That is 7.4% growth since 2014.
US population grew by 6.4% during that same period. Hard to see the "huge gain" here.
Yep!
> ports that can easily get you to Asia/Europe/Latin America, consumers,
Yep!
> and labor
Nope. Labor costs in the US are ridiculous and make it non-economical for most consumer manufacturing. This is why real output remains low and we are exploring 'friend-shoring.'
US: >Real median household income was $74,580 in 2022
UK: >In the financial year ending (FYE) 2022, median household income in the UK before taxes and benefits was £35,000, increasing to £38,100 after taxes and benefits.
...
Increased labor costs... versus rapid, $$ last-minute transport / port fees to hide latency across the Pacific.
At some point, it's just cheaper to pay the manufacturer more, if they can more rapidly respond to demand.
Canada and Mexico have multiple entry points without as severe risk.
Looks like an inflation graph to me.
Price cap is poorly enforced. All economic sanctions applied to Russia are poorly enforced thanks to globalization and lack of political will of western countries.
Sanctions are severe on paper, but in real life just adds some extra friction.
Unfortunately we are living in times when there are only weak populists in the government.
I wish the next is president will be someone like Reagan, but it is impossible.
The US can no longer afford to be world police with its navy.
Russia is now outside of the US economic system, while relations with China continue to deteriorate. It will deteriorate further once China attacks Taiwan.
Russia is not really cut off from the global trade.
Africa becomes more united and collected.
Globalization is still a trend.
Russia is cut off from the developed Western economy. Some NATO commanders are also warning that Russia will not stop at Ukraine.
Even if Russia and China weren’t on a war path, the US simply cannot continue to subsidize global defense of trade via our navy. Currently, only the UK and Japan have a sizable fleet of long range ships, but they still don’t compare to the US navy.
Yes, globalism is still here, but the trend is that it will be on a major decline in the coming years. Destabilizing geopolitics will only hasten it.
And yes, they will never stop because they have an empire mentality. Make Russian empire great again! Russian are ready to kill anyone and die for promise to get 2000$ per month from their government.
Some hicks in the rust belt contribute and receive very little benefits from a fee trade empires existence and are thus usually left to there own devices by both parties.
Common misconception that the US controls the world dollar. The Eurodollar has been where the world's trade has been pegged for half a century, the US simply benefits from a massive economy and it being their native currency.
This is like saying the US controls the world through ubiquity of "English" as a business language. No, but they definitely benefit from it. You can choose to speak any other language, or use any other reserve currency that you like.
Some people confuse the "global" trade to the American & Friends trade.
From the other hand, Russians can buy anything western they want, just with more friction and higher price. Even dual-purpose western components for army are freely available for them.
I think if USA would naval blockade itself then many, many people would give a sigh of relief.
Manufacturing hubs are shifting hands, but globalism isn't ending. Companies can still get away with paying $10 a day or less to people in some countries and they're never giving that up.
One thing to keep in mind: a few years ago, South Korea with North Korea to allow corporations to do manufacturing in North Korea. [1] The result: mega corporations like Korea's Hyundai and Japan's Family Mart flooded in to take advantage of cheap (probably even slave) labor. It closed not because companies felt morally wrong about it--it closed because the governments forced it to close.
Near $120 billion spent on new manufacturing facilities in 2022 alone. The surge looks like this:
https://i.imgur.com/Bydq6Hb.png
The US manufacturing sector has added 900,000 jobs since 2014 (according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics). It was at 12,081,000 manufacturing jobs in January 2014, and January 2024 is at 12,979,000. For the US, which is supposed to be a wilting manufacturer, that's a huge gain over a decade (including the pandemic hit, which slashed 700,000 jobs out temporarily; one guesses the figure would just be even higher minus the pandemic).
Manufacturers don't add a million jobs if they're not expanding presence. Even if they were expanding very slowly, they would do everything possible to avoid adding jobs/labor (most US manufacturing expansion in decades past came from productivity gains).
The US has modest corporate taxes, a good business regulatory environment, amazing capital markets, enormous economic scale, a single giant market, ports that can easily get you to Asia/Europe/Latin America, consumers, and labor. It makes perfect sense that at a time of growing risk of conflict with China, that the US would be reshoring.