Epidemiology is not putting numbers in excel and running a formula to generate a chart. Which seems like what half the world is doing now. US has already the same number of cases that Italy had one week ago when it had 4000 deaths (only 500 for US at this point). So some data is wrong and you can't model every country in the world based on data that is just plain misleading (Italy). Median age of tested people in Italy is 13.3 years higher than the general population median age, in Germany, the difference is just 0.7. Stop treating Italy as being the only point of truth and other countries (like Germany) like the anomaly.

I think people should be allowed to express a different opinion.

We should criticize and point out mistakes, but let's not demonize.

The world is complex and interdependent, overreacting can be just as bad as not doing anything, what we need to find is the right balance between the two approaches.

If we check back and he was right then what? You, like everyone else, will be elated.

Completely dismissing certain observations early on as 100% wrong is not the right approach. One has to navigate the path balancing the tradeoffs.

That rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so.

FWIW, at this point, it looks like NYC is going to take a huge hit and the other outbreaks (Seattle, California) will look mild comparitively.

Washington state doesn't have a statewide lockdown, I don't know if even Seattle has a lockdown. California is doing the best but there are still crowds defying the lockdown at beaches and parks. Just as much, grocery stores are open as usual and even with most people trying to do social distancing, I'm doubtful you're clamping that hard on the infection, unfortunately.

I think the best is that when fatalities spike here in California, we're in better shape to intensify the lockdown.

The measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Look at the data (in the presence of high testing):

https://covid-19.direct/state/WA

If you look at thermometer data (less accurate, but a good predictor), there's little problem going forward in either state. (but serious problems in the NY metro area):

https://healthweather.us/

To my eyes, California just looks slower exponential and Washington is ambiguous. A few days of non-growth can be randomness or reporting problems.

But I hope you're right! We all need to do our parts.

I'd also note that things are getting "hot" in other states and each has it's problems.

At least some of WA's lower numbers recently were due to fewer tests performed.

Washington does as of 5:00 pm PDT today.

I've dug through everything I can find. I'm feeling really stupid at the moment, but I cannot find a confirmation of that 5pm start time, though it does appear to start today and "immediately." It runs through April 6, but could be extended.

Tweet is from 6:50pm: https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090

https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-sta...

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamation...

That’s when the announcement of it was broadcast, which is why I used that time.

Thanks.

> There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so.

Why do you think that?

I have no strong opinion but I really hope that the fact that the US is not dense, and people are not very tactile, compared to European cities will help us.

Deaths lag measures by more than that. We might see Washington’s measures kicking in strong by then but NY will probably be some time.

Yes, death lags and testing is inaccurate. We're flying blind.

I wonder. Willing to admit incorrect if parent prediction proves true? Or pivot if not to a new supposition and declare victory? (I'd say 3.5 weeks myself.)

I fear we will be well past 10,000 deaths in the US in 2 weeks.

Well deaths in the US only for flu were 50,000 last year. Still 5x less.

Corvid 19 deaths are doubling every 3 days in US and a few other countries. Do the extrapolation.

In 47 days, twice the population of the Earth will be dead.

Of humans or crows?

Even in Italy, the National Health Institute said that 88% of the declared "dead by covid19" had in fact at least 1 or 2 other pre-morbidities.

If a 80 years old dies from heart attack and is tested positive by covid19, it will count as "dead by covid19".

The numbers we see in the news of "CFR" for the covid19 are, in my opinion, inaccurate. The number only shows the spread of the infection, not its actual fatality rate.

CFR is a death rate of the population with particular medical conditions by definition. It is a correct usage.

CFR doesn't translate to the additional death rate, but it does contribute to the death rate by unspecified amount. In particular high enough CFR directly translates to the additional death rate when it exceeds the original crude death rate.

In anything Italy is undercounting covid-19 deaths:

The mayor of Bergamo, a city in northern Italy devastated by coronavirus, said on Monday that the actual death toll from the pandemic is likely several times higher than official count.

Giorgio Gori told NBC News on Monday that the total deaths in Bergamo are three to four times higher than during an average year, signaling that the virus is killing many more people than medical authorities have reported.

"We [have] evidence now in our territories that many people are unfortunately dying in their homes or in the residence for [seniors]," Gori said via Skype. "They are not officially tested because the test is only for people that go to the hospital with serious symptoms."

Doctors are also reporting that patients who seem to be improving are suddenly arresting due to the virus. So counting those victims as "dead by covid19" seems to be correct.

Trillions will die.

You can only extrapolate so far.

People seem like computers these days: they only think in logarithms, they "forget" to add some common sense.

The number of coronavirus deaths is already over 10,000:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Updated: comment was only for US since John is based at Stanford.

China quarantined 700 million of its citizens for fun and it still killed thousands. I'm sure that they regret the policies they implemented right now as they've finally gotten a hold of the outbreak.

Edit: I was being sarcastic here. China messed up the initial response but their draconian tactics worked well.

Why would they regret it? I don’t follow your reasoning. They got a hold of the outbreak precisely because they ramped up quarantining

I was being sarcastic.... it never translates well over text.

I must have have a naturally sarcastic inner monologue, because your sarcasm came through loud and clear to me.

I thought it was so outlandish that no one could actually believe it. Then I thought about my crazy uncle who still thinks this is a bioweapon released by the Chinese on its own citizens.

Yes, only thousands. The point of the quarantine was to avoid deaths of millions. China has flattened thoer curve, no one else has.

South Korea has. It's still going up but it's flatter than it was: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html