This argument is comical because it contains two components that are exactly the sort of thing that blunts perception: arrogance and absolutes.
That's why real progress is so slow even "things are obvious"—at least afterwards.
We might be able to perceive, but that doesn't mean we understand what we see. Every time I engage with medicine, I learn how little humanity actually knows, despite all the technology. We still don't understand what causes many diseases, or how to heal many wounds. How would we find completely alien life when we can't even find the cause of a disease that plagues 23% of the adult population?
Right, but we still know the diseases and wounds exist.
Where you're correct: Aliens that are only found on planets would be almost impossible to spot, and even if we look at them and see the consequences of their existence on their atmosphere we may interpret that as non biological in origin.
What you're missing: However, if they are expansionist and can build space habitats and automation of the sort we have reason to believe is possible, the question is "why are there visible stars? Why are they not all already surrounded in Dyson swarms?" which is hard to miss regardless of underlying chemistry or biology.
There's more than enough room for fanciful explanations.
Things we do not easily perceive are such that are too fast, too small, too high energy generally and, most importantly, too unexpected.
Further, you can hide in plain sight: you only have to look "unbelievable" (for example), so society will not transmit the information of your sighting.
You can hide where (nearly) no one is looking as well: deep under the ocean, far below the surface, high in the sky, etc.
Most likely, this isn't exhaustive. Places we don't know about are perfect for hiding ,-)
To suggest the universe is full of life and we simply can't see it? I don't buy it.
I think it's more likely that the signals just aren't there, because they are... Not hidden, but are too weak and crossing too grand a distance to be detected.
Citation please.
We know that our current understanding of physics is incomplete (various niggling little problems with the Standard Model, the whole Dark Matter question etc), but these are surprisingly small problems. We only know about these problems because of the extreme sensitivity of our instruments. The new physics that will eventually fill these gaps will answer fascinating questions, but won’t change anything about our understanding of life.
For example, petaquarks were first observed in the early 2000’s, and the Large Hadron Collider provided additional evidence for their existence. But they’re so unstable that they can never stick around long enough to participate in any life processes, so as far as our understanding of aliens goes they are irrelevant. Maybe they exist naturally inside the cores of neutron stars, but that’s not really a very habitable environment.
Similarly, however we resolve the apparent paradoxes in our understanding of gravity and quantum mechanics won’t matter at all to the study of life. Gravity is so weak that it is essentially irrelevant in any sort of chemical system, even when quantum mechanics is necessary to understand the fine details.
As for completeness, each revision we make to the known laws of physics is always smaller than the ones that came before. Einstein’s Relativity trumped Newton’s laws of gravity and motion, but only at high speeds or energies. At high speeds you start to notice weird effects like time dilation, but at low speeds the time dilation is so small that you would never notice it unless you knew to look for it.
Likewise, in most situations the difference between classical mechanics and quantum mechanics is unobservable. There were some edge cases where classical mechanics just couldn’t explain observable phenomena, like the photo–electric effect or phosphorescence, and all quantum mechanics does is fix those edge cases while still being able to explain all the rest of chemistry and such that we already knew about. The changes introduced by Quantum Electro–Dynamics and later Quantum Chromo–Dynamics were even subtler than that. The only easily–measured thing that QCD explains that QED couldn’t is radioactive decay, which is basically irrelevant to life. QED is much more useful to biologists because it explains how chemical reactions can release light (fireflies!), how chemicals can be sensitive to particular parts of the light spectrum (think rhodopsin in the cone cells in your eye), etc.
Because every new addition to our understanding of physics must not contradict anything we already understand (if it did then we would know it was wrong), we are asymptotically approaching a limit (as it were). That limit is either the full laws of physics, or I suppose you would say some limitation of our own minds. But why should our minds be unable to comprehend the full laws of physics? Even if those get harder and harder to learn about and understand, we have all the time in the universe to come to grips with them. Any individual can maybe hit a limit of how clever they can be, but the human race as a whole? I doubt it; we’ll crack that nut eventually. Even if humanity gives up at some point, nothing that we fail to learn could contradict what we have already figured out.
It sounds like you are saying that any possible reality could only interacti with another one using Einstein-Rosen bridges. This is far too narrow a limiting of what is possible. If it's possible at all, regardless of likelihood, that reality could be a simulation, then anything you say about the Einstein-Rosen bridge is a property of the simulation, and not a limit on reality as a whole.
Perhaps.
An idea I first heard from my brother a decade or two ago was that the Dark Energy expansion of the universe might be the waste product of all the aliens who figured out some way to trick the laws of physics into giving them free energy.
(Obviously that's more of a sci-fi plot device than science at this point, take it with the due level of seriousness).
Humans haven’t evolved additional perception, we created it. We evolved to see electromagnetic radiation in the “visible light” spectrum but we created tools to see every other part of it.
We’ve even created tools to accelerate matter to just under the speed of light, smashed atoms together and then detected the particles created from the collision.
We’ve explored our entire world, launched telescopes into space, sent probes outside of the solar system and so much more.
Can we see everything? Not even close. But our vision today is incomparably far compared to even just 150 years ago. Cave fish today see as well as cave fish 100,000 years ago.
Most advanced sensors are exceedingly rare and consequently locally far too restricted to be useful in this context. Social hurdles apply.
The most comprehensive sensor network on earth belongs to the US military. In spite of being provided extraorinary amounts of taxpayers' money for this, the resulting data isn't shared for common interests like science at all.
But the cave fish comparison is not accurate.
And if we don't understand something as basic as gravity, how can we possibly say that we can detect everything in the universe?
Also we don't understand mater fully. So we don't understand "the thing" that happens on said stage.
At the fundamental level we know shit. There's still plenty to figure out. Funny enough most of the fundamental things…
By finding out about those fundamental things it's quite possible that we discover completely unexpected aspects of our universe.
Not long ago we even didn't have the slightest clue how our sun works. A phenomenon that is central to our existence since inception.
We should be really more humble in what we assume to know about how the things around us work.
Why isn't there more "cave fish" out there? The universe we do perceive is ultra gigantic, and seemingly empty.
That’s not a very good analogy though. The ants’ answer would be “maybe across the ocean”. And since the ants lack any tech to check or be checked by other ants that would be the end of it. It’s not naivety. If there were other ants not visible to the island, they would be fundamentally underdiscoverable.
Ants are co-existing with beings beyond their reach. They effectively have alien contact for the purpose of this analogy. The absence of other ants is just because ants are not tech savvy.
Is intelligence necessarily organic matter based? Maybe not. Maybe somewhere in the universe a spontaneous self-replicating turing machine appeared. Maybe there is life on the event horizon of a black hole, or maybe a hot type of intelligence lives inside a star.
I think we can make all kinds of wild assumptions.
I completely agree.
If you go outside the frost line most of the mass of many bodies is water.
A generic outer solar system body (Europa, Ganymede, maybe even Pluto) has underground oceans. Inner solar system bodies have Goldilocks problems. Part of the Fermi paradox resolution may be that most life arises or will arise outside the frost line and those people will look at inner solar system bodies and assume out of hand that they are uninhabitable.
If there were grabby aliens of that sort (or even our sort) the real prize in our solar system would be worlds that have a good combination of ice and rock like maybe Ceres, Pluto, etc. To an interstellar species which runs on D-D fusion, it’s a fairly certain bet that you can find some ice world which can be disassembled and turned into a ‘small ringworld’ with a larger habitable area that a planet like Earth which might turn out to not be habitable at all.
And even if we're not in a "dark forest", keeping quiet is generally good social hygiene and tends to correlate with maturity. Which may be a side-effect of #2.
Given the sheer size of the universe, and the absolutely massive costs of interstellar travel, I have no idea why any alien civilization capable of visiting us would have hostile intent. Life is rare. Elements, even the rarest, are exceedingly common.
The thought that an advanced alien civilization would cross thousands of light years of distance to subjugate or destroy some naked apes is hilarious to me.
It's fascist projection, applied on a universal scale.
EDIT: To expound upon this, I'm not really trashing Dark Forest theory. I mean, it's possible. But I find it to be deeply rooted in a particular brand of game theory that is convenient. I also find it's easier to justify genocide and other such things here on earth if you pretend the entire universe is out there doing the same thing.
As such, I hold the entire theory as suspect and someone trying to justify a particular mode of human existence. This extends deeper into the trilogy as women continually are painted as too soft and emotionally empathetic to make the cold hard decisions that will kill many humans but ensure the survival of the race.
This is a Very Big PRC Thing. "Someone must make tough, manly, destructive decisions and you will suffer because of those decisions. However, they are for the Greater Good of our Nation."
It's hard to take the theory seriously when it conveniently justifies the entire history of the PRC.
For folks who've only read the first book and might be somewhat confused, this specific set of values becomes crystal clear about halfway through the second book.
Wenji is soft and empathetic?
Spoilers for Dark Forest and Death's End follow:
Cheng in Death's End makes several decisions:
1) As Swordholder she balks at transmitting the coordinates of the Trisolarians into the universe. Humanity is corralled into Australia and Mars to be starved until their numbers are more manageable by the Trisolarians. I vividly remember the flowery prose of how she just couldn't consign so many Trisolarians and Humans to death and that surely the Trisolarians would be the better choice. The prose is rather condescending of her choice. One hopes it's merely the translation.
2) One of the clues given to Cheng by Yun involves faster than light propulsion. However, it leaves behind evidence that can attract a Dark Forest attack. Cheng has Wade continue researching the propulsion but maintains the final say-so on if they proceed. The human government discovers the project and the choice is either armed conflict with antimatter bullets that'll cause a lot of death and destruction or to stand down. Her choice is to stand down and avoid conflict, this directly results in all of humanity (with the exception of her) that exists in the solar system being destroyed in the inevitable Dark Forest attack.
3) Cheng finally gets to make a "moral" decision and leave the pocket universe to try to ensure the universe cycles into another big bang. It is interesting because technically the decision is almost certain to not work: it depends on all the other residents of pocket universes also leaving and reentering the dying universe. It's almost like at the very end Liu Cixin gives this tiny concession so no one can be like, "Bro, what's your problem with women?"
There's an entire thing at the start of the book where Liu Cixin spends an inordinate amount of time describing how effeminate "peacetime" men are. It gets creepy and quickly becomes obvious it's a very personal takedown of Korean and Japanese men. Later, during the bunker era, Liu Cixin spends an equally inordinate amount of time singing the praises of tough, masculine men during a time of hard decisions made in the name of survival.
He just continually uses Cheng's empathy and (rather unbelievable after her mistakes as Swordholder if I'm being honest) naiveté to kill huge swaths of humanity. It's fairly obvious what his opinions are.
The whole message of "we need people to make tough (borderline genocidal) decisions for the survival of our people/race" is weighted so immensely, you get brow beaten by the author. It moves well beyond the norm for even military sci-fi, much less hard sci-fi.
EDIT: Also Luo's arrest after he steps down from being Swordholder for crimes against a star system that wasn't even known to be inhabited at the beginning of Death's End is ... the most blatant and ham-fisted critique of Western Woke-whatever I've ever seen. It's good, don't get me wrong. But it's just so hilariously obvious what Liu Cixin's bone to grind was.
I find it difficult to give him a pass for writing "bad things" about the Cultural Revolution when he ends up at the same fascist conclusions.
I'm not saying not to read the book. I don't actually regret reading the entire trilogy. It's got a certain nostalgia for the clumsy hard sci-fi of the 70s. However, I don't feel the trilogy does much to really extrapolate the Dark Forest theory so much as co-opt it to validate a set of ethical and political beliefs.
I completely disagree with your last statement - Dark Forest theory is just another sci-fi plot device invention... One that people have been too ready to embrace as a real theory (or even the real universe) because it sounds smart.
But these debates are why literature majors exist :-p
"Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country."
"All power to the Soviets."
I suspect most countries have some version of the same at some point in their history, encouraging their citizens to subjugate their needs/desires to those of the collective.
In the original, they’re closer to the middle of the book, in the hope that they might evade the notice of censors. Whereas in the translation (at least into English), they were moved to the beginning.
I can’t remember where I read this, but I think it may have been an interview with either Liu Cixin or the translator Ken Liu in Clarkesworld.
I remember reading a sci-fi short story (this was in the 1960s) in which a scientist started to suspect that hidden, hostile aliens were behind the tendency of productive researchers to get diverted into bureaucratic meetings. A couple of Google searches didn't produce a title. Maybe Theodore Sturgeon?
A highly advanced technological society could even fuse hydrogen to synthesize the lighter elements in our periodic table. Imagine the sheer volume of hydrogen readily available in a single nebula (many stars worth).
If a civilization could climb enormous gravity wells, Jupiter itself has 318 times the mass of the Earth, ready for space mining.
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/universe/features/exo20101028.ht...
We do have terrestrial aliens here on Earth and we are trying to chat with them. Dolphins, Gorillas, Chimps, Bonobos, Crows, Killer Whales... there is evidence for all of these species having varying degrees of language, culture, problem solving capabilities. Some of them, like Dolphins, sure seem damned close to our own capabilities with likely fully formed languages. We've been trying to decipher their language for 50 years with almost no success. With many of these species we've figured out pretty rudimentary and simplistic communication modes, but they clearly have much more complex communication structures among themselves and we've come nowhere close to deciphering them.
That alone tells you how difficult it's going to be to learn to talk with extraterrestrial aliens. Even our near cousins, we struggle to communicate with.
If we're examining our behavior as an analogy for the ET's however, it would suggest that either no one's around, or those who are around are so advanced that they don't think we're worth the effort to communicate with. Because we're definitely trying to communicate with the species we're aware of that we think have language.
Of course, many of the species on that list were only added relatively recently (Crows, for example).
This is highly doubtful. Crows don't have language anything like humans. Dolphins are a more likely candidate. I want to believe it, but I can't.
If you're not willing to believe it's possible, then you can't even begin to devise ways to determine if it's real.
> "We have hardly begun to decipher the language of the raven. Its dictionary so far contains but a few 'words'. Perhaps our analysis has been too coarse-grained to catch the meanings. Our research has been something like that of aliens from outer space who make sonograms of human vocalizations under different situations - eating, playing, loving, fighting, etc. Certain differences noted in frequency, intonation, and loudness are correlated with feelings and emotions. But human sounds convey much more, and perhaps ravens' do, too."
> Our challenge is to put ourselves in the place of those "aliens from outer space" and solve the immensely difficult problem of how to communicate with another intelligent species.
http://np.crows.net/language.html
Consider this: Crows pass knowledge down the generations. There have been studies done on crows where researchers go out and bully them. Then they observe the crows to see if they remember who bullied them. They do remember. And so do their children, and the children of their children. They clearly have a means of pretty abstract communication, because in remembering, they differentiate different people. They have a way of telling their kids "See that human? Yeah, that one. He's an asshole."
> Recent studies have proven that the crow can remember the faces of other birds and even humans. They can differentiate between those who have been kind to them and those who have caused them stress. Crows will even pass this information on to other generations.
https://birdfact.com/articles/do-crows-remember-faces
With Dolphins the existence of a language is even clearer.
In this Nova Science episode they show clear evidence of a language. They have taught the dolphins to create a new trick (something they haven't done before and haven't been taught to do by humans). They've also taught them to do tricks together. Then they put them together - "together", "create". And they did it, they came up with a new trick and they did the exact same trick together.
That absolutely requires language akin to humans.
Relevant section starts at around 8 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwhoLlu8D_g
The evidence is there, we just have to be willing to put aside our own egos and see it.
> That absolutely requires language akin to humans.
I want to believe they describe the trick like skaters describe theirs: "When I give you the signal, let's do a a 360 Ollie underflip flamingo powerslide. If we do it in sync, the walkers will give us treats".
Resolving the Fermi paradox by appealing to hypothetical aliens who are too high for us to perceive just feels like "aliens-of-the-gaps". The number of species on Earth with human intelligence (and quantity of such individuals) is orders of magnitude less than the number with ant intelligence. Aliens more advanced than us should similarly be that much less common than us. If humanity is not special, other aliens who are more equivalent to us are still missing.
I don't really find it disturbing, though. Our "best practice" to interact with other species is to try to leave them alone and watch them enjoy and live in their habitat. Makes sense that's what we're doing for the alien overlords, and I'm okay with that. Assuming aliens are around somewhere and we're using our own planet to reason by analogy, the only other two alternatives are they're going to subjugate/destroy us or they're going to eat us. Those alternatives are not so fun.
I find it interesting that so many humans assume that since we can chat with one another, aliens somehow are supposed to show up and chat with us. It's all about us. If such a thing happened, the history of massively-different cultures interacting on Earth is not a positive one.
Given the choices, I'm good.