The Chinese government isn't exactly arresting Taiwanese for walking alone with a yellow umbrella or alone holding a candle. No diabolical authoritarian government there to take away their free will, yet.

They are sending fighter jet squadrons into their airspace pretty much constantly though. I don't see any likely scenario where Taiwan maintains sovereignty in the next ten to twenty years. They will either be assimilated as a useful puppet or there will be military action to bring Taiwan in line. China has been flexing their military might for a while now and they can't afford to look weak by backing down or letting Taiwan build up their defenses further.

Here’s a map that shows what Taiwan considers its airspace for anyone who’s curious: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/JADIZ_an...

It's often misreported this way in the popular press but your ADIZ is not "your airspace", and establishing an ADIZ is not a claim of sovereignty.

Right, I was just staying consistent with how the person I responded to was using the term.

Is there a legend for that map? I'm not sure if I'm interpreting it correctly or not.. I see the box over Taiwan, but that extends over into the mainland. Do they really scramble jets in cases where Chinese fighters don't even go over the water? Or is that line that goes over the water the start of what they consider to be their airspace?

I don't think they scramble jets on Taiwan, no. But every time a news report comes out about Chinese jets representing escalating aggression towards Taiwan, that is the boundary they are actually talking about.

> … or there will be military action to bring Taiwan in line.

I don't see how this won't cause further escalation… perhaps just one ohio class authorized to target up to 288 civilian and military installations needed to "bring Taiwan in line"…

What other escalation would there be if the ccp invades and installs a new government or just makes it part of China?

I think that would be game over for Taiwan and the only blowback on China would be sanctions. It would go over exactly like what happened with Russia in the Ukraine. Everyone would be pissed at China but no one would want to start ww3.

Perhaps an ohio class sub can be leased (crew and all) to the ROC and under direct command of the civilian leadership…

Of course none of this has to be made public with the proper FISA authorizations…

In such a scenario the PRC is the one starting ww3, but perhaps not if the ROC goes public and states that its simply defending itself… if NK can get away with it, I don't see why any other nation state cannot pursue the same strategy…

PRC would know something like this is in place when the ROC no longer decides to scramble the fighters as much :P

The US Navy could impose a blockade. I don't like that option, but the US does have options other than sanctions. It could also counterinvade Taiwan.

A naval blockade only or air and sea?

And yes, invading Taiwan after China took over is an option, but I don't see how it's possible that option would be chosen. Engaging another super power like China is extremely dangerous and would lead to a massive conflict. Our carrier strike groups are mighty, but they would be overwhelmed by anti ship missiles very quickly. If the United States were serious about defending Taiwan in a conflict, we would have troops in Taiwan as a deterrent like we do with other countries in the region.

China currently gets most of its iron ore from Australia. It is completely unworkable to transport that by air as are many other things. (If China had to for example transport petroleum from the Persian Gulf by air, my guess is that it would cost more petroleum to fuel the operation than the operation would move. ISTR that most of the cargo by weight transiting the oceans is petroleum.) A naval blockade would harm China more than conquering Taiwan would help China.

> A naval blockade would harm China more than conquering Taiwan would help China

Agreed. And not just iron ore, military and civ populations need to be fed:

There's also the fact that most of China soybean supply comes from imports (around 90 percent of its soybeans are imported from the international market and are mostly used in oil and animal feed)… China would have to be able to deploy/resupply some sort of protection for those ships for any cargo imported.

There's lots of different avenues that can be pursued by a varying number of state/non state actors, that will have varying levels of impact and feasible response to such, so I really find the thinking "ww3 is highly unlikely so, [x] actor/nation state can do w/e it wants with no material consequences" really lazy…

They re not either in Hong Kong. I do all that and am not arrested. The arrests are for slogans or song that sound independentist.

An insecure phase other countries went through and usually grow out of with time.

What's the insecure phase to grow out of? Like CCP is insecure, as in like the connotation of a Napoleon complex driving a giant pickup truck?

What does growing out of this phase mean to you?

HK is de jure and de facto part of China and subject to its rule, and although China allows some amount of self-governance, national security issues (as tapping a submarine cable would be) are within mainland control.

Taiwan is more complicated; it may be de jure part of China, but there are two governments that de facto govern distinct territories.

Taiwan's not in the middle of being taken over by the mainland chinese government, and it's also not a location data would go through to reach other countries.

They may not be in the middle of being taken over, but the process has definitely started. Ccp jets are being flown into Taiwanese airspace constantly. I don't think China would risk looking weak by backing down and letting Taiwan be free.

And so to I doin't think (or minimally hope) that the US and democratic coalitions would risk looking weak by backing down and letting CCP call a bluff and thus ending our hegemony.

And Taiwan scrambles its own jets, so? This situation has been ongoing for years.

I'm not sure the fact that it's been going on for years makes it any less serious. It's an act of intimidation that is designed to drain the defense budget of Taiwan ([1]) while desensitizing and normalizing these incursions into Taiwanese air space. The carrots that the CCP are offering aren't very appetizing, but the way that they are wielding this massive sledgehammer of a stick forces Taiwan to stay at the negotiation table. There is nothing like what is happening there anywhere else in the world right now. There is a reason that they have spent billions of dollars on air defenses, they are rightfully terrified. China has made their intentions clear, they own Taiwan and they will bring them back into the fold one way or another.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/...

Negotiating for what? Taiwan is not giving up its democracy.

China is doing similar things to other SEA nations with their island building, and they do incursions on Japan for sure.

Expect the nature of the situation to change in the next ten years as these systems become more automated. Why become fatigued when your F-16s fly themselves.

Yea, exactly, it's bs. I really hope they can hold out and maintain a true democracy but Taiwan is one of the biggest priorities for the CCP, they are putting billions of dollars into bringing Taiwan back into the fold. I think they would probably like to avoid an armed conflict if at all possible, there is too much risk that it could go sideways and taking over a war torn Taiwan is not ideal. Ideally, they want to use clandestine means to accomplish their goals to maintain plausible deniability and have a low risk for blowback (e.g. using alleged kompromat playbook with the current Indonesian president, and alleged control of Hong Kong government officials).

If their intelligence services aren't successful in Taiwan, I don't put it past the CCP to invade and install a puppet. Russia has proven that no one wants world War 3. If they were to avoid a protracted engagement in Taiwan, I just don't see the United States risking attacking ccp forces when coming to the aid of Taiwan.

> Taiwan's not in the middle of being taken over by the mainland chinese government

Neither is Hong Kong; that happened in 1997.

You don't consider there to be marked change between the last few years and the previous 20? in law, application of authoritarian power, and crackdown on speech and democracy movements?

The change in law is not especially great. The change in exercise of power is bigger.

Crackdown on speech and democracy movements? If in one year, there are no protest movements and no crackdowns, and in a later year there are several protests and several crackdowns, has the level of cracking-down-on-protests gone up?

Both yes and I feel like you are purposefully ignoring recent events.

In recent history, there were record breaking, HUGE protests of thousands and thousands HKers with umbrellas, at first marching mostly unhindered and somewhat successful in at least postponing the illusion of democratic law.

Now, lighting a candle gets an activist arrested.

The situation in Taiwan for human rights, freedom of the press, freedom of speech and government non-interference of the Internet is radically different than in mainland china.