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Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:23AM (#27759773)
Can anyone comment on why San Francisco’s debate became so nasty? Is it just re-trenching the tech vs. long-term tenant fight? Or is there a new dynamic?

We just got through this debate in New York City through our mayoral primary. Neither “side” won. But the process has so far produced two lead candidates who acknowledge the problem, pledged to focus on public safety and at the same time be mindful of the racial inequities of the NYPD’s recent past.

That compromise doesn’t exist in SF. The political space for it to exist doesn’t exist. There is a refusal to admit the problem on one hand. And a vilification of the incumbents as idiots, or worse, in bed with the criminals, on the other.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:40AM (#27759909)
This is admittedly regional chauvinism, but I think New Yorkers are just fundamentally more pragmatic. Maybe it comes from everyone taking the subway. I don’t know, but we just seem less likely to drive an ideology right over a cliff. Up to the edge, maybe, but not over.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by lotsofpulp on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:52AM (#27760012)
Since the root causes are not, and will not be addressed, I predict the pendulum will simply swing too far in both directions.

The root cause being the federal laws governing involuntary committal for mental healthcare and lack of federal resources for mental healthcare which is super pricy for obvious reasons. In addition are widening income/wealth gap and the temperate climates exacerbate the issue in some places more than others.

So the solution at the state and city levels is to use police to push people that are likelier to cause problems around so they are not comfortable being around, and incarcerating them and keeping them in the system for various offenses.

Then the police and politicians get heat for being prejudiced or biased or unfair, and they relax the rules, and then the problems return, and people will complain about thefts and property crime and etc until it gets bad enough that there is once again political will for a crackdown, and rinse repeat.

Note that I am not saying there are not legitimate prejudices and biases that need to be addressed in the police/judicial system, nor that society should let minor offenses go and make police think about the political ramifications of every interaction they have.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:27AM (#27760308)
While I fully support measures to close the inequality gap and also to improve access to mental health care, I don’t think these things adequately explain why crime has surged. Specifically, access to mental healthcare and crime haven’t deteriorated so significantly in the last ~5 years commensurate with the crime surge.

On the other hand, broad and flat-footed anti-police sentiment has increased and has manifest as either explicit depolicing policies or unofficial pressure on police officers in the field to avoid routine stops and other preventative policing efforts, as well as pressure on DAs to be seen as “soft on crime” (not intending any sort of disparagement with this term). Which isn’t to say that police don’t need reform—I’m one of the 90% of Americans who think some kind of reform is necessary, but perhaps something a little more sophisticated than “defund the police” is in order (better training for police officers, weaken police unions, increase protection in vulnerable communities while increasing funding to other social services, etc)?

As for whether the pendulum will swing too far against crime, when was the last time that happened in SF? I suspect SF’s robust corps of progressives have successfully prevented the pendulum from swinging even to the center for the last decade or two.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by prepend on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:58AM (#27760066)
> The root cause being the federal laws governing involuntary committal for mental healthcare and lack of federal resources for mental healthcare which is super pricy for obvious reasons.

I do think this is the root cause of the shoplifting examples in the article. Stealing handbags from Niemen Marcus is, I think, unrelated to mental health issues.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by mc32 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:00AM (#27760088)
Correct.

These people know that you don’t do that in DC without consequences, so they go up to SF.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by lotsofpulp on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:02AM (#27760107)
I know, but that is the pendulum swinging too far trying to correct for perceived prejudices by the police/judicial system. Which I think are rooted in expecting police to be able to deal with mental health issues as if they have the tools to address the crisis.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:24AM (#27760282)
I don’t think street homelessness (and so closing the mental hospitals) can explain everything. The brazen shoplifters and car thieves don’t appear to be predominantly street people.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:45AM (#27760461)
I started writing a long comment about criteria for involuntary commitment... but then realized that it's probably not bipolar schizophrenics who do the shoplifting.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by lotsofpulp on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:55AM (#27760554)
That is not the flow I am trying to illustrate. The flow is that some people find the use of police, jail, and our other judicial/penal systems today to be less than desirable for dealing with certain circumstances and people, but then trying to fix it without the proper solution (since there is no solution at the local level) results in a situation where shoplifting and property crime no longer have consequences which creates an opportunity for bad actors to proliferate.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:43AM (#27761023)
Banning hammers, because not everything is a nail?

Oh, yes.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by refurb on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:09AM (#27761299)
I predict the pendulum will simply swing too far in both directions.

Yup. People alive today look back the three strikes law and think “how could the voters ever wanted that?”.

But you live long enough and the the cycles start to emerge. If crime gets bad enough in the cities you’ll see a repeat of the 70-90s where law and order was priority #1.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by cm2187 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:52AM (#27760004)
I don't know that it is the case. The front runner for NY DA intends to not prosecute minor offenses [1]

[1] https://www.alvinbragg.com/plans

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:13AM (#27760201)
> front runner for NY DA intends to not prosecute minor offenses

Bragg is a far cry from Boudin. He is, as a former prosecutor, leading in a field that had Boudinesque candidates, e.g. those with zero prosecutorial experience.

I would actually highlight him as an example of the sort of compromise that seems lacking in San Francisco.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by thereare5lights on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @02:25PM (#27764252)
If you actually look at the list he plans to not prosecute for

https://www.alvinbragg.com/declination

they make sense.

Contrast that with one of Boudin's policies

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/24/da-critics-say-anti-d...

and then think about the drug abuse problem that is prevalent in SF.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:00AM (#27760086)
The next mayor is an ex-cop though. The woman that came in second explicitly rejected “defund the police”.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by newsclues on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:35AM (#27760368)
Cold winters force a level of realism that a Mediterranean climate does not.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by eevilspock on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:26AM (#27760304)
The upper and middle castes can be pragmatic about the symptoms when the disease does not touch them.

Whether SF or NYC, inequality and racial segregation have increased, corporations build glass and steel temples of capitalism, billionaires treat the world as their lab and playground, and even the middle class hoards the world's production and labor resources from the comfort of their couches, advantages all accumulated over centuries of exploitation, colonization, slavery, genocide and ecological debt that the poor and future generations will have to pay back.

But to keep things simple, let's just consider the "anarchy" in light of where SF and NYC (shining lights on the hill of liberalism) rank in the dimension of racial segregation:

- https://gothamist.com/news/new-yorks-schools-are-still-the-m...

- https://belonging.berkeley.edu/most-least-segregated-cities

- https://belonging.berkeley.edu/roots-structural-racism

- Most major metropolitan areas have become more racially segregated, study shows: https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/21/us/housing-segregation-cities...

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:55AM (#27760546)
You guys would be more convincing if you were willing to acknowledge that progress has been made. Anyone that has studied history, or even just been alive for a few decades, knows that this is not the worst time ever. The constant catastrophizing rhetoric just discredits you.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by jfengel on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @02:54PM (#27764562)
And you'd be more convincing if you hadn't just said, "You didn't phrase your argument in a way that suited me, therefore I am going to ignore the problem you just raised."

It's not the worst time ever. There, I said it. Happy? Now, are you going to say "'Not the worst time ever' can still be pretty bad and in need of fixing"?

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @04:39PM (#27765510)
Not the worst time ever' can still be pretty bad and in need of fixing

Who do you think has been making all the progress to get us to not the worst time ever? You’re welcome, by the way.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by jfengel on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @04:53PM (#27765621)
I'm pretty sure it's not the people who say "I've done enough and you don't get any more".
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:35AM (#27760371)
> let's just consider the "anarchy" in light of where SF and NYC (shining lights on the hill of liberalism) rank in the dimension of racial segregation

Sorry, is the argument that public safety can’t exist in a desegregated city?

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by eevilspock on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:39AM (#27760403)
you read me backwards.

if anything, the upper castes rely on segregation to feel safer, thereby making things worse.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:43AM (#27760435)
Defending the current state of San Francisco on the basis of not being as racially segregated on one measure as New York City sort of implies that it’s one or the other. If that’s not the implication, it’s irrelevant.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by eevilspock on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:48AM (#27760483)
you really misread me. I'm not defending either city. They are both incredibly segregated, unjust and oppressive to the lower castes.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:53AM (#27760532)
Is there evidence that supports this against the more likely causes, e.g., rich people just want to live around other rich people, people of any SES prefer to live around those who are culturally similar (and culture correlates with race in America), etc? In other words, I don’t think we have to resort to mustache-twirling caricatures to explain an increase in racial segregation.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:43AM (#27760441)
I agree with you that inequality and “socialism for the rich” are real problems, but I don’t think they adequately explain the 5-year crime surge across the country, specifically inequality didn’t increase commensurate with this surge in the same time period.

Most likely this is the result of our flat-footed “defund the police!” rhetoric that manifest as either explicit de-policing policies or else as unofficial pressure on police to reduce preventative policing practices like routine stops. I don’t think anyone disputes this correlation even if they don’t subscribe to the causation hypothesis.

With respect to racial segregation, I know ordinary liberals and moderates are generally on board with increased integration but I’m not sure how that will hit the I-oppose-race-mixing-but-in-a-woke-way crowd, particularly in SF?

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:46AM (#27761053)
It keeps me puzzled: why inequality per se is a culprit?

Poverty? I would get it. But how the fact that someone is richer than you justifies shoplifting is beyond my understanding.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:00AM (#27761196)
I can’t speak for anyone besides myself, but growing inequality implies more poverty (more poor people, poor people get poorer, etc). So if poverty begets crime and (growing) inequality begets poverty, then inequality begets crime. There may also be other vectors through which inequality begets crime as well.

Maybe it’s possible to have a kind of inequality where the rich get richer without the poor getting poorer (although I suspect it would just mean that the purchasing power of a dollar falls even though the poor have as many dollars as they had before) but in practice in America I think we have the kind of inequality where the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer (and more numerous).

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:12AM (#27761328)
According to [1] the official poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from 11.8 percent in 2018.

[1] https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-27...

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:19AM (#27761405)
Hmm, interesting. Any idea how the picture looks at the 5-year or 10-year trend (year over year clouds just be an anomaly)? What about the degree of poverty (we could have fewer poor people but they could be getting poorer)?
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:34AM (#27761573)
From [2] it looks like poverty has been going up and down staying within 10-15% range for the past 50 years.

I'm sure it's possible to construct a measure which will show that poverty went up - as it's equally possible to show the opposite - but either will mostly likely be overfitting, i. e. hand-picking data to prove the desired point.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:31PM (#27767304)
To be clear I’m not trying to construct anything; I’m just expressing a curiosity.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by bradleyjg on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @11:28AM (#27762214)
I don’t get where this notion comes from. As late as the early 1970s we had actual starvation in the US (not “food insecurity”).

Poverty is definitely definitely going down, not up.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:32PM (#27767307)
I wasn’t thinking on 50 year timescales, more like the last decade. But I may well be wrong even on that point.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by eevilspock on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @11:48AM (#27762431)
fairness matters. Especially as this is a shared planet. Rich people should not be able to monopolize it, nor monopolize political power, have better criminal justice, be treated as better people, and then leverage this monopoly to make people work for them for the lowest possible wage and extract all the value from that labor as "their" profit.

What if one argued that some enslaved people in 1850 Georgia were better fed than before they were kidnapped from Africa. All ok then?

And why should rich people complain if there were a revolution and they were relegated to the middle class? The middle class of 2021 live longer and have better healthcare than the kings of even 100 years ago. What rights does anyone have to anything? By what reason doed anyone have a claim to injustice?

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @11:56AM (#27762539)
The problem is that unlike poverty and equality, fairness is a vague philosophical category.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by amazingman on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:25AM (#27761461)
It has become more and more difficult in the bay area to speak plainly about socioeconomic issues and the homelessness/mental health crisis without triggering the Antiracist Elect. For a growing segment of interlocutors, most everything bad or negative going on in society is because white people. This makes productive discourse fraught at best, usually impossible.

Note that while I do specify the bay area here, it's only for the purposes of this comment. It's quite obviously spreading to other places. The moral madness of social media is slowly but steadily spilling out into every day society.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by iammisc on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:32AM (#27760913)
New York city has a large republican area: Staten island.

While SF and cities like it vilify incumbents, they also vilify the opposition. In my city of Portland, no one will consider electing a republican because they have constructed strawman as to what a republican will be like (forgetting that the last Gop mayer of Portland was loved).

New York had a republican only 20 years ago.

LA was also revived by a republican mayor.

There's a pattern.

Sorry for being so blunt, but at some point we need to name the problem.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by mc32 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:49AM (#27761087)
I think the Koch dynasty corruption plus the Dinkins ineptitude and a tough on mob crime (which the city was tired of) helped Giuliani win the mayorship. NYC isn’t republican by nature, but the hands of the constituency were tied.

Bloomberg was in the middle and now Deblasio/Wilhelm’s tenure will likely propel a moderate Democrat into office who promises to bring order back to the city.

SF could learn from that but it doesn’t happen. SF is very ideological do instead of admitting mistakes progressives keep doubling down. At some point the constituency will say enough! But SF keeps surprising me.

Brown was corrupt but at least crime was dealt with. Everyone since Brown has been on the ideological bandwagon and won’t admit to mistakes and keep on doubling down on ineffective and detrimental policies.

At this point I say bring someone like Willie back.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:42AM (#27761014)
My pet theory is that all people of good will should vote for republicans in New York and for democrats in Alabama. This way reasonable middle-ground centrist candidates will be elected.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by iammisc on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:12AM (#27761323)
Sure. Let's try it and see... Why defend incumbents?
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by snypher on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:56AM (#27761163)
The last Republican mayor of Portland left office in 1980.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by refurb on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:41AM (#27759917)
Chesa and his predecessor Gascon were not just trying out the “let’s not put people in jail” to see if it works, this is a core tenant of their political beliefs and if the population at large has to pay a price, so be it. This is not a slight adjustment to the justice system, this is a “burn it down and build something else” approach - an attempt to dismantle a system, they claim, is built on systemic racism. If a couple of law-abiding citizens get run over and killed by a repeated offender in a stolen car, then that’s a sacrifice Chesa is willing to make.

So to answer your question, there is no compromise because compromise would be admitting failure - that these policies don’t work. And also admitting that putting some people in jail is a net benefit to society.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by 6f8986c3 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:45AM (#27759951)
Correct.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by SyzygistSix on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:00AM (#27760612)
When poverty, homelessness, and desperation increase, so does crime and theft. And these politicians are correct in that we cannot jail our way out of this problem. Not jailing people doesn't work but neither does jailing them. At least one of these policies doesn't waste money, incarcerate people, and puts the responsibility on the store owners.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by adolph on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:11AM (#27760703)
> That compromise doesn’t exist in SF. The political space for it to exist doesn’t exist. There is a refusal to admit the problem on one hand. And a vilification of the incumbents as idiots, or worse, in bed with the criminals, on the other.

In "The Three Languages of Politics" Arnold Kling classifies three basic perspectives that can become central in a person's mind in such a way that expressions of the other perspectives are incomprehensible. The perspectives are described through axis of 1) oppressor-oppressed, 2) civilization-barbarism, 3) freedom-coercion. In the original article the author describes social media communication on the part of government staff that highlights the oppressor-oppressed without acknowledging other perspectives. Similarly people victimized by or by witnessing crime or crime-hype may find civilization-barbarism the most salient perspective. Without a consideration for all axis a productive conversation is unlikely.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17831052-the-three-langu...

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by dvfjsdhgfv on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:23AM (#27760271)
> Can anyone comment on why San Francisco’s debate became so nasty?

Because it's related to the issue of race, and this is one of the most difficult subjects to discuss and has been so for many decades. If anything, the debate became worse.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by anitil on Thursday July 08, 2021 @01:38AM (#27768757)
As a not-American, what is the racial aspect? This is a legitimate question, I only know about SF from HN, and this is the first time I've seen a reference to race.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by eevilspock on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:30AM (#27760334)
It is only difficult because it is inconvenient.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by throwaway894345 on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @08:55AM (#27760557)
I think it’s difficult because some people are deliberately poisoning the well of civil discourse in the name of “social justice” (e.g., canceling anyone who doesn’t share their exact viewpoint).
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by cafard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @11:15AM (#27762063)
As I told a European techie at a conference twenty-odd years ago, New York includes its suburbs. If New York were just Manhattan, things might be different.
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by draw_down on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @07:33AM (#27759844)
It’s “racist” to talk about it, basically.
[dead]
Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by AlexTWithBeard on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:51AM (#27761110)
> Please leave

Sometimes I think that authoritarian regime combined with freedom of movement is a potential alternative to democracy.

You don't like it here? You don't live here.

Re:SF's crime debate turns nasty by iammisc on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @09:35AM (#27760941)
> I know everybody on my block, even the homeless people.

What I find hilarious about bay area residents is that they'll say things like this as if it's at all unique to the area.

In reality, knowing your neighbors is common throughout the country