How about getting Tesla banned from China and possibly starting an orbital war that triggers the Kessler syndrome?

Nobody is going to disclose & use anti-satellite technology over internet censorship. Hell, China isn't even aiming for bulletproof terrestrial censorship - they are happy with "good enough".

> Nobody is going to disclose & use anti-satellite technology over internet censorship.

This constellation is plausibly if not probably duel-use technology. You can bet that China is planning ways to disable it if war breaks out.

If war breaks out is the key. They'd rather keep their ability to destroy it under wraps until it becomes a matter of national security. Disclosing it or using it prematurely over a benign issue such as internet censorship would be stupid.

In the unlikely event that SpaceX tries to enter the Chinese market illegally, I wouldn't put it past China to swat one of Starlink's satellites using a conventional anti-satellite weapon (one of the sort they have already revealed), just to make a statement. But I think SpaceX won't do this anyway; they'll continue to comply with local/national laws during peacetime. It's not in their interest to stir the pot and cause diplomatic trouble.

But more to your point I agree; they won't try to destroy the constellation itself over something as petty as a few people using Starlink to circumvent their 'Great Firewall'. People sufficiently motivated to get around the firewall already can, without the need for Starlink. The CCP doesn't seem to care about it; the firewall doesn't need to be perfectly airtight to control the population, it only needs to be 'good enough'. And they wouldn't want to expose any new anti-satellite weapons they have, particularly soft-kill weapons that might be addressed after discovery with a software patch.

What would be banned are the dishes. China doesn’t need to send a missile to LEO (which would be unnecessarily costly for them).

China has previously demonstrated anti-satellite weapons multiple times just to demonstrate they have them (and maybe make sure they work), I doubt they'd be that worried about the cost to demonstrate that they mean it and are willing to use them.

Russia has done the same demonstration last year [1]. And yet they have not destroyed starlink, even though SpaceX donated many dishes to Ukraine[2].

So there still seems to be some restraint around the concept of shooting down foreign satellites. I guess it's a "mutual assured destruction" type situation: once you shoot down a satellite, you'd better be prepared to lose your own.

[1] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_188780.htm

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/elon-musk-spacex-thousands-o...

Ukraine isn't Russian territory even though Russia would like to believe differently.

On the other hand, providing free media merely to subvert the people of main land China could be seen as a company over stepping it's bounds by far.

I will bet China would sanction anyone who dealt with Starlink.

China wouldn't need anti-satellite weapons to punish Elon Musk, since he has business interests in China. Hence "ban Teslas".

Also, the backbone of Tesla's production rests on the factory in Shanghai.

I would make a joke about equating “free internet” with “proper information” but in 2022 that joke writes itself. And let’s not get started on the “without government oversight” part of your comment.

You know both Russia and China are perfectly capable of targeting and destroying satellites, yes?

They'll find it easier, both technologically and diplomatically, to target and destroy Starlink receivers (and their owners) within their borders.

> You know both Russia and China are perfectly capable of targeting and destroying satellites, yes?

This would be an act of war and open their birds to retaliatory strikes. Tracking down the receivers and levying draconian punishments on those caught would do the trick. Moreover, from the example of Chinese students abroad, it's unclear access to information would do much.

A few, yes.

Not by the thousands, short of taking ALL satellites out.

> Not by the thousands, short of taking ALL satellites out.

Kessler syndrome takes care of them all once you generate enough space junk.

China, I'm not so worried about. At this point though, Putin doesn't have a lot to lose other than his head.

Neither could destroy SpaceX satellites as fast as they can be launched. No State can.

The issue would be whether they could cause enough damage to make the orbital plane (temporarily) unusable.

The Starlink orbit is low enough that it would only be unusable for a year or so I'd imagine. Small debris will drop out quite fast.

They could absolutely destroy them fast enough. The also only need to destroy them fast enough that SpaceX finds it economically infeasible to continue launching them or blocking them themselves.

I also think that both countries could launch geosync satellites or using existing geosync satellites to just generate a shitton of noise on whatever spectrum Starlink would use.

Starlink of course won't get a license for spectrum in either country.

What mechanism do you believe they could use to destroy the hundred of satellites necessary to destroy the constellation?

They have directed energy weapons that could probably destroy individual satellites one at a time faster than they could be launched.

Who does? I think there's a [citation needed] for this claim.

China does.

The probably is there for a reason though, the exact extent of their capabilities is unclear.

Here's a citation: https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/chinas-directed-energy-weapo...

That's rumour, not a citation. Maybe I'm wrong and directed energy weapons can destroy thousands of satellites in LEO, but it's never been demonstrated by any nation.

It's a citation that they have them, which is all I claimed definitively. If I could cite the part of the statement after "probably", there wouldn't be a "probably" there.

I would not call it rumors. If you'd like a more authoritative citation, here is a DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency, i.e. US military) report cited in the article I cited above: https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_Powe...

Go read page 24. It doesn’t say what you are claiming.

Page 24 definitely doesn't, it's about Russia. Page 17 on the other hand

> During the past two decades, Chinese defense research has proposed the development of several reversible and nonreversible counterspace DEWs for reversible dazzling of electro-optical sensors and even potentially destroying satellite components. China has multiple ground-based laser weapons of varying power levels to disrupt, degrade, or damage satellites that include a current limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors. By the mid- to late-2020s, China may field higher power systems that extend the threat to the structures of nonoptical satellites.

The discussion of current capabilities is primarily about optical satellites (though it can be read to include other components), but it probably applies to giant sensitive phased array antennas too.

Are those protected from EMP that can kill scores at once?

The point of Starship is to launch hundreds at once, several times a week if it goes as planned (that's a few years away.) Forget Mars colonization, the only practical use for such a booster is to fight a war in LEO.

There's currently more than 3,000 satellites in the constellation. Killing scores or even hundreds isn't enough. The only known EMP weapons that could really impact the constellation is nuclear, and at that point, knocking out Starlink is the least of our worries.

I think a laser mounted on one of their satellites could get the job done. Their militaries may even have that already.

There are much easier, and more discrete ways for users to bypass content filters than installing a giant, radiation emitting antennae on your roof.

Because you can't give free internet to China or Russia to give people proper information without government oversight. It's not going to happen without the co-operation of these governments who will actively prevent you from doing that. That's basically why.

That's not even mentioning the sanctions on Western technology entering Russia at the moment.

I mean, they kind of are, right? If the Chinese and Russian people came up with their own gear to receive/send compatible signals with the signal, then they could use it. Of course, authorized accounts would probably be problematic. Getting Starlink branded gear to use will also be hard in those countries.

No, they could not use it. I'm pretty sure the satellites turn off their transmitters and receivers when passing over unlicensed countries (if for no other reason than to save power).

They definitely turn off when passing over areas where there are radio telescopes, which was a bigger problem to astronomers than light reflections

that's just a software update though if Starlink so chooses to do so. they cost like $0.50 a piece, so if Putin wants to spend money effort to take a couple out to prove whatever point, then it costs them much much more than it does starlink. and at the rate they are getting launched, it won't be a very long lasting worthless accomplishment

They make a loss on the terminals.

I'm not worried about Starlink's bottom line. I'm just guessing that China would want Chinese hardware. Not sure what type of export restrictions this type of hardware would have applied to it related to these 2 countries.

I was just implying that I'm guessing getting actual Starlink hardware through legit channels is probably not something that will be available.

Um, encryption?

What's the end-to-end level of starlink vis-a-vis encryption? I have to imagine it's pretty good.

In Soviet Russia, encryption breaks you!

I'm sure the backdoor master key "everyone" is pushing for would find a practical use in this situation

Satellite terminals can become targets as soon as they turn on their uplink transmitter (and possibly even in receive-only mode unless their IF oscillator is perfectly shielded, which it probably isn't). This is why Musk tweeted to Ukrainian users "Turn on Starlink only when needed and place antenna as far away from people as possible." [0]

[0] https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-is-using-elon-musks-starlink-f...

Valid comments here but with the very recent developments on satellite connections direct to mobile phones, how long until you don't need a giant satellite? It may be sooner than we think. Certainly there are other enforcement mechanisms but the trend towards the internet becoming a ubiquitous utility is still making a lot of progress and this is the next paradigm shift.

Indeed. Without veering of into another discussion, other enforcement includes apps and phone monitoring. This isn't limited to other apps on a phone but firmware, input methods, even simply switching IPs.

As well as VPNs existing, international sim cards also 'bypass' internet filtering. Absolute restriction of the internet is not the goal. The goal is to not allow anything approaching a critical mass to do so, especially less technically literate who would not seek out VPNs etc unless they were marketed to or directly facilitated. The next is to all but remove the browser, email is truly dead having never been a big thing socially, with a domestic app orientated landscape; mobile penetration is far beyond lap/desktop.

This doesn't make it better, but it is how it is.

It's far more straightforward to use a VPN. And as much as a VPN might or might not stick out depending on it and how it's used, procuring and using a Starling dish would far more.

Incidentally, HN is blocked in China. Am using a VPN.

Practical reasons?

The government would restrict or ban import or sale of the hardware. They'd make them illegal and use possession of one as a reason to throw the owner in jail.

You think the USG that funded SpaceX/Starlink isn't going to have control over it...?

While Starlink was marketed as a boon to rural democratic internet access, those promises have been walked back and its pretty clear that it the limited bandwidth is primarily intended to increase the Pentagon/ICs communications capabilities in the field, much like the Internet itself.

The USG did not fund a swarm of satellites so that American (nor Russian, nor Chinese) farmers can watch Netflix.

Why wouldn't the Pentagon want to blanket China with US propaganda?

Sure, but how do you propose to "blanket" China with Starlink modems?

I'm sure there are plenty of ingenious smugglers in China.

You could, but what difference would it make? You'd only be able to get them to relatively few people, and the "Great Firewall" is already porous enough to let those with sufficient motivation slip through. China doesn't care about that; so long as their firewall still works for most people then it still works for population control.

Most of the things they smuggle probably aren't intended to go on your roof where all the neighbors can see, though.

Hey, if that's a cause you believe in, how about you start a non-profit to do it? You could really help some people.

what about providing 'proper' information without corporate oversight to people in the USA?

They can't without breaking international law.

Yeah. Because there is 'proper' information without government oversight in the West.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613795/Joe-Biden-...