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Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:19PM (#35943196)
One of the most interesting things to me is the racists that insist that we should examine all demographic factors when trying to identify who the criminals are, but they shy away from the pure fact that violent crime is almost exclusively perpetuated by men. And yet, there are no calls from them for a restriction on male immigration.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:27PM (#35943239)
Racists shy away from the fact that men are more likely to commit murder than women? No, I assure you, roughly every racist on Earth would find any other view ridiculous. But it is very easy to find non-racists who take the equally absurd position of denying that African Americans are more likely to commit murder than White Americans

And you're wrong when you say there are no calls from racists to restrict male immigration. Of course, most racists want to restrict both male and female immigration. But one constantly sees complaints specifically about how many male immigrants are entering the USA. And I have seen it suggested (though only rarely) that immigration should be allowed for females only.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:34PM (#35943283)
> You will be hard-pressed to find a racist that denies that men are more likely to commit murder than women.

What I'm saying, doesn't require that.

What I'm saying is if demographic factors are fair game for immigration restriction, there's one very clear one that is often overlooked by racists.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by benatkin on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:45PM (#35943375)
"Comparisons are odious."

This comparison between racism and sexism doesn't work very well. Sometimes they're very analogous, sometimes they aren't.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by bilbo0s on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:46PM (#35943382)
Well, you're right if it makes you feel better. Clearly males are more dangerous than females and restricting male immigration makes some sense. I could see an argument that immigration should be female only.

That said. Apparently, we're talking about 1% of the population if the article is to be believed. So we're not really talking about all males here, nor even a majority of males for that matter.

Of course that also means we're not talking about anything close to a majority of black americans, but that's a whole other discussion.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:22PM (#35943561)
> Well, you're right if it makes you feel better.

Cheers.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:06PM (#35943484)
I might have been a bit uncharitable in my interpretation of your comment. I think your view is this:

Racists support immigration from white men and women, but if racists really care so much about demographics they should only support immigration from white women, since they're much less violent than men.

OK, this is a reasonable enough point and deserves a reasonable response, but I think the response is quite simple:

As long as both white men and white women are contributing positively to society, and improving the future demographics of the country, why wouldn't racists welcome both? If they limited immigration to only the less-violent female whites, they'd be missing out on the net-positive contribution of white males, and thereby shooting themselves in the foot, and for what? A demographic shift in the short-term that will lead to reduced violence. But also the troubles that come along with gender-imbalance. And in the long-term, the population will go back to being roughly 50:50 male-female anyway.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:22PM (#35943559)
> 2. You can't have white women without white men.

As objectionable as some might find it, tearing apart families through immigration policy is already possible. If the idea is that immigration is bad because it brings more crime, the conclusion is clear, if we evaluate things objectively.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:26PM (#35943580)
I wasn't talking about tearing families apart. I was talking about the fact of biology that white females can only come into being if there are white men to father them. In any case, I simplified my comment into just one point.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:35PM (#35943625)
Actually white females can come into being if the definition of white is expanded. Initial conceptions of whiteness didn't include Scottish and Irish people, and recently Richard Spencer said he thinks 80% of Italians are white. This would have been an unthinkable statement even in the 1970s.

White is a fluid category with no real objective basis. I recently saw a very amusing argument between an American, English and Polish troupe. The American said that Poland was a great example of a pure white ethnostate. The Englishman said the American was an idiot - Polish people were Slavic. The Polish nationalist said they were both idiots - Polish people are Polish, not Slavic nor White.

I challenge anyone to come up with an objective definition of whiteness.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:38PM (#35943641)
Did you get bored of the discussion we were having?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:44PM (#35943678)
> white females can only come into being if there are white men to father them.

Incorrect. Read what I said again.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:56PM (#35943730)
I am very interested in a serious conversation about the initial topic. If you want to talk about that, I would be happy.

But in the meantime I will play along with this tangent, since I guess it could be fun, too.

Embracing a new definition of the White race does not cause more white females to be brought into being (at least, not in any easily predictable way). It simply causes females that had already been brought into being to be reclassified from non-White to White.

And their fathers would have to be White, too.

At no point in time are there White females who do not have White fathers.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:08AM (#35943795)
Interesting. When did the first white father exist? Could you provide historical and scientific evidence of that person's existence and proof of their whiteness?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:18AM (#35943840)
I think some Homo sapiens sapiens in Europe mated with some Homo sapiens neanderthalensis and that's where the white skin came from. Maybe. But this was a very long time ago and there's no historical record or way of using DNA evidence to narrow anything down to a specific date or a specific person. Even if we did know the person whether we met the conditions for being white would depend on what kind of definition of the White race we were using. For example, whether we were using a definition that focused on the current point in time, or one that was interested in the White race as it exists and evolves throughout the past and future.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:28AM (#35943886)
Oh interesting, so you're saying the definition changes through time and those changes can change the amount of white people in the world.

That also seems to suggest there's no objective definition of white, which also seems to suggest that any claim that all white people need to have a white father would be utter garbage.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:35AM (#35943915)
> so you're saying the definition changes through time

No, I was saying you could have a static definition that accepted the obvious fact that the White race would evolve over thousands of generations.

I will also say now that there are many definitions of the White race and that to whatever extent there is one "the definition" of the White race, it changes over time, too.

And you have at the end made a logical error. Just because there are a range of possible definitions of the White race does not mean that all possible definitions of the White race are acceptable. Just because there are components of and aspects of the definition of the White race that my change, does not mean that there are not components and aspects which may not change. And, while there may be edge cases, in general, one needs to have White parents to be White. That's because one's race is determined by one's ancestry.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:44AM (#35943964)
> the obvious fact that the White race would evolve over thousands of generations.

Ok so there was a long period of time when "white" people didn't have white fathers. But earlier you said that's not possible.

Another way of saying there's edge cases for a rule is that the rule isn't a rule at all.

> That's because one's race is determined by one's ancestry.

Not true! You and I both agree that some people that were previously referred to as non-white are now commonly referred to as white. Ancestry is one part of the muddled definition that racists try to worm their way around into being objective. The truth is there's no objective basis for race, it is all made up, and it changes pretty constantly. I'd consider myself white but I have Polish (Slavic) and Scottish (previously non-white) ancestry. But, at some point, it became fine for me and people like me to call ourselves white. The English would have disagreed, as recently as the 1850s.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @01:40AM (#35944258)
* * *
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:16AM (#35944425)
> White females can't come into being without White fathers. They could during the formation of the White race. But they can't now.

The white race is continually being formed, which is evidenced by the changing attitudes towards whether Italians, Greeks, Irish, Scottish and Polish people are white - amongst others. You'll find a tonne of people that disagree over whether Polish people, and others, are white. There's no central authority that definitively decides.

> Biological race is just ancestry.

What's the scientific definition of race? Feel free to use biology papers for this discussion.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:23AM (#35944470)
There's no "the" scientific definition of race. There are various definitions of race that could be called scientific, although I'm not totally sure what it means for a definition to be scientific. The only thing that could be called "the" scientific definition of race is the very unscientific definition that generally emerges like this:

> Genetic variation is greater within groups than between them :^) There is no biological justification for racial groupings :^) Race is purely a social construct :^)

Which admittedly isn't much of a definition but does make it clear (incorrectly) that there is no valid biological justification for racialism.

I define a race just like dictionaries did before the race-doesn't-exist-except-as-a-social-construct movement was established did:

>a group of people having common ancestors

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:32AM (#35944513)
Don't all humans have common ancestors?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:35AM (#35944522)
Yes, as far as I know all living things have common ancestors. A definition I wrote myself is this:

> A race: a people who have been largely or totally isolated (in terms of procreation) from other peoples for a very great number of generations.

Which is still very far from perfect. Definitions are difficult.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:43AM (#35944552)
During what period (please tell me the years so I can understand) were white people "largely or totally isolated" from other people? In what area (would be great if you could show on a map) were they isolated?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:44AM (#35944557)
from their origin until today

sorry not gonna do any maps, doesn't seem right to put 5x more effort into this conversation than you are

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:50AM (#35944597)
Alright, fair enough. I just haven't seen a map or a time period laid out that's ever explained this mythical whiteness. I don't think such a map exists, and all the racists I talk to always struggle to provide one. It'd be good to get a solid historically and biologically accurate outline from an intellectual heavyweight like yourself!

Thanks for playing!

What year did they originate and where, by the way?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:01AM (#35944663)
I'm not an intellectual heavy-weight. I am good at formal logical and, also relevantly, at countering the statement "there is more genetic variation within racial groups than between them". I also care about the truth more than anything else which I guess is a good first step toward being an intellectual.

I don't think I could make a good map of where the White race has lived over time even if I watnted to. I think it started somewhere in Europe in like 15,000 BC (very roughly), then spread throughout Europe, then had a colonial period during the last millennia where it colonised all over the world. Certainly I'm very far from an expert on this and it would depend obviously on the exact definition of the White race being used.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:12AM (#35944722)
> I don't think I could make a good map of where the White race has lived over time even if I watnted to. I think...

But let me stop you right there and ask you, if you think the white race is a real thing. Because if it requires at a minimum to be "largely" isolated from others, but you and I can't collectively identify with certainty where or when that isolation happened - I don't think either of us can definitively even say if "white" is a real race based on those requirements.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by calderknight on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:26AM (#35944807)
I mean, something in Europe was isolated at beginning at some point in time continuing to today. Whether I know their location at each year since their inception doesnt seem to matter that much
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:34AM (#35944861)
> something in Europe was isolated

Ok! When and where?

I mean at this point this is just hilarious, because you've said white people are a real thing, and they were isolated from other people at some point (15000 BC???) which made the race form but you can't say exactly when or where that happened. So you, supposedly great at "formal logic" have no idea when this thing started existing, its existence by your definition would have been passed down to now from that point through ancestry, and yet you are somehow certain that it exists.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by willcipriano on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:26PM (#35943231)
What's interesting to me is the opposite. Why aren't we screaming about the systemic oppression that must be forcing men to act violently?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by roughly on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:29PM (#35943251)
This is actually a thread in feminist theory, which is ignored more broadly for reasons I’m sure you can imagine.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:28PM (#35943248)
> must be

Why do you think this?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by ggm on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:36PM (#35943298)
It's an analogue of rational market theory: no asocial choice can be rationalised as a good long-term plan so there must be externalities which are causative.

I don't believe in rational market players with full knowledge and equal information any more than I believe all violent men had externalities which were causative.

But I do believe poverty and epigenetic influences can exist.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by artificialLimbs on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:56PM (#35943444)
Majority of criminals are from abusive or fatherless homes. That's the externality.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Georgelemental on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:35PM (#35943292)
I suspect the sarcasm went over your head.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by olalonde on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:50PM (#35952832)
I believe it was sarcasm.

There's a surprisingly prevalent, but misguided, school of thought which asserts that disparities in outcomes across gender or racial lines imply sexism or racism. This concept is closely associated with the "tabula rasa" or "blank slate" theory[0]. Thomas Sowell wrote an entire book that debunks this idea ("Discrimination and Disparities").

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabula_rasa

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by KennyBlanken on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:44PM (#35943368)
What's interesting to me is that we're apparently letting a completely ludicrous, unsupported claim to go unchallenged.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by benatkin on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:52PM (#35943420)
Then you would notice that the averages between men and women on some things like height are significantly different even though it's easy to find individual counter-examples.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Bran_son on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:26PM (#35943232)
> And yet, there are no calls from them for a restriction on male immigration.

I'm pretty sure they call for restricting immigration of both sexes. Besides, if you believe violence is partly genetic, then a sex-based immigration restriction is a solution that lasts only one generation.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:29PM (#35943253)
> if you believe violence is partly genetic, then a sex-based immigration restriction is a solution that lasts only one generation.

What if it's a trait carried on the Y chromosome?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Bran_son on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:39PM (#35943322)
Then they will reveal the real reason they oppose immigration: to reduce competition of their genetic in-group with other groups.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by rowanG077 on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:37PM (#35943306)
You know what they say. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I would expect that if that were the case we would have long noticed certain paternal lineages having all the aggression.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by enkid on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:31PM (#35943262)
I mean, statistically illegal immigrants in the US are less likely to commit violent crime. [0] Truthfully, that audience probably isn't too concerned with statistics.

[0]https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014704117

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:38PM (#35943307)
I mean, yeah, this is kind of obvious if you think about it. The majority of violent crime in the US is committed by black people, so inherently a marginal increase in any other ethnic group (including hispanic) would (on expectation) lead to a decrease in per-capita violent crime, unless illegal immigrants were more violent than legal immigrants (which we have no evidence of).
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by cortesoft on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:39PM (#35943326)
What is always tricky about any attempt to use statistical prediction on something rare like criminality is that you have two things that are both true: the vast majority of crimes are committed by men, AND the vast majority of men are not criminals.

So what do you do with this information? If a crime is committed, you can guess with some accuracy it was likely committed by a man, but you can't arrest a random man and think he is likely the criminal.

Any attempts to preemptively limit male behavior is going to affect a lot more innocent men than guilty men.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943357)
Excellent point, I hope we can apply this to all demographic factors.

However, if we are limiting people based on potential for violent criminality, one category leaps out for effectively applying restrictions to, and that's men.

I'm totally against applying those limits based on potential violent criminality, however.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by olalonde on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:41PM (#35943344)
You also don't hear people claiming that this disparity is caused by sexism.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by nayuki on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:38PM (#35943308)
Immigration? I'm pretty sure there are enough problems with locally born men who are criminals. Immigration is but a drop in the bucket when it comes to problems.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by sinoue on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:22PM (#35943211)
If you have a criminal record your chances of a legal immigration is drastically reduced.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by nicenewtemp84 on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:29PM (#35943250)
The guy that shot Kate in SF had been deported 6 times. The guy that shot his neighbors in Texas recently had been deported 4 times. Getting into the US, and living in the US, with whatever history of violence you have is apparently very easy.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by orangepurple on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943356)
There are multiple places along the US Mexican border that are both easy to cross and don't have any sort of fence. Usually the large fence just stops. If you cross in those locations you are immediately asked to wait in line for a bus to be taken to a detention center where you are given an I-94 and an NGO funds your bus ride to New Jersey and New York where you will work under the table for cheap and skip your immigration court hearing. If you DON'T want to get caught, it is harder, since the border patrol knows where the crossing areas are and the terrain is more hostile although less patrolled.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by nicenewtemp84 on Monday May 15, 2023 @01:42PM (#35951819)
Someone getting deported 6 times probably doesn't go through those easy points you mentioned. I imagine if youve been physically deported by the government, if they find you again at a point like that, you get sent back? Yet if someone can come back in 6 times, I have to assume even the harder routes aren't THAT hard.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by inferiorhuman on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:46PM (#35943381)

  The guy that shot Kate in SF 
Yeah maybe the park ranger shouldn't have left his weapon around for strangers to play with it. Create less enticement for crime and you'll see less crime.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by nicenewtemp84 on Monday May 15, 2023 @01:44PM (#35951838)
I don't think leaving a weapon somewhere is an enticement to crime. If I saw a weapon loose somewhere, I would report it to my local police. If I was an illegal, I would ignore it. If I was a shady illegal, I might take the gun and try to sell it or keep it for personal protection. You know what I wouldn't do? Go pointing it anywhere around a group of people.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by inferiorhuman on Wednesday May 17, 2023 @07:23AM (#35973780)
The crime was playing with a gun that accidentally went off thus leaving a weapon laying around was absolutely enticement.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by nicenewtemp84 on Thursday May 18, 2023 @11:45AM (#35989643)
Playing with a gun around a crowd of people.. that you brought with you to a crowd of people...

It's not like he found the gun THERE. He didn't even find it that day. He was just playing with a random gun that wasn't his, in a crowd of people. Ya, accident.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by bombcar on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:23PM (#35943216)
I’ve seen that (maybe sarcastically) proposed in places - unlimited immigration of fertile women only.

Don’t put it past them.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:38PM (#35943315)
That's actually happened at least once in history [1]:

> Convict women in Australia were British prisoners whom the government increasingly sent out during the era of transportation (1787-1868) in order to develop the penal outpost of New South Wales (now a state of Australia) into a viable colony.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convict_women_in_Australia

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943353)
This would have some extremely interesting population-level genetic consequences if it was accompanied by some sort of social change to allow polygyny. In particular, it would reduce the correlation that exists across all adaptive traits due to assortative monogamous mating patterns. Right now, all "desirable" traits like health/intelligence/strength/etc are strongly correlated, but when you reduce the strength of assortative effects, the correlation weakens significantly.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by aaronblohowiak on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:00PM (#35943461)
> Right now, all "desirable" traits like health/intelligence/strength/etc are strongly correlated

Oh?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Monday May 15, 2023 @11:45AM (#35950119)
Yeah, for an illustrative example of assortative mating effects, consider the stereotype of the rich nerd with the hot wife. Kids are smart and attractive. This plays out at every pareto level in the sexual marketplace.

Basically, monogamy breaks the ability of sexual selection to "dilute" bad genes with good ones. I'm not anti-monogamy, but it's a social technology which has tradeoffs (this being one of them).

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by BobTheDestroyer on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:27PM (#35943237)
Now I'm curious if men are disproportionately more violent than women also due to the much-memed "socioeconomic factors"?

Or would you concede that there is a genetic element in the gender disparity? And would you then also recognise that factor in the racial disparity?

I also want to add that if the violent crime rate of White men was the biggest problem we faced as a society, well what a wonderful problem that would be to have. That would be a utopia compared to the challenges being faced by non-White and increasingly multiracial populations around the world right now.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by 13of40 on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:36PM (#35943302)
One issue with that is that people tend to come in pairs. What good is it to the couple if the woman can immigrate but the man can't?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:33PM (#35943275)
When exactly do racists/bayesians shy away from this fact?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:35PM (#35943290)
Whenever they focus on race as a useful predictor for criminality. It's dwarfed immensely by the sex difference.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by pdonis on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943350)
Even so, being male is a very weak predictor, since only a few percent of men are violent criminals. (And yes, that implies that race is an even weaker predictor.)
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:39PM (#35943329)
Every single bayesianism advocate is aware of this. It's so obvious that it's implicit - there's simply no need to state "95% of crime is committed by men"; this is completely uncontroversial and does not need to be discussed. The controversial part is applying bayesianism to other, more politically sensitive predictors.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by pdonis on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:44PM (#35943370)
The proper Bayesian response would be to look for factors that are better predictors, since both "being male" and any race are very weak predictors (see my other comment upthread).
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by hablog on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:49PM (#35943400)
> The proper Bayesian response... since both "being male" and any race are very weak predictors (see my other comment upthread).

I saw your comment - you don't understand how bayesianism works. Look up "odds ratios" for the most salient concept that you're missing here.

If P(x|!y) = 0.0000001 and P(x|y) = 0.01, this relationship is extremely powerful even though it's "weak" in the sense you're using.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by pdonis on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:18PM (#35953240)
> Look up "odds ratios"

Sure, compute the odds ratio for committing a violent crime due to being male. It is large, which in plain English means "most violent criminals are male".

But that doesn't mean the probability of a randomly chosen male being a violent criminal is large. It's still small, because you have to multiply the odds ratio by a very small prior (since the prior probability of a randomly chosen person being a violent criminal is very small). So if all you know about a person is that they are male, you still have only a very weak prediction that they might be a violent criminal. In other words, in plain English, "most males are not violent criminals".

What you need to have a strong predictor is some factor X for which not just the odds ratio but the posterior probability of being a violent criminal, conditioned on X, is large, i.e., for which you can say "most X's are violent criminals". Being male is not such a factor.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:45PM (#35943376)
Excellent! I hope the premises lead to the correct conclusions rather than ones ignorant of the premises.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by lotsofpulp on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:26PM (#35943229)
Is this true? I assume detectives always start with men as suspects in physical crimes unless the evidence indicates otherwise.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:28PM (#35943241)
It's universally true. There's no nation where it isn't true.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by lotsofpulp on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:28PM (#35943247)
This claim?

>when trying to identify who the criminals are, but they shy away from the pure fact that violent crime is almost exclusively perpetuated by men.

I am not a cop, but I would be very surprised if a violent crime happens where it is unknown if the suspect is a man or a woman, that most cops (around the world) give it a 50-50 chance that the criminal is a man or woman.

I would bet they will start by looking for a man, all else being equal.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:28PM (#35943243)
This is a pointless observation since the male/female difference is the approximately equal for all races. In contrast, black women in the US commit more murders per capita than do white men: 5.8 versus 3.5 per 100k, as of 2021 per the FBI/Department of Justice. Black women are the only female group with this distinction compared to the male ethnic majority in the US, and all other countries of which I am aware.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by geysersam on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:40PM (#35943337)
Meanwhile, homicide rate for men in Germany is about 2 per 100k. This quite clearly indicates that socio-economical factors can easily explain the differences.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:51PM (#35943413)
It does not. Americans have a median income roughly 10% higher than Germans, far more guns per capita than Germans, and nearly 40% of male homicide suspects in Germany are non-German in any case:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101485/non-german-crime...

By the way, if we only consider non-Hispanic whites (this is a state-defined census category) America's homicide rate is 2.2:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/21/how-amer...

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by geysersam on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:30PM (#35943600)
> median income roughly 10% higher than Germans, far more guns per capita than Germans

Yes, the kind of stuff called soci-economic factors.

> 40% of male homicide suspects in Germany are non-German

Okay to the homocide rate of "real" Germans is about 40% lower then?

Can you not just accept that "white" (however you like to define the term presently) men commit significantly more murders in America than in Germany?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:05AM (#35944684)
>Can you not just accept that "white" (however you like to define the term presently) men commit significantly more murders in America than in Germany?

Sure, I agree and I'm pointing out reasons as to why that is. I have never before heard gun policy lumped in with "socioeconomic factors."

My original point is that socioeconomic factors alone don't explain the gap in murder rates between e.g. black women and white men in the US and in other countries. Your argument to the contrary is woefully insufficient. Comparisons between the same race and sex in two similar cultures at similar income levels isn't enough.

We already know wealth and income correlate somewhat with crime. This effect is seen within racial groups. What we don't know is why large gaps exist between different groups at similar income levels. The effect is particularly stark and peculiar when it comes to violent crimes e.g. rape which have nothing to do with stealing to feed oneself.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:30PM (#35943258)
It's not a pointless observation. If we restricted immigration to women only, violence perpetrated by immigrants would drop somewhere north of 90%.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by ggm on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:38PM (#35943312)
Violence perpetrated ON immigrants however, would inevitably rise since the same statistical validity applied to most women being the victims of violence.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:05PM (#35943475)
>women being the victims of violence.

What sort of violence are we talking about? Men are murdered far more often than women across the globe, at a ratio of about 4 to 1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homicide_statistics_by_gender

Men are slightly more likely than women to experience domestic violence in the US, per the CDC's National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey:

https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/nisvs/NISVSReport...

However, woman are about twice as likely to become victims of sexual violence:

https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/sexualviolence/fastfa...

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:27PM (#35943588)
> What sort of violence are we talking about? Men are murdered far more often than women across the globe, at a ratio of about 4 to 1:

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homicide_statistics_by_gender

You know this just seems like male on male violence to me ;)

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:56AM (#35944629)
Hundreds of black men have died violent deaths because of bad policy written by those who, like you, avert their eyes from reality when it suits them:

https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1651437800842223616

Granted, they don't always do it with a droll non-sequitur.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @03:43AM (#35944926)
What reality do you think I'm averting my eyes from?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @05:46AM (#35945730)
That heritable factors which correlate with race significantly impact rates of violent crime, including large differences in crime rates between groups; that these differences matter more than sex differences, particularly given taboos around race; and that this knowledge should drive expectations for fair criminal justice policy.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @07:10AM (#35946357)
> these differences matter more than sex differences

No they don't.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @08:37AM (#35947192)
Yes, they do. Here's why:

Human sex is binary (sorry, but it is, even accounting for disorders of sex development). Male and female humans have vastly different physical capabilities and proclivities towards violence. Justice systems expect these differences and so does broader society. No one believes that since most imprisoned murderers are men, there's systemic anti-male bias in the justice system. The relevant biological differences between sexes are acknowledged and accepted. I'm asking HNers to accept similar well-studied differences between ancestral genetic groups.

Refusal to acknowledge and accept these differences has already led to bad policy, such as de-policing America's black communities, which has cost hundreds of black men their lives in just the last few years. A minority of this minority is allowed to run wild and victimize their neighbors and society at large. This is plainly unsustainable. We can take our medicine now and accept the need to police violent criminals, even if they are black, or we can keep our heads in the sand until something far worse boils over. This is the thrust of all my comments on this link.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:09AM (#35947569)
> The relevant biological differences between sexes are acknowledged and accepted.

Except if they were accepted in the way racists wanted race to be accepted, we'd crack down hard on freedom of movement for men.

A consistent racist would want us to pull our head out of the sand and more rigorously police the violent criminals that are, almost always men.

The data on the outsized violence of men is much more consistent, and dramatic, than the violence of any "ancestral genetic group".

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:17AM (#35947671)
>Except if they were accepted in the way racists wanted race to be accepted, we'd crack down hard on freedom of movement for men.

Bananas. Where do you find this stuff?

>A consistent racist would want us to pull our head out of the sand and more rigorously police the violent criminals that are, almost always men.

We already police men way more than women, what's your point?

>The data on the outsized violence of men is much more consistent, and dramatic, than the violence of any "ancestral genetic group".

Read the last part again: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35943243

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:35AM (#35947906)
The reality is, if we were using demographic factors to prevent immigrants who cause violence from coming into a country, there's a few that are much more predictive than race.

First, we'd ban all men.

Second, we'd ban everyone under the age of 30. Maybe everyone under 50 if we were feeling really fascist.

With these two evidence based restrictions, we'd effectively eliminate violent crime perpetrated by immigrants. That's the stark reality, and its so funny to see racists try to avoid these points.

> We already police men way more than women, what's your point?

We would need to put more police in places where men congregate to be truly consistent - like software companies. The de-policing of men's places of work like these, may be putting us at risk, after all.

I'm just being realistic.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:54AM (#35948168)
I could say that no one has seriously proposed "eliminating ALL violent crime perpetrated by immigrants," and you're using this absurd strawman as some sort of shield to avoid discussing race, and that people generally accept other groups who commit violent crime at similar rates to their own, and it's just one group in the US in particular who falls way outside the bell curve (per link theme)... but it's clear you aren't here for earnest or honest discussion, so I'm out.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @10:14AM (#35948481)
Oh no you've got me all wrong! I love discussing race, and in particular how made up the concept of whiteness is. It's just most racists don't like to have that discussion, they'd rather try to throw stats around to justify more policing, but the stats don't lie - it'd be by far more effective to focus on and police men of all persuasions, rather than focussing on different made up race categories.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @06:48PM (#35955557)
"Made-up race categories" are visible to the naked eye, to principal-component analysis of alleles, to measures of genetic distance, to surveys of visible and invisible traits, to even the smallest child who's only begun to speak.

What was the Human Genome Project for? Your mockery and denial, I guess. Why have scientists spent lifetimes improving DNA sequencing technologies, carefully gathering data, and drawing conclusion based on the evidence? So you could laugh it all off, I suppose.

Your refusal to acknowledge reality fails to budge reality. The natural world doesn't care about race or sex solipsism. Policy founded on reality-denial will always eventually fail and be replaced. Whether it fails hard or soft and what is allowed to replace it is the question of our time in America.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Tuesday May 16, 2023 @04:55PM (#35967650)
> "Made-up race categories" are visible to the naked eye, to principal-component analysis of alleles, to measures of genetic distance, to surveys of visible and invisible traits, to even the smallest child who's only begun to speak.

Initial definitions of white, didn't include Scottish and Irish people.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Wednesday May 17, 2023 @07:03PM (#35982333)
> It's just most racists don't like to have that discussion,
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by jankyxenon on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:36PM (#35943299)
How does the value of reduced immigrant crime stack up against the cost of skewing the sex balance in a country?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943346)
It's a statistical thought experiment, nobody (who is sane) is claiming that it would be a good thing.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by jankyxenon on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:18PM (#35943539)
Check OP I’m responding too. His question is why racists don’t call for a male immigration ban - not a statistical thought experiment.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:27AM (#35943881)
I believe they are simply pointing out the hypocrisy of the racist rant. Racists claim that the reason they are against immigration from certain countries because of the increase in crime rate they would allegedly bring.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @06:44AM (#35946141)
Immigrants from certain countries do increase crime. It is a matter of public record in many Western countries. Sweden has gone so far as to ban the collection of statistics which reveal this, though earlier statistics and their occasional comprehensive report still indicate the same trend:

https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/2021/11/sweden-finally-publishe...

I can't help but wonder why you would deny these plain facts.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Monday May 15, 2023 @10:31PM (#35957173)
> I can't help but wonder why you would deny this.

In which of my comments have I denied (or accepted) it?

PS: Straw man argument is one of the tools racists use frequently. Don't use it too much or you may be mistaken for one.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by neurobama on Monday May 15, 2023 @10:55PM (#35957286)
Your tone clearly indicates skepticism; "racist rants", "allegedly."

PS: Moralizing condescension isn't conducive to a positive response.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by selcuka on Monday May 15, 2023 @11:18PM (#35957397)
> "racist rants"

It is true that I'm being condescending to racists. I'm also not expecting a positive response if the person (not necessarily you) I'm engaging is racist. It would be foolish.

> "allegedly"

Allegedly doesn't mean that they are wrong. It simply means that I don't know if they are wrong or right, because I don't have enough data. If I thought it is complete bollocks I would have written it as such.

Also you seem to ignore that the main point of my comment is the "hypocrisy", i.e. only pointing out racial statistics, ignoring the gender (and possibly other variables, such as age) related ones.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by ryan93 on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:27PM (#35943235)
I think you will find that racists will be okay with basically any immigration restriction. Its like people arguing back with anti affirmative action people that legacy admissions are unfair. Well they would happily give up a benefit they will never receive to get what they want!
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by whitemary on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:25PM (#35943224)
It's not racism and calling it that does a disservice to the issues of actual racism. Also, nobody says that. Police will always use correlation to predict criminality. You will never change that, but we can change the reason for the statistical correlation: poverty.

Male immigration is too profitable, so nobody with a voice would want to curb it.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Bran_son on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:32PM (#35943273)
> we can change the reason for the statistical correlation: poverty.

Even within the same income bracket, the black homicide rate is an order of magnitude larger than the white one (and after 1975, the homicide rate of the richest blacks is larger than for the poorest whites):

https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/11/16/racial-differe... , table 6

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by SonOfKyuss on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:21PM (#35943555)
Can you correct for slavery and 400 years of oppression though?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by alienicecream on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:38AM (#35947940)
What exactly is the argument? That rich blacks commit murder at a higher rate than poor whites directly contradicts the argument that it is all about poverty. So the usual argument that slavery led to poverty and poverty leads to crime is wrong. What's left? That these people are committing murder to avenge the slavery of their ancestors, or that murder was baked into their culture by slavery?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by orangepurple on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:34PM (#35943286)
Yet the truly poor are subsidized with food stamps and subsidized housing. Poor people in West Virginia (a large amount) generally don't kill each other. What am I missing?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by anoxor on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:24PM (#35943220)
The key is being constantly low key against men, and constantly has gas light that your aren’t. Too high key, and you get called out on it.

60% of college grades are now women, success! (Unless your a guy, sucks for you that the university has been feminized and constant low key attacks against masculinity, men, and male tendencies)

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by jimjimjim on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:38PM (#35943317)
That is pure word salad. are you a gpt?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by anoxor on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:46PM (#35943385)
Have you heard people seriously discuss what would be required to have men catch to women and be 50% of college graduates?

If the situation were reversed, would there be advocates for increasing the graduation of women to 50%

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by KennyBlanken on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:42PM (#35943359)
> hey shy away from the pure fact that violent crime is almost exclusively perpetuated by men

[citation required]

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @10:47PM (#35943387)
[dead]
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by PrimeMcFly on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:14PM (#35943521)
TERFs have nothing to do with this at all.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by msla on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:16AM (#35943826)
You'd certainly hope they wouldn't be on HN, wouldn't you?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by PrimeMcFly on Monday May 15, 2023 @02:56AM (#35944630)
Eh. I certainly don't want bigots on HN. But TERF has become a slur to silence anyone that says anything that people can take offense to in the context of trans issues, and isn't always deserved or accurate.
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Vt71fcAqt7 on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:34PM (#35943620)
You seem to be makimg several claims here, some more related to what I think is your main point than others:

1. racists insist that we should examine all demographic factors when trying to identify who the criminals are

2. they shy away from the pure fact that violent crime is almost exclusively perpetuated by men.

3. there are no calls from them for a restriction on male immigration.

4. using "but" And "yet" between 1 and 2 and 3 shows you believe that 2 and 3 delegitimize 1.

Regarding point 1, I think you are mostly correct, although not all racists would agree. ("Not all racists!")

Regarding point 2, I think you are certainly wrong insofar as there is no lack of admission. But I think your main point is really implied from 3 which is that racists only seem to focus on racial group differences rather than sex differences for violent crimes, which has been used as one of the major "scientific" justifications for racism while ignoring that the same argumemt when applied to men vs. women would show that women are better than men. And this is certainly an interesting point as you said.

Regarding 3 itself — and not your implied argument I expanded on above — it is also not exactly correct. Most racists would find female immigrants more favorable than male immigrants.

In any case, regarding your main point, I believe mosts racists would say that males "equal out" females in some way, for example that men created medicine, or would point out that at the very least society cannot continue without men from a biological point of view or some other explaination, and these explainations are not relevant wrt race.

All this said, I think the way you made this argument with its multiple subtly different claims is part of what generated so many responses. Not that that is inherntly bad.

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Sunday May 14, 2023 @11:39PM (#35943649)
I mean that's great and all but the racist point on the invention of medicine is not only unverifiable, it also leads immediately to the observation that white men didn't invent agriculture, the wheel, philosophy, writing. If men can be excused because they did great things, then why not other categories of people?
Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by Vt71fcAqt7 on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:10AM (#35943802)
"Invention of medicine" was just shorthand for "men contributed the most to medecine and invented modern medicine/biology."

>it also leads immediately to the observation that white men didn't invent agriculture, the wheel, philosophy, writing.

Not all racists are white. leaving that aside, white racists would say that white men perfected agriculture, the wheel, philosophy ect.

>If men can be excused because they did great things, then why not other categories of people?

Based on the point I made above, they might say that men are excused because they are continualy useful, while other races did great things but only because white people were not there to do it first becasue they were not yet civilized, but once they became civilized then there is no need for for others. (Although there is a few hundred year gap between the begining of western European civilization and the start of major European advancements, which I would put at about 1500, but you can imagine such an arguemt or similar argument in any case.)

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by tomlockwood on Monday May 15, 2023 @12:36AM (#35943923)
> white racists would say that white men perfected agriculture, the wheel, philosophy ect.

Not true, some racists consider Greeks to be "white" or "european" or "western".

> Based on the point I made above, they might say that men are excused because they are continualy useful,

Actually, no. For a long time the "white-est" people in the world were barbarians from the north with immodest women and sickly-pale skin.

There's also the so-called "dark ages" when Islamic science was doing fine and Europe was languishing.

Arabic numerals, anyone?

Re:The 1% of the population accountable for 63 % of all viol... by smith002 on Monday May 15, 2023 @09:41AM (#35947994)
The major objection to refugee caravans is they’re almost entirely fighting age males, it’s pretty much implied anti immigrant means anti male immigrant.