If China has hostile intent it also increases the risk of Chinese action, because - dependent on stockpiles and security - Taiwan is a resource choke point which could potentially decapitate the entire US military machine.
This is a terrible situation for the US to be in.
As the US replaces that capability on its home turf Taiwan's strategic value wanes, which paradoxically makes an attack less likely because China can get what it wants from Taiwan by conventional economic and political means.
The question is... how lucky/aggressive does China feel? And how just-in-time is the US military supply chain?
The military doesn't really worry much about price.
It's not just a price component, but a performance and viability of new designs one, at a time where the DoD internally is pushing ML hard as a major pillar of investment in weapons technology.
If you're TSMC or Samsung you probably had a conversation with US officials along the lines of: Build fabs in the US, or we will tariff and tax our way back to a mostly domestic, American owned industry. 60% of TSMC's sales are to the US customers. There's not much of a choice there.
Instead, this move ties the success of the American facility and the Taiwanese facility together, building a bond and interdependence.
Sort of.
TSMC's interests do not perfectly align with Taiwan's. TSMC putting fabs in the well-defended territory of its customers makes sense.
That said, China being able to credibly threaten a critical supply line is a security issue for America. It constrains U.S. response options to an invasion, threatened or acted upon. Removing that constraint does make Taiwan a bit less critical to America. But U.S.-Taiwanese relations predate TSMC. On the net, these plants free America to be more aggressive with China, which is broadly in Taiwan's interest.
Why now? In a word: automation. Semiconductor manufacturing has become far less labor intensive since TSMC was founded in 1987. That makes the American labor premium less material.
I think you're failing to take into account a number of things. First and foremost the very foundation of the US is based on respecting IP law given we're almost entirely an "information" society. If we suddenly steal TSMC's business secrets because it's convenient, what's preventing Europe and our allies from taking ours? Why would they respect IP law if we don't?
Second, regardless of the technical reliance we have on Taiwan, there's no planet on which the US wants China expanding and taking over other countries in Asia for political reasons.
The factories in the US ensure that the US keeps sending business to TSMC.
It probably comes with some benefits, but I doubt volunteering to be a potential hotspot for WW3 is really worth those benefits.
But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.
Not saying that you're wrong, because you seem much more informed and involved on/in this subject than I am, but from half the world away I can say that around 10 years or so ago that "certainty" wasn't that "certain", so to speak, at least not from what I could gather by reading the "local" press (mostly the Financial Times and The Economist).
Do you happen to have any resources available that further comment on that certainty? Again, not because I'm thinking that you're wrong, but because I'm really curious about this subject (there was a similar Taiwan-related post on the front-page of this website a few days ago but it dropped off pretty quickly).
> To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission
Taiwan is definitively on the next because it is way too close in distance to China for its own good.
No, I was looking for sources that would talk about the "certainty" of invasion by China (in a large enough interval, from let's say tomorrow to 10-20 years into the future), like I said, about 10 years ago that was not the official discourse.
"Predicting the future" would be to ask for a specific date/time interval for that supposed invasion, which I did not ask for because that would have been a reasonably difficult task to predict, I concur.
The US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non CCP aligned Taiwan. The only thing that time and time again frustrated the ambitions of Great Powers has been geography. Taiwan is the cork in the bottle containing the PLAN within the first island chain, without which China can operate freely throughout the Pacific. Just about every projection has China become the world's largest economy. America's only play to maintain dominance is to make sure that the tyranny of geography restrains the Chinese from operating militarily as freely as they would want. Much American blood had been shed in winning the Pacific in the first place. America is willing to shed more blood to keep it that way.
imposing control on Hong Kong happened because it did not require high-stakes combat with a nuclear peer competitor
I'd bet on it happening during Xi's reign, as it's critical to his pursuit of legacy. He's obsessed with writing his own name into China's history, taking Taiwan (and simultaneously defeating the West as he does it) would be a very big stamp on that. It would formally signal China's new empire-like dominion over Asia.
I don't think the US will trade Taiwan as a bargaining chip. By the time the US is willing to trade it, China will fully understand it's not really worth bargaining over any longer. The time to bargain would be now, or in the recent past. If the US Government wanted to get something big for trading Taiwan, during the Trump Administration was the last time to do it (during max tensions), and the trade should have been North Korea being dismantled (as is; meaning the Kim family goes, the nukes go; only China could make that happen) and reunited with South Korea. The US Govt no doubt thinks their bargaining position is stronger than it actually is, and so doesn't think they needed to make such a trade, instead the US will get nothing and Taiwan will end up in China's hands regardless and North Korea will remain a key China pawn.
I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.
Every passing year brings China one step closer to demographic collapse, the inevitable consequence of the One Child policy, and China is well aware of this.
Japan is several decades ahead of China on the same path, its population has been declining since 2011, and they have not imploded yet.
CCP requires economic growth for popular support, this is one reason for the Belt and Road Initiative and other dumping policies, gotta keep those factories running at all costs. If growth stagnates or declines and unemployment spikes, things will get bloody.
Also China's demographic dividend will end while it's at a much lower stage of development than Japan in the 80s/90s. And unlike Japan, China's managed to piss off pretty much every major power who might have been inclined to help them.
Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
Taiwan was the United States' 13th largest goods export market in 2019.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china/taiwan
If you think the US doesn’t care about a Top 10 trade partner, and in particular the trade partner that houses TSMC, well have I got news for you. Do we care enough to go into a full-on firefight immediately? I don’t know. But we care enough that it would be a massive diplomatic row, and we’d almost certainly have a naval peacocking as a show of force. And nobody wants that right by South Korea, India, and Japan.
Why do you think the US is working with TSMC to build plants in the US and intel is building more facilities as well? It's fairly obvious nobody has any confidence in the long run that Taiwan will remain independent.
I assure you we have not seen the last of war. Ignoring or minimizing the possibility is self-destructive. You must acknowledge the possibility of disaster before you can engage in the active work of averting it.
Never even said that. Just saying the Taiwan situation is not going to start a massive conflict.
Additionally, world wars are never triggered intentionally. World War I broke out essentially because the decision makers ignored the wider consequences of +1'ing their opponent's military preparations (one author characterizes it as Europe sleepwalking into war). World War II broke out unexpectedly because Hitler underestimated the spine the Allies had when he requested they add Danzig to his list of silver platters. World War III will likely break out when someone crosses a red line to one party that isn't clearly communicated to another party--and a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is one of the likelier options on that list.
The only reason Taiwan "insists" on that is because of the threat of invasion if they declare independence. Just because a bully tells you to stop hitting yourself while they smack your hand into your face does not mean the bully is not doing the hitting.
Before this, the bully was the Taiwan government. Then they lost the mainland, and fled to Taiwan, where they got sheltered by the Americans.
And now, you’re saying that the government on the mainland is now the bully over little Taiwan.
But the fact remains, that the last stage of the Chinese Civil War is not over.
History is useless since none of the previous world wars had nuclear powers at play. You can't compare before and after. Like, not at all.
China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still.
They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done.
Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.
India is making strides but has internal issues and both China and Pakistan as border issues. South Korea has been under threat from the North for far too long.
It just makes financial sense to spread out to more stable regions of the world and to take the money offered when it shows up.
I figure we are still a decade or two out before Africa comes online and South and Central America will need to calm down to get good investment to spread about.
I am surprised Canada is not trying to get more of the action.
And I wil not be suspired if future POWER and Z are all Intel Fabbed.
2. Those Fabs are not leading edge and not target for the general consumer brands. The current target of 5nm in ~2024, a time when TSMC should be on 2nm GAAFET in their main Fab in Taiwan.
3. The only real reason is National Security, which is now being handled by Intel. These chip were used used and Fabbed by IBM and GF before GF's exit on leading edge.
4. 60% of TSMC's customers are US companies, but these US companies 's customer aren't 60% Americans. And not all Americans chips needs to be Fabbed locally.
I don't think the DoD is willing to put all of it's eggs in that one basket that hasn't been performing lately. Particularly when the DoD sees massive amounts of edge inference being a key weapons component going forward and they need newer nodes than 14nm+++++++.
Hard to blame them.
That is of course, as you said unless both Intel and Samsung seriously messed up their plan.
fucked, because we already have a foundry on US soil suckers. The whole point of TSMC being an ace card towards guaranteeing US defense coverage goes away the second you give it up. Ukraine is a perfect real life example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
It's certainly less risky for Taiwan for TSMC to be the one building and running the most high profile element of it than if it was someone else.