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Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:37AM (#36811843)
This is an extremely important article to read for professionals of all sorts, not just freelancers.

It's an issue that I struggle with nearly daily. I can't convince customers to pay me what I'm worth, because they can't judge my true value. Meanwhile, they'll happily pay Deloitte or Accenture 3x as much as what I charge, and then take the misguided ramblings of a junior-sold-as-senior at face value, not knowing the difference.

> I’ve noticed that in nearly every skill tree I’ve climbed, there comes a point where you begin to notice certain nuances of skill that novices not only don’t notice, but that you cannot articulate using the commonly accepted vocabulary of the skill.

This happened to me just over the last month or so. I was trying to explain to a CTO how horrifically wrong it is to plumb their entire cloud network through just a pair of virtual machines for "security". I just could not make him understand that 5 milliseconds of additional latency in the era where microseconds are an eternity is a disaster for a veritable smorgasbord of upcoming projects. It just. Would. Not. Sink. In.

To some people, "micro" and "milli" sound the same. Latency just doesn't compute as a thing to be concerned about.

I've spent my career performance tuning, but then how do I explain this to people who think a 60-second timeout is a performance problem best solved by buying another million dollars worth of kit?

The article jumps between martial arts and the world of finance, so I'll jump to another example: AI playing games.

When I watched AlphaZero play chess, I was just a tiny bit impressed. I watched it beat the Go grandmaster and I was not very impressed. Then I watched it play Dota 2 -- in which I've sunk several thousand hours -- and holy crap. Wow! It was suddenly terrifying how good it was, because I could judge the nuance of what it was doing.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by marginalia_nu on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:52AM (#36811953)
> To some people, "micro" and "milli" sound the same

To be fair, it almost is. Both units are used to talk about times of about the same size. Using both in the same sentence is like mixing meters and feet. It's much clearer to say e.g. 1500us vs 3us; or 1.5ms vs 0.003ms.

Don't mix units when making a comparison.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by chaxor on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:56AM (#36811975)
In the era of Electron, most things take minutes anyway, so milliseconds is an upgrade.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by maccard on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:19AM (#36812101)
The reason things take minutes is because people ignore order of magnitude diffences when they're insignificant, (it doesn't matter if X takes 10ms instead of 0.1ms), and then over time someone builds on that and makes the same assumption (it doesn't matter if it takes 100ms, when it could take 1ms, followed by it doesn't matter if it takes 10s). Avoiding these order of magnitude differencdz early on is the best way to ensure you don't end up with a SPA that takes 15 seconds to populate a list with 20 items in it.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by Attrecomet on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:57AM (#36811984)
This is beautiful, thank you

Edit: aww, ninja edit takes away all the fun :/

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by marginalia_nu on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:33AM (#36813050)
> Edit: aww, ninja edit takes away all the fun :/

You know I have a degree in theoretical physics so I really should get this stuff right, but before I've had my morning coffee all bets are off :P

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by hef19898 on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:58AM (#36811987)
Well, the difference is the whole point in fields like, e.g., high frequency trading
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by nooby12345 on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:57AM (#36811979)
A factor of 1000 actually
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by marginalia_nu on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:01AM (#36812012)
Hmm, I'm clearly not awake enough to SI. But the point still stands. Don't mix units.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:12AM (#36812072)
The lack of expertise here is confirming the point of the article.

I'm not mixing units.

Milliseconds and microseconds are both measured in units of seconds.

The milli- and micro- prefixes are orders of magnitude. They're scales, not units.

When a scientist starts talking about measurements accurate to attoseconds, I sit up and take notice.

The number in front doesn't make a difference. It's the "atto" that raises my eyebrows.

Back to computing:

I had a debate here with someone who claimed that 128-bit floats are required for some chip layout codes. I questioned that, because a 32-bit number can subdivide the side-length of a chip down to sub-atomic resolution, and a 64-bit float can model the wiggles of the hadrons making up the atomic nuclei!

To some people, 128-bit sounds "twice as good as 64-bit".

To experts, it's... umm... a sign you've made a mistake.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by marginalia_nu on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:17AM (#36812473)
We can absolutely go into a long side-discussion about units and how most imperial units are also clearly just a constant-factor away from SI units and nobody would argue they are the same unit, but I don't think any of that actually matters. It's semantics.

When you are an expert, nearly by definition the average person you're talking to is less well read on the subject than you, the expert. Because of this, it's extremely important to be able to communicate with clarity and patience.

Your expertise doesn't matter if you can't make yourself understood, and it's not reasonable to expect people around you to share your expertise, so you need to adapt the message.

Communication in general is easier the fewer concepts you invoke. In almost all situations it's better to be mostly correct and well understood than to be perfectly correct and not understood at all.

Even if you can expect most people to have an understanding of SI units, far fewer will have an intuition for them (because they aren't working with them daily). Everyone has a basic intuition for big numbers though, so if you want to say "this is bad", show them a big number; the bigger the better.

It can still be correct and make a well founded argument, but presentation matters a lot more than you'd think for convincing someone. In increasing order of likelihood it will convince anyone:

The new solution adds a 15ms latency, whereas our usual requests have a 2us latency.

The new solution adds a 15ms latency, whereas our usual requests have 0.002ms latency.

The new solution is a factor 7.5e3 slower than the existing solution, which has a 2 microsecond latency.

The new solution is 7,500 times slower than the existing solution, which has a 2 microsecond latency.

The new solution is 75,000% slower than the existing solution, which has a 2 microsecond latency.

What is said is basically identical in each version, but the presentation puts an increasing emphasis on just how big a difference this is by literally showing a big number.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jononor on Friday July 21, 2023 @04:38PM (#36819352)
So maybe the term scale is more correct than unit. But more importantly, is the advise useful or not?
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by verve_rat on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:14AM (#36812079)
I whole heartedly disagree. Micrometers and millimetres are very, very different and that should be obvious to anyone that uses grams and kgs, or meters and km everyday. Microseconds and milliseconds are obviously different orders of magnitude, that's sort of the whole point of SI prefixes.

That CTO is just doesn't sound qualified for the job.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by hardware2win on Friday July 21, 2023 @05:55AM (#36811971)
>. I just could not make him understand that 5 milliseconds of additional latency in the era where microseconds are an eternity

Context matters, not everywhere 5ms more makes difference.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by nmcela on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:21AM (#36812118)
As a gamedev, that sentence nearly gave me a heart attack. :)

I get where you are coming from, but the amount of work you can do in 5ms is mindblowing.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by bryanrasmussen on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:07AM (#36812038)
I felt the context was really far down the stack, so services that lots of other services would be depending on was how I read it. The places I want fast, high volume and never failing cause so much depends on a red wheelbarrow.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:14AM (#36812080)
At the core of a data centre, between VMs, it always makes a difference. An enormous one.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ZephyrBlu on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:13AM (#36812073)
It sounds like you were just telling the CTO "this is wrong" instead of offering an alternative solution?

If that's the case it's not surprising it didn't sink in. You're just giving him another problem.

> I've spent my career performance tuning, but then how do I explain this to people who think a 60-second timeout is a performance problem best solved by buying another million dollars worth of kit?

I'm surprised you've spent your career doing this and you still haven't figured out how to get people to listen to you.

Making your work legible to others feels as important as the work itself.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:40AM (#36812222)
For reference, I did offer alternative solutions.

> I'm surprised you've spent your career doing this and you still haven't figured out how to get people to listen to you.

This is the point of the article, which you appear to have missed.

There's a point where it becomes essentially impossible to articulate the differences to the lay person. Or for that matter, someone actually quite skilled, but not a "master".

It's not a lack of skill on the part of the expert, it's the lack of skill on the part of everybody else.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by thesumofall on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:53AM (#36812283)
But is this really the point of the article? The article argues that it is difficult to identify expertise. However, the situation you describe is one where (if I read you correctly) not your expertise was questioned but your recommendation. If there wasn’t any tangible difference between the CTO’s and your suggested course of action on a metric that he as a customer cared about, then maybe his proposal was indeed the better one? And yes, probably he didn’t care about the exact latencies in the system, but he would probably care about customer retention, system availability, etc.?
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:15AM (#36812456)
I'm finding this entire line of discussion incredibly curious because not only does it confirm my original argument and the that of the article, but it hammers the point home.

Everything you've just said is gibberish to a master.

It's like making a straight-faced argument that setting the speed limit to 1 mph on a motorway might make perfect sense, and the traffic engineer is actually at fault for not making it clear that this is nonsense.

I get that you don't see the ridiculousness of 50 microseconds vs 5 milliseconds, but that's the point.

You don't see it, and you start making random arguments untethered from reality.

The fact that you are blind to it, unlike being blind to 1 mph vs 65 mph is the entire point.

You may have driven thousands of hours. You have don't have thousands of hours of network performance tuning expertise.

Both of us wouldn't be able to even begin to understand the complaints Ayrton Senna might make about how the steering is too "crunchy" at the extremes or that the brake strength imbalance is shifting the car about.

There's levels of expertise, and if two people are too far apart, meaningful communication between them becomes impossible.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ryanklee on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:25AM (#36812532)
Really does sound like you have difficulties with communicating your points that do not have to do with external factors, but with your actual skill at communicating. Experts manage to successfully argue fine points to laypersons all the time to non experts in every field. You are coming across as deflective.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by bazooka on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:16AM (#36812923)
He is not deflective. Your comments are rather dense. The orthodoxy of ‘changing frame’ and ‘putting it in a language they understand’ is layman drivel. It is not always possible to do so and it is overwhelmingly untractable if you eskew the fundamental reasons in a discussion with a non-expert that insists on technical justification and just doesn’t take your cookie-cutter time/money/competitive advantage talking points and can’t provide you with specifics that can be quantified.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by yohannesk on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:40AM (#36813105)
What real life project only involves experts on specific field? Are you working on toy problems? Isn't there cost/benefit analysis to everything? If I understand something well, I can explain it to non-experts in understandable way. If I can't, then I probably lack full grasp of the topic
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by yobbo on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:07AM (#36813929)
> I can explain it to non-experts in understandable way

Ok? But you are required to motivate a decision that is based on terms, conditions, probabilities, consequences that can only be encoded at knowledge-level A. When projected down to knowledge-level C, it sounds like "otherwise bad things might happen".

The jargon is not what matters. The logic of the decision is not meaningful or believable without knowledge of the "physics of the system" at level A.

Most people understand nuclear bombs in layman terms, and they understand them intuitively from watching videos and pictures. Without videos and pictures, no one would care.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by kritiko on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:33AM (#36814268)
Nuclear risk is about the reaction to somebody using a nuclear weapon, not the bomb itself being bad.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by gilleain on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:20AM (#36813420)
'Eschew' is probably the word you want instead of 'eskew'.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ryanklee on Friday July 21, 2023 @11:04AM (#36814670)
It's the job of an expert to communicate their understanding of the world in a way that motivates non experts to make the correct the decision. If an expert isn't successful in this, they need to improve their methods of communication. Everything else is an excuse.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:58PM (#36821116)
This presumes that the expert shouldn’t be the one making the decision.

Law firms are run by lawyers. The chief of surgery is a surgeon. Architecture firms are run by architects at the top.

Why is it that in IT it is expected that all management of IT is “non technical” to the point of not understanding what they’re hearing from direct reports!?

Would it be normal in your mind for a chemical plant foreman in charge of the process to not know what atoms are!?

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by yohannesk on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:34AM (#36813053)
If I were to guess, I would say an average 4th grader knows the difference between nano, milli or micro seconds. Understanding the magnitude might not be the problem for the CTO. But why should the CTO care? How does it translate to his business requirements? That's your job to explain, no?
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by barry-cotter on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:23AM (#36814141)
> If I were to guess, I would say an average 4th grader knows the difference between nano, milli or micro seconds.

Have you ever spent any significant time in an environment where most people are not (children of) college graduates? Because this is absurd. The average person who has just finished a year of high school physics probably can’t tell you those.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by uoaei on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:09PM (#36820602)
If I were to guess, your child is attending Palo Alto High School when the next school year begins.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by yohannesk on Saturday July 22, 2023 @04:20AM (#36824445)
I am in Ethiopia. We use the metric system, maybe I am biased
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by rvba on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:32AM (#36813544)
The person who was talking about this optimization should know that they should provide context.

Do they work for a high frequency trading firm? Do they make a CRUD app which has few users and (as much as I hate that) "they can wait even 5 seconds".

If the person does not give context then they dont explain well..

On a side note: for me the problem seems to be not the speed, but the choke point - just 2 servers (with no redudancy?). What one or both go down?

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by digging on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:50AM (#36814485)
> There's levels of expertise, and if two people are too far apart, meaningful communication between them becomes impossible.

You've disproved this yourself earlier in this comment. You made an analogy to explain a concept to a non-expert.

It is entirely on you to make yourself understood to non-experts. It is both possible and extremely important.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by thesumofall on Friday July 21, 2023 @11:47AM (#36815234)
But again: is the CTO really not able to spot the expertise or is the expert so detached that he can’t translate between the worlds anymore? I find it much easier to believe that the CTO fully understands that he has an expert in front of him who knows what he is talking about but doesn’t see the relevance of the recommendation. My doctor might tell me that I should eat more vegetables and I’m fully convinced of the doctor’s expertise, but I might still not follow the advice
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by robocat on Saturday July 22, 2023 @06:12PM (#36830463)
> Everything you've just said is gibberish to a master

That is rather a condescending take: calling yourself a master and calling their words gibberish is hardly thoughtful dialogue. Other parts of your comment are equally bad “ untethered from reality” should not be written. Someone is trying to engage with you and you are dismissing them by using very charged words. Even worse you are demonstrating poor communications skills - that point being questioned elsewhere in the thread. I hope you can learn to listen to others politely even when you disagree, and please try to follow https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html :

  Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ZephyrBlu on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:59AM (#36812327)
I have been familiar with the author and this article for a long time.

> It's not a lack of skill on the part of the expert, it's the lack of skill on the part of everybody else

This is a very poor frame of reference. It's not other people's fault they cannot understand the value you provide, it's your fault.

The thing that tends to bother engineers is that articulating your value (I.e. sales and marketing) is generally orthogonal to your key competencies.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by brookst on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:37AM (#36813075)
I see this so often: engineers who think it’s demeaning to explain deeply technical things in business terms, so they refuse. Like it’s somehow noble to only speak one language.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by mgkimsal on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:25AM (#36813485)
> engineers who think it’s demeaning to explain deeply technical things in business terms, so they refuse

I can, and have, explained 'deeply technical things' in 'business terms'. And people understood. Then made a bad/poor/wrong choice anyway, because... "well... all those things you're saying might happen, they might not. Or... it may not happen for months or years, and we already committed to date X for project Y".

I can tell people the cost of punting on 'deeply technical thing' will be enormous, like... "this will require doubling the dept headcount and stopping all new progress for 6-12 months". Then offer alternatives. Then get summarily ignored, and watch things crash months later, and the dept is then stuck for months scrambling to understand all the problems they could have avoided. The decision maker who decided for extremely short term gain? They're gone (sometimes of their own choosing, sometimes not).

The "risks" can seem wildly out of touch with reality, but many times if you're making poor choices you do hit the "worst case scenario" wall. Colleague has been contracting inside a shop on and off for a few years. He indicated "if we don't do X, we will not be able to do any new feature development for at least 18 months". And... closing in on 4 years later, they've not shipped any substantial new features (some bug fixes, but that's about it).

I've seen this happen once up close, and have seen inside other companies and got the war stories from others.

Does this happen every single time? Of course not. But even if you can confidently and correctly and pleasingly describe deep tech things to business folks in their own language, showing the pros/cons/costs/risks... that doesn't mean they will take your side. Saving face, hitting deadlines at all costs, and other factors weight on decisions, and you can't control that. You can control where and how you work though.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:52PM (#36821054)
My equivalent of this was finding a brand new SAN array had been formatted wrong. It was nearly empty and unused so it would have been a 5-minute job format 99% of it and shuffle the in-use 1% around so that the rest can be fixed too.

Both the storage vendor tech and I vehemently argued for solving this immediately but were told to “do it later”.

I pointed out that “later” would be when it is full and has 10K production users using it 24/7. Hence any reformatting would be a six-month project requiring additional kit for the scratch space needed.

I was wrong. It took 12 months.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by brookst on Saturday July 22, 2023 @12:35AM (#36823300)
Yes? The position is not that being a good communicator guarantees perfect results every time.

The position is that intentionally being a bad communicator guarantees poor results most of the time.

Same way that not driving drunk does not guarantee you won’t get in a wreck.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by Cthulhu_ on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:24AM (#36812519)
It sounds like you cannot convince them based on merit, because they simply do not understand you and the language you speak. It sounds like you need to change tack, convince them you're an expert in $field without using words and prhases from $field; keep your secrets and knowledge, feed them some generic drivel. Maybe hire someone that can help you with your sales pitch.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by brookst on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:25AM (#36813476)
I mean who would be convinced by an “expert” who can’t explain to a non-expert?

Yes, maybe I desperately need to frobulize the macrowublitz to avoid pracknation, but I’ll wait for someone who can explain why it’s a high priority to achieve my goals.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by yard2010 on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:42AM (#36812671)
Did you read the article? This is the point, selling a good service to people that has no idea is inherently hard
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ZephyrBlu on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:00AM (#36812828)
That is very much not the point of the article. The article is very focused on exploring the idea of identifying expertise and only briefly mentions money in the beginning of the piece.

Cedric explicitly directs people to another article which discusses how this idea relates to money: "Bellotti’s observations are worth reading in their entirety, especially if you’re interested in the actionable implications of the idea. But I’d like to take this property of expertise in another direction. Now that we know that expertise is more legible to experts, could we perhaps invert this observation and turn it into a goal by itself? Could you turn this into something that helps you acquire expertise?".

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by dumpsterdiver on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:18AM (#36812100)
If two nearly identical wallets (very minor, but noticeable differences) are placed on a counter and one is significantly more expensive... how would you expect those wallets to sell?

I would expect both of them to sell out. The people looking for a higher quality product will immediately go for the more expensive product, and the remaining wallets would sell to people who just need a wallet.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by joshuaissac on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:44AM (#36812242)
> The people looking for a higher quality product will immediately go for the more expensive product

It is more complicated than that. There is no guarantee that the more expensive wallet is also the higher-quality product. The people looking for a higher-quality product can be classified into those who can measure the quality well (perhaps by observing those minor differences), and those who have to use less effective proxies of quality (like price).

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by detourdog on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:36AM (#36814302)
This day and age we can make our own inflation. We are all free to pay as much or as little for wallet as we would like. So we all shop by price, quality, or availability.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ZephyrBlu on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:21AM (#36812115)
> When I watched AlphaZero play chess, I was just a tiny bit impressed. I watched it beat the Go grandmaster and I was not very impressed. Then I watched it play Dota 2 -- in which I've sunk several thousand hours -- and holy crap. Wow! It was suddenly terrifying how good it was, because I could judge the nuance of what it was doing

Funny, my game of choice is StarCraft 2 and when I watched AlphaStar beat StarCraft 2 pros I was significantly less impressed than when I watched AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol at Go.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:20AM (#36812486)
You should be more impressed knowing that that AlphaStar was handicapped. Its clicking was rate-limited and its inputs were delayed by something like 150 milliseconds to make it "fair" for the humans.

If you remove those limits, it would absolutely wipe the floor with the twitching corpse of any human player.

I saw it play Warcraft 2 without the limiters, and it was just ridiculous. It would dance the units around and keep using them with 1 hp left for many minutes and then heal them back up juuuuust enough to take exactly one hit from an enemy.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ZephyrBlu on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:32AM (#36812587)
The handicapping was very ineffective. AlphaStar had 250-300+ APM and it was basically 100% effective APM. Pros have 300-400+ APM, but their effective APM is much lower due to spam patterns and checking production among other things.

Almost everyone in the community seemed to agree AlphaStar was very unfair. Things like a 3 way surround and performing blink micro on individual Stalkers on opposite sides of the screen are completely inhuman.

This is also what made the Dota 2 bots feel somewhat disappointing. Of course perfect mechanical skill beats humans. Watching the SF mid 1v1 matches illustrated this very clearly to me. The AI chipped the player down with perfect AAs, then finished them off with perfect distance razes.

The bots weren't 100% mechanical skill, but it was a large enough proportion that it was uninteresting.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by whateveracct on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:29AM (#36812564)
But not having human reaction time in a real-time game isn't interesting. And the strategies that arise from that aren't either. If anything, human-level I/O constraints should make the AI more impressive because it's actually playing the same game.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by DharmaPolice on Friday July 21, 2023 @10:11AM (#36813970)
My knowledge of Starcraft 2 is pretty limited so this is my lack of expertise speaking but it always felt like a strange choice to demonstrate AI skill. Even limiting the AI to human level actions per minute - so much of the game seems to about efficient multitasking which obviously computers are good at.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by ianpurton on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:27AM (#36812155)
> Meanwhile, they'll happily pay Deloitte or Accenture 3x as much as what I charge, and then take the misguided ramblings of a junior-sold-as-senior at face value, not knowing the difference.

This is so true.

It's also very difficult to stop as the consultancy gets the project and the client doesn't get to interview the people who actually turn up.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by VoodooJuJu on Friday July 21, 2023 @06:46AM (#36812260)
>I’ve noticed that in nearly every skill tree I’ve climbed, there comes a point where you begin to notice certain nuances of skill that novices not only don’t notice, but that you cannot articulate using the commonly accepted vocabulary of the skill.

I've encountered this, and what works is re-framing it in terms they'll understand. Things that are universally understood are: time, money, and competition.

In this case, the "micro" and "milli" pitch is technical minutiae and is not what I'm referring to when I say "time". These are more effective frames:

>If we do this, it will save/cost us months/years/dollars...

>If we do this, the performance hit will knock out our competitive advantage, which we'll have to make up for it with something else, which will cost time/money...

>This thing is insufficient for our customer's needs, which will cause our customers to seek out competitors, which will cause us to lose money...

>This thing is too complex and will require additional training and is error-prone, which will cost us time and money...

In addition to those, for every decision you refute, recommend a superior alternative, and again, frame it in terms of time and money.

Now, this won't be a one-sided thing, you'll likely get into a conversation, and a lot of "why's" will try to extract that technical minutiae answer from you, which you might want to mention at some point in the exchange, but don't give it up easily, and do not emphasize it. Make sure you continue to emphasize the more convincing frames: time and money.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by giantg2 on Friday July 21, 2023 @07:26AM (#36812538)
"take the misguided ramblings of a junior-sold-as-senior at face value, not knowing the difference"

Based on my experiences, I'm throughly convinced that most of the time the consultants will tell management what they want to hear. If management doesn't like the answer then they go to someone else. How likely it is that they will accept an unwanted opinion from a consultant is solely based on prestige.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by rvba on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:36AM (#36813590)
One thing are presentations, other thing is actuall stuff build by 'juniors sold as seniors'.

Read all the horror stories of shitty software or ERP implementations. Often it is the consultant's fault - since they are technically weak.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by darkerside on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:14AM (#36812911)
Isn't it possible that you may not understand the CTO's priorities? Security is clearly essential to him, and performance is essential to you. I don't doubt there are other ways to satisfy both criteria, but frankly, it just doesn't sound like the CTO cared about those milliseconds.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by jiggawatts on Friday July 21, 2023 @04:24PM (#36819174)
That came up too. The security aspect of the product does less than nothing: not only does it fail to encrypt data end-to-end, it uses public ip addresses for both the control and data plane. Those public endpoints had an unauthenticated RCE vulnerability recently.

It’s a staggeringly bad product and it blew my mind now it was impossible to convince anyone of this.

We used pictures, for crying out loud. We did all the things everyone here has been helpfully suggesting. Talking about business consequences (dire), costs (enormous), risks (massive), etc…

The response was: “the sales guy from the vendor assured me it’s all fine. This is just your opinion.”

The causal chain of a->b->c was just not sinking in.

The CTO he could not judge anyone’s expertise not just mine — he also couldn’t judge the lack of expertise by the vendor and their sales team.

So he chose based on who has the nicer suit, the shiniest smile, etc…

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by xyzelement on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:19AM (#36812949)
// I just could not make him understand that 5 milliseconds of additional latency in the era where microseconds are an eternity is a disaster for a veritable smorgasbord of upcoming projects. It just. Would. Not. Sink. In.

Does this company do something where this latency would be noticeable? Can you give an example of business impact that would result from it?

If you can, why don't you? If you can't, then sounds like it doesn't matter.

The CTO didn't get to be the CTO by optimizing the irrelevant.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by cgeier on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:37AM (#36813073)
Ideally, estimate the business values in local currency (and be able to defend those estimates).
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by xyzelement on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:00AM (#36813248)
I agree that's ideal but probably wouldn't expect a latency optimization expert to understand my business well enough to do that and that's fine. But I -would- expect them to say something on the level of: "this is the kinda latency that will prevent you from ever moving to a cloud desktop" or "at this level of latency, you are going to suffer X second delay every time you interact with a complex web app like Jira" or "you are an HFT firm and I know that your competitors are at about 1% of your latency." Then let your client decide if this is something that matters to them. Quite different than "wow the CTO is too dumb to understand my genius"
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by heyoni on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:47AM (#36813153)
That was my exact reaction too. There’s a reason python and other “slow” languages are dominating. Very few industries require that kind speed, and even fewer require it at the cost of simplifying code or architecture.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by girvo on Friday July 21, 2023 @08:53AM (#36813191)
In my experience the CTO got to be CTO because they’re friends with the CEO, the board, etc, rather than their own technical ability being superior than the seniors/leads under them. And that goes for me too, when I was CTO. It’s a position, it doesn’t have any inherent guarantee of ability to avoid optimising the irrelevant: some will, some won’t.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by thrw4wy-d2 on Friday July 21, 2023 @09:09AM (#36813326)
> Then I watched it play Dota 2 -- in which I've sunk several thousand hours -- and holy crap

Fascinating. I’ve never professionally worked in what it sounds like you do, so I was moderately agreeing with you until this.

I’ve played Dota likely as long as you in addition to playing at a semi pro level (placing well in a couple official pro qualifying tournaments as well as playing pubs with the players the AI played against) and I couldn’t disagree more.

It was impressive, but it’s main advantage came from its inhuman reaction times. They added some buffer but still didn’t account for 5 players working in perfect unison. That kind of coordination is an enormous advantage in a game like Dota. I left roughly feeling like I do now about AI - very impressive, but way over hyped and only sold to people that don’t truly get Dota.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by danielmarkbruce on Friday July 21, 2023 @11:09AM (#36814734)
Branding is real.
Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by msp26 on Friday July 21, 2023 @11:49AM (#36815258)
It's interesting that you bring up Dota because I find that it's a ready example of the vocab point failing. When you listen to pros talk, they misuse words and concepts all the time but it doesn't matter because the other pros listening get the 'feel' of what they're saying.

(I'm not a pro or anything, just high rank, but to use myself as an example) I try to make an effort to use the correct words when explaining things to friends. But even I find myself saying things like 'just look at the [lane] creeps' to explain what I want my laning partner to do and then I realise how unhelpful it is. Because when they see the creeps they don't understand what I see.

Re:Ability to See Expertise Is a Milestone Worth Aiming For by Corrado on Saturday July 22, 2023 @03:41AM (#36824246)
I have a couple of similar experiences. I've spent >1,500 hours playing Team Fortress 2 and can recognize things that other gamer friends just can't see. I'm still not good at TF2, but I can recognize great playing.

Years ago I was active in Tae Kwon Do and achieved black-belt status. One time, during a sparing match with my teacher, I was astounded to be able to spot a hole in his defense. In fact, I was so distracted by my perception that I completely froze and he scored a point. I like to think that my seeing that hole gave me a glimpse into what it might be like to be good at TDK. I still think about that experience to this day.