> It's not some crazy bureaucratic maze or malevolent government
hmm
Policy designed for big firms, and in reaction to a few bad billionaire's or hundred millionaire's actions, which then destroys or squeezing out the small companies is one of the most common complaints against regulations like this. It's how you end up with only mega-corps and no competition or upward mobility for the middle class, and everyone wondering why there's a wealth gap when your only option is to work at bigco.
This stuff always starts out with good intentions like "punishing the rich". And then some nobody middle-class plumber in Scotland is the one being forced to sell his house while Maxwell's family trust is still worth millions.
Meanwhile law changes are never a 'simple fix', these sorts of things stick around for decades.
Edit: note Robert Maxwell was the billionaire(?) father of Ghislaine Maxwell who was Epstein's second-in-command in the sex ring
Or they make sure the regulation comes with built-in loopholes to exploit later.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=h...
Pensions are complicated by lump sum payouts, survivor benefits for spouses, and a bunch of other things. But you collect them for life. If you live a short time, the 401k might be a better outcome and the beneficiaries of your will can inherit the wealth (or your spouse, if you outlive them, vs reduce survivor benefits). If you live a long time, it's overwhelmingly likely you have not saved up enough for it, and short of letting the elderly eat cat food and die on the street, the costs of that outcome are socialized to the rest of us.
If you as an individual still want proper longevity insurance and the predictability of a defined-benefit-plan without this risk, just use the personal retirement savings to buy an annuity.
Also, how are you just ignoring have to rely on the honesty/fiscal stability of the company backing your hypothetical annuity in the space of two paragraphs?
Pensions are disappearing anyway so I feel like we're arguing the nutritional value of eating yangtze river dolphins, but that is because 401 plans are cheaper for employers and there is a lucrative fee structure in administering them, not because of an intrinsic flaw of pensions.
And PBGC is woefully underfunded. It’s already needing a bailout with just a few failing multi employer funds. It’s mostly for show I presume, since this isn’t even the first time it’s getting bailed out.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-25/house-pas...
There is still loads of risk to the employer as they are on the hook for any future shortfall. Shortfalls are common as there is huge correlation of risk, such as actuaries systematically under estimating gains in life expectancy. That's why most such schemes are in deficit.
One of the problems that caused the decline of DB pensions is the accounting industry decided on such a unlikely scenario that inflated the cost to the employer immensely.
One pension trustee commented that the scenario came true you'd be more concerned about your stockpile of tined goods and shotgun shells than a pension.
So who pays the accountants and who now has a nice excuse to shut down its scheme :-)
This article is about a British company. 401ks do not exist in the UK, and you get a lot of benefits and tax allowances from pensions that you get out of no other investment vehicle over here.
An interesting place to see this is in groups of US military members talking about the pension plan they just had the option to switch. The 401k version has a higher expected value than the pension version, yet many people who are themselves sticking things out to pension age prefer the pension age. Though it may be that people staying in the military trend risk averse.
I'm sure this is more nuanced, and risk aversion may depend on the type of risk (ex. financial risk vs physical risk). But it still sounds really strange to me to characterize individuals who volunteered to join an organization that may (and probably will) put then in very dangerous situations as "risk averse".
One can also plan to off themselves once they're unable to support themselves. I say plan, because I'm sure saying it is easy, but when it comes time to do it, it'll be much more difficult.
Also, what is this sacrifice you are talking about? Just another one "kids these days!"
I almost involuntarily typed "OK Boomer" in response to that.
*I'm Gen X, not a Millenial, but still
We can't simultaneously have ever-rising property values and affordable housing. Without affordable housing, many people are choosing to defer having kids (including, as you say, by pursuing more education to get higher-paying jobs), which reduces the worker/retiree ratio. That in turn makes it more expensive to be old, requiring more yet more savings.
To me a lot of this problem like a pathological response to the US's lack of good long-term pension coverage. Our every-man-for-himself, devil-take-the-hindmost approach causes a lot of scarcity thinking, which makes it hard to adopt sensible systemic solutions.
And it isn't a problem in all cities either. From what I hear costs are going down in many industrial cities as residents leave to seek more abundent jobs elsewhere.
As to the latter point, I'd be interested to see your data. The Case-Shiller metro indexes are all up over the last 5 years. [1] The metro area with the least inflation is New York, which doesn't match.
[1] https://us.spindices.com/additional-reports/all-returns/inde...
Take away the wealth transfer from cities to non urban areas and the only people living in rural areas will be the wealthiest and end of the world preppers.
This has absolutely nothing to do with partying. And if you're choosing to have kids for the purpose of having a support network when you're older, that's kind of a fucked up rationalization for it. At that point, society has failed you somewhere along the way. Even ancient societies had other methods of supporting the elderly in the community or through some form of welfare.
1. Save money.
2. Have 3-5 kids.
3. Kill yourself.
What I’m hearing is that you prefer 2 & 3?
1. Had the government or community take care of the elderly.
2. Criminalize poverty and force them to work or be imprisoned.
3. Let them die.
Even the Roman Empire had pension for people that served in the military. You can take your pick as to which system you'd prefer, but pensions have quite literally existed for thousands of years in some form.
It’s disingenuous to assert that the alternative to no pension is blood in the streets.
For 5: Even in those non-American societies they have recognized that leaning 100% on your family is generally a bad thing for working professionals. Or at least those companies are not willing to pay for their employees to take care of their elderly or disabled family members.
Why would you assume the rate of increase would keep increasing at the same rate?
So yeah, I agree it won't maintain a steady growth rate in the long term. I just don't think it'll stop before it causes some pretty big problems.
[EDIT] incidentally I'm not aware of high-profile projections of this stuff that have HC costs doing anything but continuing up way faster than inflation through at least 2030, provided the regulatory environment remains fairly similar. Even Warren's plan isn't projected to do much about that—need price controls in one form or another (like AFAIK every other OECD state uses) and a fix for our doctor supply problem, at least, probably, to do much about the rising costs.
If anything naive extrapolating shows falling costs as a percentage of GDP, and sustainable rising real costs.
The only way we get crazy numbers is extrapolating using the average from 2000-2020, but there's no reason to do that.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/184968/us-health-expendi...
If you are not going to make the effort, why should he take your criticism seriously?
I can however tell you that naive extrapolation is definitely the wrong way to do it.
Look at the 2nd derivative it's all over the place, so assuming that it will magically stay constant is wrong. The 2nd derivative of healthcare as a percentage of GDP is actually negative over the last few years.
No. This stuff starts out with good intentions like - "not leaving people who have retired, suddenly with no pension and having to live in poverty or rely on the state, rather than on the employer pension that they had promised would be there for them". It''s not there to punish the rich.
In this case, however, the formula being used to determine whether a pension scheme is in trouble seems the problem and it needs to be reviewed urgently.
Shared liability was a fairly simple way for small employers to keep their workers taken care of even if specific businesses failed. Its existence, along with the existence of unincorporated business owners, was missed or ignored when Section 75 was put into place. And the oversight wasn't corrected in 2005 when the rules were revised.
More damningly, the rules were revised seemingly without consideration for the difficulty of back-filling forty years of contributions to an entirely new threshold. Section 75 came about because of outright theft, and was revised in response to employers promising pensions out of line with what they were actually investing, but it wasn't targeted towards those cases. Instead, it created a liability for employers who'd been adequately funding pension schemes for decades, based on a calculation they'd never planned to support. And if the pension funds don't play along, they incur fines which could actually make healthy funds insolvent!
So a change aimed at addressing theft from pensions has created a situation where either employers are bankrupted for offering pensions to employees, or healthy, honest pension funds become unable to pay full benefits. I won't allege malice, but it's fairly spectacular incompetence to write a law supporting pensions which actually endangers people's pensions.
It is. Because as one 71-year old individual, former plumber, one day the regulators come knocking on your door telling you you're 1.2m short. In this kind of situation, an individual with no political or instiutional connections is (perceivedly) powerless and overwhelmed:
- I can't pay my responsibilities. - I can't change the law.
That's kafkaesque.
You can't really use that term to describe a situation that is well understood and is widely recognized to be a problem (not exactly a Kafka staple). It's simply awful law, which is bad enough.
You'd expect lawmakers to just fix it, although they tend to be preoccupied with other things in the UK right now.
- I don't know what my responsibilities are.
- I don't know to whom I am obligated.
- I cannot discover either.
- I am being punished for failure to deliver.
- Everything I can possibly do is not enough.
- Every 4 weeks, men in grey, face-concealing masks sedate me and graft what is possibly the upper half of a deformed baby onto my back. They cry constantly. I am not allowed to have mirrors. It has been 18 months, and I can barely lift the weight of them any more.
> The Department for Work and Pensions spokesman said the rules were in place to ensure schemes were adequately funded.
> He said: "We have a duty to protect members in their retirement, ensure schemes are properly funded and work with those employers who remain in a multi-employer scheme.
It seems like a giant clusterf*ck was introduced in 2005.
1. It wasn't properly communicated to anyone
2. There was a loophole that allowed a company to exit the pension for £1
3. The remaining businesses to cover the share of the deficit for everyone who had exited the scheme.
4. Most of these businesses didn't learn of the deficit until 2016, a decade after the the new math went into effect.
If the pension didn't do their duty to warn businesses of the deficit in 2005, it should be on their heads to fund the deficit, and they should not be allowed to pull from the pension fund, they have to pull from their own money.
Had these businesses known 10 years ago, they could have been paying all along an increased pension rate for their employees.
The irony is the Pension claimed they couldn't notice the employers at the time (which would have given the opportunity to buy out for 1 Euro) because they would have had to research the contact info for thousands of employers...yet the Pension seems to have no problem doing the research now and noticing these employers of their Million+ Euro liabilities.
So going after small businesses to enforce an onerous rule change is entirely hypocritical.
Notice was given - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
What would be a fair notice period or formula is probably the area of debate.
What's the pension's own money here? Everything they manage should nominally be part of the fund owed to their retirees. Where do you propose they actually draw money from?
And if they don't have enough cash to add back into the fund, they need to take on debt to fund THEIR shortfall.
The businesses were not told to increase their funding obligation from the start, so they should be off the hook.
In reality, the pension provider probably should declare bankrupcy. In theory, FSCS / PPF should kick in and most people should still get some kind of pension out of it - albeit a lot less than they expected.
However... I don't know much about the bankrupcy procedure. Would administrators have to be called in? Would they then chase these customers anyway?
I don't see any way out of this cock-up of a law without the law itself being changed. It's bonkers.
[UPDATE]
Actually, it turns out that's almost exactly what they've done
https://www.plumbingpensions.co.uk/plumbing-pensions-to-clos...
By closing their doors and handing the pension pots on to other providers, anybody still a member is completely safe.
The problem is, the guy in the original post stopped being a member, which is what has triggered the legal problems.
If you want to see the government position on this, it's here:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Sum...
... and they aren't willing to do anything about it, for fear that people might use any fallout mitigation to walk away from being responsible employers.
Otherwise, this absolutely makes no sense.
> The Plumbing and Mechanical Services (UK) Industry Pension Scheme was set up in 1975 with the aim of providing pension benefits for all employees of firms engaged in the Industry in the United Kingdom. The Scheme offered deferred benefits based on career average earnings.
The law in question came around for a good reason:
Section 75 came about as a result of a sweeping review of pension regulation in the wake of the Robert Maxwell scandal in the 1990s.
Following the media tycoon's death it emerged he had plundered millions from the Mirror Group pension scheme.
The Pensions Act 1995 introduced a series of reforms including a "minimum funding requirement" for pension funds. It also introduced something called "Section 75 pension debt", which meant if an employer "departed" a scheme, they could still be pursued for any shortfall.
It is just a poor match with this type of shared pension scheme (not British, so forgive problems matching this to other types of defined benefits plans I'm more familiar with). This seems to be a clear case to revise this Section 75 for these types of group plans/schemes.
There is no actual fiscal problem here, just a legal one. The biggest obstacle to amending the existing law, based on the article, is an inability to enact legislation because of distraction by Brexit.