- Infection hospitalization rate -- similar.
- Probability of getting a vaccine in a moderately quick timeframe -- I'd call this one 50/50. Hard to bet on.
- How long it takes case counts to decay to a point where a contact tracing regime works -- This really depends. It looks like to me that in the US jurisdictions with the best controls, Rt =~ 0.6. This will take a -long- time to decay to the 1 case per million threshold where contact tracing, etc works; 6 months or more. Some models put the decay much quicker, at like a month from now, but I cannot understand why.
- Efficacy of a herd immunity strategy / serology information from various jurisdictions -- looking hopeful, but imperfect information. Sweden is getting there...
- Critical care utilization. In the SF Bay Area, we're below seasonal norms and COVID-19 cases in ICU have been (very slowly) decaying for the past 3 weeks.
- Seasonal effects. We don't really know, but it looks like there is probably a small seasonal swing to Rt. Seasonal effects justify more dramatic action either direction (containment or relaxation). Containment efforts will be made more effective during summer, but it's also an ideal time to experiment with loosening controls while seasonal factors are on our side.