1) Traditionally the Chinese government largely left the affairs of HK to HKers (in reality just the few families), so there is no reason to step in and be the bad guy right now.
2) This protest/riot is far more complicated than it seems, considering the meeting with the US diplomat as well as the involvement of the boss of next digital. Geopolitics plays a hand here.
3) Protesters should target the ruling families (e.g. the realtors) instead, thus would gain the psychological support of mainlanders. Targeting the tourists doesn't help.
4) Hope nothing really bad happens and everything goes as peacefully as possible.
Edit: As for the triad thing, it's far more than that, the Hong Kong Police Force itself is suspected to be in collusion: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=16CiwPChpr0
If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this is something they can do, to give themselves the option in the future. I could be wrong, but I certainly hope not.
If the army rolls in, I'll probably seriously reconsider sticking around and might book a one-way out of here, because at that point it might well turn into a war zone.
Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.
This is why I said "openly."
Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people.
That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.
BTW, HK while definitely not the economic powerhouse it once was, it still has a pretty special place as a truly international city for the PRC government, which is something intangible and cannot be expressed in pure GDP number.
Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves.
The police will respond to that anywhere.
(This is already another HN post "Chinese military entering Shenzen just across the boarder with HongKong": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20683940)
In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will.
It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.
Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912...
And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.
Stamford Raffles "took" Singapore from the Malay sultanate in the 1820s. In 1963, we finally got it back, but let them go barely two years later due to ingrained cultural differences that manifested during the meantime.
With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.
This is very different from HK and China.
Maybe to you? It's clear from China's actions that they think otherwise and they're willing to do whatever it takes to ensure control and unification.
7 and a half centuries before Yue Fei, there were Liu Yu[1]. 100 years before him there was Zu Ti. They both tried to fight northern nomads, and were remembered till this day due to their success.
Unification of the nation IS in the genes of the people. There is no question of that.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yue_Fei [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Wu_of_Liu_Song
Citation needed.
Cherry picked facts are not universal truth...
I wonder how much of that unity sentiment is/was constructed and pushed on by leadership due to the area around current China being littered with competing kingdoms and a lot of internal strife and disarray throughout its history, not just the past 100 years.
In Chinese cinema, or at least some films, the theme of unity and to some extent 'glorious leadership' seems to be prevalent. Just came to mind that even in some Jet Li films (or equivalent) set in more ancient times you could probably be faced with some monologues or statements to that tune and at least I was a bit taken aback by how blatant it felt.
It's trying to push a narrative to argue what is part of the country...
Almost everything we appear to hold so dear and immutable or self evident seems kinda arbitrary depending on how far back you go and whether you consider yourself part of this team or that.
Nationalism or tribalism is a whole lot of make believe, is what I'm saying.
There is their whole mythology of "centuries of humiliation" and their warlord period for actual stand together or hang apart sentiment. However the sort of "unity" talked about is really just propagandized expansionism. I see it no different than Putin's foolish revanchism for the former USSR.
As one Chinese taxi driver in Kedah told me, they were supposed to keep quiet and stay away from politics. At least back then, especially influential Malays feared their absolute power is in danger. Didn't help that Li (who always wanted Malaysia to be a state were every ethnicity has equal rights) openly spoke about how poor Malays are held back both by their religious and lay leaders.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3014695...
University starts again soon and it is expected that the protests will loose steam.
That's a boring story so people don't talk about it.
Because from my view, they are still going strong.
Marshal Law = halfway decent comic book
Martial Law = military dictatorship of an area
Not sure why your comment was killed, because I think it's a valid question. But since it was, responding here.
Yes, they're owned by Alibaba. I happen to know some SCMP employees which gives me confidence that they're still editorially independent. They of course have a pretty pro-status-quo stance, and I don't recommend on relying on them entirely as your only source of information, but I don't believe China has any editorial influence.
(Also important to note Alibaba isn't necessarily in the CCP's best graces lately.)
> You only just have to open the SCMP front page to find them calling military deployments in a stadium near Hong Kong "drills", citing anonymous sources that say "they are not of concern" and quoting liberally from anonymous posters on Chinese message boards spouting hate.
Of course the drills are sabre-rattling, a show of force intended to send a message, and preparation for a future assault if necessary -- but they're still drills, not use of the military in anger.
> Poland partly mobilized its troops on August 24, 1939, and fully mobilized on August 30, 1939, following the increased confrontations with Germany since March 1939. On September 1, 1939 Germany invaded Poland, which prompted both France and Britain to declare war on Germany.
> On 30 August, the Polish Navy sent its destroyer flotilla to Britain, executing the Peking Plan. On the same day, Marshal of Poland Edward Rydz-Śmigły announced the mobilization of Polish troops. However, he was pressured into revoking the order by the French, who apparently still hoped for a diplomatic settlement, failing to realize that the Germans were fully mobilized and concentrated at the Polish border.
I find it very hard to believe that SCMP has both accurate and unbiased reporting after reading the Wikipedia article. This makes your comment read like a China-sponsored chill.
I'm talking about this as someone who is neither if favor of any party. Media is going to be either pro or against. It's very hard to find an unbiased media. An unbiased media needs to earn their reputation with time and a lot of effort. They also must have independent and verifiable funding that does not cross with neither party.
I'm not denying that they have a pretty pro-establishment point of view when it comes to their editorial. I'm not convinced that China has a major influence over their reporting, however.
Anyways, others recommend the Hong Kong Free Press as an alternative. Or you could also follow along on Twitter or join the private groups.
First, there's a ton of misinformation out there. Few sources have entirely accurate information, but the best English-language resource I've found on the subject is the local paper South China Morning Post (scmp.com). They have pretty accurate and unbiased live reporting of the protests as it flares up. Twitter and private groups have unfiltered live information.
The movement is still described as "anti extradition bill," but has long stopped being about the extradition bill that triggered it all. At this point, it's simply a revolution against an increasingly worrying shift towards Beijing-controlled authoritarianism.
The mood has intensified and darkened since the beginning of the movement in June. There is a lot more disagreement now about whether the protester's tactics are justified. The protests are losing a lot of general support, but still attract overwhelmingly large crowds. Police has stepped up the aggression, the gov't isn't budging, and dissidents are increasingly angry and willing to resort to violence and guerrilla tactics. There's also the added element of the white shirt counter-protesters (allegedly triads, allegedly China-backed) inciting indiscriminate violence to attempt to scare the public into distancing themselves from the movement.
Nobody has died yet, but the violence is getting worse and some people are getting seriously hurt. Yesterday's flare-up at the airport was in response to anger about a female medic protester being shot point-blank in the face by police and losing an eye. There were some pretty horrific scenes of police shooting tear gas rounds at close range in Kwai Fong MTR station (which is against the rules for how to use tear gas and which endangers both protesters and bystanders and MTR employees alike).
My life here hasn't been affected much, but I do make an effort to avoid the protests area which aren't exactly safe. There have been quite a few of regular transit disruption. I've definitely have had several days of cancelled plans due to transportation issues. I've had friends crash with me because their neighborhood was in the middle of a protest fight. I've had a friend get tear gassed walking home a bit too close to a group of protesters.
Hope this all gets resolved peacefully soon, but let's be real… it won't. I expect this will continue to escalate. I'm watching China's response carefully, because there's a risk they make some pretty unprecedented moves.
For perspective, here's a comment I wrote the day of the first violent protest on June 12th (which I attended): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20167292
Happy to answer any questions from the perspective of an expat on the ground.