They may not be in the middle of being taken over, but the process has definitely started. Ccp jets are being flown into Taiwanese airspace constantly. I don't think China would risk looking weak by backing down and letting Taiwan be free.

And so to I doin't think (or minimally hope) that the US and democratic coalitions would risk looking weak by backing down and letting CCP call a bluff and thus ending our hegemony.

And Taiwan scrambles its own jets, so? This situation has been ongoing for years.

I'm not sure the fact that it's been going on for years makes it any less serious. It's an act of intimidation that is designed to drain the defense budget of Taiwan ([1]) while desensitizing and normalizing these incursions into Taiwanese air space. The carrots that the CCP are offering aren't very appetizing, but the way that they are wielding this massive sledgehammer of a stick forces Taiwan to stay at the negotiation table. There is nothing like what is happening there anywhere else in the world right now. There is a reason that they have spent billions of dollars on air defenses, they are rightfully terrified. China has made their intentions clear, they own Taiwan and they will bring them back into the fold one way or another.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/...

Negotiating for what? Taiwan is not giving up its democracy.

China is doing similar things to other SEA nations with their island building, and they do incursions on Japan for sure.

Expect the nature of the situation to change in the next ten years as these systems become more automated. Why become fatigued when your F-16s fly themselves.

Yea, exactly, it's bs. I really hope they can hold out and maintain a true democracy but Taiwan is one of the biggest priorities for the CCP, they are putting billions of dollars into bringing Taiwan back into the fold. I think they would probably like to avoid an armed conflict if at all possible, there is too much risk that it could go sideways and taking over a war torn Taiwan is not ideal. Ideally, they want to use clandestine means to accomplish their goals to maintain plausible deniability and have a low risk for blowback (e.g. using alleged kompromat playbook with the current Indonesian president, and alleged control of Hong Kong government officials).

If their intelligence services aren't successful in Taiwan, I don't put it past the CCP to invade and install a puppet. Russia has proven that no one wants world War 3. If they were to avoid a protracted engagement in Taiwan, I just don't see the United States risking attacking ccp forces when coming to the aid of Taiwan.

> Taiwan's not in the middle of being taken over by the mainland chinese government

Neither is Hong Kong; that happened in 1997.

You don't consider there to be marked change between the last few years and the previous 20? in law, application of authoritarian power, and crackdown on speech and democracy movements?

The change in law is not especially great. The change in exercise of power is bigger.

Crackdown on speech and democracy movements? If in one year, there are no protest movements and no crackdowns, and in a later year there are several protests and several crackdowns, has the level of cracking-down-on-protests gone up?

Both yes and I feel like you are purposefully ignoring recent events.

In recent history, there were record breaking, HUGE protests of thousands and thousands HKers with umbrellas, at first marching mostly unhindered and somewhat successful in at least postponing the illusion of democratic law.

Now, lighting a candle gets an activist arrested.