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Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by user_named on Saturday July 01, 2023 @02:45PM (#36553609)
Reminder that Elon didn't even intend to buy Twitter

He wanted to sell ~$2.5 Billion Tesla stock at all-time highs without causing the stock price to significantly deflate, so he used the Twitter purchase suggestion as a cover. He did similar pump and dump schemes with crypto - like Dogecoin - but because Elon is fundamentally a dumb guy, he did the extraordinarily stupid thing of signing a purchase agreement with Twitter

Elon thought he'd be able to wiggle out of it because he assumed the SEC would be the regulatory body he'd be up against - and to his credit he has made a career out of making the SEC look like spineless chumps - but much to Elon's horror he actually found himself before the almighty Delaware Court of Chancery

So in an effort to slyly make a couple Billion $'s, Elon torched ~$40 Billion of his personal wealth, in what is arguably the biggest bag fumbling in modern history

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by willvarfar on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:35PM (#36554169)
Was reading another thread about LLMs on HN yesterday (yeah, can't find which one, there's always soooo many) about how Elon was 'tricked' into funding the charity OpenAI before it pivoted into for-profit and he got no equity. And now this timely reminder that Elon was 'tricked' into buying Twitter too! Quite a record, and yet he is somehow still the world's richest person? I do enjoy him talking about rockets, though.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by FrankWilhoit on Saturday July 01, 2023 @02:59PM (#36553771)
What are your counterexamples from ancient history?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by ben_w on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:39PM (#36554209)
There's the guy who gave away so much gold he broke half of Africa's economy; the motivation might be different, but I think it counts if the category is "got money badly wrong".
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by PaulDavisThe1st on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:04PM (#36554489)
from wikipedia:

> According to some Arabic writers, Musa's gift-giving caused a depreciation in the value of gold in Egypt. Al-Umari said that before Musa's arrival, a mithqal of gold was worth 25 silver dirhams, but that it dropped to less than 22 dirhams afterward and did not go above that number for at least twelve years.[95] Though this has been described as having "wrecked" Egypt's economy,[83] the historian Warren Schultz has argued that this was well within normal fluctuations in the value of gold in Mamluk Egypt.[96]

Seems like this might a misleading folk tale.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by kibwen on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:47PM (#36554289)
How about the time that Scotland got envious of all the other European powers doing colonialism in the New World, so they dumped all their wealth into setting up a colony in the Darien gap, which failed so horribly that it bankrupted the country and forced them to unite with England.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by kuchenbecker on Saturday July 01, 2023 @02:55PM (#36553733)
Most of the money was loaned, and the debt is now Twitters and not his.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by minimaxir on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:02PM (#36553798)
Elon rolled Twitter into X Corp, which would mean the debt is entangled with his other assets and may make things messy in the inevitable lender lawsuits.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by fundad on Sunday July 02, 2023 @02:53PM (#36564465)
That means he can spin off all of X’s debt together with Twitter whenever he wants.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by SamReidHughes on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:22PM (#36554022)
You're making stuff up.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by dspillett on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:33PM (#36554132)
Care to be more specific about the inaccurate parts and/or provide counterpoints (preferably with appropriate counter-evidence)?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by parthdesai on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:38PM (#36554198)
“Elon is fundamentally a dumb guy”

This is the guy who’s had more than a few successful businesses now. A lot of smart people did want to work with him. Andrej Karpathy himself has said that Elon was very quick to pick up AI technically. That doesn’t sound like a “fundamentally dumb” guy to me

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by pinkcan on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:49PM (#36554319)
a lot of smart people fell for Elizabeth Holmes charm and put their money on Theranos

for the purpose of this thread saying “Elon is fundamentally a dumb guy” is a statement of opinion, one that a growing number of people agree with

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by SamReidHughes on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:54PM (#36554368)
It's not a statement of opinion, it's a bitter resentful raving.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by pinkcan on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:08PM (#36554556)
okay
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by parthdesai on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:46PM (#36555007)
I tend to fall in the camp that a “fundamentally dumb guy” won’t be able to successfully start, grow and run Tesla and Space X.

Was buying twitter a mistake? Sure. Did he make dumb decisions when it comes to twitter? Yes. But IMO, that’s very different than labelling someone “fundamentally dumb”

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by halostatue on Saturday July 01, 2023 @08:15PM (#36556760)
Musk did not found Tesla.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by pinkcan on Sunday July 02, 2023 @01:48AM (#36558599)
this.

seems a lot of people confound funding and founding, he was one of Tesla's early funders, but he was not part of the team that founded it.

> he sank an initial investment of more than $6 million into Tesla, which was then not much more than a pair of founders and a vision of electric sports cars.

– https://time.com/6127754/elon-musk-net-worth-person-of-the-y...

> So AC Propulsion CEO Gage suggested Musk speak with electric car start-up Tesla Motors, which was also looking to commercialize the tzero. Musk reasoned that by teaming up with another company, he could “have my cake and eat it too,” he said on the podcast – he could still run SpaceX but also pursue his passion for electric cars in his spare time.

> “I didn’t think it would be easy, but I thought maybe I could allocate 20 to 30 hours a week and just work on product engineering, and then other people could do the other stuff. I didn’t like doing the other stuff anyway,” Musk said.

– https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/elon-musk-i-really-didnt-wan...

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by SamReidHughes on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:36PM (#36554183)
The parent's source is mind-reading.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by valval on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:50PM (#36554334)
Why? He’s not the one making claims. Do you have any idea how this works?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by minimaxir on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:58PM (#36554413)
On Hacker News it's generally discouraged to post generic dismissals without counterarguments.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by qwerasdf5 on Saturday July 01, 2023 @08:58PM (#36557043)
Correct. Only baseless conjecture is encouraged.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by dspillett on Monday July 03, 2023 @05:58AM (#36570841)
The evidence may be circumstantial, but the conjecture is far from baseless.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by Freedom2 on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:59PM (#36554432)
He claimed his parent comment is making stuff up? What do you mean he's not the one making claims, there's one right there?

Or do you mean claims about Elon? It would suit your comment better to be more specific, please try to do so in the future :)

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by SamReidHughes on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:11PM (#36554587)
user_named's post is absolute nonsense.

"Elon thought he'd be able to wiggle out of it because he assumed the SEC would be the regulatory body he'd be up against"

Bullshit like this has no relation to reality whatsoever.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by user_named on Saturday July 01, 2023 @05:25PM (#36555405)
Bullshit.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by dspillett on Monday July 03, 2023 @06:01AM (#36570859)
> He’s not the one making claims.

Yes. Do you?

> Do you have any idea how this works?

Counter-claims are claims that should be evidenced too.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by jdminhbg on Saturday July 01, 2023 @03:46PM (#36554278)
This is some pretty dumb mental gymnastics to retcon a motivation. The simple explanation: he made an offer for Twitter, then the market (and Twitter’s value) crashed, and he tried to avoid paying the now-vastly overpriced fee he was on the hook for.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by krainboltgreene on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:47PM (#36555013)
This timeline is ahistorical.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by bb611 on Saturday July 01, 2023 @05:14PM (#36555296)
His offer was always well above fair value, which is why Twitter's board took him to court to enforce it.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by JauntTrooper on Saturday July 01, 2023 @05:40PM (#36555551)
His offer was $54.20 in April 2022. That was a 38% premium to the market price immediately prior to his investment, which is attractive but not necessarily "always well above fair value"

Twitter had traded above that price as recently as five months earlier, and had traded in the $60s and even $70s for most of 2021. Twitter's stock had cratered in early 2022 along with many other tech stocks (Facebook went from $330 to $220 in that period).

At the time, the Board could have argued that the current stock price was artificially low due to market forces, and that it wasn't an accurate reflection of the company's prospects. That's especially true because Boards have access to non-public information and longer term forecasts.

When the board agreed to the merger, it signaled to investors that sophisticated insiders on the Board and their financial advisors did not believe the stock would be reasonably likely to reach the offer price in the near/medium term, on a risk adjusted basis, and thus the acquisition is superior. That's important intel for investors, and one of the reasons why failed mergers are so risky.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by samtp on Saturday July 01, 2023 @06:26PM (#36555985)
In what world is a 38% premium not well above market value? If you pay $1.38m for a $1m house, you are definitely paying well above market value.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by JauntTrooper on Saturday July 01, 2023 @06:54PM (#36556177)
Market value and fair value aren't necessarily the same thing.

The 38% is just the one day premium. The offer was at a discount to the stock price less than six months earlier. It was possible that the stock price had overreacted to a tech sell off, and if the market had rebounded by the summer the bid could have looked genius.

Market pricing in M&A is somewhat opaque and different than trading prices because it's based partly on synergy value to a bidder. To use your house example, if the house next door was willing to pay $1.5 million for your house, then the $1.38M is not above market even if Zillow and the list price say it's $1 million.

There were other potential suitors for Twitter, like Microsoft, Disney, Salesforce and private equity. They might have valued it more than Musk based on the benefits it brought their firms. Twitter would be a lot more valuable inside Amazon, Google or Meta but there were probably antitrust issues there.

Plus Twitter's board and management team had access to a lot of material non public information that investors did not. Even if you thought the market price in early April accurately reflected all the public info on Twitter, the Board was looking at 5 year projections and much more detailed pricing/demand/customer info.

The Delaware Courts give a lot of deference to board judgment in these situations, and Twitter's board would have been well within their rights to say "no, that 38% is not good enough" if that was their conclusion after a good faith and reasonable process.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by fundad on Saturday July 01, 2023 @07:48PM (#36556555)
Twitter’s board exited. Post-ZIRP they knew fair value wasn’t higher than the offer so they took the money.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by badrequest on Sunday July 02, 2023 @02:14AM (#36558758)
Does doing mental gymnastics like this strengthen your brain?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by rrrrrrrrrrrryan on Sunday July 02, 2023 @03:13AM (#36559071)
20% - 50% is the typical premium paid to take a public company private.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by JauntTrooper on Sunday July 02, 2023 @08:12PM (#36567186)
No, but it's my day job.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by ipaddr on Monday July 03, 2023 @12:32PM (#36575316)
Where did you hear Disney wanted to buy twitter?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by mirekrusin on Sunday July 02, 2023 @12:48AM (#36558316)
Twitter trades at $53.79 now.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by 3cats-in-a-coat on Sunday July 02, 2023 @10:11AM (#36561649)
Twitter does not trade right now.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by mirekrusin on Sunday July 02, 2023 @04:35PM (#36565407)
Oh crap, you're right, I'm off the loop.

So he just made it private?

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by 3cats-in-a-coat on Monday July 03, 2023 @07:31AM (#36571469)
It's private now, yes. Owned by Musk, Saudi Arabian investors, Jack Dorsey is in with 1 billion (which is now more like 1/3 of a billion) Elon loaned 13 billion of high interest loan from banks, in a leveraged buyout, which means now Twitter owns that debt of 13 billion and paying interest on it of 1 billion a year.

It's a rather dramatic situation.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by user_named on Saturday July 01, 2023 @05:23PM (#36555390)
Wrong
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by kgwxd on Saturday July 01, 2023 @07:28PM (#36556435)
Hanlon's razor is reserved for people without a long history of malice.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by leobg on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:00PM (#36554451)
Haven’t read anything so off the mark in quite a while.

Your basic assumption already makes no sense. Please list the businesses Elon has started after his PayPal days with the goal of enriching himself.

Also, money is a means to an end, is it not? So what do you think he’d do with more money? Again, you can look at what he did with his Zip2 money. And then his PayPal money. That might give you a clue.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by fundad on Saturday July 01, 2023 @07:51PM (#36556579)
Right it’s not about revenue, only power
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by leobg on Sunday July 02, 2023 @02:26AM (#36558815)
One might think that, sure. But I’ve seen this story that led to the Twitter takeover unfold since 2015. And I don’t think you’re right in this case.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by thomassmith65 on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:01PM (#36554459)
My impression was that he bought Twitter for the reasons you say, but failed to predict the dip in the market that followed it.

If Twitter stock hadn't sunken immediately like a stone, he probably would have pulled it off, too, even after the signing the agreement.

If indeed the Twitter deal was manipulation to leave poorer investors holding the Tesla bag, it's hard to feel sorry for him.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by kevingadd on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:25PM (#36554751)
It seems like loading Twitter up with debt servicing was always a bad idea, stock dip or not, considering what its revenues were like. It wasn't in great shape before but the amount of money it now has to spend servicing debt is a nightmare for anyone trying to make that company profitable. His strategy for buying it simply doesn't make sense.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by fundad on Saturday July 01, 2023 @07:49PM (#36556562)
I think the influence is more important than revenue
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by Beldin on Sunday July 02, 2023 @04:07AM (#36559374)
Not if the endgoal is to arrive at a profitable version of Twitter, no.

So maybe that's not the goal. Or maybe it is but the CEO is vastly more incompetent than those underwriting his bid anticipated.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by whitepaint on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:23PM (#36554735)
> but because Elon is fundamentally a dumb guy

Lol, a guy worth quarter of a trillion dollars, owning an electric car company and a rocket company "is fundamentally a dumb guy". How fucking dumb and full of hate you have to be to say something like that? Hahahaha.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by leokennis on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:32PM (#36554855)
Ah yes. Inheriting and owning stuff makes you smart. Maybe even the smartest. One could argue it even makes you a “stable genius”!
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by ALittleLight on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:36PM (#36554900)
Both of Musk's parents are still alive. Neither of them were involved in the electric car or rocket companies. It's fine to be a Musk critic - but you should restrict yourself to saying things that are actually true rather than making stuff up.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by Timon3 on Sunday July 02, 2023 @04:31AM (#36559513)
Maybe inheritance isn't the right word. I understood them as saying "he was born into money" - is there another way to say he "inherited" purely in the sense of money being passed onto him?
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by ALittleLight on Sunday July 02, 2023 @03:59PM (#36565074)
That's also not true. Musk's parents may have been millionaires (hard to tell, this is disputed and their wealth likely changed over time) - but it's not like that's the source of Musk's money. Musk founded a company in college with his brother, his father invested 25k in the company (about 10% of total investment - so, no reason to think this investment was necessary/dispositive). Musk later sold the company for about 300 million - he reinvested that money in his future companies.

Musk's wealth doesn't come from "being born into money" - it comes from being an entrepreneur. Recently there is hate at Musk for political/ideological reasons. Now people just lie and make stuff up without regard for the truth - I find it sickening.

Musk was advantaged by having parents who raised him, provided for his education, and invested in his early company. He had more advantages from birth than most people in the world, but if you compare him to the average Stanford grad student (where he dropped out) I'm not certain he's in the top decile in terms of advantage. On the other hand, in terms of outcome, Musk is clearly an extreme outlier - pretending like Musk-outcomes are determined by his parents or family money is pure cope.

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by whitepaint on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:35PM (#36554894)
I just absolutely love how he makes his haters' brains break.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by leokennis on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:54PM (#36555080)
I’m really happy you’re enjoying it that much. And I’m sure Elon will sleep a little better next night, knowing you’re there standing guard for him!
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by version_five on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:37PM (#36554919)
I think it's fair to say he's done some stupid stuff, but obviously he's done more than enough smart stuff to make up for it. He's deserving of some criticism but a lot of HN seems to have turned it into more of an insane jealousy. I think that's the price of success and doubt he cares that some internet critic thinks they're smarter than him.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by theobromananda on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:30PM (#36554826)
Is your comment the reverse of the great philosophical statement "If you're so clever why aren't you rich?".
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by mrb on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:45PM (#36555004)
I downvoted both you and the parent. While I agree with your argument, HN is not a place for disrespectful language as used by you and the parent.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by majesticglue on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:46PM (#36555008)
elon musk simps are everywhere lol.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by jfax on Saturday July 01, 2023 @04:57PM (#36555126)
If you gave someone with a severe learning disability $100billion the first thing they would do is start commissioning rockets and race cars.
Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by grecy on Saturday July 01, 2023 @07:01PM (#36556220)
And the incredible part is that it just won’t matter. Tesla and spacex are licensed to print money for the next decade or more.

Him losing 40 billion is like us losing 400. It just won’t matter in the grand scheme

Re:Confirmed: Twitter switched temporarily to rate limited mode by l33tc0de on Sunday July 02, 2023 @05:23AM (#36559788)
"but because Elon is fundamentally a dumb guy" - Oh genius, let us know who you are