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Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by londons_explore on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @05:54AM (#20684120)
What do you think are the chances that the tanks roll in, all protestors are shot or arrested, marshal law is declared for a few months, and eventually Hong Kong becomes just another city in China without its own special governance or laws?
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by kenneth on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:02AM (#20684166)
I think we're still pretty far away from that. China has a lot to lose on the international stage if anything like that were to go down. They would much rather have the local police deal with it (since the local police is aligned with Beijing) and keep plausible deniability.

If anything, I think the threats of involving the army are more about (1) deterring supporters and (2) planting the seeds of this idea that this is something they can do, to give themselves the option in the future. I could be wrong, but I certainly hope not.

If the army rolls in, I'll probably seriously reconsider sticking around and might book a one-way out of here, because at that point it might well turn into a war zone.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by culturestate on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:15AM (#20684227)
Having lived in Hong Kong (and China) for a long time, I think you're wrong. I doubt very much that protesters will be shot in the streets or anything so drastic, but the city is very close to having the PLA openly deployed to "back up" the HKPF.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:31AM (#20684324)
FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF.

Personally I think the PLA option is a non-starter at the moment. HK for all its bads is still vitally important to the Chinese economy especially during the current trade war with the USA.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by culturestate on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:43AM (#20684383)
> FYI, some alleged that mainland policemen are already operating inside the HKPF.

This is why I said "openly."

Economically, Hong Kong is increasingly irrelevant to China - it's only like the fifth largest city by GDP, and there are 10 more catching up quickly. HK is far more important as a symbol, and if I were Xi Jinping headed into a turbulent global economy with flagging growth at home I wouldn't want it to look like I couldn't control my people.

That said, it's a delicate balancing act. Too little response and you seem weak; too harsh and you draw international condemnation and confirm the worst fear of everyone who is counting on China to join the world order rather than try and upend it.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:13AM (#20684588)
PLA is different from PAP though although we may just be disagreeing on a technicality.

BTW, HK while definitely not the economic powerhouse it once was, it still has a pretty special place as a truly international city for the PRC government, which is something intangible and cannot be expressed in pure GDP number.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by mytailorisrich on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:10AM (#20684197)
I'm not sure we can say that the police is "aligned with Beijing".

Whatever one's opinion of what the protesters are demanding they are breaking the law and rioting (as per Hong Kong law that dates back from British rule), and many of their actions are simply not acceptable. They are really not helping themselves.

The police will respond to that anywhere.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by PlasticTank on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:19AM (#20684252)
Funnily enough tyrants don't usually listen unless forced, this is what a fight for freedom looks like. Some things are more important than convenience and money.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by pimmen on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:29AM (#20684315)
The reaction from a Westerner is ”wow, this is nothing compared to all the crazy shit we had to do to get democracy, and now with the democratic institutions and independent justice systems in place, definitely worth it”.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by cmroanirgo on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:03AM (#20684168)
Pretty high: https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz

(This is already another HN post "Chinese military entering Shenzen just across the boarder with HongKong": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20683940)

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Mengkudulangsat on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:12AM (#20684210)
There's a third way; getting "Singapore-d".

In the 1960s Singapore annoyed Malaysia so much they were essentially ejected from the federation against their will.

It was a major shock at the time, but decades later the two countries are still mostly amicable. I sincerely hope China would consider this route.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by culturestate on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:17AM (#20684238)
This will never happen under the current regime, if for no other reason than it would embolden Taiwan to "declare" independence and give the world cover to acknowledge it. Taiwan is far too strategically important to China to allow that.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:26AM (#20684292)
Agree. Don't count on PRC under the current leadership to think anything remotely like that.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by mytailorisrich on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:21AM (#20684257)
Why would China even consider "ejecting" a part of its territory that they fought over for a long time to finally get back?

Recovery of lost territories and reunification of the country is a core policy of the Chinese government(s) since 1912...

And as noted in the replies, striving for national unity is an ancient theme of Chinese national psyche.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Mengkudulangsat on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:38AM (#20684357)
Which I find to be irrational.

Stamford Raffles "took" Singapore from the Malay sultanate in the 1820s. In 1963, we finally got it back, but let them go barely two years later due to ingrained cultural differences that manifested during the meantime.

With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by 9nGQluzmnq3M on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:35AM (#20684716)
"ingrained cultural differences" -> read: Malay politicians didn't want to deal with a large Chinese-majority city run by a headstrong union leader (Lee Kuan Yew) who could not be counted on to play ball with UMNO.

This is very different from HK and China.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by nesadi on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:05AM (#20684530)
> With the rise of so many capable cities on the mainland, perhaps pursuit of unification is just not worth the trouble anymore.

Maybe to you? It's clear from China's actions that they think otherwise and they're willing to do whatever it takes to ensure control and unification.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Aeolun on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @08:34AM (#20685145)
You can’t really have a bastion of free speech and democracy on your doorstep as an authoritarian state.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by danieltillett on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:40AM (#20684368)
Unity of China as a concept is far older than 1912.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:28AM (#20684303)
For some perspective, in 1912 the Communist Party of China wasn't even a thing.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by mytailorisrich on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:32AM (#20684329)
Yes, for Chinese these territorial issues are bigger that the Communist Party. In Western countries they would be called "bi-partisan" or "cross-parties" because there is a national consensus on them.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:46AM (#20684404)
Am not so sure about this, the current emphasis on "territorial integrity" is IMO as much, if not more of, a result of PRC propaganda as established on any historical basis.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by echaozh on Wednesday August 14, 2019 @12:28AM (#20692711)
No. 900 years ago, a Chinese general tried to take back land from northern nomads and got killed.[0] And he was honored for 9 centuries in the country, even by Qing emperors who themselves were decendants of the northern nomads. In Hangzhou, there was a temple built for him.

7 and a half centuries before Yue Fei, there were Liu Yu[1]. 100 years before him there was Zu Ti. They both tried to fight northern nomads, and were remembered till this day due to their success.

Unification of the nation IS in the genes of the people. There is no question of that.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yue_Fei [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_Wu_of_Liu_Song

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Friday August 16, 2019 @03:02PM (#20718498)
>Unification of the nation IS in the genes of the people. There is no question of that.

Citation needed.

Cherry picked facts are not universal truth...

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by mytailorisrich on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:51AM (#20684435)
It is not PRC propaganda. It's the other way round: PRC propaganda exploits this national feeling.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by nugga on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @12:37PM (#20687448)
How do you qualify what constitutes a part of the country though? A whole lot of land changing hands and being conquered by force happened throughout the world's history.

I wonder how much of that unity sentiment is/was constructed and pushed on by leadership due to the area around current China being littered with competing kingdoms and a lot of internal strife and disarray throughout its history, not just the past 100 years.

In Chinese cinema, or at least some films, the theme of unity and to some extent 'glorious leadership' seems to be prevalent. Just came to mind that even in some Jet Li films (or equivalent) set in more ancient times you could probably be faced with some monologues or statements to that tune and at least I was a bit taken aback by how blatant it felt.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by mytailorisrich on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @12:48PM (#20687571)
Hong Kong was not the only port grabbed by foreign powers. There was also Macau, Xiamen, Shanghai, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao... I might forget others.

It's trying to push a narrative to argue what is part of the country...

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by nugga on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @03:59PM (#20689627)
The 'narrative' on the international stage often times seems to be might is right. Cute mythological stories hardly change that.

Almost everything we appear to hold so dear and immutable or self evident seems kinda arbitrary depending on how far back you go and whether you consider yourself part of this team or that.

Nationalism or tribalism is a whole lot of make believe, is what I'm saying.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:14AM (#20684595)
Source?
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by markus_zhang on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:38AM (#20684731)
History book.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Saturday August 17, 2019 @06:50AM (#20723314)
Which one(s)?
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by danieltillett on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:42AM (#20684379)
About the only thing you will get unity on from the Chinese people is unity.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Nasrudith on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:08AM (#20684553)
Not really. Tibet and Taiwan say hi and something about grass-mud-horse.

There is their whole mythology of "centuries of humiliation" and their warlord period for actual stand together or hang apart sentiment. However the sort of "unity" talked about is really just propagandized expansionism. I see it no different than Putin's foolish revanchism for the former USSR.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by incompatible on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:50AM (#20684429)
Sure, why not. Perhaps at the same time they could organize referenda on independence for Tibet, Taiwan and Xinjiang. Maybe they could open the global Internet to their citizens and abandon the ridiculous censorship programs they run. They could also submit to international adjudication on the South China Sea. They would be reasonable things to do.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by odiroot on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:54AM (#20684452)
As far as I've heard from Singaporeans, they didn't "annoy" Malaysia. Ethnic Chinese politicians got popular (well, especially Li Guangyao) and threatened the stability and harmony of majority Muslim Malay country.

As one Chinese taxi driver in Kedah told me, they were supposed to keep quiet and stay away from politics. At least back then, especially influential Malays feared their absolute power is in danger. Didn't help that Li (who always wanted Malaysia to be a state were every ethnicity has equal rights) openly spoke about how poor Malays are held back both by their religious and lay leaders.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by C1sc0cat on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @09:57AM (#20685854)
That's not what the research I found I did when considering working out there - basically racism.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by majia on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:22AM (#20684266)
It's more likely that the protest causes huge damage to HK economy, and HK people start to get tired of it. At some point people may decide to take economic incentives from Beijing and become another city in China with some superficial autonomy status.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by loyukfai on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:41AM (#20684374)
If that's true the anti extradition bill amendment would have gone throught and the 2M people or however many wouldn't have turned out to the street on 16th of June.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3014695...

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Nasrudith on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:50AM (#20684430)
What is the value of not being disappeared? I highly doubt they would have any takers.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by ephemeralism on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:17AM (#20684234)
Why would they do this and not just continue to use riot police and tire the protesters out, as has recently been done with success in France?
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by adinobro on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:57AM (#20684469)
That seems to be what they are doing.

University starts again soon and it is expected that the protests will loose steam.

That's a boring story so people don't talk about it.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by the-dude on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @07:39AM (#20684740)
Do you have any sources for the 'tire out' and 'with succes' in France?

Because from my view, they are still going strong.

Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by xhruso00 on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @06:02AM (#20684164)
Killing people in Hong Kong would put China into very difficult political position in the world. New sanctions would emerge and this is something China doesn't want. I think they will go with martial law & arrests.
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by cattlefarmer on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @10:12AM (#20685989)
The world stood around and did nothing as China put Uighurs into concentration camps. Why would this be any different?
Re:Protests Put Hong Kong on Collision Course with China’s C... by Accujack on Tuesday August 13, 2019 @11:41AM (#20686875)
One small nitpick:

Marshal Law = halfway decent comic book

Martial Law = military dictatorship of an area