The pessimist (AKA Stallman) in me is thinking that vendors like Apple and Microsoft are going to use things like their Security processors to force people to buy new hardware. Software optimizations can potentially keep older hardware going for a lot longer, but by having an arbitrary security chip requirement - folks can be forced to purchase new hardware every few years as older model support is dropped. We are already seeing this in Windows 11.
While we will not have a year of the Linux desktop, the ability for the speed optimizations to be more open to all people could be a sizable win for the platform. Provided the ability to do this isn't locked down.
This means that Samsung’s N3P (with GAAFET) will match their density and release timeline…
https://www.notebookcheck.net/TSMC-reportedly-ditches-its-N3...
https://www.semianalysis.com/p/tsmcs-3nm-conundrum-does-it-e...
https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/7048/n3e-replaces-n3-comes-in...
Even TSMC is hitting diminishing returns, and costs are spiraling faster than density - N3 alone is 50% more expensive than N5, both in wafer and validation/tapeout costs, and remember that’s the fake N3 now and the real N3E will undoubtedly be even more expensive.
Rumors are that all 10 of TSMC’s top-10 customers have cut their orders next year and they have 50% less utilization than expected, which is really bad for the node economics. So TSMC may finally have found the point at which costs have spiraled past consumers’ willingness to pay.
https://www.techpowerup.com/302774/top-10-tsmc-customers-sai...
IE. N7 was much more expensive when it first launched than compared to now? And TSMC prices its wafers based on supply and demand so eventually, N7 will become very cheap.
Also, it's not a surprise that the top 10 TSMC customers have ordered less. It probably has way more to do with a massive inventory of unsold phones and computers, chip glut, and lower projected consumer demand. N3 pricing wouldn't make an impact in 2023.
I'm a software guy so excuse my ignorance, but isn't 30% higher density a pretty big deal? Why is N3 worse than expected? Were expectations sky high and expectations weren't hit, or is 30% density increase not as big of a deal as it sounds to me.
I think a lot of people may not understand how density increases relate to performance improvements
While there are still other benefits to gain from a new node and increased density (despite the cost increase), if your cost per transistor goes up, it limits where you might want to use the new node (particularly in value sensitive parts of the market).
There's been a long-term trend towards this point - the cost of a new node (the blend of developing it, implementing a design in it, and cost per transistor) has been spiralling up for like a decade+. These are the same pressures that has caused the consolidation around Intel/TSMC/Samsung(ish) in the bleeding edge.