There are similar issues with the “back to sleep” campaign - the risk of SIDS apparently is indeed Slightly lower for babies sleeping on their back, but it is only very slightly lower, and some babies will not sleep on their back unless they are exhausted which causes other non trivial issues. If you actually look into the “back to sleep” study data, it is much, much weaker than proponents imply it is.
And yet, every nurse in the hospital kept telling us with religious fervor to not even think of letting the baby fall asleep on their stomach. I was so impressed that I was sure the evidence was overwhelming. But after a week with a hardly sleeping newborn (relatively speaking), I decided to look into it myself. You should to, rather than trust the “experts”. (Or a random internet post like mine, for that matter)
[1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199308053290601
Strongest predictor of SIDS was mom’s education level, followed by whether or not she was smoking; stomach/back was third. It’s the strongest one that can (easily) be changed, but something is very fishy about the data.
Proponents point out the inverse correlation between sleeping on back and SIDS, starting at the time the recommendations were made, as proof that this is a causal relationship. However, inclusion of time prior to recommendation shows that SIDS is inverse correlated to time; and sleeping on back is positively correlated with time only after recommendations were made.
Also, it’s possible data in the last 10 years paints a different picture - but at the time, the case for causal “back to sleep” was very flimsy.
Note the decline in SIDS rate, which starts in 1988 (see e.g. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/105/3/650 ), before the recommendation (1992) and "back to sleep" campaign (1994) and though it does track the decline of belly sleeping position, I found in the past graphs of belly sleeping from before 1986 in which it was essentially uncorrelated (or even inverse correlated, if you go back enough - but I don't trust that data).
But what's more alarming, is that although there is a continuing decline in SIDS, if you look at the combined SUID (Sudden Unexpected Infant Death) rate, it is essentially flat since 1996 (following a decline from 1990 as visible in the CDC graph, and which goes much farther IIRC). As a data scientist, this hints either (a) change of classification system that was not properly noted, or (b) that there's an underlying reason which causes infant death, which may manifest in different ways depending e.g. on whether the infant sleeps on their belly or their back.
As a new parent, this was terrifying (is anything really ever safe?) but also reassuring (the expert advice might technically be true, but seems to be useless).
I've found this over and over in many other cases - e.g., statins seem to reduce the change of a heart attack, but do nothing for (or even slightly increase) all cause mortality. Also financial advisers give advice which is technically correct but often useless.
Experts rarely qualify the limits of their advice, and that goes double when it is delivered 2nd hand (by nurses or even doctors who never bothered to look at the data but just parrot the official recommendations).
As a data scientist, you should really consider more than these two causes. For example, perhaps some other cause of infant deaths was rising during that same period. Or, perhaps there is a change in classification, AND there has been a saturation point reached in terms of how the existing public health initiatives can affect population behaviors. You really just cannot reason from coarse, population level death rates like this to a specific condition or cause.
Also: https://www.cdc.gov/sids/data.htm
The graph on that site very clearly shows that most of offsetting increase is caused by strangulation and suffocation, not an actual unexplained cause. It appears to be mostly a change in classification.
Finally, I really want to point out that we should not expect that a public information campaign would decrease SIDS rates to zero. After all, we can see in this thread that there are still plenty of parents who put their babies to sleep on their tummies. As far as most people know, the data could show that SIDS is 100% caused by prone sleeping and people would still doubt the evidence and put their child to sleep prone. SIDS rates would still not drop to zero, and that would not be evidence against the hypothetical cause.
And I started with saying that my conclusion was that it is likely safer for babies to sleep on their back from the SIDD/SUID perspective, but the evidence didn’t seem as conclusive or overwhelming as I was led to believe.
The hospital staff made it sound like letting my baby sleep on their tummy is signing their death warrant.
Do note, also, that prevalence of back sleeping went from less than 30% to more than 80% over the period graphed. One should not expect compliance from such a campaign in general, but (as far as medical compliance goes) a very good one was achieved. New parents are perhaps the most compliant group.
I am unlikely to dig as deep into the data again, but my well supported (I believe) conclusion at the time was that, all-cause-infant-mortality-wise, the recommendation may be somewhat justified, but the strength, might and terror in which it is given is definitely not.
Also, not to be all hippie but would we not have evolved to want to be held as infants? What species just leaves its young to sleep without physical contact?
Regardless of how true it is, the establishment cannot make a recommendation of the “Co sleeping is ok if you don’t drink, not overweight, and a light sleeper” kind, as many of the people in those categories are in denial of being in those categories. so it will be “co sleeping is always dangerous”.
But then, you nords leave your babies to sleep in the snow which is perfectly healthy but would get you a visit from child protection services in the US (did not hear of such a case, but have heard of cases for letting 9-year old kids walk from school or play basketball without parental supervision)
But like anything else, fuck, if it's working for you and the risk is very low, do what you need to do. I avoided it because I kept seeing hellish outcomes but if that's not what's happening for you, go for it.
Our oldest goes to sleep early and will insist on going to sleep when she feels tired and will wake up with me in the morning. Our youngest fights sleep until exhaustion and prefers to sleep in (until 9-10am if allowed). They have been raised exactly the same way.
We take way too much credit for our children's sleep habits.
The opposite: When my kids wake up in the middle of the night if they are alone they freak out. If there is another person there they feel comfort and go back to sleep without waking anyone else up. But YMMV.
Babies want that feeling of comfort, which is why you swaddle.
Additionally, as the world became safer and sanitized, we became more distanced from injury and it seems more traumatic. Parents are more afraid and focused on the downsides. As well as the fact that we have fewer kids than in the past. The potential consequences are greater.
It's also worth noting that the body and brain are anti-fragile. That is, they become stronger and more robust when challenged. Weaker in the absence of it. The end result of all this sanitization, safetyism and overprotection is a fragile human. One that is less able to cope with the challenges and messiness and nuance of the real world.
That negative feedback loop has led to quite a mess. The Coddling of the American Mind does an excellent deep dive on all this: https://www.amazon.com/Coddling-American-Mind-Intentions-Gen...
My sis used to climb out of her crib and flop down to the ground when she was little. Turns out she was just naturally athletic. Now she’s a personal trainer.
Put some pillows next to their bed and let them roll
So yes. The hyper focus on breast feeding is a problem. Baby friendly is often hostile to the mother. The medical community is to blame while in the hospital prioritizing pumping over breathing.
We had twins two years ago and some of the nurses were just very lacking in empathy. A few of the other ones were fantastic.
The second night we were in the hospital, I went home to stay with our older daughter. This left my wife on her own in the room, and the understanding was the nurses were going to give her time alone and handle a couple of the feedings for her. Well, shift change happened and the new nurse didn't give a care. Have to follow the script.
Sure they took the twins away after the feeding, but when they need to eat every two hours and it takes an hour to do, and then they have a half hour of other checks they need to get in, basically my wife didn't get any sleep all night.
She broke down crying in front of her nurse and the nurse basically said, "Suck it up." Without considering that my wife was dealing with a C-section, new twins, having nurses in and out of the room constantly, and me not being there to lend a hand.
I came in at like 5 am, and she was basically just sobbing in her bed. Thankfully one of the nice nurses came in and sat with her and calmed her down, and then said she would have a chat with the younger nurse and let her know that she needed to cut new moms some slack.
The other noteworthy thing that happened was my wife ordered supper, and while the nurses were in the room, she very obviously was having an allergic reaction to it. They just carried on like nothing was happening because "we're here for the babies". Finally I put my foot down and pointed out that my wife was obviously having an allergic reaction and her eyes were basically swollen shut. Then they finally were like "oh, I guess we should get her something for that."
Which is a long way of saying, I agree that nurses aren't nearly attentive enough. And can relate. But also, I'm not sure if its the focus on breast feeding that is the issue.
As it should be. You're the responsible adult in the room, and you will have to make sacrifices to take care of the helpless person you chose to bring into this world.
If you think "mom comes first", then get a fur baby instead.
I didn't say that there isn't. What I said, literally, is that the mother doesn't come first.
Your example sounds so far away from everything normal.
Has it ever crossed your mind, that medical people have a simliar distribution than every other field? Do you think every software developer is an expert?
Do you think everyone who is painting, paints equally well?
Do you think just because someone studied, that person is smart?
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jun/20/is-brea...
“This is the most important thing you can do for your child, and if it doesn’t work for you, that’s very unfortunate and, in the long run, will have serious consequences.” never crossed my plate. In germany mothers try, if it doesn't work, it doesn't. Thats it.
Our son was screaming because he was hungry. The nurse kept saying this was good, that it would encourage breast milk production. It took several tries to convince her that, while it might be good in the long run, we needed some food for this baby.
This was a consistent experience with all nurses we dealt with. Interestingly, breastfeeding specialists tended to be more understanding.
I see older cases about nestle misleading women in developing markets to suggest formula was better, which led to deaths. However this seems to be due to nutritional deficiencies which I, perhaps naively, would assume they have figured out by now.
They have, it's fine.
> But, having some formula is fine too.
It is harder to get the baby on the breastfeeding train, if you will, if you're switching between breast and bottle. You can pump but many women find that really distasteful and either way it takes up shitloads of time and their body might still not cooperate. A surprising percentage of babies (admittedly anecdotal, but I'm a parent and know lots of others and the sample size is actually pretty large as a result, though not randomized) have a hell of a time "latching" and actually getting enough milk out, and that's if the mother's body's producing enough, both of which are hard to measure so it's really easy to end up with a baby who's in the "failing to thrive" range which can lead to further hospitalization (and more judgement from nurses and such).
Frankly, as soon as shit gets a little sketchy I'd say just go straight to formula and bottle. It's not as good, sure, but the other way seems to be wildly harder and more difficult to track, unless you get very lucky and have one of those pairings where both mother and baby sync up perfectly and it just goes great, in which case it's merely very time-consuming. This is like 20% of babies at best, in my experience.
The rest get to deal with non-stop stink-eye and condescension from nurses and other care providers while they're stressed out, hurting, and anxious already, to probably still fail at the whole breast feeding thing even if they try hard and feel like shit for weeks and maybe don't get their baby enough food to grow properly while attempting it.
We decided not to even try with our twins, because it took an hour of pumping to produce half an ounce, every doctor we saw still pushed breastfeeding on us.
There's immense peer pressure surrounding it too. People love feeling superior to each other.
The sheer amount of guilt, shame, tut-tutting, and general bullshit around the birthing process is just astounding.
Breastfeeding is the poster child for this (great example here) but so does every other thing about parenting. Women have to make "no-win" choices around this, plus career, plus body changes, plus so many parenting choices.
Every single one of these things has 10 books that say X and 10 books that say Y.
Our pediatrician was supportive of nursing and suggested we stick with it but also said "the data that breastmilk is better in any significant way is just not there".
My wife breastfed for 6 months with both our kids then called it good, and I thought that was heroic.
Having to duck out to pump every couple hours is literally the last thing a new mom back at work (guilt! shame! second-guessing!) wants to be doing.
> People love feeling superior to each other.
I think it’s simply that people are poor at understanding that Option A being slightly better than Option B does not mean that Option B is bad. I think this deficiency in reasoning is what drives a lot of irrational behavior wrt to parenting (eg, making incredible sacrifices to afford a home in a neighborhood with “good schools”, going through hell so your newborn doesn’t sleep on its tummy, etc).
The material on screen is very often (from what I can observe just walking around town and seeing kids looking at them) grossly inappropriate for the child’s current level – either too simple and repetitive or too advanced and incomprehensible – but the sounds, colors, and especially movement are so exciting as pure distraction that kids will sit entranced, whether or not they are learning anything. The overstimulation from the screen is addictive enough for the kids that the kids will start to fuss and cry when the screen is removed, and when given the choice the screen will crowd out other toys and activities.
It is probably possible to make a screen a meaningful learning experience for young kids, but few parents (especially the ones who are using the screen to get a break from childcare) have the time to research and personally vet material to figure that out.
If a kid watches 30m of Mr. Rogers every day, they’re going to be fine. But the kids watching 2 hours of YouTube low-budget animated nursery rhymes on loop, or watching endless unboxing videos, or playing a too-easy iPad game, when they could otherwise be playing with and learning about the physical world, are really missing out.
This is not to say that kids shouldn’t regularly spend some time entertaining themselves while the parents do something else. But if they can learn to do so with a wimmelbook or some crayons or some blocks or a cardboard box.... they’re usually going to be learning more than if stuck in front of a TV.
We try doing that with 20 min of Paw Patrol and it's impossible. Give a finger, they take an arm. It's impossible to regulate the quantity.
No matter how many different options they have available to play or what promises you try to make before hand, it ALWAYS ends in a total meltdown. We get 20 min of peace, followed by 40 min of hysteria.
Before streaming media (YT, Netflix) we could watch something say Sunday 6PM or Saturday 7AM, and that was it. Now everything's on demand and they know perfectly well there's always more as long parents say ok.
The only solution is to stop. After a few days of no TV, they stop asking and happily draw, leaf through books, build stuff. But nothing says "peace" like a kid watching TV.
(The "there's always more [content out there]" component you mention - something I am very familiar with as someone with ADHD :X - folds nicely into the mesmerism/relive component described above.)
Where I learned about this recently: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/television/whats-paw-pa...
Linked from: https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/02/how-toys-... / https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22259025 (9 days ago)
Or something along the lines of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Secret_Life_of_Machines
Dunno.. I tend to watch video with my 3.5 year old rather than leaving him to watch video while I go do something else. We only watch videos occasionally (maybe 3 hours/week on average), and don’t really end up with meltdowns when we stop. But that method doesn’t help if the goal was to get some time alone as a parent.
the problem with screens is that they are strongly attractive. my kids don't even notice me when they watch a screen. from the available entertainment kids will pick what is most attractive, and the only way to reduce screen time is to not make it available, and instead provide other options.
I'm with you completely except for this one. Cigarette smoke feels like it sucks the air out of a nonsmoker's lungs from quite a wide radius. A nonsmoker can smell an outdoor cigarette from a block away, and it doesn't smell good even at that distance. Up close it makes people involuntarily gag. Not recognizing that seems pretty blind.
None of my parents, aunts/uncles or grandparents have been smoking since before I was born AFAIK and I still disagree with you.
I've always liked the distant smell of smoke for some reason. As everyone stops I'll probably miss it a bit but that is OK, I don't want them to destroy their lungs.
But your blanket statements feels weird to me, even as a non-smoker from a non-smoking home.
Unless you have an allergy or something, this is entirely in your head.
Some people also “involuntarily gag” when they think about interracial marriage or a person eating pickled cabbage. This kind of paranoid disgust is a conditioned response, not a reasoned risk assessment.
* * *
Note: I am not defending tobacco advertising, smoking in enclosed public spaces like restaurants, smoking in a car with kids inside it, smoking on primary school campuses, etc. (For that matter I’m not defending spending time near an indoor wood cooking fire, etc.)
It is clear that getting significant amounts of second-hand smoke is bad for anyone, and children are especially vulnerable because they can’t make choices about where to go.
But desire to avoid dangerous levels of smoke doesn’t excuse being a jerk to people who are engaged in a behavior (outdoor smoking) which they have a physical addiction to, and is predominantly harmful to themselves alone.
What a peculiar defense. The next time you use a bathroom that has gone far too long between cleanings, just remember that your response to the odor is all mere conditioning and that you just need to make a risk assessment. Inhale deeply, my friend. Take it all in. Let the fresh shitsmelling air cleanse your thoughts. It's not dangerous after all.
> Unless you have an allergy or something, this is entirely in your head.
The fraction of the population with asthma is easily high enough that there's plenty of people for whom it's not in the head.
Personally I just hold my breath and speed up until I've passed those people, but its most definitely unpleasant.
The narcissism of tobbaco users is emminently obvious to non-smokers but completely invisible and incomprehensible to them and their gratification. Just like how cigarette butts are the most common litter, and chewing tobbaco was curtailed due to concerns of tuberculosis from spitting it everywhere. It seems to be an effect of the drug more than anything sociological that all dissenting evidence is mentally erased.
This post is pure hysteria. You're rationalizing a conditioned, exaggerated reaction.
Is it that difficult to understand that most people don't want to inhale smoke and find it really distasteful?
Honestly, inhaling flatulence is probably less dangerous than inhaling second-hand smoke, and I don't think anyone is going to blame someone for intensely disliking inhaling that.
Yep, this is just as obvious as you want it to be.
And yet there's a massive government advertising campaign taking out billboards with the message "if you let your baby sleep with you, you are a bad mother and your baby will die". Check out the posters in the BART system sometime.
I find this incredibly disgusting. Nothing can justify this official message. But there it is out there anyway. The government, spending your money to hurt you.
There is just as much unsubstantiated fear generated by medical staff when it comes to kids as everywhere else in the community.
Seems that just having been a child qualifies somebody to comment on how you choose to raise your children.
Too much attention and you are a helicopter parent, not enough and you are neglectful. God forbid you let them play in the park without you being there.
Medicine is not unique in it's "accepted dogma" having a 1/2 life of course, all sciences do. But it's horribly short. From https://hms.harvard.edu/news/medicine-changing-world :
> Today, the half-life of medical knowledge is currently about 18-24 months, and it is projected that in about four years that half-life will be only 73 days.
That's from a mob trying to flog education so it's going to be an exaggeration, but it's still short no matter who measures it. By comparison Engineering knowledge 1/2 life is till measured in decades, although I expect they conveniently leave software engineering out of that.
Overall I agree with him, the doctors are far too eager to hard sell the latest advice in some paper. I guessing that's because selling advice is how they make their money. That behaviour has its downsides.
We are disgusted because the poison in cigarette smoke is extremely harmful to young lungs.
Smokers should have to go into designated areas they should have no right to pollute the air of those around them.
When someone is idling their car or truck do you go knock on their window and make a big scene about how they are poisoning your child?
That is a big claim. In view of the association with passive smoke and SIDS you will need some citations. It should not be hard to find them. Huge efforts have gone into researching causes of SIDS and there should be a good correlation between city vs countryside dwellers if your hypothesis is correct.
> When someone is idling their car or truck do you go knock on their window and make a big scene about how they are poisoning your child?
When my child was new born I would have moved away from them whilst saying loudly how disgusting they are - exactly the same as I did for smokers.
If someone is running their engine for no reason I would probably ask them to turn it off.
And I say this, FWIW, as a on and off smoker.
There is a fundamental difference between someone minding their own business on a public street, not harming anyone else, and someone else putting on a show to shame them based on gross mis-assessment of risk.
and really, this is the worst for kids
Go back 50 years and the things like nutrition, vaccination, etc had huge benefit in risk reduction.
Now that we’ve tackled those, we go after the next set. Now it’s breast feeding, screen time, etc. we put a similar focus on those but the returns are much smaller and sometimes questionable.
Is breast feeding better? Sure. Is your child going not going to reach their full potential if you use formula? No. Not worth getting stressed over.
Having spent a bunch of time around new parents, my observation is that most of them are way too hyped up about trivial threats. If a breast-feeding mother drinks a glass of wine once every few days the risk to the baby is trivial. If the baby sleeps in the same bed with the mother the risk to the baby is trivial, unless the mother is an a severe alcoholic or high on drugs. If the baby plays with many types of toys marked “ages 3+” while the parents are sitting watching, the risk to the baby is trivial. If the baby climbs up on a play structure marked “ages 4–7” while the parents are standing watching, the risk of permanent injury is trivial. If a 2-year-old walks around barefoot on the sidewalk, the risks are trivial. Etc.
The same kind of tendencies bring us the anti-vax movement, a rush to sanitize all surfaces in the home, excessive fears about kidnapping, theatrical demonstrations of disgust near smokers outside on the sidewalk, and so on.
New parents’ (and people’s in our society more generally) risk assessment and concept of hygiene is excessively black–and–white.
But this is not the fault of “modern medicine”.