News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by fishtoaster on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:31PM (#29885922)
Any reason to believe that this is an instance of Hollywood Accounting? At a glance, wikipedia says the film cost $190m, which seems reasonable for a film like this, and only received $124.5m in box office sales. Conversely, wikipedia lists Harry Potter OotP as a "150–200 million" budget on $942m in box office sales.

It's certainly possible this is a case of Hollywood Accounting, but is there any particular reason we think it is, vs just a film losing a lot of money normally?

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by Latty on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:34PM (#29885955)
Quoting box office sales while ignoring the fact this was released simultaneously for streaming really doesn't tell the full story.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by 1123581321 on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @12:14AM (#29887861)
You can get a rough idea by using Netflix’ impact value figure, the formula of which isn’t public but appears to be about seven times the number who watched at least two minutes of the title in the first month. (This is based on the leaked documents about Squid Game’s performance, and again, the real formula is surely more complicated. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/netflixs-squid-game-is-repor...)

Matrix was viewed about 3 million times in its opening week. Assuming it doubles that over the first month, that’d be 6M * 7 or an impact value of $42MM. If you want to be generous, multiply again by a number to account for HBO Max’s smaller size compared to Netflix, or to account for Max’s strategic importance to Warner. Either way, the contribution is significant but not enough to make Matrix 4 a hit relative to its budget.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by leereeves on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @04:01AM (#29889165)
What exactly is impact value? That article didn't explain it very well.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by 1123581321 on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @05:02AM (#29889555)
Impact value is an attempt to measure the title’s contribution to streaming revenue through signups and retention.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by LegitShady on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:05PM (#29886299)
Do they suddenly make more money streaming? Do you have any evidence people joined a streaming platform to watch it?

This thing bombed everywhere. People with existing subscriptions watching it doesn't make it any. More profitable to Warner Bros

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by PostOnce on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:26PM (#29886524)
More money isn't just new subscriptions, it's also revenue from existing subscriptions (which can be cancelled any time).

By this logic, platforms will never need new content ever in order to keep existing subscribers happy.

It's not just new subscriptions, it's also retention: do people stay subscribed to platform X because movies like The Matrix Resurrections are on the platform?

It'd be rather hard to measure for a single film, it's the aggregate of platform content that dictates retention, I would think.

If the answer is yes, then the platforms will continue to pay companies like WB to film "box office bombs".

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by mbreese on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:34PM (#29886596)
I watched the movie via HBO Max. I’m sure that on one set of calculations (HBO), a good chunk of my monthly fee is assigned to the Matrix Resurrections account. But on another set of calculations (Warner Bros), I’m a negative because I would have likely gone to see it in a theater.

Nevermind that they are the same company.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by bentcorner on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:13PM (#29886372)
While I can't answer your question, just using a calculation like "box office receipts" - "movie making expense" is surely disingenuous. In that case every single direct-to-netflix release would be considered a money loser.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by lilyball on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:20PM (#29886460)
They had a deal for home streaming simultaneously with the box office release. This means that yes it is highly likely that far more people streamed this movie than movies that do theater-exclusive releases.

And people with existing subscriptions don’t matter, because Warner Bros isn’t getting subscription money directly, they’re getting money from deals with subscription services.

Edit: HBO is owned by Warner. So even if they don’t do accounting such that HBO pays Warner but just track subscription revenue directly, it still doesn’t matter. Retaining subscribers is hugely important, not just getting brand new subscriptions. It does make it a lot harder to compare box office receipts though.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by tehwebguy on Monday January 10, 2022 @10:35PM (#29887144)
The point isn’t that there are 2 revenue streams instead of 1, is that they own it forever and there will be unlimited ways to make money on it over a long enough timeline.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by 1123581321 on Monday January 10, 2022 @11:56PM (#29887745)
For a film, the present value of the unlimited future revenue is only a single digit multiple of its short term box office. Perhaps low doubles given the proportion of release attention accumulated on HBO Max.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by samsin on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:29PM (#29886553)
I'm not sure the specific licensing agreement between HBO and Warner Bros, but it's likely they agreed upon a flat fee with additional $ per viewer. I don't think these deals would ever hinge solely on how many new subscribers joined the platform specifically to view that movie, which would be difficult to prove anyway.

From HBO's perspective, they also benefit from having a 'blockbuster' in their catalogue since it signals to potential subscribers that they're a platform you can expect to view high-budget movies.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by mason55 on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:34PM (#29886595)
HBO is owned by Warner
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by chipotle_coyote on Monday January 10, 2022 @10:23PM (#29887051)
That doesn't mean that there isn't a contract between HBO and Warner Studios involved for this, as crazy as it sounds. It doesn't mean that there definitively is one, either -- but depending on how the different divisions are structured, HBO may well be paying Warner for the streaming rights.

My impression is that this sort of deal -- where the production arm may well shop around a product to different networks/services, even if the parent company actually owns one -- is becoming less common as nearly everyone's starting their own streaming service, but AFAIK it still happens, particularly for movies.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by doctornoble on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:20PM (#29886448)
Anecdotally I did. Well for that and Dune - and I’ll probably keep it, I was surprised and impressed with the selection.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by philistine on Monday January 10, 2022 @11:41PM (#29887640)
HBO Max is not a global service. There is a ton of money to be made selling the movie to other streaming services.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by pessimizer on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:48PM (#29886103)
> wikipedia says the film cost $190m, which seems reasonable for a film like this

And you can add half of that again for the marketing budget.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by zizee on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:55PM (#29886791)
I have always assumed those numbers are fudged, and included marketing.

I don't really know much about the industry, or what it take to make a film like this, but $100m is enough to pay 1000 people 100k. Did this film take that many people, that long to make?

I would imagine CGI is reducing a lot of expensive things (like blowing up aircraft, and expensive location shoots).

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by sandworm101 on Monday January 10, 2022 @10:21PM (#29887033)
Yes. And the equipment. And the studio spaces. And the a-list actors/dir3ctors/producers who took home many millions each. 200million was once an insane budget (Waterworld) but with movies these day grossing into the billions (Endgame et al) 200mil is no longer a stretch.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by zizee on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @12:48AM (#29888051)
Well, the total cost was reported as $190 million, so after the 1000 people get 100k, there is still 90mil to account for...

I'm probably not up with the times, but I don't really see many actors in that film that would be classed as A-list (although the definition of that is somewhat loose).

I really like Keanu, and he seems like a great guy, but I don't think he getting paid $20 million a film, although his popularity seems on the rise again (but perhaps that is just on Reddit). He was reportedly paid 2.5mil for some of the John Wick films, and you'd have to imagine he is the top paid in this latest matrix film.

Regardless, I have already said I don't know much about the industry, and I haven't even seen the film, so it is all just speculation on my end. However, I'm willing to bet that a significant percentage of the reported spend went to subsidiaries charging healthy margins, which is common in the industry to help cut into the % of profits the studio would have to share with people as part of their contracts.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by sandworm101 on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @08:09AM (#29891041)
Reeves was paid 10 to 14 million for this movie. That is base salary before other stuff, before his costs. So in terms of the budget, he alone is probably about 10% of the total cost to make this movie.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by mikepurvis on Monday January 10, 2022 @10:53PM (#29887315)
TV shows are really pushing things too. Twenty years ago, a big budget show was a premium cable production like Deadwood ($4.5M/episode) or Rome ($8.5M/episode), but now you have mainline shows like The Crown, Stranger Things, and The Mandalorian, all costing $12M+/episode.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by k12sosse on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @12:26AM (#29887927)
And product placement and revenue generating content masquerading as entertainment content has shot through the roof, too.

My SO is a huge The Walking Dead nut. There was a couple seasons (episodes?) that (from the outside) looked more like a vehicle to sell cars (pun intended) than to advance the storyline.

'Memba new coke? Stranger Things did, too!

Sure, go watch ET - there's obvious product placement too - what was it, pizza hut? Pepsi? M&Ms? It's been a while, but it was rarely the McGuffin in the storyline.

Did ET want to call home or did ET use the latest 5g sprint network on ETs new Samsung Flip mobile, exclusively at Sprint stores, everywhere, to call home?

It's so transparent, and then to have the audacity to charge $30 to view this 90-minute product placement informercial.. and yet the masses gobble it up and it's just a feedback loop of "Well, it's working! Let's _double down_ next time!" <Queue the KFC commercial>

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by goto11 on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @02:19AM (#29888562)
Quality CGI is certainly not free. Pixar movies are all CGI but are still quite expensive productions because it require a lot of work by many highly skilled professional.

Just take a look at the credits at the end of a blockbuster movie to see how many specialized skills are required.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by zizee on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @03:58AM (#29889142)
Sure thing, I get that. There are around 1500 people listed as being involved in the making of the matrix resurrections. That is a lot of people. But I'd bet that the vast majority of them did not work on it full time, for over 6 months each:

From Wikipedia:

> Filming started in February 2020 but was halted the next month by the COVID-19 pandemic. Wachowski toyed with the possibility of shelving the project and leaving the film unfinished, but the cast insisted that she finish it. Filming resumed in August 2020, concluding three months later.

I am happy to admit I don't really know what I am talking about. All my info is either a quick google and some gut feelings around projects. Happy to be told otherwise by someone with experience in the industry, or with references.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix_Resurrections

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt10838180/fullcredits

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by goto11 on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @03:31PM (#29897410)
The largest crew is during "principal photography" which is when the live action scenes are filmed (i.e. involves actors on sets or location). This takes a few months for an average movie, longer for a complex shoot like the Matrix. It seem to have been four months according to the your quote. But the whole production takes a lot longer. Pre-production with storyboarding, planning, casting, set-design, costume design etc. starts a long time before filming. The Matrix was probably in pre-production for at least a year. And after principal photography we have post-production (editing, music, sound, color grading etc.). Traditionally CGI was applied in post-production, but todays blockbuster movies are basically CGI throughout with the live action scenes composited into the CGI. Post-production seem to have takes about a year for the Matrix.

In short, a lot of people work a long time on a movie on this scale. The credit roll are the names they have to mention due to contracts or union regulations, but a lot more are involved in various support functions or as sub-contractors.

And of course salary is not the only expense. You need soundstages, workshops, offices, administrative functions. Movie equipment is extremely expensive. Set building can be expensive - for Matrix Reloaded they literally built a two-mile stretch of highway in the middle of nowhere in order to film the car chase scene.

If you need on-location shoots, there is a lot of logistics involved. Transporting a large crew and equipment to some inconvenient location and establishing the necessary infrastructure.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by PowerBar on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @03:08PM (#29897105)
Keep in mind that credits usually only list people that worked directly on the noticeable parts of a movie (actors, producers, graphics, audio, editing, cameras, marketing, hair/makeup, etc) but not those who work in the background to allow those people to do their work (IT, food services, electricians, janitors, truck drivers, crane operators, finance, hr, lawyers, etc).
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by newsbinator on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:23PM (#29886488)
It seems like it wasn't marketed very much: I didn't realize it was in production, about to be released, or... released. I just happened to see it online ready to watch one day and watched 2/3rds of it before giving up.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by TylerE on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:33PM (#29886587)
That's actually a pretty low marketing budget.

General practice amongst the box office geeks is to assume marketing is EQUAL to the production budget for a big blockbuster.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by chrisseaton on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:35PM (#29886607)
Yeah it seems they knew it was awful and just kind of dumped it out.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by k12sosse on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @12:38AM (#29888002)
Sony said "come Wachowski's, we are going to make a new Matrix, with or without you." And then the dump truck showed up and she did what she could to, in her mind, make a product she was happy with that she knew she had to make for herself.

There's a lot of meta- to the film about the process, state of Hollywood, big cinema, giving in to retelling the same story for nostalgia bros, from what I understand. (I am not a critic or terribly deep, just observing)

I mean this clip speaks volumes. That unmistakable look of "Why'd you have to ask me that" as she is presumably self censoring thinking about what she /should/ be saying.

https://youtu.be/6mkNIs2XWZU?t=10

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by nonameiguess on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:54PM (#29886189)
Warners intentionally released every 2021 film simultaneously on HBO Max in an attempt to drive subscriptions. It's likely impossible to attribute marginal subscriptions to a specific film on a service that offers thousands of them plus episodic television, but long run, if the service doesn't die and competes reasonably well with Disney+ and Netflix to drive up AT&T's market value for decades into the future, especially if other telecoms and ISPs start to dwindle in the face of disruption, it's worth it to lose accounting profit on a few specific wide releases for a year or two.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by blhack on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:34PM (#29885948)
How much did HBO pay for the streaming rights?

I would have bought 3 tickets to this, but watched it on HBO instead.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by oliyoung on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:43PM (#29886040)
> How much did HBO pay for the streaming rights?

They wouldn't -have paid- anything, HBO is owned by Warner too

edit: ...they wouldn't have to have paid anything..

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by rzwitserloot on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:56PM (#29886201)
No, they'd have paid exactly what they want to. If they want the movie to make no profit, they'll charge HBO nothing, or perhaps they'd have the gall to have _HBO charge the movie studio part of warner_ a fee for showing it on HBO, perhaps filing that away as 'marketing expenses' or some similar scam. Anybody with monkey points (entitled to a cut of the net earnings) is out of luck.

Conversely if they want it to be a windfall for some reason they charge HBO idiotic amounts of money for the distro rights, which HBO will happily pay because Warner tells them to do so.

That's exactly hollywood accounting.

I have no idea if it was actually 'done' to the matrix here.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by oliyoung on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:04PM (#29886290)
> they'd have paid exactly what they want to.

sorry, yeah I agree, this is a better way of saying that

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by blhack on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:45PM (#29886064)
Oh very interesting! I wonder how that looks from an accounting/profitability perspective?
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by 14 on Monday January 10, 2022 @10:02PM (#29886843)
This reminds me of my dad’s story at work on time. He worked at a mill and the higher ups had a meeting with everyone. They said due to the high pricing of logs currently we are thinking we have to lay some guys off we didn’t want it to come as a surprise. My dad spoke up and said you own this division and the logging division. You set the price of the logs. You are telling us you charge yourself too much for logs and now we are going to lose work? There was union talk of a mill wide strike if they did it and they ended up not laying anyone off.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by oliyoung on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:53PM (#29886165)
You know that game where you put a table-tennis ball under plastic cups and slide them around and you have to guess where the ball ends up?

That.

Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by tinus_hn on Tuesday January 11, 2022 @03:38AM (#29889028)
And that’s how you end up losing $100 million on paper.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by cheschire on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:38PM (#29885987)
yep. i watched it at least 3 times on hbo as well. easily would've bought a couple tickets.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by utopcell on Monday January 10, 2022 @09:23PM (#29886486)
same here
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by jeffwilcox on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:33PM (#29885933)
The long tail of box office receipts, especially internationally, is always interesting, as are licensing deals. Maybe they find a way to protect those with other subsidiaries.
Re:The Matrix Resurrections estimated to lose Warner Bros $100M by csours on Monday January 10, 2022 @08:50PM (#29886132)
Hollywood Accounting, as I understand it, entails having a separate production company for each movie. That company then buys services from the parent company, something like a franchisee. Some of those services may be inflated. All of the costs incurred by the production company will be paid off before anyone gets residuals.

There's also the matter of "marketing costs" which also help out the parent company.

So, of the $190 million that the movie cost, some of it was raised from WB, but some of it also went back to WB. From the outside it's really hard to say when they come out even.