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Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rainsford on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:18PM (#42832352)
It was well stated, and I'm glad to see Vanguard explicitly stating the lack of inherent economic value as part of their reasoning. It's actually worse than that, since creating cryptocurrency requires investment of things of real inherent value (capital investment, energy, etc) but only provides a purely speculative asset as an output. Cryptocurrency is basically an economic sink.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by loandbehold on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:28PM (#42832473)
Exactly. Capital investment is a positive sum game. E.g. you build a factory and over its lifetime it produces more than what was the cost to build it. That's the root of economic growth. Bitcoin is a negative sum game. All money that has even been invested into Bitcoin - total cost of mining = all money that investors will ever get back.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by austhrow743 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:18PM (#42834230)
Trade is a positive sum gain and Bitcoin makes it easier.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @08:51PM (#42836492)
Which trade, specifically, is Bitcoin facilitating in practice?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by austhrow743 on Monday January 27, 2025 @12:28AM (#42837729)
Darknet marketplaces.

It's responsible for facilitating a ton of fantastic trips amongst myself and friends.

We had extra money. There were some people on the Netherlands with some extra lsd. We swapped using Bitcoin. Value was created.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Monday January 27, 2025 @12:38AM (#42837773)
I genuinely believe this is a valuable use of cryptocurrencies.

That said, I would wager enormous sums of money that on net, they have been dramatically negative. Once you factor in the vast quantities of energy wasted (even using up energy that would have otherwise gone to waste simply decreases the demand for batteries or competitiveness of other marginal-value uses) and all the funding of crime such as theft, fraud, hitmen, blackmail, money laundering, scams, and so on it’s very hard to see “I was able to get LSD” as compelling.

And I love LSD.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by nout on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @04:22PM (#42858205)
As an example it's much easier and cheaper to send money from a bank account in US into a bank account in another country when you use bitcoin as the rails for this. All of this can be done fully legally, using companies like Strike, Revolut, Relai or similar. If you ever tried doing international wire or even using Wise, you will definitely appreciate bitcoin.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rjmunro on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:46PM (#42832679)
> All money that has even been invested into Bitcoin + total cost of mining = all money that investors will ever get back

Don't you mean "All money that has even been invested into Bitcoin - total cost of mining = all money that investors will ever get back"

Cost of mining has left the system. "Investors" will never get it back.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by thaumasiotes on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:18PM (#42833646)
This identity (with the minus) would be true if the only things you could do with Bitcoins were create them (at some cost) and then later destroy them for some kind of reward.

Since they can be transferred, it's analogous to saying that the amount of value produced by Visa is equal to negative one times Visa's revenue.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by loandbehold on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:37PM (#42833242)
Sorry fixed
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rvnx on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:34PM (#42832555)
They will get the money back, but only if they can manage to keep convincing new people to inject new money.

Which is what they are doing now.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by bqmjjx0kac on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:46PM (#42832672)
Isn't that the definition of a Ponzi scheme?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by est31 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:15PM (#42833002)
Ponzi schemes usually involve promises to get back X times the money after N time. And in terms of actual cash. So whoever runs the Ponzi scheme needs to keep it growing exponentially in order to create exponential payouts. Eventually, it will grow so large that it collapses.

With Blockchains, they are more stable, as there is no such guarantee. Many people choose to HODL instead, and this gives the coin some stability. As long as there is less interest in cashing out than people trying to cash in, the value is growing. And as long as the value is growing, people cash out.

For a Ponzi scheme with guarantees in terms of currencies not minted by the scheme creator, they are bound to collapse sooner or later. Blockchains could go on forever in theory. However, latter still requires more people to cash in than people to cash out. If there is enough people trying to cash out, maybe larger number of people will panic and cash out as well, leading to an avalanche like race to zero.

Both are united by the requirement for a "greater fool", just with Ponzi schemes, this greater fool is exponentially growing while with Blockchains it can grow linearly.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by miohtama on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:28PM (#42833141)
Bitcoin could be more compared to a national currency like Argentinian pesos. The value can go to zero as it is no longer accepted (people do not want it), but there is no inherited promise in the first place it goes up forever.

All it matters that it will stay more stable than other assets. And we know from economic history that assets tied to nations may disappear overnight, e.g. Cyprus.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:06PM (#42833510)
Unlike pesos, or dollars, Bitcoins can't be printed for free.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by oblio on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:50PM (#42833954)
And Bitcoin isn't backed by a country's economic output and their military.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by est31 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @06:24PM (#42835397)
Trump wants to make the Fed, which is supported and defended by the biggest military on this planet, hoard bitcoin. It turns out you can buy politicians with money, and Bitcoin supporters have done just that.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Sunday January 26, 2025 @11:23PM (#42837396)
And that's the beauty of it. It's strong enough by itself so it doesn't need military protection.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:08PM (#42833538)
Strictly speaking a Ponzi scheme involves a single person or entity doing that, consciously. Bitcoin is… an anarchist self-organising Ponzi scheme? :) It has many of the features of a Ponzi scheme, but largely by accident; there is no _intent_.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by zoechi on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:35PM (#42833799)
Depends on how many coins the creator owns and when he sells. The creater starts with a few bits in a chain that suddenly are worth billions. When he sells be gets a big chunk of that in Dollars and the value of the rest collapses to zero for everyone trying to sell later.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:07PM (#42834145)
Yeah, granted, the creator of bitcoin _might_ be, effectively, operating a very complex Ponzi scheme, but it seems unlikely. Occam’s razor says that they were a sincere person or group with unconventional economic theories.

The creators of small memecoins often are doing this, deliberately, of course. Some of them are amazingly open about this, often marketing their memecoins as, essentially, “it’s still early” (ie you, the buyer, get to get in before the scheme collapses; like early Madoff customers, you can be one of the lucky ones!).

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by saalweachter on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:24PM (#42833091)
Eh, crypto is weirder and worse than a Ponzi scheme in a way that deserves its own moniker.

A Ponzi scheme typically involves a small inner circle perpetuating a fraud; even if "everyone knows" it's hinkey, it is ostensibly returning fabulous returns through actual investment/economic activity. Eventually, the insiders stop being able to keep the game going, and go bankrupt, get arrested, flee the country, or some other ignoble end.

Crypto has lost its layer of fraud; it used to be "this thing will be the future of money and therefore have value", but for the last five+ years it's all just been "this will be worth more in the future because people will buy it so you should buy it," a naked Ponzi.

Meanwhile, it is distributed, even if it is highly centralized at every point from mining pools to exchanges. There's no single person who has to go to jail or disappear with his money to collapse the whole system. It's happened dozens of times, and every time it does a new set of criminals steps up to keep the fraud going.

In summary, even if individual enterprises (eg, FTX) are classic Ponzi schemes, crypto as a whole deserves to be the name of its own type of scam.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by wslh on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:11PM (#42833575)
Just thinking out loud, but the problem I see is that even if you define Bitcoin as a scam, it could very well have been created by Satoshi Nakamoto (or the group behind the name) in good faith. The real issue now lies with the responsibility of companies like BlackRock to clearly and transparently identify what they are selling to the public.

It is also different than a casino: "Even if crypto investing is considered gambling, there is a factor not present in traditional casino games: the time variable of holding. Holding roulette chips has no effect on their value, while in crypto markets, prices change in time. By holding crypto assets for a longer duration, investors can potentially benefit from market fluctuations and price appreciation, making it a unique aspect compared to classic gambling games." [1].

[1] https://www.coinfabrik.com/blog/the-science-of-crypto-asset-...

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by southernplaces7 on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @08:00AM (#42851795)
What you say is complete nonsense of the reactionary kind that pervades on this site against crypto, by which at all costs it has to be defined as a scam, against all normal, rational definitions of the word.

If for whatever reason, something my go up in price because there's demand for it despite widely available and mostly correct information about its utility or lack of it, that's not a scam. This is the case with bitcoin. It's growth has fueled interest in a bit of gambling by members of the public about possible future growth. There's no central party running it as something it isn't or perpetuating a core lie by hiding some key information about what bitcoin really is.

People insisting on buying something despite it having an unstable market value and debatable concrete utility doesn't make that thing fraudulent. A scam requires intent and misdirection, regardless of how you and others who share your view try to redefine the word scam arbitrarily. You might as well also call all forms of speculation a scam by the same ridículous logic.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by mistercheph on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:21PM (#42833065)
Thought experiment: what would happen to the price of gold by 2125 AD if nobody born after the year 2025 believed it had value outside of its industrial applications?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:10PM (#42833559)
See my below comment about 16 Psyche, a 140-miles asteroid made of gold floating out there in the sky. By 2125 AD we'll sure find a way to tow it to our shores.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rvnx on Sunday January 26, 2025 @07:07PM (#42835747)
More likely we would send a team of robots there that would do the trip both ways automatically.

Towing such big asteroid sounds very risky (for the stability of our own planet and of the moon) and expensive, way more than just sending robots.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by mistercheph on Sunday January 26, 2025 @08:24PM (#42836309)
16 psyche is not made of gold and this reply has nothing to do with my question, in fact, my point would still stand if confidence in gold as a scarce store of value disappeared without any change in supply and it went to ~0 (industrial value)
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by miohtama on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:21PM (#42833061)
It's a definition of a pension fund.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by throw310822 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:55PM (#42833413)
Or shares: they have a value as long as someone else is willing to buy them. Or just like any other type of transferrable representation of value, including precious metals.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:18PM (#42833651)
Shares have a value beyond that, though; they are a share in an actual company, which has assets and generates revenue (hopefully; granted if you’re buying shares in some SPAC merger that might one day produce a flying car or something, that’s not a million miles away from bitcoin). There is a price floor. One might reasonably argue that nvidia is not worth $3.4 trillion (its current market cap), say, but it is clearly worth _something_, even valued purely on assets and yield. Bitcoin has no floor; you are entirely dependent on other people buying it from you for more than you bought it for, because they believe that someone will one day buy it from _them_ for more than _they_ bought it for.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by hsshhshshjk on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:02PM (#42834080)
As long as you have a real share, and are not holding an "entitlement" (e.g. a brokerage firm holding your shares in their street name. In that case, you have the right to the economic benefits of the stock, but not the underlying. To do that your name needs to be on the company's ledger. Anyone can request to directly register their shares and hold them directly with the company's transfer agent.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:08PM (#42834159)
I mean, unless the broker is fraudulent there’s very little practical difference; most people will go with the broker, as it tends to be cheaper. For that matter, most people aren’t investing in individual shares, they’re investing in some sort of mutual fund, so there’s another party that you have to _somewhat_ trust there.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by joshlemer on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:58PM (#42833444)
If Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme because of this, then literally every asset which has resale value is a ponzi scheme.

When people buy bonds, stocks, commodities, or purchase a car, a house, or even an Xbox, they are taking into account the resale value of that asset. If you supposed that when you're done with your house, it would be worth $0, you would be willing to pay a lot less for it. There's nothing fundamentally different here wrt Bitcoin.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:14PM (#42833602)
A house produces value; you can either rent it out, or live in it (thus avoiding paying rent to someone else). Stocks produce value; the companies make money (and generally either pay dividends, buy back stock, which is just a tax dodge approach to paying dividends, or invest in growth, and will thus eventually be in a position to pay more dividends). Bonds produce value; they are literally loans which (hopefully) get paid back. All of this allows a value to be assigned to them; that value may be greater or less depending on market conditions, demand, future value of money, etc (for instance, if your house is in the middle of nowhere and, by the time you’re done with it, needs a new roof and windows and so on, then its market value may actually approach zero). Things like bitcoin are different in that they do not produce value. You can’t value bitcoin based on X years of expected dividends/quasi-dividends or anything; any value is purely speculative.

To be clear, there’s speculation involved in buying stocks, too, to an extent (particularly buying _individual_ stocks), but ultimately you have a share of some real thing. That is not the case with bitcoin.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by miki123211 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:26PM (#42833724)
What value does gold produce?

Sure, there's some value there, you can use it to make gold-plated contacts or shiny things, but if that was the only use case, it wouldn't be nearly as valuable as it is now.

Gold is valuable because people think it is valuable, and the same hodls true for Bitcoin.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:04PM (#42834108)
Gold is probably the closest conventional thing to bitcoin, yes, though it does have _some_ intrinsic value as an industrial material, which sets a floor. But yes, gold’s value is basically speculative, and you’re largely relying on a greater fool.

You also shouldn’t buy gold; over any long period it is almost guaranteed to massively underperform the markets. If you had bought gold at its 1980s peak, you would have been down in real terms ever since; adjusted for inflation it has never reached that value since, and may never do. While you can say that about some individual _companies_, of course, you would be hard pressed to find a major index for which that is the case.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by joshlemer on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:11PM (#42834184)
The claim that we are disagreeing with is that Bitcoin is meaningfully different from any other investment in a way that makes it a Ponzi Scheme. I'm not trying to persuade anyone that it's a good investment, just that it isn't a ponzi scheme any more than gold, oil, real estate etc is.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:16PM (#42834217)
I don’t think bitcoin is a deliberate Ponzi scheme, but it does have Ponzi scheme-like elements, in particular the absolute dependence on a greater fool to take it off your hands, with value _purely_ being based on what other people imagine it to be worth (ie not backed by any intrinsic value). Gold, yeah, isn’t a million miles away from this, either (as I mentioned previously, historically it is a _bad_ investment) though it does have the benefit of a few millennia of cultural cachet, increasing the chances that there’ll be a greater fool along soon.

Oil and real estate are totally different, though investment in oil in particular _is_ rather speculative; you’re betting on future real demand, but that demand is at least, like, _real_; there are obligate buyers of oil, almost no matter how high the price goes. Real estate, as I previously mentioned, produces value in terms of either rent or not having to pay rent.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by Mr_Minderbinder on Sunday January 26, 2025 @08:08PM (#42836182)
> If you had bought gold at its 1980s peak, you would have been down in real terms ever since; adjusted for inflation it has never reached that value since, and may never do. While you can say that about some individual _companies_, of course, you would be hard pressed to find a major index for which that is the case.

The Nikkei 225 comes to mind. It only broke its 1989 peak last year.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by lanstin on Sunday January 26, 2025 @11:19PM (#42837372)
You really don't want a financial crisis in banking. All those regulations that crypto folks want to get rid of keep things like what happened to Japan in 1990 from happening with more regularity. Even 2008 in the US was painful and very long recovery, and mortgages were a smallish part of the overall economy.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by atq2119 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:05PM (#42833502)
The difference is that Bitcoin only has resale value.

The other examples you mentioned generally have some significant additionally value beyond just resale value -- e.g. stocks pay dividends or are expected to at some point, a house is something you can live in or get an income from by renting it out, and so on.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by npoc on Monday January 27, 2025 @11:21AM (#42842699)
Bitcoin's use is as a store-of-value. That's it's utility. It has the traits of an ideal store of value. Eventually we may use it as money, but that won't happened until it is much closer to it's ultimate value and the value as stabilised enough to use it as a unit of account.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by toss1 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:57PM (#42833431)
You just wrote an excellent description of the Greater Fool Theory. [0,1]

The greater fool theory argues that prices go up because people are able to sell overpriced securities to a "greater fool," whether or not they are overvalued. That is, of course, until there are no greater fools left. [0]

Crypto technology had potential, but those involved never resolved the critical usability and security issues, and just went straight for killing the golden goose — get the money now and nevermind whether it ever becomes anything. Those now pushing for a "US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" are attempting to cash out making the rest of the US taxpayers the last Greater Fools, and leave them holding the steaming bag...

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greaterfooltheory.asp

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by mistercheph on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:21PM (#42833056)
What happens to a store-of-value asset like gold or cash if you can't convince the next generation to trade another store-of-value-asset, hard asset, or labor for it?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by dehrmann on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:48PM (#42833338)
Would you like to buy some tulips?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by Ekaros on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:27PM (#42833736)
I also have some stamps to sell. A real example of collectible that has fallen in value outside few very rare and perfect specimen.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by brazzy on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:40PM (#42833858)
The funny thing is: tulip bulbs were actually a productive asset. You could plant the bulbs to create more of them.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by dehrmann on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:39PM (#42834425)
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @05:11PM (#42834734)
This is precisely why financially literate people hold on to the amount of cash necessary to buy and sell goods, keep some excess in an account that bears interest, and the bulk of the rest goes into productive assets.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by cft on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:48PM (#42832708)
Since we are hypothesizing, here is another hypothesis. Crypto, being non-government controlled, maybe be better than the hypothetic alternative: a government ledger, where the central planners decide which economic activity is "good" and which leads to de-banking, and where decisions are made by government-controlled AI. Then this p2p economic liberty is worth the investment.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:14PM (#42832983)
You’re the only one hypothesizing here. “Crypto isn’t a productive asset and is an energy sink” is a simple and straightforward observation.

But if you’re going to hypothesize things out of thin air, you can give them literally any property you want. That’s hardly interesting.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by mistercheph on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:27PM (#42833128)
Pencil and paper, two questions "What is money?", "How does a money start?", half an hour in a park
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by pjc50 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:08PM (#42832917)
If you think that a public leger on the public internet is somehow not controllable, I have a crypto bridge to sell you.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by verdverm on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:18PM (#42833024)
If they think having everyone's transaction history on the public internet is a good idea, I have a hyper detailed data bridge to sell
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by cft on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:25PM (#42833107)
Public, yes. Interpretable- recent transactions- no. Have you done chain analytics on pay-to-Taproot key-path transactions?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by Spooky23 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:13PM (#42832977)
Crypto is a commodity that is a fraud machine by nature of its trivial transferability. The lack of transfer controls makes it great for a variety of grifts, as demonstrated time and again.

Even without my cynical opinion, Vanguard doesn’t have a heavy commodity focus, and it’s hard to diversify crypto.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by kgwgk on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:27PM (#42834317)
The new people are also investors, will they get their money back?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by cobbal on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:55PM (#42832784)
I really hate to be defending cryptocurrency, but doesn't this same argument apply to banks? They don't produce anything either, they just shift made up numbers around.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by woodruffw on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:01PM (#42832846)
Banks produce economic services: they provide the structure and liquidity needed to convey value through the rest of the economy.

(A typical form of blockchain apologia is that blockchains also do this. This is true only if you ignore the social and regulatory structure that allows companies and individuals to treat banks as mostly interchangeable assets.)

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by ninetyninenine on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:31PM (#42833773)
Loans. They control money supply.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by woodruffw on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:54PM (#42833989)
Who is "they"?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by ninetyninenine on Monday January 27, 2025 @10:08PM (#42848465)
Your mom. Jk. The central bank. Chairman of the fed.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by tinco on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:02PM (#42832855)
Banks are service providers. They are the middlemen between entities that have money and entities that need money. They make the deal (a loan/mortgage) and then skim some off the top. There is real economic benefits derived from banks.

There are some real economic benefits to Bitcoin as well, but I don't believe they justify the valuation though that's neither here nor there.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by RippingMadMan on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:48PM (#42833340)
> They make the deal (a loan/mortgage) and then skim some off the top.

Thanks to fractional reserve banking (i.e. institutionalized fraud), they also create new money along the way (i.e. debase the existing currency).

Thus, the amount they're skimming off is even more than one would originally think, since they're charging interest on something they didn't entirely have in the first place (second-order fraud).

That is quite the service being provided. How fortunate we all are!

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by sdvsfqe on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:53PM (#42833983)
> How fortunate we all are!

I think so.

As someone who makes things, they solve a really important chicken-and-egg problem for me.

i.e. Where does the money needed to make a thing come from before you make it so that you can sell it and make money from selling the thing?

I suppose technically I could risk my money, assuming I have some. But I'd much rather risk the bank's, and I understand that they will charge me for that.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by oblio on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:53PM (#42833978)
Creating new money helped propel economies since a long time ago. It has downsides but almost universally countries have agreed that the positives are worth the downsides.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:23PM (#42833688)
A loan, say, _is something_. You loan money to a company, they use it to build a factory, which produces, in the long run, more economic value than the cost of building it (hopefully). They pay you back, with interest. It’s a somewhat abstract something, but it is still something-by-proxy. This is generally not the case for a cryptocurrency (it might be for a lender dealing _in_ cryptocurrency, though, well, historically those usually turn out to be scams of some sort).
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by bluecalm on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:17PM (#42833017)
You can say that banks manage risk of lending and charge for that. Imagine that instead everyone can take a loan from a government without any checks. Soon financial system would collapse as a lot of irresponsible or too optimistic people would take loans for various purposes and those loans wouldn't be paid back. You need an institution that manages it and take the hit of unpaid loans for the system to be stable.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by LVB on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:04PM (#42832880)
As a very specific example, I can go to a bank with my W-2s and credit history and get a mortgage. That’s a complex and valuable decades-long relationship they’re facilitating.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by smoovb on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:44PM (#42833299)
It's not hard to imagine your tokenized income stream and tokenized assets, algorithmically qualifying you for a defi loan with out need for some guy at a physical desk in a physical building. Hence it's also not hard to imagine the economic value you attribute to banks, as value eventually accruing to crypto.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @08:54PM (#42836512)
One important difference here is I don’t have to imagine a mortgage.

Bitcoin proponents always talk about how it has the potential to do x, y, and z. Okay so do it already.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by ttt333 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:11PM (#42832957)
Banks provide a service to the economy of connecting people with more money than needed right now (savings) to people with less money than needed right now (loans). They make money in between when this goes well. So I would contend the shifting of numbers around actually does provide a good to the economy
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by krab on Sunday January 26, 2025 @05:57PM (#42835127)
You're missing the value the Bitcoin network provides in facilitating trade that's illegal or shady.

I don't want to make any moral statement here. I'm just saying that Bitcoin can be positive sum or negative sum. I don't know which is true and I don't know whether it's better or worse for humanity to have a global mechanism for unregulated money transfers. But that's what we have.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by beepbopboopp on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:36PM (#42832572)
It's unpopular but, crypto as it exists looks a lot like sports betting with "prop bets" "Futures bets" and "lines." They basically. found a way to sell sports betting to STEM people.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by hipadev23 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:11PM (#42833571)
If you think crypto is only with STEM you're woefully out of touch. I'd wager the adoption and continued interest in crypto is actually lower among STEM than many other professional circles.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by pavlov on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:43PM (#42832648)
There’s a tremendous market for gambling disguised as something more intellectually and morally palatable.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by nradov on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:08PM (#42832923)
I'm sure there are a new wave of stealth startups furiously working on schemes to turn real estate investing into something closer to casino gambling. I mean there's already speculation in that asset class but the slow rate of actual transactions makes it less like gambling than stocks / options / currency / commodities. (I'm not saying this will be a good thing, just that it seems like the next logical step in enabling gambling on everything.)
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:25PM (#42833712)
I mean, see the last financial crisis. A lot of that was more or less precisely this; activities relating to real estate lending were made more profitable, but riskier (in a way which was poorly understood at the time, though obvious in hindsight).

As a result of that financial crisis, real estate is somewhat heavily regulated in most countries, and exotic financial instruments based on real estate (which you’d need to make this work) are treated with suspicion. Probably not the most fertile ground for the aspiring scammer.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by Ekaros on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:31PM (#42833771)
If a few stories I read were true. The part of the thing was absolutely certainly going to blow up sooner than later. Certain loans were economically impossible.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by nradov on Sunday January 26, 2025 @04:42PM (#42834443)
That was something a little different. Degenerate gamblers don't want to wait months or years to see if their bets hit. If someone is going to turn real estate into outright gambling then they'll have to find a way to accelerate the cycle time.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:21PM (#42833062)
And there’s a lot of people to prey on who don’t understand the difference between day trading and investing.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by dehrmann on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:50PM (#42833358)
STEM people might have been early adopters for crypto as a currency, but are they really the main people speculating, these days?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by conradev on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:28PM (#42833146)
Gold is an economic sink, too. It is primarily used to preserve capital, even though it has unique atomic properties. Mining gold also takes real inherent value.

Gold as a store of capital isn’t accessible to a lot of people, though, because it is easy to steal and thus hard to store. So instead, I can buy a gold ETF.

It does make sense that Vanguard doesn’t have a Bitcoin ETF, though: they don’t have a gold ETF either, for the same reason

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by tim333 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:59PM (#42834052)
That's not actually true. The biggest use is for jewellery. (see https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-demand/by-sector) And largely has been for 4000+ years since ancient Egypt.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by erikpukinskis on Sunday January 26, 2025 @05:52PM (#42835072)
Right, so gold has a financial use and a material use.

So, if I were to print bitcoin keys on firewood and sell that, would it become a “good investment” in your mind?

That’s basically what gold is. A commodity with some limited material value, whose price has become completely detached from that value due to its use as a financial instrument.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by lelandfe on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:25PM (#42832440)
Satoshi Nakamoto is actually a Trisolaran alien who came to Earth to hasten climate change and have humanity kill off itself.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by koakuma-chan on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:41PM (#42832626)
Every civilization reaches a point where they invent cryptocurrencies, burn through all their resources mining imaginary coins, and that's why the universe is so quiet.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by antiraza on Sunday January 26, 2025 @01:50PM (#42832725)
The universe is a dark mint.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by oblio on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:53PM (#42833986)
Hey, at least they're not making paper clips.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by ryandvm on Sunday January 26, 2025 @07:48PM (#42836049)
"Crypto is one of the great filters" is a hilarious take.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by mistercheph on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:29PM (#42833151)
How much energy are we spending to try to summon stochastic parrot but world-ending doomsday edition?
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by 1659447091 on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:17PM (#42833639)
Two wrongs does not a right make
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by DennisP on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:08PM (#42832914)
Proof of stake doesn't require that kind of investment. Ethereum for example has a large decentralized set of validators like Bitcoin, but runs on regular computers with the energy usage of a few hundred average American households. It's similar to any other internet protocol.

Economic value is whatever people are willing to pay for, and I do mean "pay for," not "invest in." If you want to use applications on the Ethereum network, you have to pay ETH to do it and the ETH gets burned. As long as people keep doing that, the economic value is demonstrably there. Whether that equates to any other kind of value at this point, I won't try to argue, but for significant periods after proof-of-stake rolled out, ETH has had a P/E comparable to some high-growth stocks. This does not apply to Bitcoin, which doesn't have the burn mechanism or much in the way of applications.

ETH and BTC are the two cryptocurrencies with ETFs available. It's unfortunate that even now, so many investment professionals don't understand their differences.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by cryptoegorophy on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:23PM (#42833082)
What I don’t like about eth is when you think extremes and I mean 10000x supply growth of eth or 99.9999% burn all of these are possible scenarios which is not a good idea. Remember how eth forked to save someone’s crypto? Basically defeating the whole idea of crypto currency. Bitcoin on the other hand - hardcoded, meaning supply can’t change.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by DennisP on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:18PM (#42833642)
ETH's supply growth without the burn maxes out at about 2% annually, in the case of almost the entire supply being staked. That's still less than major fiat currencies. Its current growth rate is less than Bitcoin's.

For the burn to be so extreme, the demand for transaction space would have to be much greater than the space available. Since they're also making large improvements to scaling, with the roadmap going to millions of transactions per second and the hardest parts already done, that also seems unlikely.

As for the infamous fork, that happened in Ethereum's first year and it didn't change the ETH supply. Nothing like it has happened in the nine years since. Bitcoin forked when it was eighteen months old, and that actually did change the Bitcoin supply.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by paulryanrogers on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:00PM (#42833464)
There are several serious forks of BTC. The fact that they haven't overtaken the original entirely doesn't make it a good example
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by akimbostrawman on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:11PM (#42832954)
>but only provides a purely speculative asset as an output

i would expect this kind of technical ignorance from the news or my mom but not "hackernews". there is real value in exchanging value/currency P2P globally relatively quickly and cheap. you know "internet money" people dreamed about decades ago...

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:27PM (#42833136)
Next to nobody is actually using it as a means of exchange because it is poorly suited for that purpose in practice. The only type of commerce for which it’s viable in practice are typically crime or crime-adjacent. There is of course a small market of users for “legitimate” and ethically reasonable purposes, but they are by far in the minority.

The overwhelming majority of users are holding it as an asset. Which it’s also poorly suited for in the long run: it generates nothing in and of itself and requires constant feeding of money and energy to keep it going. The only way to see a return is to trade it to a greater fool.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by Animats on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:26PM (#42833731)
> Next to nobody is actually using it as a means of exchange because it is poorly suited for that purpose in practice. The only type of commerce for which it’s viable in practice are typically crime or crime-adjacent.

Yes. The size of the money-laundering, exchange control evasion, and tax evasion industry was way underestimated.

What surprised me is that after China banned cryptocurrencies in 2021 [1], the price didn't drop.

Outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, almost everything in crypto eventually tanks. The entire NFT market has tanked. Even the big names, such as BAYC, are down. BAYC is down 80% since launch. In memecoin land, "eventually" can be measured in days. Check out TRUMP.

Even Ethereum peaked back in 2021. Bitcoin has had 75% drops. If you bought and held anything other than BTC, you're probably under water now.

Then there are the constant collapses and "rug pulls".[2] US$76 billion total so far.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58678907

[2] https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by akimbostrawman on Monday January 27, 2025 @04:27AM (#42839082)
You and everybody else in the replies talk about BTC specificly while I and OP are about cryptocurrency in general. BTC does indeed suck as a currency.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by epistasis on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:33PM (#42833197)
For Vanguard's customer base, this is quite true though. They have access to easy avenues for exchange in the form of USD and other assets.

There is some value for those without access to stable currencies in their home country, but that use case is absolutely dwarfed by the other use cases out there at the moment. Perhaps this will change if the US goes through an economic collapse due to bad tariffs or something.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by miohtama on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:23PM (#42833086)
Hacker News ceased to be a news site for hackers and founders years ago and is now a generic discussion forum with all sorts of people with all skill levels and from all political spectrums. Hating cryptocurrency is especially popular here.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by rsynnott on Sunday January 26, 2025 @03:28PM (#42833753)
Insofar as cryptocurrency is valuable for this at all, it’s really more stablecoins than bitcoin. And even then the concept predates crypto; notably, there’s the Eurodollar (not to be confused with euros or dollars) which is a stablecoin-like thing which has many of the same applications (though a more limited scope).
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by depingus on Sunday January 26, 2025 @02:33PM (#42833199)
And yet that's not what we have. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptcoin in the world, is far from quick and cheap to exchange...especially during times of volatility. That dream of "internet money" is just a fantasy to lure potential bag holders.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by erikpukinskis on Sunday January 26, 2025 @06:01PM (#42835174)
> Bitcoin, the most popular cryptcoin in the world, is far from quick and cheap to exchange

Compared to what?

Let’s say your goal is to get some wealth out of Tibet into India.

Is it “quick and easy” to do that with dollars? Or Yuan? How about gold bricks? Maybe goats?

I’m not sure what the Chinese authorities at the border would have to say about those things.

With Bitcoin you can memorize a phrase like “witch collapse practice feed shame open despair creek road again ice least” and with that information in your brain you can move any amount of money anywhere your brain can go.

That is one _utility_ of Bitcoin. Just like one _utility_ of a dollar bill is I can put it in a Coke machine.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by depingus on Sunday January 26, 2025 @07:24PM (#42835867)
"Committing crimes is easier with bitcoin," is an interesting argument.
Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by dns_snek on Monday January 27, 2025 @04:45AM (#42839210)
A crime can be just about anything that the current government doesn't like, for any reason.

The first thing that many governments will do when a protest of any kind starts becoming too effective is to make it a crime to participate or support the protest. I think we should all keep this scenario in mind when discussing what the future of our financial system should look like.

It's foolish to gloss over the word "crime" like it only describes human trafficking and international drug trade, especially with everything going on in the US. What was "going to the doctor" yesterday could be "committing a crime" tomorrow.

Re:No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard by stouset on Sunday January 26, 2025 @08:57PM (#42836534)
And in your hypothetical scenario, how did you get that value into Bitcoin to begin with?