I agree with you that this is the killer app to unlock the metaverse. When everyone can create their own spaces usage will explode like Facebook or YouTube. What makes you think he's too early though? As long as he can keep funding until that point he'll win when it happens surely?

State of art AI is progressing in that direction but we are still years away from creating a fleshed out world from prompt. Zuck funneled billions intro VR chart/Unity clone with little to show. It was too early.

> Zuck was too early.

Who will be best positioned when these killer apps start coming out? Meta has like 90% headset market share, and while Apple may release something "cool" with AR it's unlikely to be a direct threat. Microsoft is cranking along with WMR and Hololens, but they aren't leading innovation or really trying to. Valve has good hardware but can't compete with Meta due to their scale and capital.

Nobody is putting money into VR like Meta. Zuck is betting the company, and I'd probably do the same in his place. FB/IG print money but growth is substantially dead and long term prospects are dim.

> Who will be best positioned when these killer apps start coming out?

Hopefully everyone. Use OpenXR as a base and release on every headset.

You can release on every headset but 90% of your market is Oculus and they'll collect 15-30% commission on every sale.

90% of a nascent market is not a huge lead

— not sent from my blackberry.

> and while Apple may release something "cool" with AR it's unlikely to be a direct threat

2nd (or 5th) mover advantage?

Advantage of moving when the path has been revealed I think.

I'm sure Nokia will take over the market again, any minute now... any minute now...

>Valve has good hardware but can't compete with Meta due to their scale and capital.

Valve is no startup but should capital ever be the limiting factor, venture capital should be ready to finance the expansion.

However, Valve has the Instagram problem. If people don't pay for their worlds but accept them filled with branded artifacts, then Meta has that infrastructure and Valve does not.

Apple's entrance into the advertising market could be seen as a preparation for their VR products, like their gaming platform (similar to Netflix). As Meta, I wouldn't bet that Apple just creates an AR device.

Microsoft on the other hand needs a VR headset for their Xbox because Sony has one. They are already cooperating with Meta on the business headset. To me, this suggests that MS will also cooperates with Meta on the gaming headset.

If Apple manages to sell as many headsets as they sell phones then gaming consoles are dwarfed. When all is said and done, I would love to see a documentary about Sony's strategic meetings. How can they align themselves to stay relevant?

I don't think current market share is an indicator of future market share here, here innovation and non-predictable stuff could change things completely. VR is not yet popular so the potential market was not tested yet. I own Meta devices and all I can say is they have great technologies from the Hardware side. Can also say that Unity is working towards a great SDK.

In B2B: how many companies use VR headsets for meetings?

If worlds can be built from a prompt, worlds will be worthless.

Conversations with other real humans can only be built from prompts, they're not worthless.

I assume it will end up with a power-law distribution just like poetry and literature, most seen as low-value, a few as generation-defining.

Then the value is not in the created world, but in the curation.

It's going to be like those scenes in Star Trek: TNG when they give instructions to the holodeck.

> Prompt based world building

bonus:

- prompt based story for RPGs

- prompt based dungeons challenges

- synthetic voice acting for NPCs

- prompt based outfits/face for story characters

We're so much closer to these things now, the progress in the last few years has been incredible.

Retirement homes in 40 years are just going to be warehouses full of pods with people in them enjoying fulldive through infinite universes.

When you run out of money it fills with carbon dioxide, waits an hour, then dumps your body and is ready for the next one.

The problem with Meta's vision for Metaverse isn't being early, it's being bland and technically uninspired.

VRChat, and before it Second Life, are both better placed on the same journey.

Heck, even Second Life running in a browser in 2010 has a better value proposition than Meta's vision, even if the frame rate was bad enough that I recon it would cause almost universal nausea in VR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOi11vq4bxU