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Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @01:42AM (#42849546)
> If training and inference just got 40x more efficient

Did training and inference just get 40x more efficient, or just training? They trained a model with impressive outputs on a limited number of GPUs, but DeepSeek is still a big model that requires a lot of resources to run. Moreover, which costs more, training a model once or using it for inference across a hundred million people multiple times a day for a year? It was always the second one, and doing the training cheaper makes it even more so.

But this implies that we could use those same resources to train even bigger models, right? Except that you then have the same problem. You have a bigger model, maybe it's better, but if you've made inference cost linearly more because of the size and the size is now 40x bigger, you now need that much more compute for inference.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyanydeez on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:16AM (#42850364)
I think what got cheaper are models with up to date information.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by hobs on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @09:10AM (#42852462)
You almost never reintegrate new information with training, its by far the most expensive way to do that.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyanydeez on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @01:20PM (#42855877)
...and that got cheaper? Not sure your point.

At some point, the models _have_ to do "continuous integration" to provide the "AGI" that's wanted out of this tech.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by mrtesthah on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @03:39AM (#42850159)
Actually inference got more efficient as well, thanks to the multi-head latent attention algorithm that compresses the key-value cache to drastically reduce memory usage.

https://mlnotes.substack.com/p/the-valleys-going-crazy-how-d...

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:03AM (#42850296)
That's a useful performance improvement but it's incremental progress in line with what new models often improve over their predecessors, not in line with the much more dramatic reduction they've achieved in training cost.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by pyentropy on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:10AM (#42850333)
If H800 is a memory-constrained model that NVIDIA built to avoid the Chinese export ban on H100 with equivalent fp8 performance, it makes zero sense to believe Elon Musk, Dario Armodei and Alexandr Wang's claims that DeepSeek smuggled H100s.

I feel like a fraud for telling people that DeepSeek could've smuggled chips once I took a look at the actual DeepSeek optimizations. The only reason why a team would allocate time on memory optimizations and writing NVPTX code rather than becoming much better at posttraining is if they severely struggled with memory during training.

I mean, take a look at the numbers:

https://www.fibermall.com/blog/nvidia-ai-chip.htm#A100_vs_A8...

This is a massive trick pulled by Jensen, take your best chip that's regulated by the government, find which specs are required for the regulations and then make a weaker clone that bypasses one of the specs.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyanydeez on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:18AM (#42850382)
What's surprising is anyone would repeat Elon musk related things.

Tech or politics related, he's off the deep end.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by mnky9800n on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:27AM (#42850460)
Especially since he seems intent on everyone talking about him all the time. I find it questionable when a person wants to be the centre of attention no matter. Perhaps attention is not all we need.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by K0balt on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @09:36AM (#42852770)
Yet another casualty of laypersons browsing arXiv. That paper was like flypaper to his narcissism.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:28AM (#42850471)
The problem is he's only wrong some of the time and then people arguing about which one it is this time generates attention, a valuable commodity.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by numpad0 on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @07:55AM (#42851755)
He's like a broken smart network switch, smart as in managed. Packets with switch MAC on it are all broken, but erroneously forwarded ones often has valuable data. We through L3 don't know which one is which.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by m-s-y on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @07:39AM (#42851647)
Maybe “some” applied in the past but his recent history might best be described as “almost always”.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by Muromec on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @07:52AM (#42851731)
Drugs. Dont do that much drugs for so long.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyanydeez on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @01:19PM (#42855865)
I'm wrong some of the times.

He's a lucky mensch, no more, no less.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by schubart on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @01:49PM (#42856280)
Interesting how people keep calling it “the Chinese export ban”. Isn’t an American export ban?
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyberax on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @02:15AM (#42849704)
> DeepSeek is still a big model that requires a lot of resources to run

I can run the largest model at 4 tokens per second on a 64GB card. Smaller models are _faster_ than Phi-4.

I've just switched to it for my local inference.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by KeplerBoy on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @02:50AM (#42849894)
Isn't the largest model still like 130GB after heavy quantization[1] and 4 tok/s borderline unusable for interactive sessions with those long outputs?

[1] https://unsloth.ai/blog/deepseekr1-dynamic

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by thot_experiment on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @02:57AM (#42849932)
OP probably means "the largest distilled model"
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by menaerus on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @03:36AM (#42850146)
So not an actual DeepSeek-R1 model but a distilled Qwen or Llama model.

From DeepSeek-R1 paper:

> As shown in Table 5, simply distilling DeepSeek-R1’s outputs enables the efficient DeepSeekR1-7B (i.e., DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, abbreviated similarly below) to outperform nonreasoning models like GPT-4o-0513 across the board.

and

> DeepSeek-R1-14B surpasses QwQ-32BPreview on all evaluation metrics, while DeepSeek-R1-32B and DeepSeek-R1-70B significantly exceed o1-mini on most benchmarks.

and

> These [Distilled Model Evaluation] results demonstrate the strong potential of distillation. Additionally, we found that applying RL to these distilled models yields significant further gains. We believe this warrants further exploration and therefore present only the results of the simple SFT-distilled models here.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:38AM (#42850529)
I told it to skip all reasoning and explanations and output just the code. It complied, saving a lot of time)
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by OKRainbowKid on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @09:54AM (#42852984)
Wouldn't that also result in it skipping the "thinking" and thus in worse results?
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by K0balt on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @09:42AM (#42852853)
Yes, but even that can still be run (slowly) on cpu-only systems down to about 32gb. Memory virtualization is a thing. If you get used to using it like email rather than chat, it’s still super useful even if you are waiting 1/2 hour for your reply. Presumably you have a fast distill on tap for interactive stuff.

I run my models in an agentic framework with fast models that can ask slower models or APIs when needed. It works perfectly, 60 percent of the time lol.

Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by manojlds on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @02:57AM (#42849929)
How are you running it, can you be more specific?
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by cyberax on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @01:40PM (#42856148)
DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-70B on triple 4090 cards.
Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff by sghiassy on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @08:21AM (#42851991)
I don’t think that it got more efficient. It’s that smaller models can train via larger ones cheaply. Think teacher/student relationship

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_distillation