> 10 engineers can make a billion dollar company

Not really. It's possible they could, but in practice they cannot. Creating a billion dollar company requires a good idea, good timing, and a lot of luck, the engineers are the least important part.

I don’t see anything in your argument that supports your thesis tbh, if anything, it supports the opposite

More than that it takes things like the right social connections, strong marketing, insight into customer demand, infrastructure spend, etc. You can't normally just convert engineering effort into profit in the way implied.

I don't think one Claude can replace ten engineers of the caliber it takes to build a billion dollar company.

I also don't think that every set of ten engineers of that level builds a billion dollar company every time.

There is also a limit to the number of billion dollar companies that can be built before being a "billion dollar company" no longer means much (see: Zimbabwe).

That assumes a world where nobody else has AI.

There's a night and day difference between:

1. One party has ASI and everybody else has nothing but their human brains.

2. One party has ASI and everybody else has high-level AI but not quite ASI.

Most science fiction assumes world 1, because it's a better narrative. However, we actually live in world 2.

> 10 engineers can make a billion dollar company.

this wont be possible by the time its possible. there would be massive deflation. why would i care about 10 engineeers prompts when i can prompt it myself

There's literally no indication that this is the case, or will ever be. Unless you're a completely naive person who's impressed with all output of an LLM because you don't know what you're talking about. These models aren't impressive, and the people who think they are impressive are even less impressive.

The is a large middle ground between "aren't impressive" and "Claude can spit out billion dollar companies on demand".

A dog talking is impressive but you can't build a SaaS around it as if it's a genius.

The dog's words aren't the impressive part here

Damn, now if only I could find 10 engineers!

A billion bucks, here I come!

One guy with a shovel can dig up a diamond!

10 engineers build a billion dollar company and immediately realise they need 1000 people to run it. Getting 1000 Claude licenses will still be expensive, let alone maintaining those swarms of agents.