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Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by rwmj on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:28PM (#23421366)
Purely as a thought experiment, if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months, what bad (or good) effects might we see?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jdm2212 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:44PM (#23421522)
The whole banking system would collapse like in 2007-2008 because "everyone stops paying mortgages all at once" is basically what happened then.

Renters stop paying their rent so landlords go broke. Landlords stop paying their mortgages. Mortgage-backed securities go into default. Anyone with lots of exposure to mortgage-backed securities folds. Their counterparties in all sorts of financial arrangements can't collect (insurance, bonds, you name it). Credit markets dry up, and all the Main Street businesses that are rolling over some of their debt find they can't borrow, so they file for bankruptcy. Normally, they'd take out loans to make it through bankruptcy and restructure... but no loans are available, so they liquidate.

EDIT: worth noting that this is less likely now than in '07-'08 because the Federal Reserve has been buying up bonds like crazy (that basically means financial institutions, governments and businesses are often able to get unlimited cheap credit) but if they scaled that back or stopped doing it, things are already so bad there would've been a credit crisis in March or April without a national rent/mortgage freeze. So imagine how much worse it would be with one.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by squarerootof-1 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:57PM (#23421681)
I would like to add to your comment and highlight that this isn't similar to 2007-2008 as those loans were made to people who should never have gotten them in the first place and had no hope to pay it off. Those loans were straight up losses, whereas here, the loans are still good and some companies are even earning interest by delaying mortgage payments. But if too many people stop paying at the same time, the system will collapse and we'll have a repeat of GFC.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ubercow13 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:50PM (#23421588)
Doesn't seem to be happening in the UK yet, where many mortgages are suspended.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ars on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:02PM (#23421745)
Suspended, but interest keeps accumulating, and will eventually have to be paid? Because banks can handle a bit of that, if the bank is able to borrow from a central bank.

Or suspended and never paid?

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by chrisseaton on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:53PM (#23421619)
Not many people ended up taking up these offers. Less than 10% I think.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by popotamonga on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:48PM (#23421569)
In my country they just declared 1 year no mortgage payments for everyone who needs.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ars on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:00PM (#23421719)
What country is that? Is everything government owned? Because how can a landlord possibly manage that? And why is the landlord the one asked to help the tenant, isn't that the job of government?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by throwaway_jobs on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:07PM (#23421805)
Suspension of mortgage would help the landlord not the renter. The owner/landlord pays the mortgage not the tenant, the tenant pays rent to the landlord.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by rwmj on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:05PM (#23421782)
> Renters stop paying their rent so landlords go broke. Landlords stop paying their mortgages

But I said in my question: "if we suspended mortgage repayments for N months and rental payments for N months"

Landlords are not paying their main cost (the mortgage) so why do landlords go broke? They have some fixed overheads but those are usually a few % of the mortgage.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:11PM (#23421860)
That doesn't help the mortgage holders, though...
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by rwmj on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:21PM (#23421978)
The normal way payment holidays work is the missing months are added at the end, and the interest (historically incredibly low at the moment) accrues as normal. So the mortgage holders are not really out of pocket here. Nor are the landlords since they can charge another tenant at the extended end of their mortgage term.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by refurb on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:02PM (#23422482)
Your ignoring the flow of cash.

The mortgage lender was counting on receiving the mortgage payment in May 2020, not in May 2045.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ljf on Friday June 05, 2020 @02:41AM (#23425717)
I would disagree - everyone didn't just stopping paying their mortgages. The issue was that it was uncovered how inappropriate a portion of mortgages had been and how toxic the investment mixes were. This realisation led to banks valuations changing and led to a run on banks. The property behind these mortgages was worth less than the mortgages supplied on them.

While the default rate increased in some areas, it was in no way universal, or as high as we see today in the retail property market. Also (currently) the property backing the mortgage has retained its mortgaged value. So these are not that similar scenarios

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jotm on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:00PM (#23422461)
What if everybody gets a loan, minimal/no interest with delayed repayment? Just pretend it's not a handout, but actual debt that will be repaid... someday? Just a thought
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jdm2212 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:12PM (#23423083)
That's what the Federal Reserve is doing, in effect, by offering zero interest loans to every city, business, and bank.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jeromegv on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:58PM (#23421689)
What's the proportion of commercial landlords that have a mortgage to pay? Because when their building is already paid, interruption of rent isn't really impacting them.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by wmf on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:14PM (#23421892)
All of them? The economy has been pushing everyone, including landlords, to lever up for decades.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by bananabreakfast on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:05PM (#23422514)
Property tax on commercial property is huge and lasts forever. Interruption of rent may force them to sell their property or be unable to afford their taxes.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by devalgo on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:23PM (#23423194)
>The whole banking system would collapse like in 2007-2008 because "everyone stops paying mortgages all at once" is basically what happened then.

This obviously ignores the issue with massively leveraged firms making poor bets on housing bonds. But lets be real, they'll get bailed out if there's any problem.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by 5ociety on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:48PM (#23421568)
It kind of sounds like we need a different money system?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jchrisa on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:08PM (#23422560)
I like Holochain as they don't maintain a global ledger. Here is some reasoning why: https://www.wired.com/2014/07/document-coin/
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by 5ociety on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:48PM (#23421573)
and whose better at designing systems than you and me?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:55PM (#23421644)
We may do better than the bankers who like to design fragile systems as long as they can make boatloads of money :)
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:16PM (#23421921)
Unless you're an expert at designing systems as complicated as the entire economy, maybe a lot of people.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by 5ociety on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:28PM (#23422050)
because they're doing such a good job?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:32PM (#23422092)
They don't have to be doing a perfect job for you to be able to do a worse one...
[dead]
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:03PM (#23422493)
The more I listen to you, the more grateful I am that you will never be given the chance. Someone who's so cocksure that he's sure he's smart enough to organize the entire economy is the last person I want to see given the chance.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by DanBC on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:50PM (#23422917)
People cannot downvote comments that are replies to their own comments, so any downvotes are not coming from AnimalMuppet.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:02PM (#23423001)
To be fair, I did downvote his initial comments...
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:34PM (#23421427)
This would make sense to me. Why are some businesses being shut down and have to deal with income losses and others like landlords can keep going and demand their income? This seems fundamentally unfair to me.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by freeone3000 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:38PM (#23421471)
Ah, but comrade, paying rent itself is inherently unfair. It allows for profit off merely having bought something sooner than another had a chance to. If the rent stops now, why should the rent start back up?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by airza on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:48PM (#23421571)
I guess you're being sarcastic, but what value is being provided to society by having landlords rent houses out to people who would rather buy them?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by tathougies on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:08PM (#23421816)
My goodness, people here must really not have any experience either renting or owning. As a new homeowner, it is obvious what I used to be paying for -- someone to fix my living space any time something broke without charge and someone to maintain my building and my outdoor areas. It turns out that these things are actual work...
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Enginerrrd on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:06PM (#23422535)
Not to mention the financial risks, liability, having to handle problatic tenants, etc. Ironically, a lot of landlords are those trying to live the American dream. They're people that are working their ass off trying to be upwardly mobile. And while I understand that even they often have privlages not afforded to the lowest income brackets, they also aren't the 1% or aristocrats of the French revolution. The virtiole against billionaires has filtered down to them pretty unfairly. ...and tte real issues we have over what parameters of the power law distribution of wealth should be tolerated have a much lower impact on the income bracket of lanlords than they do on the top 0.01%
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by munificent on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:40PM (#23422209)
One to look at rent is that it's like the old joke about prostitution: you don't pay for the sex, you pay for them to leave afterwards.

Rent gives you greater location flexibility and less commitment to a specific place and building. You don't have to maintain it yourself, and you are freed from the mental load of having to do long-term planning around it at all. Not that it's necessarily good for the surrounding community, but to some degree, renting gives you the luxury of "driving it like you stole it" and that's a real value for some people.

I own my house. When plumbers dumped water in the basement and destroyed a floor, that was my problem. Renters pay for that kind of stuff to be someone else's problem.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by airza on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:52PM (#23422346)
I can see the argument about flexibility, but it doesn't really seem to mesh up with the skyrocketing demand for rental properties in urban areas.

On the other hand, I'm not sure why the service of removing risk from home ownership is good (or why it couldn't be separated into ownership and property management.) In the paradigm you're proposing, the renter wants to be insulated from the risk of property damage or adverse effects on the home they purchased. And the price they're willing to pay for this is... 100% of the equity of the place they live in?

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ecnahc515 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:08PM (#23422565)
This isn't all that different then how a person chooses to work for a company rather than run a company themselves.

People often dread working for others, but still do it because the risk and difficulties of running a business themselves aren't worth the ability to easily change jobs/roles/location that working for someone else allows.

If you own a house or business, if something goes wrong, you have to fix it, or sell the asset so it's not your problem anymore. If you rent/work for someone else you simply move/work somewhere else.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by nradov on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:58PM (#23421691)
Anyone who wants to buy a rental house is free to do so. Just make an unsolicited purchase offer to the landlord for more than the net present value of all expected future rental income. Most landlords are willing to sell their properties, even when they're not currently listed on the market.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by airza on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:38PM (#23422187)
I'm sure the landlord is getting a lot of value from their rental property, but why is this configuration of property ownership better for society?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by em500 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:14PM (#23422611)
Better for society than what other configuration of property ownership? What other allocation mechanism for shelter are you suggesting?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by sokoloff on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:34PM (#23422125)
People who would rather buy houses than rent should feel free to do so. No landlord is forcing someone to rent their property.

It is often the case that renting is quite a bit cheaper and always the case that it's more flexible to do so, which is why a lot of people choose to rent instead of buying. Society benefits when people who wish to rent housing have housing available for lease.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by airza on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:41PM (#23422222)
It's certainly more feasible to rent if you don't have the money to buy a house, which is why every single renter i know is doing do. I'm just not sure why this is necessary or a valuable economic innovation that justifies the rent paid.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by toast0 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:41PM (#23422840)
Rentals are a useful innovation because the transaction is beneficial for both parties.

The leasor turns their large investment into a stream of payments, and the leasee turns their stream of payments into use of a large investment without having to make such an investment and without needing to have the capability to make that investment.

Avoiding making a large investment in property makes it easier for the leasee to move if needed, since there aren't significant costs to unwind a lease like there are to unwinding property ownership.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by em500 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:10PM (#23422582)
You're not sure why it's a valuable economic innovation that people who don't have the money to buy a house can rent one? What alternative are you suggesting, that they should get a house for free?
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jtolmar on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:11PM (#23423082)
But the price of buying a home would be a lot lower if there was no rent (or other ways to own a home you don't live in). There are more homes than there are people.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by sokoloff on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:55PM (#23423461)
Just about every 4-plex and apartment building in the world wouldn't exist if there was no rent to pay for their construction.

(On a much more minor note, there are not more housing units (about 140M) than people (about 335M) in the US and probably not in the world; though that's literally what you claimed, it's probably not what you really meant to claim. Taking the most charitable re-interpretation of your claim: there are slightly more housing units than households (about 140M vs about 130M) in the US. See above about the prediction that many of these housing units likely not existing [or continuing to be offered/maintained] if rent were outlawed.)

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Nasrudith on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:03PM (#23422495)
The fact that the people who would rather buy them lack the available resources to do so on their own, putting aside any economies of scale benefits from either developers or their demand.

Preferring a better option doesn't mean much unfortunately. To go with a variant on a crass old joke "I would rather be paid billions to sleep with an endless line of beautiful women than work retail but they aren't hiring for that position unfortunately."

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by viscanti on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:57PM (#23421674)
The opportunity cost of the downpayment (and also the fact that lots of people wouldn't have the money for a down payment anyway). Generally the returns from property investing are relatively low compared to other investments.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by joycian on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:09PM (#23421837)
Not much. Society is paying to improve the value of the land.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:43PM (#23421514)
It should start up when the renter is not forbidden by government to make money to pay rent.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by viscanti on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:59PM (#23421708)
Things like property taxes and maintenance are fixed costs for property owners. Those can eat up 50% or more of the rental income. So if renters aren't paying, even property owners who don't have a mortgage have high fixed costs that they have to pay.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:12PM (#23421872)
The companies that are renting their space also have fixed costs.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by viscanti on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:20PM (#23422672)
Generally their biggest fixed cost is rent, which most didn't pay.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:19PM (#23423150)
That’s very doubtable. I would guess biggest cost is salaries.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by masnaox on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:37PM (#23422171)
maintenance and tax would NEVER get close to 50pct of the rent, let alone more.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by viscanti on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:22PM (#23422684)
You're entitled to your opinions. But the 50 percent rule is pretty established by real estate investors as a way to estimate those fixed costs.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/member-blogs/7172/46252-what-i...

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Nasrudith on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:54PM (#23422368)
Because virii and reality don't give a damn about human sense or fairness fairness compared to what can and does work. "Making things fair" and forcing non-hazardous businesses to close as well even if they can teleoperate would be counterproductive.

The rents are given locked in periods which change vs the potential real swing in value. It is a "futures contract" sort of situation. If sales at a location increase tenfold over others of comparable nichw and expenses rent raising relative value compared to comparably priced competitors then the landlord cannot instantly raise rent for the contract period. They effectively got stuck renting "undervalued". This situation is a reverse of sorts - the income is down but the price is locked in so the retailers are paying for overvalued rent.

This leads to a bit of rent hardball as the retailers can "call their bluff" as they know if they were evicted they could not be replaced with anyone willing to pay the old value and try to force concessions.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by jotm on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:01PM (#23422478)
I wonder how many people asked that during the World Wars? Why do they have to suffer because some rich assholes decided they need every industry to support the war.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by Ididntdothis on Thursday June 04, 2020 @08:24PM (#23423681)
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by ameister14 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:04PM (#23421763)
You'd see a devaluing of the underlying property, so you'd be upside down on your mortgage. Property owners would stop taking care of buildings in terms of rentals, so maintenance would be a significant issue.

There are a lot of bank loans using a real estate asset as collateral - those would now be significantly riskier for the banks to hold, so new loans would probably stall and/or become more restrictive, slowing growth.

Municipal services would start to take a hit next, since a lot of the property taxes go to things like schools and waste disposal.

On the flip side, people not paying their rent would have more money in their bank accounts to cover an unforeseen medical bill. I doubt retail would increase by that much if quarantining was still in place, though.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by willcipriano on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:34PM (#23421428)
It would probably be hard to find a rental during that period, as legally you wouldn't have to pay to occupy the space. Though landlords might be cash strapped enough to let you move in to get the down payment.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by christkv on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:32PM (#23421406)
A collapse of the banks I suspect and having to rescue them again.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by formercoder on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:45PM (#23421536)
Banks shouldn’t have a ton of this stuff on their balance sheets because of post ‘08 changes. The more likely parties to be damaged are asset managers.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by chrisseaton on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:50PM (#23421592)
> Banks shouldn’t have a ton of this stuff on their balance sheets

I don't understand what you mean - banks issue millions and millions of mortages.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by AnimalMuppet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:19PM (#23421941)
But they don't keep the mortgages. They sell most or all of them.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by formercoder on Thursday June 04, 2020 @06:57PM (#23422961)
Correct, they package them up in CDOs and sell them off.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by MobileVet on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:11PM (#23421856)
I asked Paul Krugman this on Twitter and he didn’t reply unfortunately.

Yes to halting the entire chain (mortgage included)but maintaining the interest.

Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by mkolodny on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:43PM (#23421511)
People who make a living by renting out a room/floor would need government assistance to survive.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by monocasa on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:53PM (#23421621)
Yes, most places I've seen suspending rent and mortgage are also giving continuing monetary assistance as well.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by rwmj on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:57PM (#23421682)
Why? They wouldn't be paying rent to their landlords either.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by bosie on Thursday June 04, 2020 @05:10PM (#23421848)
because they aren't running at cost/deficit but make actual money (profits). those would now be gone too.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by kimjongtrill on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:36PM (#23421454)
As long as the people that did pay get theirs back.. that’s cool.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by fortran77 on Thursday June 04, 2020 @07:01PM (#23422996)
There's still property tax. I'm a commercial landlord with no mortgage, but a hefty property tax bill.
Re:More than half of American retailers didn't pay their ren... by UncleOxidant on Thursday June 04, 2020 @04:44PM (#23421527)
Ultimately it will damage the banks that hold the mortgages.