Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by breakyerself on Sunday November 15, 2026 @01:57PM
(#50509595)
Any time this stuff comes up it's important to understand that this el Nino is occuring in the context of a global climate that is warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. The risks inherent to weather and climate are growing all the time.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by 9rx on Sunday November 15, 2026 @03:40PM
(#50510471)
> The risks inherent to weather and climate are growing all the time.
Risk is subjective, so this doesn't mean much without quantifying what you feel is risky to you. Moreover, of all the risks we have heard expressed in the population, there is no unary growth value. There is a change in distribution, and some risks have grown, but some risks have also shrunk. If you are relying on the reader to bring their own idea of what the risks are, this is almost certainly going to be false.
I expect you say this with good intentions, trying to instil fear in the reader to convince them that climate change is something to pay attention to. But this kind of "absolute truth" that doesn't hold up to scrutiny is what actually turns people off paying attention to something that justifiably does warrant attention. Let's do better.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by Sharlin on Sunday November 15, 2026 @03:56PM
(#50510652)
"Yeah, tens of millions died and hundreds of millions were displaced, but in the meantime we made a lot of value for the shareholders so it wasn't all bad."
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by tingletech on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:05PM
(#50510757)
I thought risk was defined as probability times cost (or at least that is what you are trying to minimize in risk management) -- so if the probability of costs goes up, would not also risk? You don't have to enumerate each specific risk to believe that risks are growing.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by 9rx on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:11PM
(#50510803)
I'd say more commonly we say consequence, but I think you can fairly use cost and consequence interchangeably here. They have similar meaning. However, consequence/cost too are subjective. Thus risk is also subjective. Something cannot be objective if its variables are subjective.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by infinite_spin on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:41PM
(#50511113)
Costs are tangible, making them objective, even if they have underlying subjectivities. The cost of milk is objective, even if your purchasing habits are subjective.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by 9rx on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:53PM
(#50511226)
You are correct that "cost" has more than one definition, but, as already discussed, the one we are talking about equates to consequence, not an amount of money. Your milk analogy doesn't fit. Whether or not a so-called consequence is seen as a consequence is in the eye of the beholder.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by breakyerself on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:23PM
(#50510922)
There is significantly more moisture in the atmosphere now meaning the storms that el nino brings will have a greater capacity to cause flooding. The water the piles up on the west coast of north America will be in addition to the sea level rise that already occurred. Making coastal flooding worse. A drier winter in the Pacific northwest means less snowpack and therefore less water available in the summer with global warming this is exacerbated by the loss of mountain glaciers which help balance seasonal variability. Heating the western Pacific means el nino has always been bad for fisheries there, but layering it on top of global warming can increasingly devastate fish populations there.
Our infrastructure and agriculture are designed around a climate regime that is increasingly becoming a thing of the past. I think your attitude about this shit is nonsensical
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by Loquebantur on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:18PM
(#50510864)
The important part to understand here is the childish reaction by major parts of the US populace to the outsize responsibility their country has for the catastrophic development of the global climate.
Instead of acknowledging the scientific facts and the ethical implications thereof, they engage in "catch me if you can"-tactics.
They let themselves be willfully utilized as a shield of ignorance against the financial restitution they owe. Not to speak of the implied loss of influence in the world economy after fossil fuels are phased out.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by echelon on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:38PM
(#50511078)
Catch-22:
Telling them this will make them vote even stronger in the other way. Especially if you call them stupid, selfish, etc.
You have to show them how it impacts eg. the cost of insurance for coastal properties. But even so, this is hard to convey. The people voting aren't feeling it and are told by coastal elites what to care about - changing their opinion in the opposite direction.
Some countries are even going to benefit tremendously from warming, eg. Russia gets more arable land and access to the North Sea, which is fantastic for trade, energy, and defense.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by cmrdporcupine on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:38PM
(#50511082)
It's gotten bad all over the western world. Here in Canada, just mentioning climate change and policies to restrict CO2 emissions puts you in the political doghouse and gets you crucified on social media. It's just apparently not a concern now. Carney has eviscerated all regulation, and enabling exponential growth of the oil export sector is now a national emergency justified by tariffs, etc. etc.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by bko on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:49PM
(#50511194)
US has reduced their global carbon emissions. Even when adjusting for trade, it is down considerably over the last 20 years. Mainly due to dematerialization, basically a free market economy doing more with less (e.g. efficient packaging uses less materials and is cheaper).
US and the Western world can continue reducing carbon emissions and it won't make a bit of difference.
Try spending 5 minutes on google before you spout uniformed opinions
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by Fraterkes on Sunday November 15, 2026 @03:36PM
(#50510436)
Always strikes me as bizarre with these bots that even the current cheapest llm's could have written a much more sensical fake reply based on just reading the title.
Re:A short explainer on how El Niño works [video]
by vibebingo on Sunday November 15, 2026 @04:01PM
(#50510709)
I would be curious too. That said each pilot must avoid dangerous weather. There is a recent captain steeeve video where the pilot does that. ATC won't vector them around the storm (not sure why...) so they declare an emergency then they are free to fly as needed to avoid it.
Risk is subjective, so this doesn't mean much without quantifying what you feel is risky to you. Moreover, of all the risks we have heard expressed in the population, there is no unary growth value. There is a change in distribution, and some risks have grown, but some risks have also shrunk. If you are relying on the reader to bring their own idea of what the risks are, this is almost certainly going to be false.
I expect you say this with good intentions, trying to instil fear in the reader to convince them that climate change is something to pay attention to. But this kind of "absolute truth" that doesn't hold up to scrutiny is what actually turns people off paying attention to something that justifiably does warrant attention. Let's do better.
Our infrastructure and agriculture are designed around a climate regime that is increasingly becoming a thing of the past. I think your attitude about this shit is nonsensical
Instead of acknowledging the scientific facts and the ethical implications thereof, they engage in "catch me if you can"-tactics.
They let themselves be willfully utilized as a shield of ignorance against the financial restitution they owe. Not to speak of the implied loss of influence in the world economy after fossil fuels are phased out.
Telling them this will make them vote even stronger in the other way. Especially if you call them stupid, selfish, etc.
You have to show them how it impacts eg. the cost of insurance for coastal properties. But even so, this is hard to convey. The people voting aren't feeling it and are told by coastal elites what to care about - changing their opinion in the opposite direction.
Some countries are even going to benefit tremendously from warming, eg. Russia gets more arable land and access to the North Sea, which is fantastic for trade, energy, and defense.
Sorry, great grand-children.
US and the Western world can continue reducing carbon emissions and it won't make a bit of difference.
Try spending 5 minutes on google before you spout uniformed opinions
https://ourworldindata.org/profile/co2/united-states
https://ourworldindata.org/consumption-based-co2
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily
https://youtu.be/tWhcTTC-pyw