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Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by justinzollars on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:06PM (#22394621)
It's impossible to build anything here. This overregulation at work. I wrote a blog post about a plot of land in Bolinas which I hoped to build something on:

http://jz.io/2018/05/12/development-is-difficult-in-californ...

TLDR there is triple overlap of legal authorities (City, State and County) who prevent you from building anything, with a 48 year old "water emergency" in place.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by JMTQp8lwXL on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:19PM (#22395120)
I have anecdotally heard people regularly ignore the standard permitting processes and the state lacks the bandwidth for enforcing code violations. Not for huge scale projects, but more for SFH-type improvements.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:11AM (#22395270)
One contractor I spoke to in SF said maybe 50% of people get permits for renovations.

If you do pull permits, it costs $1,500 or so and your property taxes will go up.

Apparently if you get busted, they just make you pay plus a small penalty.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by ping_pong on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:49AM (#22395364)
Almost no one in SF gets permits unless it's for something big enough that your neighbors will narc on you for. Most houses that are for sale will have some form of unpermitted work done on it.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Sunday February 23, 2020 @01:45AM (#22395508)
The drawback of not getting permits is that permitted work is valued higher when it comes to resale.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by ping_pong on Sunday February 23, 2020 @01:47AM (#22395512)
Not in SF from what I've seen. Unpermitted work is so common that people basically don't care anymore. Maybe in other cities where it's more common to get permits, it will definitely make a difference, but not in SF.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by Retric on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:39PM (#22394733)
You say that yet there is still adding more space for jobs than housing. That’s the core issue, if new jobs > new housing the situation gets worse. If new housing > new jobs the situation gets better.

Retrofit some office space as apartments and you quickly fix the issue without any new buildings. You could even just remove some office buildings and replace them with parks for a similar net effect.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by thereisnospork on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:58PM (#22394798)
Choking the economy by limiting jobs is hardly a reasonable solution to limited housing. You are also presuming that it is easier to build offices than apartments, and easier to get permits, do environmental studies, appease NIMBY groups, and navigate the lawsuits necessary to turn offices into apartments.

More directly to the point: with current residential rents there should be a lot of money in doing just what you are proposing, and yet the real estate developers aren't.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by Decade on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:46PM (#22394979)
It absolutely is easier to build offices than apartments. And I don’t have a lot of physical needs; I would live in the office if it were legal.

As it is, at my previous job the company allocated a room to be the nap room, but instead turned it into a meditation/massage room because sleeping is forbidden in commercial zoning.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by intpbro on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:22PM (#22395131)
Yeah, that’s because you’re trying to build in Bolinas....
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:19PM (#22394664)
Shhh, the city and state governments don’t want people to know that they are the reason we have a housing crisis. It’s much better to blame rich people, tech companies, foreign investors etc etc.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by thrower123 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:55PM (#22395014)
How the hell there isn't a giant apartment complex mandated, rather than forbidden, as part of these big tech company campuses is something I've scratched my head on.

My best theory is that having to sing "Sixteen Tons" day after day in music classes has forever vilified anything approaching the idea of a company town...

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jayd16 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:00PM (#22395038)
A lot of new construction is residential on top of light commercial. In Culver City (in the middle of LA) they're supposedly building offices for Apple and Amazon which has adjacent housing being constructed as well (although not stacked).
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by erik_seaberg on Sunday February 23, 2020 @04:23PM (#22399626)
I think the Googleplex is built around wetlands where land use is heavily restricted, and they couldn't get permission to add any housing.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:29PM (#22394914)
That's pretty clear.

If the gov't (at all levels) really wanted more housing, it could happen pretty dam quickly. There is enough capital floating around out there.

Problem is the capital says "not worth the hassle" or "with all the delays and costs, it's not worth it".

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by toomuchtodo on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:28PM (#22394698)
1) "Rich people" want their property values to be stable or increase. They want their communities to be somewhat static. If I paid $1MM+ for a property in a dense CA metro, I can't say that'd I'd disagree with those desires. I'm buying a home and a location, not "housing" as a commodity.

2) Tech companies unnecessarily demand butts in chairs in the Bay Area, foisting the externalities onto the commons (infrastructure and housing). Tax them more if they won't go remote/support remote work. Destroy demand for dense housing and the associated infrastructure.

3) It's documented that there's substantial Chinese money flowing into specific US markets (the US isn't alone of course; Canada, Australia, and the UK also have this problem). This pushes up the price of real estate, whether these properties are lived in or simply used as a store of value outside of the CCP's reach.

Due to property owner/voter and governance momentum, it is unlikely you will see the will to increase development inertia in any California market that requires it, ever. Your options are to complain and put up with it, find an economic path to leaping onto the ownership ladder ("startup lottery", inheritance, etc), or eventually abandoning hope and moving somewhere cheaper/more development friendly (such as Colorado, Texas, Utah, Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida, etc).

Disclaimer: Not a CA resident, too expensive!

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by marcusverus on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:56PM (#22394790)
Houstonian here. We have plenty of rich people, more fortune 500 companies than San Francisco, wads Chinese-owned properties, and a median home price of $230K. The difference is the regulations, my dude.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jaredklewis on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:32PM (#22394922)
And one very specific kind of regulation at that: zoning laws. I could imagine a complex system of zoning laws maybe working, if they were written by urban planning experts with a genuine interest in the greater good.

California’s zoning laws are cobbled together by the total opposite: ordinary local officials with a myopic focus on the interests of current property owners and a general hostility to anyone else.

Houston zoning really is a breath of fresh air.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by blululu on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:06AM (#22395258)
Zoning is a part of the difference, but recall that Texas also has 1.8% property tax (~top 5 nationally). That really changes the incentives for land owners & developers.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by seanmcdirmid on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:49PM (#22394989)
Houston is flat, not hemmed in by mountains or water, and hasn’t really been worried about sprawl. I’m sure it isn’t the worst place in the world, but it isn’t on my list, at least, even if the housing is cheap. At the end of the day, supply and demand are real market movers.

As far as Texas goes, what about Austin? Housing is probably cheaper, but rising quickly because of tech interests. Houston, on the other hand, should be suffering from a downturn in the oil sector.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jimthrow on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:03PM (#22395053)
Nope. If you count growth by population increases, Houston is growing more than 4 times faster than SF and still able to keep housing costs low.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by marcusverus on Sunday February 23, 2020 @08:29AM (#22396737)
Median income / median home

Houston: 63k / 230k Austin: 55k / 230k Dallas: 52k / 223k SF: 90k / 1,200k LA: 64k / 723k Sacramento: 67k / 350k

Based on a quick Google search.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by enraged_camel on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:27PM (#22394908)
I think Houston is not just a bad counter-example, it's the worst counter-example. It not only has really horribly high pollution[0], but enormous amounts of urban sprawl[1]. It's not exactly the model city to look up to.

It's also worth noting that the lack of regulations that Houstonians take pride in contributed to the devastation caused by Harvey in a big way.

[0]: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/...

[1]https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/urban-sprawl-worst-c...

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:35PM (#22394936)
It's not exactly the model city to look up to.

And California cities are?

Did you look at the rankings in your source? Houston comes in at #9 in terms of worst air pollution.

#1-#8 are all California cities, with the exception of one in Arizona.

In fact, California cities rank the highest in air pollution across all the measures.

[1]https://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/sota/city-r...

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by enraged_camel on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:57PM (#22395023)
>>And California cities are?

No, I did not say California cities are, for precisely the reasons you stated in fact!

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:15AM (#22395280)
Huh?

You said Houston is "the worst counter-example" to San Francisco because the pollution is so high.

Yet, pollution is worse in in the bay area than Houston.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by auspex on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:10PM (#22395089)
Regulations? OK.. they contribute but Houston is not an equal conparison to the bay area. Weather, nature and immense opportunity. Also there is no more land. Mountains on one side and water on the other.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jariel on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:50PM (#22394995)
The difference in demand for SF vs Houston as well as salaries and equity buyouts cannot be ignored.

SF/Bay/North Cal is a very aspirational place, Houston is not.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by xyzzyz on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:06PM (#22395069)
Salaries in SFBA are higher, but not 5 times higher than in Houston, while houses are in fact over five times more expensive.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jariel on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:06AM (#22395257)
Salaries do not need to be 5x in order to have 5x housing, that's not how supply and demand works.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jimthrow on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:05PM (#22395063)
Poop town SF is becoming less aspirational by the year.

And can you really say SF is aspirational if Houston is growing 4 times faster?

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jariel on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:25AM (#22395303)
Neither of these items are true.

As globalization increases, there is ever more increasing demand for SF/Bay real estate, it's becoming ever more elite due to the fixed nature of housing.

'All things being equal' in terms of cost, SF would be the choice 8 times out of 10 for people as a destination. SF boundaries are fixed, housing is limited, Houston is large and has room for new housing; Houston's growth is due to affordability, not because it's aspirational.

'Tourism' isn't a perfect estimation of livable aspiration, I mean, Orlando gets massive numbers of visitors each year, but SF gets a huge number of visitors as well without 'Disneyland/Epcot' to draw them in, even with a relatively small population, it's a top tourist destination in the US. [1]. Houston doesn't get a lot of tourists.

Also, Houston's population growth has slowed dramatically, with new births accounting for more than the ingress population this year.

[1] https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-visited-cities-...

With worker mobility ever increasing in this world, the demand for the 'nice spots' skyrockets.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by tjr225 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:59PM (#22395036)
You really don't get what's at play, my dude.

It's cheaper in Houston because people don't want to live in Houston- at least not nearly to the same degree.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:25PM (#22395141)
Hmmm... then why is the population growth so much higher than SF?
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by JMTQp8lwXL on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:46PM (#22395204)
Because the homes and jobs available in Houston strike a price point that makes sense for certain incomes. Households making $200k+ per year are migrating to California, many from New York. Californians with middle income ($40k-$90k) are migrating to Texas [0].

The number of households between 40k-90k is greater than the over 200k group.

[0]: https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by tjr225 on Sunday February 23, 2020 @09:04AM (#22396855)
Because they can't afford to live in SF- which is largely constrained by physical barriers to growth.

I do agree anti building regulations are bad and somewhat at fault but it's not an apples to apples comparison by any means.

Rich people want to live on the west coast because it's beautiful and the weather is pretty nice. In fact I wish I could live on the west coast but could no longer afford to once the baby came along and my wife and I decided to go single income.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by wbl on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:38PM (#22394727)
If you want to restrict what your neighbor can build buy an easement. Otherwise talk to the invisible hand.

California makes money off of me being in it. Why is it good policy to drive an industry out?

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by toomuchtodo on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:39PM (#22394735)
> If you want to restrict what your neighbor can build buy an easement. Otherwise talk to the invisible hand.

I'm sorry you're unhappy with how zoning and local governance exists today, but that's the hand that has been dealt.

> California makes money off of me being in it. Why is it good policy to drive an industry out?

If you're happy with the quality of life available with the status quo (renting forever with rents continually increasing faster than inflation), feel free to stay. It's your income; if you want to rent forever, that's your choice.

Owning in a high cost of living geographic area is not a right, it is a luxury obtained mostly by luck (either through a purchase before property value increased or a present day windfall of some sort, whether that's an inheritance, the startup lottery, or a high single or dual income that can support servicing a large amount of mortgage debt).

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by thereisnospork on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:01PM (#22394808)
> I'm sorry you're unhappy with how zoning and local governance exists today, but that's the hand that has been dealt.

A hand that has resulted in the ""housing crisis"" which is why we are here talking about why and how it should be changed.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by toomuchtodo on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:40PM (#22394956)
No one with the authority to change it is talking about changing it. No one invested in the status quo is willing to delegate the necessary authority to YIMBYs or their surrogates.

You’d be asking existing and potential property owners to vote against their own interests. Progress isn’t impossible, but it’s going to take decades to make meaningful reforms.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by closeparen on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:16AM (#22395282)
The NIMBYs are so stunningly effective because they're the only people engaged on the issue, not because their values are actually universal.

Like anything else in politics, it's a turnout game. Development regulation is an obscure issue. There's a lot of room for people who would be okay with denser cities (and thus haven't paid attention) to learn about it and show up.

And then of course there's the movement we're already seeing in state legislatures.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by toomuchtodo on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:19PM (#22398057)
We’re saying the same thing: progress might eventually occur, but the outcomes will be for the next generation of CA residents.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by darksaints on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:19PM (#22395123)
> Owning in a high cost of living geographic area is not a right

Neither is a specific type of zoning. Your rights as a property owner are explicitly listed on your deed. Zoning is not one of them, and you have no basis to feel entitled to preservation of your neighborhood in the state it was when you bought it.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by benmaraschino on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:52AM (#22395374)
> Owning in a high cost of living geographic area is not a right, it is a luxury obtained mostly by luck

This is kind of a weird take. Whether someone can afford to fulfill as basic of a need as housing shouldn't be about luck, no matter the qualities of the area concerned. It's kind of like saying whether someone can afford to eat on a given day should be based on luck—we would think that's crazy, and for good reason. The housing crisis is currently ripping families and friendships apart, not to mention fraying the very fabric of civic and community life—all so a select few lucky folks can feel like they've made it. House prices in the Bay Area (and in other currently high-priced metros) will revert, sooner or later, but in the meantime, we're willing to cause a lot of pain and suffering in the name of picking winners and losers, if only momentarily. And speaking as someone who owns a home in a desirable part of the Bay Area and is 100% pro-housing, I don't really get it. It's really sad to see a lot of my neighbors supporting regressive anti-housing policy—it's almost like sociopathy on a massive scale.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by gradys on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:53PM (#22394775)
> Tech companies unnecessarily demand butts in chairs in the Bay Area, foisting the externalities onto the commons (infrastructure and housing).

I'm not so sure it's unnecessary. I (and my employer) find it very useful that I have so many colleagues within walking distance of my desk and that we have centralized meeting, event, and dining infrastructure.

I also find it very useful to have so many other employers nearby that I could work at if this job doesn't work out. My employer finds it very useful to have such a large local labor market for the kinds of roles they need to fill.

I'm not opposed to income and property taxes on these marginal increases in productivity that the tech industry gets in the Bay Area, but I strongly disagree that the industry's large presence is somehow inefficient. The tech industry actually uses the resources of the area more efficiently than other industries because of these network effects.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jdminhbg on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:27PM (#22394905)
> "Rich people" want their property values to be stable or increase. They want their communities to be somewhat static. If I paid $1MM+ for a property in a dense CA metro

If you buy a $1MM home you are rich, no scare quotes required! I think this explains a lot of the dynamic: rich people do not believe they are rich.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by refurb on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:31PM (#22394920)
Tech companies unnecessarily demand butts in chairs in the Bay Area

Only in California would people complain "there are too many high paying jobs being created".

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by ijidak on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:00PM (#22394803)
Add Nevada to that list.

Las Vegas is basically Southern California relocated to the closest big city that's building houses.

My family transplanted from Santa Barbara.

And my wife is a transplant from San Diego.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by seanmcdirmid on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:55PM (#22395013)
But Las Vegas has always been like that since it was just a few billboards and a gas station. Most people in Nevada are transplants. And the rest are children or grandchildren of transplants, primarily from California.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by Camillo on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:36PM (#22394938)
> 2) Tech companies unnecessarily demand butts in chairs in the Bay Area, foisting the externalities onto the commons (infrastructure and housing). Tax them more if they won't go remote/support remote work. Destroy demand for dense housing and the associated infrastructure.

Can this be quantified? When people complain about increased housing demand due to tech, clearly they're not talking about existing CA residents taking up tech jobs (since they already lived there), so we're talking about people immigrating to CA (from other states or countries) to work in tech. But how much does that actually contribute to housing demand?

Let's see some numbers. What percentage of California's population growth since 1978 (prop 13 year) was due to immigration (vs natural pop growth), and what percentage of those immigrants came to work in tech?

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by mistrial9 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @09:58PM (#22394795)
really? Bolinas? that is the example... thats almost irrational, and really building there would benefit almost no one but you
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by joe_the_user on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:28PM (#22395154)
Just to elaborate. Bolinas is a town in Western Marin County. It's a significant drive on winding, hard to maintain roads (highway 1 and others) from any location even in wealthy, isolated Marin County. It was once a hippy town but is now, naturally, a preserve of the very wealthy but regardless of cost, with no jobs in the area, only tourists and the wealth would buy development there.

It seems like the State and YIMBY or whoever should push housing near transportation as well as denser housing. This is obviously not that.

If you read the GP's post, you'll notice they're complaining about not being able to build on an irregular parcel in Marin that's advertised for $12K. Of course, the parcel is that cheap because you can't build on it. The GP should save their complaints for problems that make sense. Complaints about not being able to build in Mountain View make sense, this doesn't.

Altogether, the problems of US housing comes from too much low density housing and too little high density. Given this, keeping people from building on marginal locations is not the worse sin, to say the least.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by JMTQp8lwXL on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:39PM (#22395182)
If zoning or regulations ever change, the $12k parcel could appreciate significantly, assuming it's actually buildable.
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by flomo on Sunday February 23, 2020 @01:43AM (#22395504)
Thanks for posting this explanation. Bolinas is also pretty infamous as the only town in California that Caltrans can't post a sign pointing too.

It does hit on the fundamental Bay Area issue that almost all water is imported, and there are significant restrictions on development because of that. Almost all of the land surrounding the populated bay is part of a public & ngo "green belt". In the Bay Area, there really is not just some new amazing new places to build. We must build up.

Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by mistrial9 on Friday February 28, 2020 @11:41AM (#22444013)
in Contra Costa county (many affluent suburbs and converted acreage) the home-owners marched en masse to a County Supervisors meeting where a tiered pricing of water was on the table.. with One Thousand Gallons a DAY being at the top.. and, huge resistance from "home" owners.. the Supervisors caved, and the measure failed.. this is pre-drought 1990s California Bay Area.. absolutely true
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by intpbro on Saturday February 22, 2020 @11:22PM (#22395134)
I know, right...
Re:A Brief History of California’s Housing Crisis by jayd16 on Saturday February 22, 2020 @10:52PM (#22395004)
Aren't California cities already the most dense in the US short of New York? We could perhaps do more but it doesn't seem right to say its impossible to build.