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Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by cj on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @03:59AM (#42304259)
If you’re wondering what to take away from this article: the simple take away is that YC has the power to get what it wants, for the companies it wants.

If you happen to be in YC’s good graces, they will reward you in ways described in the article. If you’re not, they won’t take the time.

I was in YC in 2012 (2 yrs after the founder writing this article, and one of the last years PG was directly involved). By that time it was clear that YC had turned into a “spray and pray” accelerator, meaning they started favoring volume of investments over everything else.

When they did that, it also required that they split their attention between more companies, which inevitably meant that the sort of anecdotes described in the article still happen, but only for companies YC likes and believes in post-accelerator. YC definitely discriminates from that perspective- they choose which startups they think have the most promise during any given batch, and they give those founders preferential treatment.

Which is to be expected. How else can you scale an accelerator?

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by michaelt on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:58AM (#42304566)
> How else can you scale an accelerator?

I mean, you could delegate the scaling to the startups you're investing in.

If I'm gambling at the horse races, should I bet $100 on every horse to make my gambling scalable and diversified, because I don't feel I can pick winners with any reliability?

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by brudgers on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @07:06AM (#42305287)
Even on their best day a punter is still a punter. The money in horse racing is in breeding.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fragmede on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @05:06AM (#42304605)
That is the game though. If I bet $100k on each of 10 contestants. That’s $1m total. With odds of 1000:1, a single win pays $100m enough to cover all bets and leave a huge profit.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by geysersam on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @05:10AM (#42304618)
If the horse race has 10 contestants why would the odds be 1000:1?
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by naming_the_user on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @05:38AM (#42304800)
Not everyone is competing.

In the economy as a whole how many people are even business owners? Most people go to work and price take at their job without negotiating, without even moving area, without even studying, etc.

You also have multi-company-monopoly effects for lack of a better term, e.g. if there are 10 competitors that make semiconductors - _everyone_ needs semiconductors, then if you pick the appropriate balance and don't buy in at an overvalued time you can invest in all ten and still make money because there is a net flow of funds into the system from outside of it.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by sebastiennight on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:52AM (#42306682)
Is "oligopoly" the word you were looking for?
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fragmede on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @05:12AM (#42304651)
Because it's an imperfect metaphor for how VC investing works to further enrich the wealthy.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by worksonmymach on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:58AM (#42304567)
I'd love to know who "wins" in a scaled YC vs. the oceanic tide that is the SP500 and it's capital sucking and brain sucking ways. A Google can stop 10000 potential startups simply with RSUs and cap another 10000 by buying them out (which is kinda good for YC but not really... they'd rather own a chunk of a Google).
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by thierrydamiba on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @06:48AM (#42305158)
I think you’re vastly underestimating how hard it is to pick winners and stifle competition.

Using your logic, if it was so easy why didn’t Google stop OpenAI? Meta? Perplexity?

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by dustingetz on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:08AM (#42305680)
because the capital bubble made it suddenly unaffordable - google can afford $X00k to bench talent, but talent will only take that deal for several years at which point they are financially free, bored, and current equity prices are just too outrageously attractive
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by Gud on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @06:52AM (#42305190)
Maybe they killed a hundred similar companies and those three slipped through?
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by high_na_euv on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @07:39AM (#42305505)
Hundreds of Facebooks?

Very unlikely

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by williamstein on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:15AM (#42306983)
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by miltava on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:37AM (#42305882)
I think that maybe we underestimate how hard it is to choose the right companies to “kill” when you’re a competitor. The default mode is to say that they won’t go anywhere because of many factors (they don’t have the resources, the access, the capability, etc). But sometimes they do. And in restrospect it’s obvious, but it’s not by the time you had the chance to stop it. And I think it’s probably good.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by allenjhyang on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:02AM (#42306094)
Also hard to marshal the resources you need internally to "kill" a competitor. Sometimes the way to handicap a startup rival is to build the feature / product yourself, but then the bigtech firm runs into the challenges of moving a large org quickly.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by ethbr1 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:20AM (#42306287)
> why didn’t Google

Because hubris.

One glaring flaw of well-capitalized large tech (perhaps the only one) is thinking they can build something better internally, when they have enough cash to simply buy best of breed off the market.

At times Google understood this: Android 2005, YouTube 2006, Writely/GoogleDocs 2006, DoubleClick 2007, Motorola Mobility 2012, Waze 2013, DeepMind 2014

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by jmknoll on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:05AM (#42306847)
Either thinking they can build something better internally, thinking the new thing doesn't matter, or realizing that it does matter but not having the ability to move fast and commercialize it.

e.g. Microsoft circa 2000 didn't think they could build a better internet. They just thought that the internet didn't really matter that much. Google in 2022 knew that LLMs mattered, and had spent a ton of money, but OpenAI just got a better product to market faster.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by eitally on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @02:13PM (#42310032)
I'd add HTC's mobile phone unit to the list of strategically important Google acquisitions (and prehaps Dropcam, too). Without either of those -- even with all the fits & starts, they'd never have gotten to where they are today, building pretty great hardware with pretty good support and a decent supply chain, and largely with "good" software on top.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by tim333 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:29AM (#42307181)
I think they are both winning. Googling gives "The 2024 Y Combinator (YC) top companies have a combined valuation of $458 billion. In 2023, these companies generated a total revenue of $57.2 billion." Which is not bad starting from basically nothing 20 years ago. I don't think the S&P is doing badly either.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fakedang on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @05:03PM (#42312068)
Plot a graph of the companies against their revenue and profit numbers and you'll end up with 2 massively skewed incline curves. Plot a graph of their companies which are public, and they're mostly trading below their debut.

YC did do the right thing (investing in super early stage startups) at the right time (ZIRP environment), but now with the proliferation of too many startups and applicants, I'm not so certain on how much of a future it has with getting the next best thing. Already seeing quite a few startups that either bootstrapped or raised without YC, while a number of YC companies are stuck in pivot loops.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by worksonmymach on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:13PM (#42313562)
I like this metric. YC doesn't own all of that but that doesn't matter for this exercise. That $458 billion is disjointed. It cannot move as one (when needed) like say Microsoft can. It cannot buy GitHub or OpenAI. But then it wont self distruct either. That is both a plus and minus.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by tim333 on Wednesday December 04, 2024 @09:25AM (#42317690)
Yeah. I think YC's ownership is of the order of 3%.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by JoshTriplett on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:41AM (#42307320)
If you make buyout offers to 10000 startups, how many of those say "no" to those offers? Not everybody is willing to send an "our incredible journey" post to all their users.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by klooney on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:47AM (#42307397)
> A Google can stop 10000 potential startups simply with RSUs

The real killer here is the Bay Area housing market. You need those RSUs to pay for a place to stay.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by foobarian on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:54AM (#42307500)
If the engineers are just middlemen for plumbing that money to property owners, seems like owning property in the Bay Area might be a good idea.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by antaviana on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:40AM (#42308132)
It seems there is the opportunity to disrupt that market, so that tech companies can pay property owners directly, without the middlemen.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by sangnoir on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:32PM (#42308729)
That's not nearly disruptive enough. I'm raising seed rounds for HackerRV - a high end, compact RV rentals for knowledge workers that does away with the need for houses. Starlink comes standard, with additional subscriptions available for showers at aelect locations, and mail delivery addresses. Our previous venture (BackyardBnB) was scuttled by literal NIMBYs.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by llamaimperative on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:32PM (#42308736)
Or they can disrupt the actual middleman, which is the property owners. The land is there regardless of who owns it, it turns out.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by 0_____0 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:26AM (#42307931)
That was the policy intention in the 70s. Prop 13 plus zoning most land area for SFH ensured that boomer property owners could get rich. Back then it wasn't clear just how rich, though.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by mistrial9 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:06AM (#42307656)
older generations did just that. In the Internet boom, people commonly talked about "place being obsolete" and other detached thinking.. perhaps lessening the emphasis on buying real property nearby. Of course, not everyone played by the same rule book. Observe the result.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by worksonmymach on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:06PM (#42313525)
Sure I'd rather have $1m in FAANG shares than SF real estate over 10 years but maybe I am wrong.

Especially as SF real estate relies on NIMBYism that might change whereas FAANG relies on an enormous brain trust, branding and monopolies.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by riku_iki on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @03:15PM (#42310781)
You don't have to live in Bay Area to run startup?..
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by worksonmymach on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:10PM (#42313548)
I think it massive improves your odds of a unicorn. But a regular old business aiming for a humble $10m valuation based on profits, of course not.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by brudgers on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @06:52AM (#42305194)
for companies YC likes and believes in post-accelerator. YC definitely discriminates from that perspective- they choose which startups they think have the most promise during any given batch, and they give those founders preferential treatment.

Based on what I’ve read, this seems backwards, I think YC chooses founders with the most promise and gives their companies preferential treatment because promise is only the ability to do things.

But I could be wrong and probably am.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by djbusby on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @08:04AM (#42305660)
IME the earlier a company is in their lifecycle the more the team matters than the idea. So, choosing founders seems The Right Way
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by nsedlet on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:40AM (#42306533)
I do agree. But the thing I would add though is that at least when I was there (W2012 - we were in the same batch!) YC and PG in particular were vocal about principles they believed in, especially the idea that naive young founders get kicked around in Silicon Valley and ought to be treated fairly. PG talked about this constantly and of course it’s a big theme of his essays. I remember one particular instance where a potential investor was behaving questionably and PG offered to step in and talk to them if they crossed a certain line (which they did not in the end). He was clear about what he concerned acceptable and unacceptable and why. And we were nowhere near the cool end of the batch.

Yes YC acts in its interests but in my experience they live by good principles and that makes all the difference. The Chaos Monkeys anecdote is an example of that. So I don’t agree with the article’s framing that they throw their weight around to simply exercise whatever power they have over others for financial gain.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by danaris on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:43AM (#42306581)
Scaling is not a right, nor a duty, nor an inevitability.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by rqtwteye on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @09:47AM (#42306616)
Why does everything need to scale? Why couldn't they stick to taking a few high quality companies every year? There was enough money to be made that way. Seems the belief is that everything needs to scale until it doesn't work anymore.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by light_triad on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:26AM (#42307936)
The need to scale is inevitable if you consider 2 trends: startups have become mainstream and the internet is orders of magnitude bigger. When YC applications consisted mostly of PG essay readers the chance of success per company was higher. Also some niche ideas can now work because of a more developed communications infrastructure, easy payments, better targeting, etc.

And knowing which companies are high quality is almost impossible at the early stages.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by llamaimperative on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:31PM (#42308722)
Neither of those lead to a need to scale. Those are enabling factors, at best.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fragmede on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:51PM (#42308960)
There needs to be an ROI, YC isn't funding companies out of the goodness of their hearts. So the additional size means they have to bet on Uber and Lyft and Flywheel and every other competitor in that space in order to guarantee a return, because they only win if they bet on every horse. You can't do that if you keep small since the number of entrants got bigger. Hence scaling is necessary for them.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by llamaimperative on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @01:44PM (#42309655)
Sure, but that's not the argument that was being made. This is just generically: VC works by power laws so larger portfolios are generally preferable to smaller ones.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by dasil003 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:12AM (#42306945)
As much as I resonate with your sentiment, it's the incentives that investors have that cause them to behave this way, not an inherent belief in scale at all costs.

Keep in mind, YC is very early stage. Asking them to pick only winners based on an application and short interview process would be a fool's errand. I believe their acceptance rates tend to be around 2%, so it's not like they aren't being selective up front—it just takes time to really get signal on who is executing and finding traction. Startup investment is high risk and justified by the outliers, so they have every incentive to find them early, it only makes sense that they would give more support to their winners as they emerge.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by itsoktocry on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:21AM (#42307839)
>Why couldn't they stick to taking a few high quality companies every year?

Because they don't actually have the ability to pick high-quality companies.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by theptip on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:06AM (#42307664)
As the article states, YC’s key asset is their deal flow. You simply don’t get that if you only write 1% of the best seed checks.

If you don’t eat the pie, someone else will. If someone else eats more pie than you, they will be stronger than you and eat your pie.

Switching analogies, unless you have a defensible niche with a wide moat, your position of power is an unstable equilibrium; in the open market only a monopoly is a stable attractor state.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by uoaei on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:05AM (#42306851)
So you're saying the "Peter principle" extends beyond tech employee performance and to tech company funding.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by zeroonetwothree on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:34AM (#42308057)
If the Peter principle is just “you succeed until you don’t” then it’s tautological and applies in all contexts.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fsckboy on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @01:14PM (#42309267)
no, it's not the Peter Principle.

The Peter Principle is pointing out that if you keep getting promoted by doing an exceptional job, and you stop getting promoted when you stop, that you have ended up leaving a job you were exceptional at, and landing in a job you are not good at. In a certain sense it's saying "you should be demoted back to your last job that you were exceptional at"; it's not suggesting that, it's suggesting a sort of snarky "this whole system is set up to fail" because it's from a "isn't capitalism grubby" perspective.

None of this flavor is in the general YC scaling case, though you may be able to find it in various places within that.

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by uoaei on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:09PM (#42311475)
I think you'd be hard-pressed to make a case that VC-motivated business scaling does not consistently overinflate the businesses which are artificially propped up by investor cash. There are a bunch of companies, existing and dead, that show the folly of growth-at-high-cost.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by fsckboy on Wednesday December 04, 2024 @11:08PM (#42324870)
that's not the Peter Principle
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by wat10000 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:28PM (#42308684)
To venture capitalists, “enough money” is a nonsense phrase, much in the same way that a typical computer enthusiast would see the phrase “enough RAM.”
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by tfehring on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @01:40PM (#42309607)
It wouldn’t have to scale, but I’m glad that it did. It’s likely that there’s been somewhat more innovation and economic growth in the world over the last ~decade than there would have been if YC stayed smaller.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by will-burner on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @03:00PM (#42310613)
Capitalism baby, you always need to grow to increase share holder value.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by conductr on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @10:18AM (#42307019)
I think they do this for any portfolio company and nothing is special about AdGrok here, if that’s what you imply with “good graces”. It’s a total power flex move that keeps the valley in check. If they allow this to take place they will have all their portfolio companies consumed in legal disputes in no time. They went after both the company and the VCs to send a message that this behavior won’t be tolerated. Word like this spreads.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by shombaboor on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @11:22AM (#42307848)
I always wonder how it feels to be in one of the companies who compete against each other in the same domain. I think they funded 3 AI code editors as once, how do you know the others aren't getting preferential help
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by OceanBreeze77 on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:08PM (#42308464)
agreed, this is not too controversial; it is the only way to scale. Time is a big investment for such accelerators and as such, diligently choosing which companies to invest time into is their most valuable decision.
Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by glaugh on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @12:40PM (#42308830)
I was in the S12 batch. A couple years later we were demonstrably failing. I emailed the general YC advice line or something similar with a question, and pg responded with a thoughtful comment that was genuinely useful

I don’t think there’s any chance he saw any economic value in us, he took that time because he cared about startups and well-meaning failures like us

It’s a small thing, yes, but I’ve always thought it said a lot about him

Re:Y Combinator and Power in Silicon Valley by cj on Tuesday December 03, 2024 @04:03PM (#42311384)
Agreed. In a similar vein, when our YC company was failing I had a great call with Jessica Livingston, and looking back it was purely moral support and not anything economically motivated.