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Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by matthewdgreen on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:07AM (#20083188)
It's amazing watching the Chinese Communist Party systematically target, succeed in, and gain dominance in these industries -- industries that any idiot can see are going to be critical to the global economy within a couple of decades max. Meanwhile trillions of investment dollars available in the US are busy chasing Juiceros.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by bluGill on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:16AM (#20083276)
That is also the problem with Command economies: they do really well with some things the central planners see as useful, but miss tons of little things that are important but the central planners don't have time to think about. Juiceros is in fact an upside of not having a central plan: we are willing to try things of questionable benefit to see if they are really good even though they look stupid.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by sfifs on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:37AM (#20083519)
What makes you think China is a "Command" economy? USSR was a command economy. In China the Government funnels money into areas that are its priority but much of the economy runs on private innovation & fairly intense competition, especially the tech and software economy.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by mensetmanusman on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:52AM (#20083695)
It has a large % that is command based. Evidence is in scrambling municipalities when their investments are dictated and end up going bad anyway. (Or they prop up performance numbers to not catch anyones attention, this is leading to massive shadow-banking activity).
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by newnewpdro on Monday June 03, 2019 @01:36PM (#20085806)
Maybe the article being discussed?

"The towns are typical of China’s command-led approach to its economy."

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by chvid on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:23AM (#20083364)
If you go back in the history of major car companies you will see plenty of government intervention. For China this is a part of a broader strategy to become less dependent on (imported) fossil fuels.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by astazangasta on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:35AM (#20083498)
The idea of a clean separation between a "command economy" and whatever we have is a myth. The US obviously had a national strategy to encourage the growth of its auto industry, like building a national highway system. Similarly for semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace, oil and gas, etc. If you are spending $1.5 trillion a year in a $16 trillion economy you have a lot to say about its structure.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by chvid on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:26AM (#20083388)
PS: If you wander around a Chinese city you will see plenty of products sold which seem more silly than a Juicero.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by magduf on Monday June 03, 2019 @02:54PM (#20086812)
They probably didn't involve a huge amount of VC investment though.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by AstralStorm on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:15PM (#20088075)
Indeed. These products need no R&D really and I consider VC funding them a variant scam, except with private funds.

However, try to VC say a factory manufacturing metal parts or plastics, nobody will say yes...

Heck, try making actual cars or even golf carts on VC money. VC funders are either interested in something completely not speculative and small (eg. EU VC scene) or total moonshots in badly understood markets where no actual R&D is required.

If the thing is very speculative research, most VC aren't interested.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by rb808 on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:20AM (#20083322)
Agreed - also the central planners products aren't that great, I'd dispute that China dominates anything except manufacturing. Juiceros are made in China and there are very few Chinese cars exported.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by bluGill on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:28AM (#20083409)
Taiwan and Japan held the standard for the place to manufacture cheap junk 30 years ago. They dominated that market, but nobody expected good engineering. However as their country got richer they developed a reputation for better by doing.

It takes time to develop engineering expertise, but China has some great engineers who are able to teach the younger generation thus building up a system of being great. I don't know if China is leveraging this internally, but that is lack of personal knowledge. I believe they are going to transform to be another place to get quality products in 20 years.

My guess is India will mostly skip the cheap junk phase of manufacturing: we have been developing their engineering expertise more then their manufacturing.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by seanmcdirmid on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:08PM (#20084732)
There are two Indias: a middle class educated one that is already heavily into services, and a poorer less educated India that would have benefited more from lower skilled but still better paying than farm work manufacturing jobs. Right now, India is developing the former but not the latter, which is going to be huge problem down the line.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by oblio on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:38AM (#20084333)
It's hard to predict anything, but India, in my eyes, seems headed to a mix of manufacturing (smaller percentage) and services (much larger percentage).

I see India leveraging its democracy and relative openness plus its large English speaking population to achieve this.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by sametmax on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:42AM (#20083567)
It helps to be a dictatorship that can force anybody to do what they want, and send to camp people that don't. It also helps to have millions of cheap workers, and a gigantic, rich, soil. And it's easier if you not care about destroying everything in your way.

Still.

It's impressive for exactly the same reasons. It's hard to foster an intellectual elite in a dictatorship, to maintain motivation and cooperation across a gigantic country and 1.7B of people.

Beside, we did the same: polluting, forcing population to work, etc, only 100 years before, but we attacked other countries while doing so. Which China haven't. And about this pollution thing, they seem to correct trajectory faster than we did, given their timeframe and inertia.

It's amazing to watch.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by Bakary on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:49AM (#20084487)
>It's impressive for exactly the same reasons. It's hard to foster an intellectual elite in a dictatorship, to maintain motivation and cooperation across a gigantic country and 1.7B of people.

On the contrary you could argue that the brutal competition in the country encourages people to be razor sharp in some fields.

A more controversial and touchy point is that they have a strong sense of national and ethnic unity, which many democracies lack. This has many disadvantages of course,[0] but can be extremely helpful for maintaining cooperation and motivation at a large scale whereas the West arguably has trouble dealing with ennui and lack of purpose. To some extent the form of functional ethno-nationalism China has is hard to reproduce elsewhere, and is the result of very specific historical and geographical factors. Japan and Turkey for instance have similar traits but nowhere near the same results. So China is tautologically highly suited to doing what it is currently doing.

[0] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/11/19/the-upper-han

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by someguydave on Tuesday June 04, 2019 @12:20AM (#20091854)
In one sense, China is only ~70 years old, and it was born in a horrific era that lead to yet more horrors. When a few generations live and die without hunger or war, it will be interesting to see if they are so willing to believe whatever the Chinese government wants them to believe.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by sametmax on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:46PM (#20085258)
I wonder what built this, becauqe clearly it's not new. China use to do it 2000 years ago too.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by Bakary on Monday June 03, 2019 @03:57PM (#20087791)
You could spend your entire career on this topic and still never find the answer, but this article gives a nice summary of some of the factors.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/evolution-chinese-nat...

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by matthewdgreen on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:05PM (#20087913)
I'm not convinced you have to be a brutal dictatorship in order to support significant government investment in key industries. You just need a lot of money and a political willingness to spend it.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by AstralStorm on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:22PM (#20088169)
Not even a lot, just a big enough percentage to sway things.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by _iyig on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:06AM (#20083884)
>It's hard to foster an intellectual elite in a dictatorship

Have we forgotten about Nazi technical excellence, Werner von Braun, and the Soviet space program?

It’s easy to pour money into STEM fields. If you only crack down on ethnic minorities and outspoken dissenters, and if you censor uncomfortable news about these crackdowns, the majority of your engineers and scientists won’t care enough to DO anything. This approach worked for the Nazis and, to a lesser degree, the Soviets. It is working very well in China.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by oblio on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:35AM (#20084289)
> Have we forgotten about Nazi technical excellence, Werner von Braun, and the Soviet space program?

One could argue that both the Nazi and the Soviet programs had roots in pre-existing system setup up before the totally authoritarian ones took over. For Germany, Imperial Germany + the Weimar Republic (both flawed democracies, but still, democracies) and for the USSR, Imperial Russia, which ok, might have not have been democratic in any modern sense, but was pretty liberal from a scientific and artistic point of view. Way more so than the USSR.

If anything, both the Nazis and Soviets drained their scientific communities so much that by the end of the regimes they almost destroyed them.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by icebraining on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:54AM (#20084565)
I don't see the drainage; 70 years after the October revolution, the USSR was still being first on important space exploration milestones, including the first permanently manned space station, in 1986.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_space_program#Notable_f...

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by sametmax on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:45PM (#20085241)
It's only a tiny, tiny part of science in a country. Ussr had nowhere close to the growth china as, even when recalibrating to the population size. The ussr economy was dying, with no innovation and no production outside of the war effort.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by AstralStorm on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:32PM (#20088332)
Economy was dying but not for lack of innovation.

Mostly because certain very poor agricultural decisions caused repeated famines and further social unrest. Other than that it is telling that USSR was essentially a close second to USA for most of its existence, sometimes even at the forefront.

The problem was management in the lower base levels like building industry, especially agriculture and some low level factory work, like parts or pieces. R&D and military industry was excellent.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by cat199 on Monday June 03, 2019 @01:43PM (#20085883)
Not a field expert, but I'm fairly sure that China's vast economic growth is due largely to trade normalization with democratic countries in the last 20 years or so that happened after the fall of the USSR.

Both were subject to the 'dont trade with communists' policy during the time they both existed..

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by oblio on Monday June 03, 2019 @02:05PM (#20086188)
China actually turned the ship around thanks to Deng Xiaoping. It wasn't just trade normalization, it was also their adoption of many free market practices that allowed them to be competitive. Compare and contrast with Russia.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by AstralStorm on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:38PM (#20088411)
Funny enough Russia is even more capitalist than China. However, its capitalism is focused on resources and agriculture (esp. fishing) sector and not manufacturing (except weapons where they excel) - and keeps quite a bit of EU in stranglehold.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by cat199 on Wednesday June 05, 2019 @10:38AM (#20104829)
Hmm. interesting.

But wasn't this the same time as glasnost/perestroika?

And again, this doesn't happen in a vacuum..

Was non-communist policy (e.g the west) more favorable to china than russia?

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by oblio on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:16PM (#20084852)
That came later.

The USSR drained everything else to keep the space program and the military at a high level until it fell.

Once it fell, I'm pretty sure most of those researchers ran wherever they could, as fast as they could.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by AstralStorm on Monday June 03, 2019 @05:15PM (#20088879)
Not really. They got priority but not exactly at the expense of other fields. There was a lot of agricultural and biological sciences done, even electronics and civilian computer science too. And obviously mathematics. You probably haven't heard enough of it because Russian science was not named after Russian scientists too often in English. Heck, even some cars were quite cutting edge for the day until the catastrophes hit real hard. Though the infrastructure was really bad.

Nothing really was drained for advanced projects, not even coffers. What happened was tragic mismanagement of agriculture, part manufacturing and building industry. This resulted in serious shortages all around and many deaths to famine.

Only at the end did innovation slow down, due to above factors and social unrest.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by _iyig on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:19PM (#20084902)
Yes, but that’s entirely my point. So long as they and their families were taken care of, most stuck around (though certainly some of that was due to fear).
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by thebooktocome on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:30PM (#20085055)
Try any scientific field other than aerospace, physics, or mathematics.

Soviet biology was utterly destroyed by an ideological commitment to Lysenkoism.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by magduf on Monday June 03, 2019 @02:59PM (#20086887)
I think the drainage was a lot worse on the Nazi side. The Nazis took their country's resources and started a big war, invading Poland and much of Europe, and then (what ultimately destroyed them) Russia.

The USSR never committed so many resources to war; they engaged in the "cold war", but that was really about it. Germany was fighting an active war on two fronts and got crushed in the middle. The Soviets just built a bunch of bombs and walls (after the action in WWII).

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by knolax on Monday June 03, 2019 @01:28PM (#20085719)
> USSR, Imperial Russia, which ok, might have not have been democratic in any modern sense

That's a massive understatement. The Russian Empire abolished serfdom in 1861[0]. There's no way that the Soviet space program was an extension of institutions from a society that was literally feudal a generation before the revolution.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emancipation_reform_of_1861

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by cat199 on Monday June 03, 2019 @01:40PM (#20085847)
While i agree that much of the technological progress happened under soviet times, USA also abolished slavery in the 1860s, so this is not a very good data point for comparison.. one could make the argument that most 'western' (in a loose sense) technological progress beyond initial industrialization happened from WW1+ ... which would imply different things for different places
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by oblio on Monday June 03, 2019 @02:07PM (#20086219)
Russia was abolishing serfdom and discovering the periodic table at about the same time. History isn't fully linear.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by sametmax on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:35PM (#20085114)
And yet einstein went to the US and give them the bomb.

During the cold war, little progress has been made engeenering that were not benefiting the wzr effort. Source: my last gf was born on the other side of the wall.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by Cthulhu_ on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:57AM (#20083765)
> It helps to be a dictatorship that can force anybody to do what they want, and send to camp people that don't. It also helps to have millions of cheap workers, and a gigantic, rich, soil. And it's easier if you not care about destroying everything in your way.

Is this about China or the US? I mean it's got prison / slave labor, cheap workers (minimum wage, what's that?), huge lands, etc. Don't think the US moved away from those practices a hundred years ago, they're still doing it, they're just calling it differently and it's coming from financial interests now instead of political ones (e.g. private prisons that make sure to keep their cells (over) full and their cheap labor supply up)

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by dang on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:46AM (#20084456)
Please don't take HN threads even further into ideological and nationalistic flamewar. These discussions are all the same, which makes them predictable, which makes them boring apart from the intense indignation they provoke. That is not what HN is for.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[dead]
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by otaviokz on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:23AM (#20084120)
It has the largest inmate population in the world, in total number, not %.

Can you imagine if China locked up the same % of it's population?

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by ionised on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:24AM (#20084129)
You might be surprised to learn about some of the shit the US does to its own citizens.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by wavefunction on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:24AM (#20084133)
Some contend that family separations are still occurring: https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-migrant-fam...
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by Cthulhu_ on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:54AM (#20083728)
Oh but the US has been doing the same, just in the military branch instead of technology. They also bailed out the car industry after the 2008 crisis.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by dmix on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:22AM (#20083352)
The US does all the innovation and R&D then China's manufacturing juggernauts do the building.

This is an old pattern that's just getting more efficient and China's able to sell to it's own markets. Freeing up more human and financial capital for China to do their own R&D/entrepreneurship.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by jbay808 on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:09AM (#20083928)
How do people expect to maintain an advantage in design and engineering when they have outsourced production? Where are the younger generations going to learn the things they don't teach you in university? Isn't it a huge advantage for a designer when you are the one getting your prototypes from the factory down the street?
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by dmix on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:43AM (#20084409)
The issue is more about why not than why they should.

The biggest reasons are the loss of domestic experience curves [1] to other countries when we shifted to a service based economy. The second is the hyper politicized process of even creating a factory, let alone operating one, even when you have the direct backing of the executive branch [2].

The other one (allegedly) is the idea that the local labor workforce won't want to do any of the hard/dirty jobs or can't do them cost effectively, often because 1 and 2 but other reasons. So there are higher initial costs for automation.

But otherwise there are plenty of good reasons to operate production domestically once the technical and political environment supports such a thing. Which might happen in the future, although few mainstream parties seem to actually want that to happen without their idealized or prior worldview being appeased.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-06/inside-wi...

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by bluGill on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:43PM (#20085216)
What makes you think manufacturing isn't done in the US? China has a lot of cheap labor so things that are best done by cheap labor move there. (less so now as China is moving up). There is a lot of manufacturing that remains in the US, anything that benefits from automation and cheap reliable energy is best done in the US where energy is cheap and reliable and there are automation engineers.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by jbay808 on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:06PM (#20091412)
There are also automation engineers in China, and they have the significant advantage of being able to easily observe the manual processes that they need to automate!
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by StreamBright on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:45AM (#20083605)
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by dmix on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:54AM (#20083725)
Yep my comment mentions that.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by raxxorrax on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:44AM (#20083599)
Just bad for the whole city if the strategy fails. And there is a single point of failure.

What if someone acknowledges that battery powered cars cannot reach the utility of fossil cars or trucks even? What if somebody invents a safe hydrogen cell?

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by jbay808 on Monday June 03, 2019 @06:44PM (#20089748)
Is there something wrong with betting based on a calculated risk?

VCs do it all the time, why can't a government do it?

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by raxxorrax on Tuesday June 04, 2019 @07:50AM (#20094051)
VCs are able to swallow the result of a failure. The government probably can too, but not the city itself.

Not saying this strategy is bad, but it will inevitably end up like deserted coal cities if the industry is too mono-cultural.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by rasz on Tuesday June 04, 2019 @01:30AM (#20092186)
"National IC Investment Fund (called the "Big Fund") will mainly focus on three key sectors in the coming years, including memory, SiC/GaN compound semiconductor, and IC design with its application in IoT, 5G, AI, smart vehicles, etc."

~$75 billion by 2017

https://press.trendforce.com/node/view/3025.html

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by natechols on Monday June 03, 2019 @01:45PM (#20085911)
Juicero went out of business quickly. The same tends not to happen to "strategic" state-owned enterprises that don't pull their weight.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by ssnistfajen on Monday June 03, 2019 @02:40PM (#20086636)
Planned economy works until they don't. For one it can only react to trends after they emerge by playing catch-up, instead of birthing run-away successes out of nowhere. I am against a completely unregulated free market in principle but that doesn't mean having to follow state-directed planning to the exact step.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by matthewdgreen on Monday June 03, 2019 @04:07PM (#20087947)
It's hard to look at the US's current minimal investment in renewable technologies as a rational response to current trends. It's obvious to anyone who pays attention to the science that electric transportation and renewables is going to be a huge business in the future. If our markets don't plan on a large enough time horizon, that's a huge disadvantage for our system.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by StreamBright on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:43AM (#20083581)
Europe is not much better. Key industries (for example Volvo) are sold to Chinese and lots of fake Chinese products are flooding the European markets (for example jams, honey). It would be trivial to fix these if the EU cared. They are busy chasing brexit and other very important things.
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by raxxorrax on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:47AM (#20083646)
internet surveillance is one of their favorite things. After the critical success of article 13, they now plan to give foreign government agencies access to domestic corporate data.

At this rate, we will arrive at a point were Brexiteers were correct on most important developments.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by pjc50 on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:20AM (#20084080)
> now plan to give foreign government agencies access to domestic corporate data.

What does this refer to? The EU has generally been strong on privacy protection.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by raxxorrax on Monday June 03, 2019 @12:33PM (#20085082)
https://www.ft.com/content/63a6105a-fa24-11e8-af46-2022a0b02...

This potentially could reduce privacy protection to the lowest standards of any member state.

Terrorism and cyber crime are negligible threats to the EU. It has more of an existential crisis. These kind of laws that have invigorated us the last decades are going to be extended further. Because we seem to be governed by pathologically fearful, demented old...

Additionally, the US will be involved for similar sharing of data in the future.

Sorry for the rant, but it is what it is. Without any accountability whatsoever.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by nathan_long on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:52AM (#20083702)
A dictatorship is just more extreme than a democracy because the whole society moves in sync by necessity - they do or die. Whether it's a smart industrial move or a dumb one, a benevolent program or a genocidal one, if the leaders call for it, it gets done.

No single decision should be taken as proof that dictatorship is good.

Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by ptah on Monday June 03, 2019 @10:19AM (#20083312)
five year plan works better than a quarterly plan for some cases
Re:China Has Whole Towns Focused on Making Electric Cars by adventured on Monday June 03, 2019 @11:34AM (#20084273)
> Meanwhile trillions of investment dollars available in the US are busy chasing Juiceros.

Amusing attempt. For one example, Silicon Valley is embarrassing most of the rest of the world when it comes to artificial intelligence and autonomous tech. China is at least five years behind on autonomous, by their own admission - which is why all of their tech giants had to set up shop in SV to work on autonomous.

"The talent needed to give Chinese startups an edge in autonomous vehicles can’t be found in Beijing or Shanghai."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/to-find-c...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tencent-holdings-autonomo...