uses of data is subject to R&D and mining day in day out. So new combinations of existing data can be figured out, or new products might potentiate existing data to be more valuable without preceding revenue footprints. Think about self driving cars; how traffic operated has been public data, individual sensor technologies aren't that novel, but self-driving car is joining all this together in the hope of converting that data into revenue. When it does, it will be a phase shift that tremendously increases the value of that data, and we will have not been wiser to it if we only watched the revenue. I'm not suggesting FB is necessarily after such an exponential tech, but it is to keep in mind the potentiality stored with data is not readily observable, so “show me it can translate into revenue” criteria can be failed for a long while despite the fact that it eventually can.
No
In all respect, this is a really naive view of the ad tech marketplace.
The only thing that would do what you're saying is legislation. Making it more expensive just pushes out smaller players in the marketplace, leading to consolidation towards the Google's / Facebooks of the world.
[1]: https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/sell-your-own-data-bad-...
Money doesn't solve every issue, especially when your adversaries have so much more money (and power) than you.
The only way to stop others from collecting data on you is to not give it out in the first place. We need our computers, particularly browsers, to stop leaking so much information.
Edit: this is also the downfall of GDPR. An enterprising Chinese company could collect whatever data they want and then simply sell it to someone else who can use it to sell something to Europeans.
So what would that something be? Is there any obvious way to spend the revenues to further discourage tracking users and storing user data? Or would it be best to just plow it into the education budget or general fund?
I think the correct use did eventually occur to me: turn it into funding for open source software, that is both free as in freedom and free as in beer.
Why not ban tracking and ad targeting and selling personal data, and force that business model to go extinct, and now they have to start charging for service and their users become actual customers.
Since me and the other 99% of people contribute most of the value to Facebook for you, would you be willing to subsidize the other 99% of people and pay $1700/year?
That sort of statement requires data to back it up.
> would you be willing to subsidize the other 99%
That would just mean that facebook is an unwanted and unprofitable service which then wouldn't exist.
Which is not a problem at all.
On other social media websites that offer "pay to remove ads" versus "get personalized ads", like Reddit or Twitch, about 1% of users pay. Wikipedia asks for donations and very few people donate, percentage-wise. So I think if you want to show a substantially higher number, say even 10%, you'll need to provided evidence. Even if 10% of users paid, would they be willing to be $170/year?
> That would just mean that facebook is an unwanted and unprofitable service which then wouldn't exist. Which is not a problem at all.
I don't see how you jumped to that conclusion, that it's unwanted. I want Facebook, and I want it for free with personalized ads. Same with Gmail, Yelp, Reddit, Google Maps, Instagram, Youtube, and a bunch of other web services. Not sure how that's so hard to understand, that this is the business model I prefer.
Same with newspapers. I don't want to pay the full cost of making a newspaper (probably $10 or so), but rather I'd purchase a very cheap subsidized newspaper with ads for $1. Or free apps with in-app purchases. Doesn't mean it's unwanted if people aren't willing to pay the cost price for it.
Exactly! I don't know why it's so hard for people to realize that there are people that 100% ok with the offerings from these companies and would rather not have legislation interfere with such transactions
That sort of statement requires data to back it up.
> I don't see how you jumped to that conclusion, that it's unwanted. I want Facebook, and I want it for free
If no one wants to pay for it, it's unwanted. I'm sure you'd also want a mansion, butlers, a private jet, etc. for free. That you want something for free means nothing, and is entirely irrelevant.
Facebook in its current form also doesn't care about what you want. They care about how they can please their paying customers, with you being one of their many products they can sell.
The person you're replying to spoke directly to this by saying they want those services not merely for free, but for free with personalized ads. That is, by just saying "for free", you are removing an important part of the context. I suspect they would also sign up for a service that offered a mansion, butlers, a private jet, etc. for free with personalized ads, if anybody were offering such a thing.
I'm personally in the boat of preferring to pay for things that are important to me and hope to see more movement over time to subscription business models that work, but it does not make sense to write off people who want the opposite, who prefer to get things for free with personalized ads. The revealed preference in society seems to be that there are a lot more people who feel that way than people who prefer to pay for subscriptions. These people aren't just being duped, everybody knows how free services work because it is a very frequent and well publicized topic of conversation, it's just that they are ok or even happy with it.
I think what happens a lot, because I think it's what I experience personally very often, is that when we find ourselves with a minority opinion that we really think is right, that we conclude the majority with a different opinion from ours is just ignorant or being manipulated. But in reality, they are often just as knowledgeable as we are, but have simply drawn different conclusions. Speaking personally, this is always a bitter pill to swallow.
But if Facebook threw up two buttons, one saying I agree to allow targeted ads, and one saying "$17/year" and requires you to give your credit card information, it's naive to think a substantial percentage will hit the $17/year button for a product they've already been using for free.
This is, after all, how the internet got to be where it is. Not through the use of 'walled gardens' and paywalls. But by providing ad supported content.
> I would not, I'd rather they target me with personalized ads like they are doing now. I hate paying for things, and I imagine neither would 99% of users.
I will never understand the mind of a typical social media user(s), as I'd rather not use it and save myself the damage on my psyche and mental health as well as leaking personal information I'd rather not be in the hands of the very companies building the Panopticon.
Other than the supposed potential dating benefits, having an actual active social life I don't get the appeal as I probably say I meet too many people for my own good, what can you say really is worth it that you can't do with text/email? The digital life that was sold to us as an amazing replacement is actually proving to be really sad as COVID has shown and is perhaps one of the reasons I can comprehend why people are out there violating it as its proven to be an incredibly undesirable and lonely experience.
Scientific evidence on that is inconclusive and mixed. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11126-017-953...
> Other than the supposed potential dating benefits, having an actual active social life I don't get the appeal as I probably say I meet too many people for my own good
Then maybe it's not for you? I like to share things with my friends, see things they share, it's mildly entertaining and somewhat informative. If you don't enjoy those things, then you don't have to participate.
> leaking personal information I'd rather not be in the hands of the very companies building the Panopticon
In a practical sense, I have never encountered any downsides with supposed data leaking / personalized ads / strangers selling information about me. I have not lost money because of it, or lost friendships, or manipulated to do something I later regret.
But I have lost time and money because of wrong information shared by the credit bureaus, lost friends and messages because of a broken phone, misleading salesmen who convinced me to buy bad products at bad prices, insurance companies that didn't pay up, and landlords who scammed me. So after I finish dealing with and worrying about actual bad actors that harm me in direct ways, maybe I'll start worrying about the ghosts.
Anyway, personalized ads is just the tip of the iceberg, the real problem with that data doesn't exist on a small scale. The problem is that mountain of data could be abused, for example to manipulate public opinion, elections, the stock market, etc, and blackmail.
Even if you aren't vulnerable to these things directly, the abuse potential of such data is so high that IMO it's only a matter of time before you're indirectly negatively affected by it.
Of course all this would be predicated on trust and a government that would actually use teeth if fraud was committed.
Hah.
I already don't, but they still build a shadow profile of me with the data my friends and friends of friends leak.
So they need to understand your interests anyway to provide the services that people find useful. So they still need forms of tracking to do the things that people find useful on the sites.
So what do we do?
For a free service like Facebook you the user have no expectation of quality because you're paying nothing. So Facebook's motivation is not to provide quality but to keep you engaged and clicking. They've discovered that best way to do that is to infuriate you and to radicalize you. This keeps you the user engaged which is what advertisers require, so that's what Facebook delivers.
This is great except that this is not a healthy arrangement for a democracy. To constantly have users given whatever amount of negativity and disinformation is necessary to keep them enraged and glued to their phones. That's what Yang is all about trying to fix.
So paying for Facebook changes the dynamic. Users will now demand quality. Facebook will have to change. If users discover that Facebook only delivers them misery, then they'll stop paying and Facebook loses revenue on both ends. The users collectively will have power to demand improvements. Facebook's algorithm will have to change in response to that new dynamic. Problem solved. (That's the hope.)
Nope. Few people I know have a Netflix subscription. The subscription model doesn't work for news media for example.
I've never used Facebook, but there have been times where I've thought of signing up. If Facebook had cost money then that would've been a non-starter from the get go. The same goes for most other services.
I don't know why, but the value proposition of something that costs money online has to be very large for me to consider it.
I think the general problem is that those who can afford to pay for Facebook are those who are the most valuable to advertisers. So if you gave users the choice to pay or not, the users who draw the advertising revenue would pay, leaving the users who the advertisers don't really want to advertise to.
~220-230 million monthly active US users, $31.4 billion in sales (projected 2020 figure) for that market.
That's of course not adjusting for hours of use for a given user, data contribution, and so on.
And do those numbers include messenger?
It would be fascinating to see some histograms of users and usage. Especially one that compares ad buyers, page managers, and personal only users.
The feed is such an integral part of FB.
The point of making the companies change is that most users aren’t computer literate enough to understand the problem, it’s consequences, or the mitigations. The knowledge asymmetry between the average user and the companies collecting and using this data could hardly be more vast, and that creates a situation where companies can effectively prey on less knowledgable users. If the wide majority of users aren’t capable of finding/using the available user-level solutions, the problems will remain rampant.
You're saying the low levels of adoption of such technologies are indicative of users' subpar technical skills, but maybe it's just general apathy and disinterest? E.g., how many public protests and calls to action have we seen after Snowden revelations?
FWIW, the former is already prevalent among younger generations, with Instagram for their "public" life and f-Insta for everything private.
But if the "you" you're referring to here is actually just you, of course you can.
Currently data is held by a small number of companies who invest a lot of money protecting it as a business secret.
The goal of the pay-for-data movement is to make it easy for any fly by night operation to have access to the same data without earning your trust.
It makes the data use much less profitable for the companies involved, and therefore far less attractive, discouraging business models that rely on it from the start.
If people were to negotiate the value of their data collectivelly you can have a 100k or a million people in some organisation that has stewardship over their data and negotiates say, a price with facebook, and that institution either manages the money and invests it or pays it back out.
The reason people are so disempowered today in the face of these huge companies is because everyone is operating under this atomistic, individualist, consumer mindset. People can effectively negotiate when they team up.
If this were the limit of the value per user, they would have offered a subscription service long ago. Something is missing from your model.
There should be roughly as much variation in FB users’ value to FB as there is variation in disposable income across their whole userbase.
Then give it to me if no one cares. I don't want my personal information bought and sold.
It would also disincentive them collecting info on me.
This whole thing is essentially credit card points. These credit card companies pay you for the purchase data in the form on points. And the detail from those purchases is nothing compared to what FB and others would have.
On Google that's maybe one click, probably half a click.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...
They might diversify a bit (which they already have, with their hardware plays and all that jazz,) but let's not pretend this is going to be the game changing investment mover we hope it would be.
That is a considerable amount for many.
Everyone who logs on gets a ticket. It follows some type of grading scale. Bigger revenue generators earns more tickets. Only individuals are allowed to win, no businesses.
Maybe Facebook’s goal can be to give away $1 Billion dollars a year, divided into $1 Million jackpots. Thus, 1,000 people a year can win it. Over 10 years, and you possibly have 10,000 winners.
And maybe you have to meet a certain income or wealth criteria to win the jackpot? Otherwise, you only win a smaller jackpot. You don’t really want all the big influencers and wealthy to take all the money.
$5/year is irrelevant. But $1 Million, this might be more interesting. And force the IRS to tax-exempt the winnings. The goal is to transfer wealth to the less-privileged, to help rectify the inequality of the capitalistic system.
I mean, if people found out there was a $1000 or $10,000 vein of value to mine, yeah, people might get upset and demand a more "fair portion", but they're not going to get upset over $10/year.
The problem isn't the amount of money the companies are making on your privacy, the problem is what they are doing to make that money. I'm appalled at the damage to society they're willing to do to make that little money, but you're not going to convince anyone of any problems by focusing on the "little money" part.
I like to think they don't know. I fear they don't care.
... and honestly, that might be the correct risk assessment for the average person. The worst-case scenario only happens to a few people.
All the problems of big tech disappear when they're held accountable for their actions. The easiest way to hold them accountable is to reduce their clout.
Not to mention the logic doesn't follow. Today nearly everyonr would agree that it would be a terrible idea to openly sell representation in congress or the ability levy and collect arbitrary taxes to the highest bidder because the incentived essentially only make sense for those who can make a large enough profit in short term to justify the expense. The best thing you could say about the policy is that if it is cheaper than an invasion adversaries might decide to buy you out instead of declaring war.
It’s hard to remember, the average person makes $X,000 globally and Facebook has a huge % of the planet on their platform.
HN users make in the upper echelon of wages, and are comfortable with their computers and online shopping.
It's completely impossible that it wouldn't be revealed to the public, and every possible take on it will be published. All it would take is a few people posting the amounts they received, which is definitely going to happen.
I ran the numbers on Facebook a while back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19462402 It comes out that they're making roughly $17/yr in annual revenue per user. Revenue, not profit. Cross checking my numbers against some other sources, it may be now more like $40 or $50/yr. Profits, the thing they could actually afford to share with you, look like maybe $10/year. So, what, Facebook is going to cut me a check for $5 every year? Google sends me another 5-spot, and a few other companies send me a dollar or less? What problem does that solve?