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Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by WalterBright on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @04:42PM (#28778158)
20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground and selling it for others to burn. If they were really green that would stop.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thatwasunusual on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:26PM (#28778676)
> 20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground and selling it for others to burn.

To be precise, it's 14%, down from 26% in 2008.[0]

[0] https://e24.no/norsk-oekonomi/i/dOXzd1/norge-er-mindre-oljea...

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by dtech on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @04:49PM (#28778244)
At least they are using that money for citizens and green energy instead of Ferrari's of the royal family
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by AustinDev on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @04:54PM (#28778287)
Ferarris don't contribute at all to global warming relatively. The many Gulfstream's and 747's the wealthy own are actually statistically significant in terms of impact.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by Le_Dook on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:09PM (#28778454)
Heck, I know they're hybrids but just look formula one. The total emissions of every car, from all sessions at every single race in a year combined produce less emissions than a one way flight from London to New York. Which is then completed negated by the fact that the drivers all take private jets around the world
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by dd444fgdfg on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:52PM (#28778964)
i don't think that's a good comparison. think how many flights a single F1 race "causes". Not just the team members, theirs cars and equipment, but the millions of fans traveling to races around the world.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by clouddrover on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @07:05PM (#28779599)
F1 is moving to carbon neutral synthetic fuel:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a37872650/formula-1-auto-r...

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by adrianN on Thursday October 07, 2021 @12:49AM (#28782095)
There is no carbon neutral fuel before we have a surplus of carbon neutral energy. Currently, any kWh you use to synthesize fuel could instead be used for something else. It's probably less carbon intensive to keep on burning regular fuel, because it takes a lot of energy to make synfuel.

Of course it's nice that they subsidize R&D for synfuels (we might need them for niche applications after all), but selling them as "carbon neutral" is just greenwashing.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by clouddrover on Thursday October 07, 2021 @01:21AM (#28782362)
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by adrianN on Thursday October 07, 2021 @02:25AM (#28782892)
How do your links counter my argument that any kWh spent on creating synfuel could be used for something else instead and as long as we don't have a surplus of carbon free energy all the carbon free electricity used in this way needs to be compensated by fossil fuels somewhere else in the grid?
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by authorityofnil on Thursday October 07, 2021 @05:10AM (#28783931)
I don't think this argument makes any sense. Just because there can be better uses for additional clean energy, does not make the additional energy any less clean.

By this definition, no source is clean, because there are always "better uses" for energy.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by adrianN on Thursday October 07, 2021 @05:24AM (#28784021)
The honest way is using the average CO2/kWh for the grid you're plugged into (including the CO2 emitted for constructing the power plants with some discounting function) to estimate how much carbon your synfuel releases.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by serpix on Thursday October 07, 2021 @12:49AM (#28782100)
The cars and equipment themselves are also airlifted around the world. The whole entourage is a massive waste of resources.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by toomuchtodo on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:00PM (#28778351)
The House of Saud, for some time, has attempted and failed to diversify away from oil wealth for when the time comes they can no longer rely on it. Norway, arguably, will reach that point soon (as they’ve bootstrapped electric mobility and can now deprecate existing petroleum supply chains, both for domestic use and for export).

Be like Norway and use the time you have left selling a natural resource wisely, because bans and cross border tariffs are coming, and you’ll be left with what you could build during your transition when the revenue dries up. Hopefully as a country, you don’t end up empty handed.

(Norway also supplies the UK with a large amount of clean hydro power, roughly 690MW continuous, through a newly commissioned underwater HVDC transmission line, so it’s not all dirty fossil exports)

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ResearchCode on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:37PM (#28778812)
Neither do all but a few countries.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by bogomipz on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:18PM (#28778573)
That seems like an odd concession given that the need to curtail the burning of fossil fuels is literally a global concern.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by dredmorbius on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @09:09PM (#28780529)
How much of Boeing's aircraft fleet on which you worked is powered by those same fossil fuels?

Hypocritical facile criticism is hypocritically facile.

What's notable about Norway is that back in 1968, as the country was first becoming aware of its oil wealth through the newly-realised North Sea deposits (shared with the UK), the country had the foresight to tap the advice of an Iraqi ex-pat who advised the country to invest its oil funds for national growth, infrasturcture, and sustainability, and not squander it in corruption and gratuitous expenditures as so many other countries had and would.

That story is now in the HN queue:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2878010

The consequence is that we can now face the ironic but heartening fact that, yes, an oil-producing and exporting country is now positioned as amongst the more prepared for a post-fossil-fuel economy and civilisation.

If you find yourself in a lifeboat with limited supplies and rations, it's not unwise to make use of those rations. It is unwise to squander those rations for purposes other than reaching safety. And it's extraordinarily unwise to criticise those who are using those rations to achieve a safer state.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by dredmorbius on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @11:25PM (#28781483)
Erm, this is the story I'd meant to link:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28780108

The final "8" got truncated above, leading to a random 10 year old comment...

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by takk309 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:23PM (#28778630)
How much oil is needed to produce a single electric vehicle? What I am getting at is we will need oil extraction for a long time. While we can move away from burning it for heat, we still need it for the production of most plastics. This doesn't even begin to touch on oil's use in the extraction process of all the other metals used in car production.

We also need oil for road building. I don't see that changing anytime either. After all, asphalt production produces far fewer greenhouse gasses than cement. Concrete roads have their place but the vast majority of road miles will be made with asphalt for the near future.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by lm28469 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:09PM (#28779109)
Given that all the plastics and most synthetic fabrics are petrol derivatives I don't think it'll ever die.

90% of everything in your direct line of sight probably contain petrol derivatives. From wall paint to shampoo, your t-shirt, phone, chewing gums, toothpaste, rugs, shoes... We just can't sustain our modern lifestyle without it

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ip26 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @09:10PM (#28780540)
oil's use in the extraction process of all the other metals used in car production.

Maybe I'm being reductive, but isn't this essentially because we haven't electrified mine carts et al yet? Or are you referring to steel smelting?

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by takk309 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @09:42PM (#28780787)
A combination of both really. Also included is the transportation of raw materials to production facilities. To be fair, however, these costs exist for non-electric cars to some degree.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by arghwhat on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:06PM (#28779094)
Asphalt is itself very energy inefficient, and finding a replacement is rather important. Quoting kurzgesagt, the impact if manufacturing an electric car is equal to just two meters of asphalt road.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by takk309 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:11PM (#28779137)
On top of that, asphalt is very easy to recycle and is likely the most recycled material on the planet by weight. My original point was that we will still need to extract some oil for a long time into the future.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thinkcontext on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:30AM (#28787625)
> How much oil is needed to produce a single electric vehicle?

And wood energy was used to jumpstart the fossil fuel energy age. There was a transition period before fossil fuel energy became the dominant way to extract more fossil fuels. Now wood for energy is economically negligible in advanced economies.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thomasfl on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:01PM (#28778361)
As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norway could have a Kodak moment.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by r00fus on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:35PM (#28778790)
Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality.

Many large oil exporting countries know the good times won't last, and are planning for it.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ars on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:21PM (#28779216)
> Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality.

That's not much - $25K per person over 10 years, and with an average income of $70K per person, and something like half of their economy is energy (most if not all social programs are funded from energy production).

If oil were to stop tomorrow, they'd have around 10 years before the money runs out. (Maybe a bit longer since kids don't earn money.) And if they have to replace all the social funding, they'd have even less time.

Norway is relying on slow reduction in demand, and time to transition their economy. Will they have it? It's far from certain. I feel like Norwegians rely too much on this fund to save themselves, rather than transitioning away from oil now.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by r00fus on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @07:44PM (#28779913)
There are lots of pushes to move the fund into carbon-neutral or negative investments, which would likely grow as the fossil fuel economy swan song starts.

However, I find it a bit disingenuous to chide Norway which is doing far better than much larger countries like the UK, US or Germany in transitioning to renewables.

I am not worried for Norway (though when the North Atlantic jetbtream shifts they will likely suffer) - I'm far more worried for the poor and marginalized peoples - they will suffer far more.

It's no surprise that thought leaders are worried about climate change impacts. Some will perversely benefit (politicians who are anti-immigration will gain populartiy because climate migrations are clearly defined by US defense dept as a likely result from climate change). Others may benefit by providing mitigating solutions to climate change itself that alter economies.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thinkcontext on Thursday October 07, 2021 @11:35AM (#28787685)
Its an endowment, they should be only spending a portion of the earnings not the principle. That way it will last in perpetuity instead of 10 years.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ars on Thursday October 07, 2021 @12:02PM (#28788106)
Do the math. That's enough for 5K/person/year.

You really think that's enough to replace the oil sector?

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thinkcontext on Thursday October 07, 2021 @01:35PM (#28789614)
The income from the wealth fund doesn't need to replace oil income forever, it should be used to invest in growing other parts of their economy. For example, Equinor is getting into offshore wind and carbon sequestration both of which use similar competencies to oil production.

Anyway, they are still extracting oil and probably will continue to do so for a couple decades. That gives them time to grow their wealth fund and gradually transition their economy. They are at a huge advantage compared to other oil exporters.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by blackoil on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @07:50PM (#28779963)
A comment above says that only 14% of GDP is oil dependent. That does look apocalyptic even if by magic oil demand drops to 0 tomorrow.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ars on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @10:23PM (#28781086)
14% of GDP - but a MUCH larger percent of exports. Also a quite large percent is indirectly from oil, i.e. oil related services.

Additionally social funding in Norway comes from oil - without that funding taxes would have to go up a lot.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by drexlspivey on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @07:19PM (#28779721)
it’s actually $250k per person
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ars on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @10:21PM (#28781070)
It's $25K "over 10 years" - they are not going to spend all of it in a single year because then there would be nothing left.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by makeitdouble on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @09:22PM (#28780649)
As I see it, Kodak saw the writing on the wall pretty early, started R&D for digital camera ahead of the pack, and actually built the first working digital camera we know of. But it failed to put as much weight behind the new product line as it did on the money making ones.

That's basically a text book example of the "strategy tax", which isn't about stopping profit from existing products, but to let new concepts cannibalise legacy products.

In which way do you see Norway hitting the brakes on new technology and future trends to protect the oil business ?

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by jalk on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:09PM (#28778447)
How large is the Oil Fund these days (after Corona spending) 1 trillion USD or something like that - you'll be fine
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by magicalhippo on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:20PM (#28778602)
> How large is the Oil Fund these days

They got a "live" counter here[1], so yeah around 1.3 trillion USD give or take. Estimates for corona spending is around 80 billion USD[2].

[1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/

[2]: https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-oljefo...

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by bellyfullofbac on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:29PM (#28778711)
Geezus, must be nice to have that kind of rainy day fund. Grossly over-simplifed: "Shut down the economy? Oh well, here's 80 billion dollars to keep everyone fed and warm."
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by eptcyka on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:00PM (#28779043)
A country can't sustain itself on cash alone. Human capital and infrastructure is vital.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by ars on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:23PM (#28779233)
For a few years. But divide that fund by the population and it suddenly doesn't seem as much.

Human capital is far more valuable, but most of the industrial knowledge of Norway is in energy production.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by atq2119 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @11:43PM (#28781573)
Energy production isn't going to go away.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by jonsen on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:26PM (#28778678)
If the world remains able and willing to pay it back. It's mostly invested abroad.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by belltaco on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @04:46PM (#28778209)
Stopping it would be useless, it'd just increase production from oil wells of other countries. They could invest that money into accelerating green technology.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by cecilpl2 on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:06PM (#28778412)
To a first order effect, stopping production would decrease supply, increasing price, and therefore decreasing demand and therefore overall oil usage, shifting some energy to alternative sources.

Of course second order effects might dwarf that, like the fact that increasing prices would incentivize oil extraction in currently unprofitable locations. That extraction may or may not be more carbon-intensive than Norway's (though probably more if it's currently unprofitable).

It sounds punchy to say "Norway should stop extracting oil" as much as it does to say "It doesn't matter whether they do or not since someone else will", but the reality is much more complex than either of those simplistic zeroth-order approximations.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by mikewave on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:47PM (#28778909)
Precisely. If oil prices get high enough, the Canadian oil sands will begin to be a profitable operation again, and will scale back up to take advantage. At this point, while we're still weaning off of oil - for probably the next 50 years - we need the lowest carbon, least cannibalistic sources of it possible.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by Retric on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:14PM (#28778515)
Infrastructure takes time to build. A short term price hike in oil costs isn’t going to change how many cars Tesla can manufacture tomorrow. Near term you can build up infrastructure to extract more oil from the same well faster than you can build a new car factory.

The only real change from such a policy is how quickly wells will run dry, but I hope we can abandon oil long before running out is a serious concern.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by kmonsen on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:03PM (#28778386)
That's not useless though. It would drive the price up making it easier to scale up on renewables.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by bdamm on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:07PM (#28778426)
Only if there was a large pact of countries doing so. But even that would be dubious, since OPEC and other groups would just increase production. Also there are many oil resources that can be tapped with a slight increase in the prices, so really Norway would just be handing production over to countries like Canada, where local governments would be only too eager to sell the more expensive product.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by mensetmanusman on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:08PM (#28778437)
That is under the assumption oil revenues aren’t efficiently spent on speeding the green transition.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by WalterBright on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @06:21PM (#28779214)
Gotta start somewhere. After all, Norway switching to all-electric cars also won't make a significant reduction in worldwide CO2.

Sure, other wells will produce more. But at a higher price. Higher prices encourage use of greener alternatives.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by belltaco on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @07:30PM (#28779809)
>After all, Norway switching to all-electric cars also won't make a significant reduction in worldwide CO2.

It bootstraps companies like Tesla, and VW's electric cars. That will lead to more CO2 reductions happening sooner.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by mcdonje on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @09:14PM (#28780570)
On the other hand, it's impressive they've gone electric while they're a major oil producer.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by thehappypm on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @10:26PM (#28781100)
They don’t want to get high on their own supply.
Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by namkarno on Thursday October 07, 2021 @04:30PM (#28791647)
don't crap where you eat?

The alternative would be "dogfooding", eat what you make.

Re:Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year by tdeck on Wednesday October 06, 2021 @05:49PM (#28778935)
This is a major plot point in the excellent fictional series Occupied, which is worth a watch on Netflix.