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Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by cowsandmilk on Monday December 05, 2022 @05:15AM (#33863639)
> it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy

That inherently means short haul trucking which parent says is feasible. With long haul trucking, I’m almost never at a location owned by the fleet operator. Pepsi and Anheuser Busch may have long haul routes that are exceptions, but you can see from the other trucks they are buying they are doing a lot of short haul trucking. They’ve both also bought BYD trucks for the same locations that have a range of 125 miles, so they don’t need the 500 mile range for their activities.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by nine_k on Monday December 05, 2022 @05:44AM (#33863851)
Short-haul EV trucking in an area eventually leads to building enough charging stations that longer-haul becomes feasible on some routes, because charging infrastructure is several areas overlaps, or almost overlaps. This fuels (heh) further expansion.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by dsfyu404ed on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:52AM (#33864954)
Who has the financial incentive to build charging stations? Both out and back and point to point operators will build charging infrastructure at their own hubs/terminals and use them for themselves.

You might see truck stops adding "public" chargers after that EV trucks become commonplace (in the same way that truck stops have fuel discount programs for member fleets) but how will EV trucks going to become commonplace if private operators using their own infrastructure are 99.99% of users?

Truck stops are thin margin. I don't see them making the investment without a need. Maybe if a big player (e.g. Swift, Walmart, etc) wants to convert to EV and kicks in a bunch of money to have their fuel partner make the capital investment. But I don't think that's going to happen until EVs are so good that it's a "profitably without nearly any doubt" type investment. You'll probably need to see a decade or two of short haul EV trucks and the accompanying refinement before that happens.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by oxplot on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:08AM (#33865095)
> Who has the financial incentive to build charging stations? Both out and back and point to point operators will build charging infrastructure at their own hubs/terminals and use them for themselves.

Don't forget that Tesla will probably end up building the most number of chargers over time. Charging is its own business with its own margins (e.g. Supercharger network). In other words, it's a source of net income for Tesla so as they build more trucks, they'll build more chargers as they've done to date with passenger cars and Superchargers.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by supportlocal4h on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:29AM (#33865345)
It's interesting that Tesla hasn't made a splashy entrance into generation.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by infecto on Monday December 05, 2022 @09:18AM (#33865930)
I think in most states within the US, generation is a hard problem to solve because of state regulation. There are some outliers (Texas) but in general its hard to just start your own power plant thats connected to the grid.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by oxplot on Monday December 05, 2022 @11:23AM (#33867616)
> There are some outliers (Texas) but in general its hard to just start your own power plant thats connected to the grid.

What if it's not and solely powered by solar (just wondering - Megachargers most likely need help from the grid).

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by supportlocal4h on Monday December 05, 2022 @11:41PM (#33876003)
Yep. Kinda like manufacturing cars is highly regulated. Or selling them without local dealerships. Or manufacturing industrial warehouse-sized batteries. Or building and operating an international network of charging stations.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by nine_k on Monday December 05, 2022 @11:13AM (#33867473)
They have a well-known solar roof program, which is generation, but home-scale.

Maybe a huge charging station which has to have large buffer batteries anyway would benefit from a large solar-panel field nearby / above it, if land price is acceptable. That would be a natural extension of the solar roof business.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by seanmcdirmid on Monday December 05, 2022 @10:51AM (#33867200)
Charging stations are cheap compared to diesel pumps, it’s not a huge logistical challenge, just some hardware, space, and an electrician to turn things on.

Chargers at truck stops can only be good for their margins, who would have to cater to people waiting for their trucks to charge on things they actually make money in (hint: it’s not diesel or electrons).

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by VBprogrammer on Monday December 05, 2022 @06:17AM (#33864100)
In the UK I imagine electric trucks will first be involved in deliveries between regional distribution centers on routes with known logistics.

I'm not convinced we'll see electric trucks take over the world in the medium term but I'm sure they'll be visible on our roads in the next 10 years, if only in limited roles.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by rippercushions on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:01AM (#33864433)
In the UK, and most of Europe for that matter, you're also not dealing with 2000 mile runs like the US.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by VBprogrammer on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:12AM (#33864542)
Sure but even within the UK there are people who "tramp" in trucks. They set off on Monday morning and don't return home until Friday night taking mixed loads between premises and sleeping in lay-bys and industrial estates each night without so much as access to a toilet. They don't do 2000 mile runs but they still cover 2000 miles in a week. It's hard to imagine acceptable infrastructure being added to make this work.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by ClumsyPilot on Wednesday December 07, 2022 @10:42AM (#33895617)
> It's hard to imagine acceptable infrastructure being added to make this work.

This is such a typical 1st nation problem,

While China battles droughts and build world's largest high-speed train network in 10 years.

Apparently maintaining toilets for truckers is beyond our capabilities.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by lnsru on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:22AM (#33864654)
Eastern Europe companies operate for months with the drivers living in the trucks. It’s brutal how money is made there. German highways are full of these trucks. 2 guys in a truck do 1000 miles every day except Sundays when the trucks can’t move on highways.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by Certhas on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:57AM (#33865009)
In 10 years we will be deep into the decarbonization of transportation.

Maybe that doesn't mean electric. But if you can get 500miles today at reasonable efficiency then this is one of the really really easy things to decarbonize early. All you need are truck stops with good charging every couple of hundred miles. There are other sectors that are infinitely harder and almost certainly won't work with electric barring unforeseen breakthroughs (e.g. aviation).

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by VBprogrammer on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:57AM (#33865667)
In reality most truck drivers struggle to find an overnight parking space with access to a toilet or shower. Drivers work long hours and don't have any flexibility to just drive onto the next place if they can't plug in at one station, often only having minutes left of their allowed driving hours. The availability of charging stations would need to be far better than even existing parking spots.

It might not be impossible but it's not easy by any stretch.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by Certhas on Monday December 05, 2022 @10:10AM (#33866603)
Easy is relative.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by caf on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @02:22AM (#33876807)
Seems like an opportunity to make your truck parking & charging & shower place able to be booked ahead.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by kortilla on Monday December 05, 2022 @06:18AM (#33864110)
> That inherently means short haul trucking which parent says is feasible.

The parent put a weird disqualification on it that it will only work if demanded by the state. That’s a weasel word word of saying that it will be terrible and nobody will use it unless forced.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by pclmulqdq on Monday December 05, 2022 @06:28AM (#33864189)
I don't spend huge amounts of capital for no reason, so why would a low-margin trucking company?

That said, if the price of diesel keeps up, there is a chance that Tesla trucks plus all the charging infrastructure will be worth it economically for short haul fleets.

I'm honestly surprised they didn't try to launch a truck in Europe first, it seems like a better market.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by aperson_hello on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:15AM (#33864581)
Rough math on this: $5/gallon diesel with 5mpg = $1/mile fuel cost. 1.7kwh/mile * $0.1/kwh = $0.17/mile. $0.83/mile savings * 400 miles/day * 250 days a year = $83,000/year in fuel savings.

I suspect that charging infrastructure is going to be expensive, but cheap enough that if an operator has multiple trucks, the payback will be pretty fast and the low margins will incentive faster adoption for short haul trucking. Long haul is another beast entirely (don't hold your breath for that industry to come around before well into the 2030s), but short haul should eat this up!

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by bluGill on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:06AM (#33865074)
Just in fuel savings over the life of a truck that pays for those whole truck. Not the difference, the entire cost of the truck. Margins in trucking are too tight to ignore that much money.

Getting charging in place is critical, but nobody in trucking can afford to ignore that.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by bombcar on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:16AM (#33865186)
There’s also potentially cheaper maintenance - no engine to keep running, and less brake usage.

That could add up. Companies will be looking at these even if they just buy one to use as a yard shunter at first.

If the economics are there it’ll take off like wildfire.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by bluGill on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @08:56AM (#33879760)
A little cheaper, but in the parts that are different between an EV and a ICE are very reliable. You miss oil changes, but most routine maintenance is still needed (though few people rotate their tires as often as they should)
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by aperson_hello on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @07:35PM (#33889174)
Mostly brake maintenance! But that's rounding error. Most of the savings is fuel.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by legolas2412 on Monday December 05, 2022 @11:08AM (#33867420)
0.1$/kwhr? Superchargers now cost up to 0.5$/kwhr. These cost money to build.

https://electrek.co/2022/09/28/tesla-hikes-supercharger-pric...

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by aperson_hello on Monday December 05, 2022 @10:22PM (#33875483)
That's in CA though - and at retail pricing. I suspect most customers will have captive chargers and will be running at industrial rates (so even less than $0.1/kwh).
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by ceejayoz on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:17AM (#33864602)
> I don't spend huge amounts of capital for no reason, so why would a low-margin trucking company?

Setting aside the cost of diesel for a moment, trucking companies didn't build the entire gasoline infrastructure, either.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by pclmulqdq on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:43AM (#33864855)
They will have to build some electric infrastructure, the way most EV owners do. The best time to charge a short-haul truck is while it is waiting to be loaded or while it is parked overnight, and both of those will need the operator to own chargers.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by w0m on Monday December 05, 2022 @09:00AM (#33865707)
Operator owning charger also means markedly cheaper rates. .36c vs .08c per kwh as a crappy anecdotal reference near me. in the north east.

The $$ savings may make installing the infrastructure in loading/storage bays worthwhile.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by bluGill on Monday December 05, 2022 @08:07AM (#33865084)
Whats we have today has been built over 100 years. How fast will that convert to ev Charging is an open question.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by ceejayoz on Monday December 05, 2022 @09:12AM (#33865857)
What we have today followed adoption closely, and that existing infrastructure is ripe for adjusting as EVs become popular. Especially the larger truck/interstate stops, that have Starbucks, Subway, showers, etc.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by xenadu02 on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:23PM (#33874059)
The nice thing about EVs is we aren't starting from scratch either.

Most distribution centers, factories, etc where trucks load/unload at docks already have 3-phase power from the utility. They may need a transformer and service upgrade or for really large fleets they may even purchase 480 or KV power but when you compare it to the fuel savings its a total no-brainer. If you can save $50-80k per truck per year vs diesel that savings makes the EV trucks free. $1m for electrical upgrades? Sold. Will utilities need to perform distribution upgrades? Yes, but not all at once. They will do the upgrades as demand rises just like they do today.

As many others have noted in this thread it all comes down to your routes and logistics. For local and short-haul where the trucks return to a home base they are an excellent fit. Even if you need 50% more trucks because some of them are always on the charger as I noted the fuel savings make the trucks free so it doesn't matter at all.

It remains to be seen what the maintenance burden is. If it resembles passenger cars in any way I'd expect maintenance costs to be much lower since more components can be permanently sealed with lifetime sealed electric motors so no belts, hoses, bearings that wear out because someone couldn't be bothered to grease them, etc. Some consumables like brakes should also last much much longer.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by bluGill on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @08:55AM (#33879735)
Short haul, for sure. Long haul the truckers are independent from the place where they deliver to, and so there will be some friction - will the warehouses install charging or - like today - will they expect truckers to take care of charging.

Part of this is how the law catches up. In some states only a utility can legally sell electricity which means billing for charging is weird.

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by astrange on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:19AM (#33864627)
Europe has fairly different truck designs and already has some other (Chinese owned) companies in the market, but I couldn’t say if that’s the reason.
Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by supportlocal4h on Monday December 05, 2022 @09:00AM (#33865712)
It is pretty common for anybody with even the smallest fleet to own their own gas pump. Say a farmer with one tractor, or a flower shop with two vans.

In a world with gas stations on every corner, your argument would suggest this is foolish.

So perhaps the owners don't consider it a huge amount of capitol. Or perhaps they've found a reason or two.

But if I operated a distribution center where dozens of trucks were parked at my docks pretty much around the clock, I'd do a bit of napkin math. 1000 square meters of rooftop solar feeding giant batteries connected to 10 charging stations selling juice at $.25/kwh to trucks who are stuck here for the next hour regardless.

And I don't have to pay Exxon a penny and I wouldn't need a constant stream of tankers refilling underground tanks?

Hand me another napkin. How much battery do I need? How often would I have to replace the cables that reach from the dock to the cab? How much do those cables cost? Hmmm. Hand me another napkin...

Re:Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive by aperson_hello on Monday December 05, 2022 @07:16AM (#33864601)
I suspect that they don't need the 500 mile range for all their activities. Local deliveries probably don't need it, but mid-range routes may!