CARB only nudges manufacturers, but the market’s own purchase preferences are doing the big push.
Perhaps the biggest nudge is that gasoline is undertaxed. Consumers will never see a reason to stop driving a 18-25mpg truck when gas being less than $5 a gallon is considered a “high” price. The gas tax hasn’t kept up with inflation.
I don’t love the ford F-150 for being a monster truck, but consider this: with the right configuration it sears 6 adults comfortably, plus having a bed for cargo. Families legitimately replace minivans and other family vehicles with it, plus it can tow and haul being the body on frame truck that it is.
Either way, if the Maverick gets 37MPG already, seems like it’s not that much of an ask to get it to 67mpg.
If Slate can make a $25,000 EV truck I don’t see why the Ford can’t do the same.
I see a lot of arguments around the idea that these mpg figures are unrealistic or unattainable by the auto industry, but in reality they are just pushing the industry to make changes they are already capable of making but don’t want to bother with.
> If Slate can make a $25,000 EV truck I don’t see why Ford can’t do the same.
With inflation running so hot in the US, I will be very surprised if they can keep their promise for a 25K USD base model truck, and maintain it for any significant period of time. I found the preorder agreement here: https://www.slate.auto/en/terms/preorder
> 1. Preorder
> By submitting your Preorder and paying the non-refundable deposit (the “Preorder Deposit”), you are securing a firm time slot for the production of a Truck. If you choose to place a Preorder prior to being assigned a delivery window, you will be assigned one when available. This Agreement does not constitute a purchase agreement for a Truck and you are not obligated to purchase a Truck. You will be required to enter into a separate Vehicle Purchase Agreement closer to the time of delivery in order to purchase a Truck and you will be able to select any accessories and configure your Truck at that time. The Vehicle Purchase Agreement will include the final price sheet for your configured Truck and may be with a separate Slate entity. Your Preorder becomes effective upon your acceptance of these Terms and your payment of the Preorder Deposit.
I created a poll for this topic here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50448128
The Ford Fathom isn't that far off.
Also, it's Corporate Average Fuel Economy. Not Model Average Fuel Economy. So those 150k or so Mavericks have to offset the to the like 600k or so F-Series pickups being sold with 400+HP motors.
Ford has never paid a CAFE fine, despite selling predominantly gas guzzling pickups, SUVs, and having its only car being a sports car. This is because of the aforementioned credits they get for flex fuel support, etc.
All while the Maverick has a bed that probably can't properly move a couch.
You probably can't really fit a couch on the back of a kei truck either, but it's ok because they're cute.
[1] https://www.vehiclesizes.com/compare/3771-7714/ford-maverick...
The appeal of a Maverick is that it’s a normal family vehicle that drives just like a passenger car while having a bed where you can put dirty stuff.
I know I see a lot of light duty fleets that switched from Rangers to F-150s only because the Ranger was discontinued and there were no small trucks to switch to.
These are businesses that need a 6 foot bed for gear, but don't need to have more than one seat (but two is fine), and would like fuel efficiency and dollar efficiency.
Some of them went to work vans, but nobody is selling those right now either.
Americans collectively purchase over 1 million trucks a year. They come in all kinds of different form factors from work truck with unpainted bumpers to 700HP supercharged dune runners, there are massive couches on wheels with interior made from saddle leather, to trucks pushing 1000ft-lbs to torque. There are EVs trucks with 400 miles of range and crossovers with the hatch turned into a tiny bed. There's even a Jeep Wranger with a bed (Gladiator).
If there's a significant market for a truck niche, it's covered. Trucks are far and away the most diverse segment of the US auto market. If manufactures killed of the truck you want, it's because they apparently can't find 1,999 other people to buy that trim.
They do not come in all form factors. Compact trucks are missing.
> If manufactures killed of the truck you want, it's because they apparently can't find 1,999 other people to buy that trim.
If that were true, Ford wouldn't have stopped selling the Ranger in the US. They stopped making them in December 2011.
Yearly sales [2] were
2005 120,958
2006 92,420
2007 72,711
2008 65,872
2009 55,600
2010 55,364
2011 70,832
2012 23,848
Canadian sales were about 20k a year, with 2011 and 2012 combining to hit 20k-ish. [2]
If it's not sales, and it's not competition (because all of the competition stopped servicing this market, too), it's because CAFE forced us to buy bigger or older trucks.
[1] https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/ford/ranger#year-sale...
[2] https://carfigures.com/canada-market-brand/ford/ranger#year-...
The Maverick is a compact truck. It's slightly shorter and somewhat wider than the Ranger.
It's specifically only the 2-seat compact truck form factor that's missing.
Substitute "car" for "truck" in that statement, and you have exactly the justification Ford and GM had for not building the first minivans in the late '70s.
Ford even had all the detailed market research that said you could move ~700K units of such a vehicle per year; but disbelieved it, "b/c if that were truly the case, GM would've made those already."
Hal Sperlich took that information with him to Chrysler after Henry Ford II fired him, and the first thing he did at Chrysler was to convince John Riccardo to develop the K-car, which provided the parts Sperlich would need for the minivan a few years later. Despite the staggering profits generated by the first minivans, it took GM another six years, and Ford another ten to begin selling a competitive product.
Point is, don't assume every addressable profitable niche is actually being addressed.
I think that the amount a small truck was valued by American consumers, including business consumers, is vastly overstated.
The reality is that most American businesses don't see any downside to the large size of the F-150. To them, a parking space is a parking space. The fact that you had parking restrictions probably makes you something of an outlier in the US market.
The single-row seating for whatever reason is particularly unpopular. I suspect that more people really want to be able to fit more than 3 people in the truck, and the additional benefit of the crew cab is locked interior storage.
Anyone else who needs a long bed can also buy a van, and in my area I see way more businesses with work vans than with pickup trucks. If you put your stuff in a pickup truck it can't be locked and secured, and it's exposed to the elements. That's a no-go if you're an electrician, plumber, HVAC technician, etc.
I'm not sure what you mean when you say that work vans aren't being sold right now:
Ford Transit
Mercedes-Benz Sprinter
Chevy Express/GMC Savana
RAM ProMaster
Certainly the smaller work vans like the Transit Connect and Nissan NV200 are no longer with us, and that's unfortunate.
It might actually be, but I always assumed it was carbon emissions.
But rolling back or adding exemptions for small trucks is political suicide despite the clear environmental benefits.