There are basically three groups of people now: those who are taking this seriously and social distancing, those who think this is some kind of hoax and are gleefully ignoring any advice or orders from the government, and those that are "essential" and have no choice in the matter.

The hoaxers are a clear and present threat to the essential workers. The number of MBTA staff infected with COVID-19 has more than doubled in the past week; they can't avoid people, and they're being infected by those who won't.

Vast simplification that undermines working-class people. Tens of millions of people have lost their job and income, while bills continue to accumulate. It's fair to acknowledge the potential risks of contracting COVID-19, and still decide, I'd prefer to work, observing sanitization & social distancing measures, than to have my entire financial life ruined.

We just had the NFL draft this week. Plenty of these players will have their bodies seriously harmed in the next few years, while others will get multiple concussions and potentially set themselves up for CTE or other brain damage. Not once did anyone raise any alarms about, maybe these young people shouldn't go into this line of work...

The 99% of us who are losing our jobs and eating through our savings shouldn't be forced into a moral dilemma of working to remain solvent vs. quarantine/distancing to protect others. This is entirely a failure of government to quickly and effectively manage the pandemic with country-wide health measures as well as adequate economic support, especially for the most vulnerable. A check for $1200 is an insult.

Your premise is moot. The economic support isn't there, whether or not people "should" face this decision, they are.

'thomasmcgalvin' stated that all non-essential workers are either taking COVID-19 seriously, or are hoaxers. He dismisses what is probably the majority of people -- normal working people who understand there is a risk, but who still want to work in order to avoid a personal economic disaster.

> Not once did anyone raise any alarms about, maybe these young people shouldn't go into this line of work...

Maybe you're just going for rhetorical force but you are factually wrong. Plenty of people have "raised alarms" about e.g. concussions caused by playing football.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22226487/nfl-concussions...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concussions_in_American_footba...

And there have been consequences.

https://www.nflconcussionsettlement.com/

First, you missed the main point of the comment, contrasting the way society reacts to different risks. Second, the consequences of concussions and CTE are well-known, that's why they make for a good example. Despite being aware that playing football increases one's risk, including the settlement you link to, there have not been any serious efforts to shut down the NFL -- or to ban college, high school or junior football (more dangerous due to the younger age of participants and exponentially higher number of players). The draft was televised for 3 days on 3 channels last week, the largest sports event in weeks, yet we heard no demands to shut down the NFL from Fauci, Birx, Cuomo, any mainstream media, politicians, WHO, doctors, etc.

For better or worse people play sports voluntarily because they enjoy it. That's very different than succumbing to a contagious viral infection, eh? I don't see what the two have to do with each other.

I feel for the people who have lost their jobs, I have family who have lost their jobs and are trying right now to figure out how to pay their May rent and bills and buy food. It's scary. My mom has lived in the same place so long that her rent is about 1/3 of what her neighbors pay. If she misses some payments I doubt they'll try to evict her, at least not for a few months anyway, but they will likely try to break her lease and charge her 3x her rent. She can't afford that and would be forced to move, probably to a different state. That alone could kill her from stress even before factoring in the additional exposure to possible infection. What I'm saying is, even though I'm a healthy computer nerd, this is still very personal for me.

FWIW I think the simplest thing would be for the government to just give people money. But what do I know?

I agree generally that at some point we will cross the line where the economic and financial harm will outweigh the harm from Covid-19. (The trick is know when that line is reached. Apparently the EPA values a human life at about $7m. Other calculation come to about $130k/year.)

Couple of point (all my opinions):

1. Without the "hoaxers" and deniers we would be able to trust the people to "observ[e][...] sanitization & social distancing measures". To some extend the strict measures are necessary due to those groups.

2. Concussions are not contagious, so the NFL players are making decisions about their own health only. With Covid-19 you take responsibility for _other_ people.

3. The fact that one can be financially ruined this way points to deeper problems in society that should be fixed. Rather than forcing sick people back to work and putting the ethical dilemma of working vs. the safety of others on them, we should support those in need.

High-school and junior-league football involves far more participants, at much greater risk, due to their still-developing bodies and brains, with much less ability to make wise decisions about their long-term health. Yet despite research clearly demonstrating risks, virtually all attempts to reduce or ban it have failed. Gov Cuomo certainly isn't having daily press conferences about it.

>> Bills seeking to ban tackle football for kids under 12 or 14 have been proposed — and failed — in five states to date

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/03/04/football-ba...

>> none of those proposed bans have come close to being passed into law

https://www.boston.com/sports/parenting/2019/03/03/massachus...

FWIW, I agree with you. I don't watch football, and I strongly believe that these kids should be protected.

At the same time you cannot _possibly_ be serious about equating the NFL drafts with the Corona virus safety measures in terms of their impact on other people and harm that can be caused!

That's like saying "Well, I might have engaged in risky behavior, but I won't practice safe sex now because these people I met last week didn't wear their seatbelts."

> Tens of millions of people have lost their job and income, while bills continue to accumulate.

The fact that the harm is this severe is a separate failure. Job losses hitting such a huge portion of the population don’t have to happen. Other countries have found ways to manage this with far less suffering.

> I'd prefer to work, observing sanitization & social distancing measures, than to have my entire financial life ruined.

It’s not just your health/life you are risking. The contacts you can’t avoid making (home, shops, medical appointments etc) are all directly impacted too.

> It's fair to acknowledge the potential risks of contracting COVID-19, and still decide, I'd prefer to work, observing sanitization & social distancing measures, than to have my entire financial life ruined.

In the places I've worked, it would be impossible to observe social distancing. Open office plans mean you're usually within six feet of someone else.

Sure, totally impossible ::eyeroll:: Open-office type jobs are overwhelmingly computer-facing and easy to do from home. Even if not, a bit of creativity goes a long way -- work in shifts, alternate which days people come in, spread out desks and utilize conference rooms for more space, wear masks.

Two decades ago I was discouraged from even hobby level soccer due to concussion concerns. In retrospect, the lack of exercise should probably have been a bigger health concern...

They made a whole movie about it and had congressional investigations and everything.

>than to have my entire financial life ruined.

You know we can just literally choose to not have this problem, instead of buying into other people's narratives.

>Not once did anyone raise any alarms about, maybe these young people shouldn't go into this line of work

Actually plenty of people do. It's just not a very thrilling subject to the U.S. populace.

>You know we can just literally choose to not have this problem, instead of buying into other people's narratives.

Try saying this after a few months of lockdown, when a severely damaged economy leads to food shortages, and printing money does nothing to help.

There is no evidence that we are headed toward food shortages. We actually have surpluses. The issue now and in the future is one of alignment and market forces.

The economy cannot be modelled as a linear system; it is a pseudo-chaotic system.

If one poorly-chosen element is labelled as a "non-essential business", it can cause all the other metaphorical Jenga blocks to collapse.

Yeah, this is just like the WHO announcing "no evidence" antibodies provide some immunity. It just means no one has done a scientific study of how to collapse the food supply on a massive scale. These sorts of "everything is peachy neat keeno" claims are like Fauci saying the "risk to the US is low" back in February. There is a nontrivial risk we are headed toward food shortages. We should get back in a safer, more well understood configuration for food production and distribution.

So you believe the ability to produce food, which we've historically produced too much of and let go to waste, is just going to poof into thin air because a select portion of the population doesn't have money flow.

What a ridiculous statement.

> we can just literally choose to not have this problem

how can people facing financial ruin right now choose not to have it?

That clearly isn't what they mean, they are talking about society taking steps to minimize the financial harm.

The feasibility of succeeding at that is a different thing than your question.

So technically correct is the best kind of correct? The feasibility of succeeding makes the point moot, and frankly makes it sound like puerile moralizing. You might as well say, in the wake of a murder, "well your society could stop murder altogether if they decided not to kill each other".

Especially considering that we've already passed the largest economic bailout/safety net measures in world history in a matter of 3 weeks, and it looks like more is on the way. It would seem that "society" is doing its best over here given the realities of the situation, theoretical Kumbaya ideals aside.

Nothing about technically correct, just pointing out that I thought they had misread and failed to address the comment they replied to.

For a gun analogy, I go with it's like if someone said "We could choose to make it much more difficult to own a handgun" and then someone fired back with a rejoinder about that not helping the people getting shot right now. The rejoinder doesn't address the statement.

>You know we can just literally choose to not have this problem, instead of buying into other people's narratives.

No, you can't. Goods and services are scarce, legislating them to every person in a country does not lead to everyone getting them.

> The hoaxers

A minor but salient point: in common usage, a hoaxer would be a person perpetrating a hoax, not a person who believes (incorrectly) that someone else is perpetrating a hoax. The people who you are referring to hear are better labelled "denialists" than "hoaxers".

The irony is that misinformation campaigns are the actual hoax here... calling them "hoaxers" is more accurate than you suggest.

The real lesson I got from the article is that politicians are the worst face of a pandemic response: it risks that half of the populace will do the opposite of the advice given.

Once the issue is politicized, that snowballs -- propaganda has infected modern discourse to a disturbing degree, and it's hard to see well-organized denialism being amplified by far-right media as anything but a cold-hearted hoax.

> misinformation campaigns are the actual hoax

That simply begs the question. Whether you label it "hoax" or "misinformation" doesn't matter. What matters is whether or not something someone says corresponds to actual truth. The beauty of science is that you don't have to take anyone's word for anything, you can actually go and do the experiment for yourself. So by all means, if you think Donald Trump is on to something and the press and the scientists are all conspiring against him to make him look bad for political reasons, then do the experiment: go inject yourself with bleach. I won't stand in your way. But I will give you long odds that it won't end well for you.

I think he is using it in the same spirit as the word "truther".

I think so too, but it still breaks the language by rendering the main word we have for "someone who perpetuates a hoax" ambiguous.

Yes, but the difference is that "hoaxer" is already an English word with an established meaning, namely, one who perpetrates a hoax. "Truther" did not already have an established meaning before it was coined to mean what it does.

I think by reversing the meaning of the word hoaxer he can maintain the same rhetoric from his 2016 election to secure his next presidency while making 180 degree turn on what he is actually selling. The democrats will all fall over each other commenting how Trump bends the truth. This will waist so much attention time of the people that could have been used to actual sell on important issues. Donald steered the conversation once again captures momentum and wins.

We're not stopping the spread of covid, with or without "hoaxers", this is going to run its course.

We're just slowing it to a manageable rate with fairly extreme measures like lock-downs (which will likely be loosening soon anyways), and I don't see small pockets of uncooperative people making a sizable difference in the general outcome, not at this stage.

I think it is disingenuous to imply that the only people on public transit right now are those working there and those ignorant people treating it all as a hoax and taking the transit anyway.

You would be surprised to find out how many of essential workers rely on public transport to get to their jobs.

I was only using the MBTA as an example of essential workers. There is a large segment of the public that is fucked right now because we need them to work, and have no way to protect them. The fact that there is a large segment of the population that is happy to spread this virus only exacerbates the issue.

Yep. Thank both the greed of the ruling class and the cowardice of the serf class to assent to even more dire poverty. A few UBI crumbs "that will last 10 weeks" could be the "let them eat cake"-moment, but it is extremely unlikely because the vasty majority of people are cowards and will take any injustice over a barrel because they believe they have no power (learned helplessness).

> Thank both the greed of the ruling class

He didn't say "they need to work" (although they might). He said "we need them to work".

No matter how greedy the ruling class might be, we still need medical people to staff hospitals, police to police, firemen, etc. These people are not serfs or cowards because they're going to their jobs.

I’m seeing a lot of in between in my own friend/friend of friends networks. Particularly in SF it seems a lot of people don’t quite think this is a hoax, but just aren’t very concerned and are stretching the boundaries of the stay at home order as much as they can. Big groups are meeting up in parks where they don’t all live walking distance away, just hanging out having picnics. Lots of people are eating together in the street outside of takeout places. And lots of politicians are even encouraging this kind of thing.

So aside from the shit show of the Trump administration, I’m not seeing even the areas that are being praised as being the “best” in America really take this seriously.

At this point, it looks like we’re way off the trajectory of squashing the outbreak. The curve has plateaued, but we aren’t on track to get the numbers low enough to safely open businesses again and go back to containment and contact tracing. We’re failing at the “hammer” stage of the hammer and the dance, and it seems to me like the probable outcome at this point is a whack a mole of continuous, half hearted hammering for the next year or more where we won’t be able to lift this lockdown much at all.

Maybe you’ve stopped seeing friends but still have sex your non-cohabitating partner. Maybe you went for a walk with a friend and tried to keep 6 feet away but slipped up. Maybe there was an emotional moment and you touched them before you could think. Maybe you had one person over for a special occasion.

Lots of people have at least some intention to take it seriously, but not the steely heart for the hardcore isolation that’s required.

> basically three groups of people now

I can imagine more groups. For example people might need to get out of the city/house for psychological reasons. Taking a small chance to get/spread the virus might be better than hurting oneself/others.

I agree. I think the issue with mask recommendations was ultimately that politicians/public health officials were worried people would put on a mask and then feel invincible, therefore leading to more spread.

I think that is the case with lots of calls to re-open now. There are so many businesses that could return safely now if people followed safety protocol, but realistically not only will there be unintentional safety errors but loosening of some government restrictions will lead to the loosening of people's personal safetly restrictions they have been doing since the start.

The world isn't software engineering; if anything, it's philosophy.

I look at it this way, and it sounds harsh but it's big-time decision-making life:

1. You could compel people to listen to something to ensure their safety by force, and then have a riot.

OR

2. You could urge sensible people do something for their own safety while letting the idiots commit suicide and clean-up the gene pool in the process.

I say take option #2 all-day, everyday because it's easier, cheaper, and better for others who do listen to have one less fewer, stupid liability in the world who would otherwise put others in danger.

The idiots in question are endangering not only themselves, but everyone they come in contact with. This includes essential workers in transport, medicine, and retail. They also exacerbate the strain on critical health infrastructure. Preventing the collapse of critical medical infrastructure is the primary objective of social distancing.

Attending an anti-lockdown protest without taking proper social distancing measures is more akin to driving drunk on the freeway than it is to shooting heroin into one's veins. The latter can in many circumstances be understood to have negligible impact on the rights of others, the former cannot.

The question of "at what point do social distancing measures overstep the legitimate exercise of government power" is a nuanced one. It requires weighing individuals rights against one another in a situation where cause and effect are at best thinly statistical, emergent from collective behavior, and regionally variable (NYC != rural Kentucky).

No government is going to get their response to COVID-19 100% right, but I'm pretty sure focusing exclusively on individual self-harm would be an abysmal heuristic.

Option 2 doesn't really work with an exponential process. There are people who have to work for society to continue functioning who have no choice but to be exposed to the "idiots", and even people able to self-isolated generally cannot completely remove encounters that could cause infection, but instead just greatly reduce them.

Correct. Other people's idiotic choices have deadly implications for everyone else. That's why we can't just let people ignore this problem. They don't just hurt themselves.

At the same time, we can't just let zeal/fear drive us into making the short-term safest choices that may not be safest in the long run. I do think we're overshooting the other way.

How would you know? I'm not being snarky, I'm asking, what are the concrete metrics that would let us gauge our optimal reaction?

- Infection fatality rate -- this looks to be 1/5th or lower than what we thought getting into this.

- Infection hospitalization rate -- similar.

- Probability of getting a vaccine in a moderately quick timeframe -- I'd call this one 50/50. Hard to bet on.

- How long it takes case counts to decay to a point where a contact tracing regime works -- This really depends. It looks like to me that in the US jurisdictions with the best controls, Rt =~ 0.6. This will take a -long- time to decay to the 1 case per million threshold where contact tracing, etc works; 6 months or more. Some models put the decay much quicker, at like a month from now, but I cannot understand why.

- Efficacy of a herd immunity strategy / serology information from various jurisdictions -- looking hopeful, but imperfect information. Sweden is getting there...

- Critical care utilization. In the SF Bay Area, we're below seasonal norms and COVID-19 cases in ICU have been (very slowly) decaying for the past 3 weeks.

- Seasonal effects. We don't really know, but it looks like there is probably a small seasonal swing to Rt. Seasonal effects justify more dramatic action either direction (containment or relaxation). Containment efforts will be made more effective during summer, but it's also an ideal time to experiment with loosening controls while seasonal factors are on our side.

Cheers!

Did you watch "Avenue 5"? It's dumb, but it's got Hugh Laurie, so I did.

The thing is, it's really dark. I have a pretty dark streak in my sense of humor, but were are a lot of moments when I thought to myself, "Did these guys forget that this show bills itself as a comedy?"

SPOILER ALERT

I think the most horrible scene was when some of the passengers get the idea that they aren't really trapped in space, that it's all a simulation and they're really on Earth after all. And so they decide they want to leave. Through the airlock...

And Captain Laurie and the engineer who won't shut up about being underappreciated by the morons around her (Why would you care about their opinions? They're morons) are in between them and the airlock.

Now maybe this means I'm a bad person, but my first gut reaction was, "Hey, let them go outside. It's evolution in action. A problem that solves itself, yeah?"

But then my real self kicks in and points out that, unless I try my very hardest to prevent these fucking morons from sucking vacuum, letting them spacewalk sans spacesuit is tantamount to murder. And I'm not a murderer.

Even though they are useless fucking morons who seemingly only exist to cause problems, standing by and letting them kill themselves is wrong. You'll hate yourself if you do.

That's the downside of self-awareness and intelligence. If you are the only person on the spaceship who knows the score guess where the buck stops?

Yes, the moment you mention was among the most affecting of the first season. The scene is constructed diabolically to ratchet up the mob mentality — where people are just acting in the moment, purely emotionally.

I read the season as an allegory for where we are now politically. The captain is a figurehead, the passengers are readily manipulated, the far-off owners don’t care, yet everyone aboard is hurtling through space in a very complex machine that they don’t really understand.

Hugh Laurie is doing a great job in the show. Another draw is the creator, Armando Iannucci, who did Veep.

Doesn’t that all still make it dark and/or dry humor? Everyone has different levels of what they consider acceptable.

> The world isn't software engineering; if anything, it's philosophy.

Always follow the first link on a Wikipedia page (excluding parentheticals with etymology and pronunciation), rinse and repeat: you eventually end up at philosophy.

I would rather take 100 "idiots" in the gene pool for genetic diversity

Of course, "idiot" is pretty relative, and not everyone going out is an idiot, but that would undermine your eugenics argument