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Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by zozbot234 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @08:37PM (#22579988)
> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus.

China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing masks, social distancing etc. But the trouble is, Italy then made the exact same mistake by being late with containment measures, and now the UK and US are doing the same. So there's nothing to roll one's eyes or raise eyebrows about.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by scarmig on Saturday March 14, 2020 @08:55PM (#22580129)
The full danger was unknown in the initial stages. Provincial officials were downplaying it for various reasons, and until the very end of December it wasn't known to even transmit person-to-person.

Once the threat was clear, the government of China acted much more alacrity and decisiveness than any Western country, which have had months of advance notice.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by zozbot234 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:07PM (#22580207)
"The very end of December" was 20+ days prior to the Wuhan lockdown, which was was essentially the only instance where China officially acknowledged the disease - before then, the local government was having police caution their doctors and scientists not to talk or "spread untrue rumors" about it. In the meantime, people in Wuhan and elsewhere were just hanging out as usual with no social distancing behaviors whatsoever. Not even wearing protective masks, which is a common habit there unlike the West.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by coliveira on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:26PM (#22580306)
People are very quick to blame Chinese officials, but I think they were correct in avoiding panic before knowing for sure the true dimensions of the problem they had at hand. The government has its credibility at stake: if you start using harsh measures without evidence, you lose credibility for the next time it is really needed.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by Renaud on Sunday March 15, 2020 @07:55AM (#22582926)
You have to be kidding.

They were correct in threatening a doctor who reported what he saw (facts) to retract his statements as being _false_?

The local government didn't want to believe in the threat and wanted very much to keep any negative news hushed out of fear of looking bad to the central government.

So there you have it, a country governed by fear where people prefer to hide issues instead of quickly seeking help.

They could have done it through internal channels, without the public knowing but no, they crushed the messengers and tried to hide the facts until it was too late.

The central government admitted it itself: https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1506445-20200203.h...

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by zozbot234 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:30PM (#22580337)
> People are very quick to blame Chinese officials, but I think they were correct in avoiding panic

That's for sure but there's a useful middle ground between mindless panic and total complacency, and these Chinese officials were way too far on the complacency side for quite some time.

[dead]
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by SZJX on Sunday March 15, 2020 @04:54AM (#22582266)
A quite black-and-white view to take when it's shown pretty well in this letter how the containment strategy they adopted apparently cut down the transmission a lot and potentially prevented many deaths. Would an alternative government that you propose do better in China? Very debatable. The world is not a good vs. evil story you know.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by adventured on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:38AM (#22583410)
Most countries would not intentionally cover up serious outbreaks like this, much less do it twice (as previously with SARS).

They wouldn't threaten and silence numerous doctors that tried to warn everyone.

They wouldn't blockade access to one of the world's largest cities, to prevent outside health inspectors from assessing what was really going on. It wasn't until the first week of February that they were willing to let a major contingent of outside experts in, including from the US. That was two months into the outbreak and a point where things had already gotten very bad.

If this had started in France and the US asked to send experts in to help, France would not deny that request, they wouldn't blockade Paris off from all foreign access to hide what was really happening (how bad it was, and what they were doing to people).

[dead]
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by caseysoftware on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:52PM (#22580480)
I live in Austin where people are still lamenting SXSW being canceled and the Democrat Mayor was still encouraging people to go out to concerts after he canceled SXSW.

And the tech press mocked "no handshakes" until less than a month ago.

Stupid knows no political party.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by nojvek on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:19PM (#22580631)
The only way I see the mocking change is when they see their close ones being infected. We haven't seen anything like this (at-least in our lifetime) where the entire world was in semi-lockdown.

Sure our president is really downplaying it, but how do you even fight something that makes some people sick, and not others. There could be 1000s of carriers of COVID-19 who don't even know it.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by inferiorhuman on Sunday March 15, 2020 @02:08AM (#22581677)
Stupid knows no political party.

It's a spectrum of stupid. Moscow Mitch is holding up financial relief because it's a good opportunity to stick it to Planned Parenthood.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by caseysoftware on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:51AM (#22583477)
Your anti-Russia, nationalist rhetoric is not welcome here.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by inferiorhuman on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:07PM (#22589042)
You're conflating self-determination with nationalism, and the upvotes I got would suggest that HN is generally OK with calling out foreign election interference.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by caseysoftware on Monday March 16, 2020 @02:42AM (#22590561)
Looks like lots of people consider them the same.

"Nationalism is an ideology and movement that promotes the interests of a particular nation (as in a group of people) especially with the aim of gaining and maintaining the nation's sovereignty (self-governance) over its homeland. Nationalism holds that each nation should govern itself, free from outside interference (self-determination), that a nation is a natural and ideal basis for a polity,[2] and that the nation is the only rightful source of political power (popular sovereignty)."

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalism

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by jyrkesh on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:48PM (#22580462)
The local police imprisoned a doctor for speaking out about a fast-growing pneumonia disease. They didn't just ignore it, they actively quashed discussion of it
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by throw_564324 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @11:20PM (#22580939)
They did not imprison him.

They did squash discussion of it.

Once the national government found out, they fired the local officials and lauded the doctor as a hero.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by jrumbut on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:41PM (#22580778)
The fact that there wasn't a credible free press to report responsibly on an emerging illness or a free vote to hold officials accountable are not at all unrelated to the authoritarian system that allowed them to build a hospital fast or close a city or whatever they did well on.

I'll admit, though, that I wouldn't trade my right to vote for a cure for the common cold, coronavirus, or anything else.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by zozbot234 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:50PM (#22580816)
> authoritarian system that allowed them to build a hospital fast or close a city or whatever they did well on.

Look, this is a dangerous meme in more ways than one. Italy and Spain managed to lock down entire cities, and those are countries with a strong tradition of democracy. Emergency powers, martial law etc. are a thing, and there's even quite a bit of precedent for using them to deal w/ disease outbreaks. Even in the US.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by bradleyjg on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:48AM (#22583456)
Anglo-American law was strongly influenced by the repeated waves of bubonic plague in England during the middle ages. Though the powers have been rarely used to their full extent, they continue to exist.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by fock on Sunday March 15, 2020 @06:42AM (#22582667)
well, Spain is still a monarchy (and has been since the caliphate was pushed back), had a Civil war, where fascists won and then ruled for 40 years... Then the king declared that he would like democracy more than autoritarian rule (without him). So much to a strong tradition of democracy...
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by tialaramex on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:36AM (#22583402)
Spain has a _constitutional monarch_ the same approach as the United Kingdom. This is actually a more stable choice than America's.

In constitutional monarchy the monarch is Head of State, a figurehead role with no real personal power. Because monarchs are born not elected this figurehead has no semblance of democratic legitimacy, it's obvious to everyone that they shouldn't get any power, yet as a symbol they are long-lived and emphasise continuity even as political change happens around them.

Elected Politicians on the other hand actually run the legislature and executive government.

That is, the laws you obey are made by people you elected to make them, but at times of crisis the living symbol of your country isn't some politician roughly half the country doesn't like.

This works so much better than the US system that Americans charged with trying to make new countries or fix broken ones (after "regime change" for example) do not follow the US model for many decades. If you're an optimist, the US model worked once and maybe they got lucky. If you're a pessimist we're just waiting for the cracks to get bad enough that it falls apart.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by adventured on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:50AM (#22583469)
> This is actually a more stable choice than America's.

You can't support that claim. Historically - all of recorded history - there are less than half a dozen examples that can be argued to be comparable to or to have systems that are more stable than the US over two centuries of time.

Go ahead and list all the constitutional + democratic systems that have lasted for more than two centuries. The European region barely had any democracies as recently as WW1. Here is what that looks like:

https://i.imgur.com/fnJNjIn.png

Now go back to 1850 or 1900. How many were there? So where do you plan to get your data from, to support your premise on stability?

There is long-term instability inherent in all functioning monarchy systems: the source of that instability is that people frequently don't like them, which is why nations have spent the last few hundred years gradually abandoning or neutering monarchy systems. Most of what remains is a cultural trinket. It's why the monarchy in the UK is little more than a facade, a figurehead; it has no real governing power or position, it is of relatively little political consequence and probably never will be again. Even including the UK in this, is a questionable data point because of that. What does the Queen do? Answer: not much, she is nothing more than a quaint cultural nod to the past at this point.

In fact the US has the opposite problem. Its system of government tends to produce too much stability and not enough dynamism (which is what the argument for many political parties is arguing in favor of). That stability often means the US moves slower on reforms and its system is highly resistant to change. Those are the trade-offs inherent in having greater stability.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by tialaramex on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:31AM (#22583656)
So what you've done there is a very common mistake. The US was not the only country built with this approach, it's just the only time it has worked (so far).

Plenty of countries especially in Latin America copied this choice and it didn't work for them. I think the evidence supports the conclusion that's because it's a bad choice.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by ssss11 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @03:38AM (#22582003)
Thry silenced doctors, faked numbers to the medical community and eventually the lockdown was to save the Chinese economy & people not to stop the spread overseas, however, I’m sure the communist party will claim that.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by handedness on Sunday March 15, 2020 @04:46AM (#22582243)
> The full danger was unknown in the initial stages.

The danger was sufficiently known, sufficiently early.

Those sounding the alarm were silenced.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by simonh on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:17AM (#22582342)
The containment situation in Wuhan in the early stages cannot be compared to the situation in European countries or the US now, or even the situation in Wuhan now

In the early stages in Wuhan the virus only existed in Wuhan. A severe lockdown that eliminated the virus there would have eliminated it completely. Full stop. It would have been gone forever.

A draconian lockdown right now in e.g. the UK, or even a few weeks ago, might have eliminated the virus in the UK, but then it would just come back in again. We can’t seal the entire country permanently.

Even in Wuhan, they are easing the lockdown so soon the virus will get back into Wuhan again. It’s just a matter of time before they have another outbreak. It’s simply impossible that it won’t happen.

Lockdowns are important tools to slow the spread of the virus, they are a vital part of our response, but they can only slow it down. They cannot stop it or eliminate it. Also lockdowns are most effective the first time you do them, and then they’re the most effective in the first few weeks.

Impose a heavy lockdown too soon, and it’s like using up your most powerful ammunition before the enemy is in effective range of your weapons. Letting the enemy get closer might mean accepting casualties early on, but fewer casualties overall and a better chance of victory. It’s a hard, painful choice to have to take.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by MiroF on Sunday March 15, 2020 @02:24AM (#22581734)
I am not a huge defender of China, but it is disingenuous to claim that not realizing the import of the virus in the first 10 days is anywhere near the magnitude of the Italian government's failure.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by bonzini on Sunday March 15, 2020 @04:08AM (#22582117)
The Italian government as the first Western country facing an outbreak was dealing with the prisoner's paradox. If you are the only one instituting strong lockdown measures you are the only one paying the economic price. It was wrong, but it's understandable that the government hoped that the infection could be contained to two clusters. The other European governments and the US on the other hand have absolutely no excuse.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by iforgotpassword on Sunday March 15, 2020 @06:33AM (#22582629)
So you're arbitrarily suggesting that being the first western country is special. China's economy was already affected at that point. In our global world, why doesn't that count? By your logic, I could also say the US doesn't do enough for obvious reasons: They're the first western non-European country affected. They don't want to be the only ones (after China and Italy) paying the economic price.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by bonzini on Sunday March 15, 2020 @06:46AM (#22582679)
It's special in that the Western world and their economies are much more interconnected and fragile than China or Iran, and South Korea was considered special due to the sect. It's also special in that they didn't have any experience with SARS.

Besides Italy did start to apply lockdown measures to specific towns, and closed schools when they had 20 cases. It was insufficient but at least it was an attempt. The US has had clusters out of control in Washington state for almost as long and the federal agencies were actually trying to silence them. And another in NYC, which is basically the economic powerhouse of the United States.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by iforgotpassword on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:50AM (#22583182)
> It was insufficient but at least it was an attempt.

And it should've been clear with all the data we had that it would be. Don't get me wrong, I don't think any of the other western countries does it right. Italy got unlucky because it was the first country where shit hit the fan. Might as well have been Germany if they wouldn't have gotten lucky in stopping the spread from their Bavaria case. But I fully stand by my point anyways that no country in the west did a good job, and points like yours are weak excuses at best, since it basically boils down to "well we're delaying taking down our economy a bit and make sure the rest of Europe suffers too, so we're not as ducked in comparison to them." There's certainly some logic to that, but it shows how shallow our advanced civilized world really is.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by bonzini on Sunday March 15, 2020 @01:13PM (#22584735)
> But I fully stand by my point anyways that no country in the west did a good job

FWIW I totally agree.

> Might as well have been Germany if they wouldn't have gotten lucky in stopping the spread from their Bavaria case.

Yes, that's what Italy was hoping to do. They didn't realize how contagious this thing is.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by kerng on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:09AM (#22583280)
It's interesting that the encouragement for self isolation in Washington came from companies like Microsoft about 10 days ago. That raised awareness quite a bit.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by garmaine on Saturday March 14, 2020 @08:59PM (#22580151)
> China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan...

Uh, China dropped the ball for a full 3 months since the first reports of a novel respiratory disease started back in November. First denying it, then jailing the doctors who tried to raise the alarm. Not to mention not enforcing their own laws regarding food hygiene put in place after SARS which would have prevented the transmission in the first place.

Yeah, they're now showing containment measures that work. But they could have stopped this in its tracks before going global, or prevented it entirely.

Too little, too late.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by adinobro on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:15PM (#22580245)
New viruses come out all the time. This viruses wasn't isolated as different till the end of December.

The Doctor wasn't jailed ...

The virus was spread at the market. It didn't start at the market.

Until we know where it started we don't know if it would have stopped the virus or not.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by c789a123 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:54PM (#22580489)
The doctors were not jailed, because luckily CCP need them to work to fight the virus. Some of them died for it already, mostly due to the hard work, insufficient protection CCP provided to the doctors, and in one case at least, intentionally punish the doc by delay his treatment.

Talking about the origin of this virus, this paper of 2015 is quite interesting: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 . In this paper, the wuhan P4 institute people basically described how they produced a prototype of the 2019 wuhan virus.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by adinobro on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:32PM (#22580710)
He was brought in to sign a confession/apology on the 3rd before things were out of control.

He is/was also a member of the CCP.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by licebmi__at__ on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:21PM (#22580650)
"the people who sign this letter are not aware that they're being manipulated by CCP, in the meantime, let me push conspiracy theories".
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by c789a123 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:28AM (#22583072)
I said in my comment clearly it is a hypothesis. While it is important and useful to think logically the Euclidean way, it is also important to find clues and make hypothesis, that is how people discover things in the real world.

Without information about how this letter was prepared and signed among these people in detail, my hypothesis stands.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by garmaine on Saturday March 14, 2020 @11:23PM (#22580964)
> The virus was spread at the market. It didn't start at the market.

The virus came from bats. The "wildlife market" in question sold raw bat meat. How else would it have gotten there?

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by dboreham on Sunday March 15, 2020 @12:03AM (#22581156)
Is this known for a fact? I thought the bat angle was more a most likely scenario but not proven.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by adinobro on Sunday March 15, 2020 @01:25AM (#22581517)
No, Chinese markets generally don't sell bat meat or eat bats.

They eat lots of animals but bats are not one of them. (I'm sure there is a village in China where they do eat bats. It is a big country.)

The photos you see online of Chinese people eating bats are Tourist in the Pacific.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by garmaine on Sunday March 15, 2020 @01:40AM (#22581571)
Correct, Chinese markets generally don't sell such things. I know, I'm Chinese ;)

But this particular part of China does. It's more a subculture derived from one of the minority groups in that province, but it's there.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by SZJX on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:07AM (#22582300)
Never heard about such a thing. Sounds like some sort of conspiracy theory unless you have concrete proof of that.

The original hypothesis was that some other animal sold at the market acted as an intermediate host between bat and human, just like the case in 2003 SARS, but this is also not proven.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by dependenttypes on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:52AM (#22583480)
Conspiracy theory has a specific meaning. Their claim might be false but even if this is the case they are not implying the existence of any conspiracy.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by coliveira on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:28PM (#22580321)
Chinese containment measures gave other countries a head start of at least two months. Too bad that no government took the challenge seriously.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by robocat on Sunday March 15, 2020 @12:09AM (#22581183)
Taiwan started acting on 31st December. Taiwan were prepared because they predicted an event like this could happen. Taiwan hasn’t been hit by a sledgehammer even though they have huge flows of Chinese people travelling.

Any delays by other 1st world countries after 31st Dec are largely their own fault.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by makomk on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:28AM (#22582370)
I don't think you've followed this argument to its logical conclusion. Taiwan started acting on the 31st of December because they didn't believe a word coming out the Chinese government's mouth. They haven't been hit like a sledgehammer even though they usually have huge flows of Chinese people travelling because they promptly rounded up and quarantined travellers from the affected regions and their close contacts back when China was falsely claiming it was a small outbreak with no evidence of person-to-person transmission, and then locked down travel entirely over the objections of China and the WHO which insisted doing so was racist and counterproductive. Any delays by other 1st world countries after 31st Dec are therefore largely their own fault for believing a word coming from of a totalitarian dictatorship with a long history of cover-ups and their parrots over at the WHO.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by georgemcbay on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:19PM (#22580269)
None of that is really the point though. The point is that so many other countries are dropping the ball in the same (or worse!) ways than China did after having the luxury of seeing what happened in China.

If you have 3 people and one slips on a patch of ice and falls you could argue they should understand how ice works and should have been more careful, but if you have 2 other people see that person fall and they blithely walk across the ice and also fall, who should you judge more harshly?

For me personally, I'm going with the people who saw the result of the first event and then followed the same path.

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by gpderetta on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:41AM (#22583422)
Maybe the best solution would be to get rid of the patch of ice instead of finding someone to blame, while people keep slipping over it.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by throw_564324 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @11:28PM (#22580996)
They traced the virus back to November, but at the time it was not a serious threat. They just didn’t have enough data then.

Let’s put it this way, other countries have had a full 2 months of warning and preparation time and they are also dropping the ball.

[dead]
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by SZJX on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:00AM (#22582286)
Not sure if this is a parody or not. So in your logic anything good being said about CCP is surely their propaganda, and they can do nothing else but being evil and destroying the world? Well I have bad news for you: the world is probably not as black-and-white, good vs. evil as you think. They do some stuffs wrong or at least controversial, and also some others right, or effective, just like every other political entity. Otherwise China would definitely not be where it is today, economically. Even the WHO recommended a lot the actions by China. Memeing them like Kim Jong-Un doesn't get you anywhere.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by c789a123 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:24AM (#22583047)
WHO? Italy lockdown its cities on Mar 9, and WHO declares wuhan virus pandemic on Mar 11. Before that, WHO discourages country to take effective measures and cut out traffic with China. Luckily, not all countries are fooled by this idiotic org and take its own measures. Taiwan, who is not even a member of WHO, took good measures and protected itself. Unfortunately Italy and other European countries are fooled and cut out traffic too late. That is the result of they trusted CCP and WHO too much.

Chinese Economy? Is the gain worth all the environmental damage and pollution everywhere?

If CCP gov is like the other political entity, would it when having a SARS outbreak in 2003, make an even bigger one like wuhan virus outbreak and do even worse cover up to spread it around the world?

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by gpderetta on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:43AM (#22583429)
Italy was one of the first countries to cut down traffic from China months ago. Didn't do any good.
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by c789a123 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @09:59AM (#22583510)
Where you got that info? Any link?
Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by gpderetta on Monday March 16, 2020 @08:26AM (#22592052)
https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/...

It happened on the 31st of Jan. I think that was before Taiwan stop, but I'm not 100% sure.