US-China tensions are not that huge at the moment.

Russia is not really cut off from the global trade.

Africa becomes more united and collected.

Globalization is still a trend.

US China relations continue to deteriorate because of China’s aggression in the South China Sea and continued decoupling aka de-risking.

Russia is cut off from the developed Western economy. Some NATO commanders are also warning that Russia will not stop at Ukraine.

Even if Russia and China weren’t on a war path, the US simply cannot continue to subsidize global defense of trade via our navy. Currently, only the UK and Japan have a sizable fleet of long range ships, but they still don’t compare to the US navy.

Yes, globalism is still here, but the trend is that it will be on a major decline in the coming years. Destabilizing geopolitics will only hasten it.

Russia is cut off only on paper. In real life they do trade very well.

And yes, they will never stop because they have an empire mentality. Make Russian empire great again! Russian are ready to kill anyone and die for promise to get 2000$ per month from their government.

Being able to get supplies from black markets at a high markup isn’t the same as being connected to the markets. Russia also doesn’t want yuan or rupees, and most of their new customers haven’t even paid them yet.

Common misconception but the US does not pay for its navy by itself. That is done by the world using a ever overprinted currency for reserve and trade. The US can print aka lend that money to set a navy to work. The world pays for its police.

Some hicks in the rust belt contribute and receive very little benefits from a fee trade empires existence and are thus usually left to there own devices by both parties.

> Common misconception but the US does not pay for its navy by itself. That is done by the world using a ever overprinted currency for reserve and trade. The US can print aka lend that money to set a navy to work. The world pays for its police.

Common misconception that the US controls the world dollar. The Eurodollar has been where the world's trade has been pegged for half a century, the US simply benefits from a massive economy and it being their native currency.

This is like saying the US controls the world through ubiquity of "English" as a business language. No, but they definitely benefit from it. You can choose to speak any other language, or use any other reserve currency that you like.

> Russia is not really cut off from the global trade.

Some people confuse the "global" trade to the American & Friends trade.

Russia is not even cut off from trade with USA. There are even messages that USA is buying some amount of Russian oil every month.

From the other hand, Russians can buy anything western they want, just with more friction and higher price. Even dual-purpose western components for army are freely available for them.

They are cut off from the American system. The products will leak from both ways unless you impose a strict naval blockade. For some premium, many countries will dodge the sanctions.

> a strict naval blockade

I think if USA would naval blockade itself then many, many people would give a sigh of relief.

Imagine the anti liberal backlash that will come if the first gi dies from forces armed up by neoliberale trading. They will ride the ex-elites out of town on a rail, if they are lucky..