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Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by kortilla on Tuesday February 04, 2025 @09:06PM (#42942637)
That’s not lottery mentality and thinking that it’s equivalent is why Europe isn’t innovating.

If someone wins the lottery and gets rich, society isn’t better off. If someone starts a new company that made a cure for some disease and gets rich, society is much better off.

You absolutely want to attract people that want to make huge breakthroughs with unlikely odds of success.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by 77pt77 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:38AM (#42944289)
> If someone starts a new company that made a cure for some disease and gets rich, society is much better off.

The reality is that you get crap like Facebook, Instagram, Xwitter.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by baq on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:16AM (#42945011)
You get both, Facebook’s job is to be known about, so you know about it. There’s a ton of companies doing drug research basically silently… in the US. Most fail, it doesn’t matter as long as a few succeed.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by cycomanic on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:07AM (#42945948)
It's worth pointing out that the biggest innovations (both scientifically, but likely also monetary) in the biomedical field in the last years happened in Europe not the US. So that seems to disprove the point that innovation happens in the US because of the chance of going from 100k to 100M.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by 77pt77 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:54PM (#42957124)
Please tell me what those pharmaceutical companies with a similar maker cap to Facebook Are.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by BrenBarn on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:51AM (#42944380)
> You absolutely want to attract people that want to make huge breakthroughs with unlikely odds of success.

It's fine to want that and to attract those kind of people. What you don't want is to attract people who want to do that in order to make a lot of money.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by baq on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:13AM (#42944995)
I used to think that too, but realized it’s very naive later in life. At some point people are good at what they do, but get tired, start a family, want to settle down. Money helps quite a bit to have those folks motivated.

If you want innovators, motivate them with rewards. Money is a great reward since you can turn it into mostly anything you’d like. Want to buy a mansion? Fine. Want to travel around the world? Feel free. Want to give it away to charity? Great!

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by BrenBarn on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:56AM (#42945859)
Maybe I should have been more explicit. There's a difference between "money" and "a lot of money". People are in this thread talking about the likelihood of getting $100 million. If someone does a thing because they want to start a family and settle down, great. You don't need $100 million to do that. You don't even need $10 million. What I'm saying is you don't want to attract people who are aiming at making vastly more than what is needed to handle the "settle down and live a comfortable life" situation that you described. But right now our society does incentivize and glamorize that, and I think we're worse off for it.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by kortilla on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:55AM (#42947261)
You absolutely need $10 million if you want to retire to any city in the US.

It’s absolutely mind blowing to me that people like you can sit there and go, “no, you shouldn’t be able to retire in NYC for saving a few hundred thousand lives because the thought of you getting $10 million is icky to me.”

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by gambiting on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:13PM (#42951758)
>>You absolutely need $10 million if you want to retire to any city in the US.

And...people accept that as a natural state of being? New York has over 8M residents, do all of them have $10M saved for retirement?

Or is your idea of retirement completely out of sync with what retirement really is for most people?

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by avmich on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:21PM (#42952851)
You surely want to retire comfortably. You want to do what you want - and spend money along, not some arbitrary amounts but just without thinking too much.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by gambiting on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:46PM (#42953214)
$10M sounds very much like an arbitrary amount for a very extravagant retired lifestyle.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by avmich on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:10PM (#42953533)
My numbers are like this:

    $10M over 50 years - $200k/yr or $16k/mo
    House in a rather expensive place - $5k/mo
    Food, travel, other things and especially projects can eat the rest $11k/mo
Which number is wildly off?
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by gambiting on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:17PM (#42954509)
The 50 years is wildly off. Even taking the average male/female lifespan most people don't enjoy more than 20 years of retirement. And sadly in my family I think the average is much closer to 10 years.

If you mean the lucky few of us who can "retire" at 30-40 and enjoy 50 years of retirement - that's such a statistical anomaly that it might as well not exist.

>>Food, travel, other things and especially projects can eat the rest $11k/mo

And also yeah, that is wildly wildly off. Again, if you want to have such an absolutely extravagant lifestyle to spend $11k a month on food and travel then sure - you probably do need $10M. But it's nonsense to say "you need $10M to retire in a big city". Clearly millions of people don't.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by BrenBarn on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:34PM (#42953871)
Well, for starters I don't think most people's retirement lasts 50 years. Even if you retire fairly early at, say, 50, that's taking you to 100 years old.

Also, your numbers assume you earn nothing in retirement, which is unnecessarily pessimistic.

Also, $11k a month for "food travel and other things" seems like quite a lot to me. I mean sure someone can spend $11k a month on "projects" but that doesn't mean that's something we as a society necessarily need to support.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by avmich on Sunday February 09, 2025 @10:19AM (#42991172)
50 at least is not "wildly" off. Somebody could retire at 50, at it would be strange to have money run out by 100 - what if the person would live longer?

We can have something earned from the money, but pension money have to be conservative, so the upside could be limited.

$11k a month for "food travel and other things" - healthy food isn't unfortunately cheap, neither is good travel - but those other things could be even more expensive. You might want to start an enterprise, and you'll need seed money. You might support a cause, or run a non-profit, or do other things which are noble but not easily rewarding in monetary sense.

Yes, we as a society probably can't - not don't need, but can't currently - support this. But it doesn't mean people shouldn't aim for this.

Frankly, I don't see strong evidence against so far.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by gambiting on Sunday February 09, 2025 @05:17PM (#42994627)
>>50 at least is not "wildly" off. Somebody could retire at 50, at it would be strange to have money run out by 100

Who retires at 50? But even ignoring that, I had to check the numbers - in the UK at least, only 0.02% of people live to 100, the chances are "wildly" against all of us in that regard. Sure it might happen - I wouldn't plan for it.

>>$11k a month for "food travel and other things" - healthy food isn't unfortunately cheap, neither is good travel - but those other things could be even more expensive. You might want to start an enterprise, and you'll need seed money. You might support a cause, or run a non-profit, or do other things which are noble but not easily rewarding in monetary sense.

Your assertion was that you need 10M to retire in a big city, the need part is what I'm challenging. If you want to lead a rockefeller lifestyle in retirement - sure. But that won't apply to 99.9999% of population who just want to live out their life in peace and comfort. Let me put it this way - I don't know anyone who makes $11k/month in their regular working life, the idea that you'd have that during retirement is almost....absurd? Who outside of rich elites has "seed money" during retirement? I think we're thinking of completely different social groups.

So no, unless you're part of the 0.00001% you don't need 10M to retire in a big city.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by bad_haircut72 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:03PM (#42954308)
If the goal is financial security to the extent that you could not work (if you still need to work you're not really secure since you could lose that job) then I think you actually would need about $10M. By the time you buy a house, pay for your kids school (elementary through college) and medical insurance for the rest of your life theres not a lot of change left. That to me has always been the goal, I've never truly felt financially secure my entire life and even on a good tech salary I still dont cause I'm one layoff in a bad market away from being in a pretty dire situation, with a family to support too.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by lxgr on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:59PM (#42955856)
> I've never truly felt financially secure my entire life and even on a good tech salary I still dont cause I'm one layoff in a bad market away from being in a pretty dire situation, with a family to support too.

That's a very good point: You really do need a lot of money in the US to feel reasonably secure for the long term. This might be good for employers, entrepreneurs, investors etc., but since most people in society aren't that, I'd argue that the average quality of life is worse for it.

> If the goal is financial security to the extent that you could not work

This actually seems like an anti-goal to me, societally. Why would we want to disincentivize the people that arguably have the best track record of contributing to progress from continuing to do so?

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by bad_haircut72 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:57PM (#42957610)
If you are trying to say that society forces us to feel insecure in order to drive us to never stop working then yeah I agree and it sucks - doubly so because it may even be true that if we all felt financially secure, society would grind to a halt.

Crabs in a bucket.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by BrenBarn on Thursday February 06, 2025 @12:17AM (#42959336)
There's certainly some truth in what you say. I see it as a societal problem that the only way to ensure you don't wind up with less than $X to live on per year is to amass some large multiple of $X. What would be better is a more robust social safety net program that ensure if that one layoff happens and you're out of work, your situation isn't that dire. Like maybe you tighten your belt a bit and maybe if you had stretched for a big house you have to move to a smaller one, but you don't wind up on the street. And in exchange for knowing that we will never wind up on the street, everyone accepts that no one will ever get to own a $100 million mansion or a superyacht or a company worth $100 billion. It seems like a fine trade to me.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by InitialLastName on Thursday February 06, 2025 @11:29AM (#42963978)
$10M invested nets you (comfortably) $400K/year forever.

From that:

- 60k for capital gains tax

- 100k for (exorbitant) education for children

- 40k for healthcare (the most expensive plan on my expensive state's marketplace for a family of 4 is $36K).

That leaves $200k for living expenses. If you can't find a place to live comfortably (anywhere, since you aren't restricted by work) on $200k/year, we have very different expectations from life.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by matwood on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:29AM (#42945125)
Until we fundamentally change how the world works, wanting to make a lot of money is no better or worse than any other reason to innovate.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by Juliate on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:09AM (#42944963)
Yeah but you don’t spend 10s of years of your life studying if your primary goal is just « more money ». The incentive is waaay too far.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by hoseja on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:03AM (#42945446)
What you really, really, REALLY REALLY don't want is to attract people who want to do it for free. Money is at least honest.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by forgotoldacc on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:43AM (#42946214)
Once you get past a few million, you quickly get into "can't possibly spend this money in several lifetimes" territory. And wealth divides like that come at the cost of massive societal wealth divides.

The US sustains that high number of people who strike $100 million+ through having a social safety net that barely exists, which results in far more people being seen as completely disposable. It also comes at the cost of worsening public education, worsening public health, crime rates beyond most first world countries, companies that constantly invent new evils like making all formerly paid-and-done services into monthly subscriptions. Few if any that hit 100 million are doing it ethically. They're doing it by milking the residents dry.

Some countries have national pride and resent the idea of stepping on their fellow countrymen. Some would kill half of them if they were promised a few % off their yearly taxes.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by kortilla on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:52AM (#42947237)
> Once you get past a few million, you quickly get into "can't possibly spend this money in several lifetimes" territory.

This is incorrect and you’re really out of touch for suggesting it.

Let’s say you have a 5 million dollar exit in the Bay Area. After tax you get roughly 2.5. That’s enough to buy a nice but modest house and now you have no money left. You now have to work a full time job to pay the property taxes, the rest of your living expenses, and try to save for retirement. Same thing applies in LA, NYC, SEA, etc.

> The US sustains that high number of people who strike $100 million+ through having a social safety net that barely exists

This is false. The US spends more on healthcare than any other nation, it just goes to a bloated system. More tax money from the 0.1% won’t change that.

> crime rates beyond most first world countries

Gonna need a citation there. This is likely a result of guns being legal if you’re talking about gun deaths or a result of the war on drugs if you’re talking about incarceration. Neither of those have anything to do with taxes.

> companies that constantly invent new evils like making all formerly paid-and-done services into monthly subscriptions

We’re talking about biotech exits. Drop your “muh capitalism bad” gish gallop.

> Few if any that hit 100 million are doing it ethically. They're doing it by milking the residents dry.

Pure cope. A broad unsubstantiated statement about ethics followed by talk of milking residents dry when those residents have more disposable income per capita than nearly anywhere else in the world.

> Some countries have national pride and resent the idea of stepping on their fellow countrymen.

If they do this by treating huge breakthroughs like you are doing, they are stepping on all of their fellow countrymen through oppressive tall poppy syndrome. Knocking anyone doing well down is not how you lift everyone up.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by amelius on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:42AM (#42947693)
> Let’s say you have a 5 million dollar exit in the Bay Area. After tax you get roughly 2.5. That’s enough to buy a nice but modest house and now you have no money left. You now have to work a full time job to pay the property taxes, the rest of your living expenses, and try to save for retirement. Same thing applies in LA, NYC, SEA, etc.

So what you are saying is that ONLY if you work your brains out AND win the "lottery", then you can have a decent retirement in the US?

Maybe Europeans are just too smart to accept that kind of proposition.

The "American dream" is a lottery system used to lure people into doing hard work and consequently rewarding only a few.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by dang on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:15PM (#42951778)
You broke the site guidelines badly and repeatedly in this post, as well as in others in this thread (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42947261). If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.

That's doubly important if your points are good, since by posting like you did here, you discredit them.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by axus on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @12:58PM (#42952486)
It takes many billions to buy a Twitter, even when Saudi Arabia is footing most of the bill.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by palmotea on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @03:05PM (#42954338)
>> Once you get past a few million, you quickly get into "can't possibly spend this money in several lifetimes" territory. And wealth divides like that come at the cost of massive societal wealth divides.

> It takes many billions to buy a Twitter, even when Saudi Arabia is footing most of the bill.

There's some nice article out there that clearly explains how money "changes" at different income levels. First it's security, then it's comfort, then it's power.

Buying Twitter isn't spending money, it's exercising power.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by amelius on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @05:20AM (#42946498)
You are assuming that only money will make people do incredible things, but you only have to look at open source to know that this is false.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by kortilla on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @07:17AM (#42947450)
No I’m not. But it is what motivates people at a large scale.

There are very few open source contributors that are actually really good. The nature of software means that their labor of love can scale very well.

Additionally, there is nearly zero barrier to being an open source developer. Buy a laptop and start writing code.

So open source only works well because when you get lucky and get a combination of a motivated contributor and essentially zero distribution cost, a single group can ship to billions of people.

If we want someone making an artificial heart, it’s a completely different story. The research and development is very capital intensive so you need a war chest to even start tinkering. Then once you have something you want to try to get approved, you need either to be a medical doctor or employ one, which is a huge opportunity cost for a medical school debt ridden doctor.

All of the capital needed to fund this is high risk so it needs a high upside return if private investors are involved.

Now a founder could eschew all of their equity, but after going through all of the work to do this capital raising it would be quite unusual.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by cvwright on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:15PM (#42953607)
Almost all of the really high quality open source projects got that way because companies paid devs good money to work on them.
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by mvieira38 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @02:31PM (#42953833)
We can't ignore the influence of money even on open source, though. How many people are contributing in an anonymous manner, so they can't claim financial benefits from publicity and networking? How many open source projects are rejecting VC funding?
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by fuzzfactor on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:18AM (#42946947)
>If someone wins the lottery and gets rich, society isn’t better off.

Actually, society is much better off since the money is dispersed into the economy faster and to a much greater degree than most other windfalls.

And most other windfalls are crafted to accumulate money from the economy, so the difference in who ends up with the money is another major factor.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by kortilla on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @06:58AM (#42947286)
No, it’s not better off. The lottery is paid for by poor idiots. All of the money going into those tickets would have been in circulation.

I also don’t think you understand wealth creation. A lottery is zero sum. A biotech company that makes $1 billion saving a couple hundred thousand people from early deaths allowing them to contribute to society is wealth generating.

Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by zelon88 on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @01:37PM (#42953064)
$1bn / 200k people is $5k each. For a drug that probably costs $4. When you mark up the cost of saving a life by 1,200% I don't think you get to call that "wealth creation" or "saving lives" or even "preventing death". That's called "extortion."
Re:What's Happening Inside the NIH and NSF by lxgr on Wednesday February 05, 2025 @04:52PM (#42955767)
Why wouldn't you rather want to attract people with much higher odds of a reasonable quality of life regardless of whether they personally hit the jackpot?

In terms of expected value (which you'd hope that scientists and entrepreneurs understand at least at a surface level), that seems like the rational move.