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Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by xp84 on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:25PM (#34815004)
It is so hilarious how all of a sudden we're supposed to be afraid of "spy balloons," despite the fact that this is a free country and if anyone actually wanted to spy on any given place in North America, they could literally just send an actual spy, he could fly in on a commercial jet, rent a car and just drive over to the interesting place, and look around. Add in a $500 drone and your spy could get a heck of a lot closer look at most things from the comfort of a nearby parked car. This balloon stuff seems incredibly unlikely to be anything.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by partiallypro on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:39PM (#34815094)
You can't be serious. Spy balloons are definitely happening, just because not every balloon is one doesn't mean it's not so. You can't send a spy and have them fly over nuclear silos or collect transmission date from above them, etc. You can't send a spy to the middle of the ocean above US assets in international waters either. Pretty silly comment. Spying is multi-facet. It's like saying spy satellites aren't real because you could just hire a crop duster and hook up equipment to their plane. Comically wrong.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by hindsightbias on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:10AM (#34815305)
Comically wrong. You can drive by or fly over nuclear silos any time. They’re right off the highways and county roads. None of them are in restricted or prohibited airspace. You can rent an apartment in Great Falls and capture 1000X more sigint than a silly troll balloon. They have internet there too.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by californical on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:22AM (#34815373)
They may not be restricted or prohibited, but it’s still illegal to gather information about them for the purpose of spying
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by justsomehnguy on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:31AM (#34815428)
Hey, psst, hey!

Just don't tell anyone what you are gathering for the purpose of spying. Just tell (if anyone would be bothered enough) what you are a blogg^W influencer and making a new TikTok.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by seanmcdirmid on Thursday February 16, 2023 @01:24AM (#34815719)
In china many tourist areas overlook navy bases. If a foreign tourist just points their camera in that direction, they are in for a rough time, perhaps even a couple of years in prison if they want to retaliate for something like the detaining of huawei CEO’s daughter. America is pretty benign in comparison
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by tablespoon on Thursday February 16, 2023 @10:09AM (#34819653)
> Just don't tell anyone what you are gathering for the purpose of spying. Just tell (if anyone would be bothered enough) what you are a blogg^W influencer and making a new TikTok.

Yeah, like a Chinese national renting an apartment in some weird place and frequently "hiking" near missile silos with a bunch of unusual electronics isn't going to attract unwanted attention. The FBI would be totally fooled by your influencer ruse.

You know what's so great about spy baloons? They're things not people. Using them doesn't put any of your people at risk. That's, like, a consideration.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by partiallypro on Thursday February 16, 2023 @11:49AM (#34821200)
It literally is restricted and prohibited; this poster is just wrong. They might be surprised to know there are even drone restrictions over certain areas, any commercial drone pilot knows this and it's part of their test for certification. Some drones will even disengage if they are within a certain geofence, or you'll just go to jail.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by NoPicklez on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:45AM (#34815510)
I think their overall point is that, there are multiple ways to skin a cat and just because it doesn't look nefarious doesn't mean it isn't.

If a balloon looks innocuous, then it might be a great tool to do something with.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by chucksta on Thursday February 16, 2023 @09:09AM (#34818810)
Good point, like birds aren't real https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birds_Aren%27t_Real
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by partiallypro on Thursday February 16, 2023 @11:46AM (#34821154)
Every nuclear power plant has airspace restrictions, so I don't even know what you're talking about.

https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/where_can_i_fly/airs...

Spy balloons (and drones) are 100000% a thing. I think it's laughable that you can even try to argue otherwise.

As to why the US suddenly cares publicly, probably mostly political because the Chinese balloon was spotted by a civilian and there was a public outcry. That doesn't mean they aren't happening, nor that the governments across the world aren't aware of them.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40054/adversary-drones...

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by hindsightbias on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:32PM (#34821978)
> power plant

you're own link: "Drones are prohibited.. from the ground up to 400 feet above ground level"

This, charitably, is called moving the goal posts. I fly over/near a nuclear plant every couple of months on my way somewhere. I am not a drone. Pilots fly over silo fields and nuclear plants all day, every day.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by mrguyorama on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:07PM (#34825112)
Your quote from their link is a boilerplate minimum restriction that applies when no further restriction is provided. Most places, especially "sensitive" ones have even stricter limitations. Go ahead and try and fly a drone 500 ft above a military airbase, you'll meet some fun people and have plenty of free time to pick up a new hobby.

Nuclear silos are generally not that sensitive, because they are all 60 years old and everyone can identify them on satellite imaging, but if you fly a drone near one, you will definitely be surveilled by some security, whether you know it or not.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by partiallypro on Thursday February 16, 2023 @05:47PM (#34827671)
If you bothered to read it's a ~3-mile radius from the plant, but sure. If you want to test your theory, go ahead and buy a drone and try flying it only 300ft above a nuclear power plant. As soon as you're found out, you'll promptly be arrested (if your drone doesn't already automatically shut off due to GPS geofencing).
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Friday February 17, 2023 @03:15AM (#34832172)
Can you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes, and please not post in the flamewar style?

The HN guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Friday February 17, 2023 @03:14AM (#34832168)
Can you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes? The HN guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here.

You did it repeatedly in this thread, and unfortunately have been doing it elsewhere too—and we've had to warn you about this kind of thing more than once before. When accounts behave this way, we end up having to ban them. I don't want to ban you, so if you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by thomasjudge on Thursday February 16, 2023 @09:33PM (#34829968)
I live in Great Falls, can confirm
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Friday February 17, 2023 @03:14AM (#34832162)
Can you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes? The HN guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Edit: it looks like you've been posting unsubstantive and/or flamebait comments repeatedly. We end up having to ban that sort of account because it's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. I don't want to ban you, so it would be good if you'd fix this going forward.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by somenameforme on Thursday February 16, 2023 @01:44AM (#34815797)
Most of these balloons were large to massive. The one we're still sticking to the "spy balloon" story on was about 90 feet in size, and was estimated to have capabilities similar to a spy satellite. [1] So you can send some giant object which will inevitably be detected, and cause a conflict, or you can keep using your already present surveillance satellites to do the exact same thing, 'invisibly.' What, exactly, is supposed to be the logic here?

I also find our own reaction somewhat telling. It seems difficult to imagine that $800 billion a year isn't enough to find some way to recover a balloon. Yet we chose to destroy it, and send the debris for a swim on top of it. Whatever's left of the device is almost certainly completely wasted. Would you want to do this if you believe there might be evidence of surreptitious behavior, potentially to try to compromise high security locations, on that balloon? Or would you deploy signal jamming technology and work to recover the balloon intact?

Our reaction just feels like a meme. I can't help but hear this song [2] playing in the background as I envision an F-22 making its flyby locking on $400k missiles to bring down a balloon.

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/us/politics/chinese-spy-b...

[2] - https://youtu.be/5uPoDNEn3I0?t=8

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by Fatnino on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:00AM (#34816176)
Satellite orbits are pretty easy to predict. You can do your secret stuff when you know there is a gap in coverage and then throw a tarp over it when they are passing overhead. A balloon screws this up. It can go anywhere anytime. Now you need to keep the tarp in place for longer stretches of time and it gets annoying.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by postalrat on Thursday February 16, 2023 @08:18AM (#34818237)
If that balloon could go anywhere anytime then why can't I?
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by mrguyorama on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:10PM (#34825150)
Are you willing to take an AIM-9X to the face? Because if you are willing to be intercepted you can go a lot of places. At least, once.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by somenameforme on Friday February 17, 2023 @12:21AM (#34831095)
I believe that is the point he was making. 90 foot balloons aren't exactly discrete and if they were ever used for spying, their shelf life would be extremely low with a high probability of ending up being seized by whoever you were spying on, on top of it. Maybe you have some self detonation mechanism on board, but now you also are sending something which could be perceived to be a weapon. It's just really not a logical concept, at all.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by Fatnino on Friday February 17, 2023 @04:40AM (#34832727)
Most countries can't hit something hanging out at 60000 feet. The US can, but it can also blow up satellites.

So if you can send satellites over unmolested, maybe you also try with a huge-ass balloon. It's way cheaper. Worth a shot.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by leftbit on Thursday February 16, 2023 @02:51AM (#34816131)
Just wondering - balloons aren't exactly a novel technology. And they are comparatively cheap to produce.

So if spy balloons were considered a real threat - why isn't there a more cost efficient way to take them down?

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by gowld on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:03PM (#34825041)
The new balloons fly extremely high, up to 80K feet, near the edge of space, where planes cannot reach. And planes that can reach, can't slow down enough to reach out and grab an object.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by hulitu on Thursday February 16, 2023 @05:54AM (#34817177)
> You can't be serious. Spy balloons are definitely happening,

Yes. It is funny how, after US, everybody started seeing one.

Be alert...

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by partiallypro on Thursday February 16, 2023 @11:57AM (#34821330)
We've known about them and spy drones for ages, it's not new, it's just the news cycle. Saying they aren't real (or are some grand political distraction) because they are suddenly in the news cycle is just ignorant.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Friday February 17, 2023 @03:13AM (#34832160)
Can you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes, and please not post in the flamewar style?

The HN guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by woodruffw on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:31PM (#34815045)
There’s an element of overreaction here (when isn’t there?), but this also isn’t true: you can’t exactly drive onto missile bases in Montana and take pictures without causing significant problems.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by Eji1700 on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:31PM (#34815038)
You can mount a lot more equipment a lot higher up on a balloon, and it can float places you can't legally drive.

The, in theory, purpose of such a balloon is going to be something like satellite surveillance but low and in the are long enough to use certain types of sensors that would not work that high up, or that can now penetrate much further into the ground.

Not that I really think there's much to be worried about, as even if this is the case its more "nations who's only war will be miserable nuclear fire pretending there's a chance it could be others", but there is absolutely a plausible reason for these.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by selcuka on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:34PM (#34815068)
The song "99 Luftballons" is becoming a reality after 40 years.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by carabiner on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:32PM (#34815054)
Can I drive into Area 51?
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by oneoff786 on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:27PM (#34815016)
The places you can casually drive around are no the places you would want to target with a spy balloon.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by Consultant32452 on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:46PM (#34815141)
FYI, here's a 2022 article talking about the US military's budget to build and spy with balloons. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/05/u-s-militarys-newes...
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by carabiner on Wednesday February 15, 2023 @11:48PM (#34815165)
You can't drive into Area 51. Spy balloons can loiter and be hard to detect due to a low radar cross section, unlike satellites which fly over on set schedules. Consumer drones cannot fly high, are easy to detect, and have very limited endurance.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by jykim256 on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:06AM (#34815283)
Spy balloons like the one we shot down have incredibly large radar cross sections; they just get deleted by radar algorithms because they move so slowly.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by mumumu on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:33AM (#34815444)
They have smaller cross section than many stealth jets:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/why-shooting-down-chin...

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by mrexroad on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:15PM (#34825247)
From the article, a good explanation for why recent incidents used missiles rather than the cannons (among other reasons):

“In 1998, a rogue weather balloon from Canada deployed to measure ozone levels accidentally drifted away. BBC reported at the time that the airship was the size of a 25-story building and was operating at an altitude between 27,000 and 37,000 feet, so admittedly much lower than China’s balloon is now. The incursion prompted attempts from Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States to shoot it down, with two Canadian Air Force CF-18 Hornet fighters firing more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition from their own Vulcan cannons into the balloon off the coast of Newfoundland. That balloon took days to come down, at one point even gaining altitude and drifting across Canada and then out over the Atlantic Ocean, which made for a problematic situation for regional air traffic.”

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by xp84 on Tuesday February 21, 2023 @01:41PM (#34884969)
Genuine question: Were any of these balloons floating over something restricted like that?

The point I should have said was "Were any of these flying over a restricted area that couldn't have been easily checked out by a drone? If not this seems like an unlikely spy mission, or at best a poorly-planned one."

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by NoPicklez on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:49AM (#34815541)
I dare say if spy balloons became a real thing (speculating), there would be plenty of people saying "Wow they can't even detect a balloon, how can we be confident they find drones or stop people driving near military bases".

There's an argument on both sides.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by UncleOxidant on Thursday February 16, 2023 @12:13PM (#34821629)
60,000 feet is about 11 miles. You could get closer to a lot of interesting sites by driving around in an RV full of listening equipment + launch small (difficult to detect) drones to get even closer.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by philistine on Thursday February 16, 2023 @02:17PM (#34824208)
Can you do your plan without any human on foreign soil? We're dealing with a repressive communist regime who fears its own citizens. If there's a technological solution that doesn't involve a human element.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by UncleOxidant on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:00PM (#34824980)
If it was the other way around - US trying to drive an RV around China to gather intel - it would be problematic. But sending someone(s) over here to drive an RV around seems pretty easy to pull off.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by philistine on Friday February 17, 2023 @01:27PM (#34838400)
I wasn’t clear enough. Communist China is scared of its own spies. Doesn’t trust them. If they can replace them with convoluted Rude Goldberg esque flying balloons, they will.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by xp84 on Tuesday February 21, 2023 @01:43PM (#34885002)
This is an interesting take. I never considered the fear of defection that an actor like China might have.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by psyfi on Thursday February 16, 2023 @03:34PM (#34825592)
Next: cracking down on mail pigeon carrying microfilms
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Friday February 17, 2023 @03:13AM (#34832158)
Can you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes? The site guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by xp84 on Tuesday February 21, 2023 @01:34PM (#34884873)
Criticism taken. I apologize.
Re:The US Air Force may have shot down an amateur radio pico... by dang on Thursday February 23, 2023 @04:10PM (#34916506)
Appreciated!