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Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by karpathy on Saturday September 02, 2017 @05:46PM (#15158386)
I gave this talk a while ago to a small group of attendees. It was not recorded (I saw some ask below). It's based on a document I wrote a while ago called "You suck at writing AI" (never published). The basic argument was that people are comically inadequate at writing complex code. You can't write the code to detect a cat in an image and the correct thing to do is to give up, write down an objective that measures the desiderata and pay with compute to search a function space for solutions. In the same vain, the idea of writing an AGI and all of its cognitive machinery is preposterous and the correct thing to do is to give up, think about the objective and search the program space for solutions. Unfortunately, the mindset of decomposition by function (see Brooks ref), which has worked so well for us in so many areas of scientific inquiry, is just about the most misleading mindset when it comes to AGI.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by CuriouslyC on Saturday September 02, 2017 @06:48PM (#15158640)
Plot twist: figuring out that objective function may prove as intractable as the original problem! We'll need an objective function writing objective function, and then it's turtles all the way down.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mannigfaltig on Saturday September 02, 2017 @09:29PM (#15159196)
The main objective function in nature is very simple though: maximize the number of copies of your genes. Such an objective enforced in a resource-constrained multi-agent world (as suggested in the slides) could really lead to quite complex sub-objectives which may as well lead to general intelligence. For example, if each agent can process information and perform work, it follows that individuals that have better cooperative abilities also have a larger reproductive success. Cooperation is, however, extremely complex: It requires communication, identification of other individuals, establishment of trust, early detection of betrayal etc. The necessity for modeling the actions of other agents alone provides plenty of correction signals toward general intelligence because modelling other agents is such a difficult task.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by CuriouslyC on Saturday September 02, 2017 @09:35PM (#15159219)
I don't know that "maximize descendants of self" is necessarily right though. It seems like a better statement might be "maximize the development of complexity in the universe". Just as an example, lots of people choose to forgo having children to focus on contributing to the universe in other ways (myself included). This isn't just a self-centered drive for fame/wealth/etc either, as many people pursue their quests in poverty/obscurity, and some even choose anonymity.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mirimir on Saturday September 02, 2017 @11:30PM (#15159534)
Well, for biological organisms, it's all about reproductive success. I mean, what exits today reflects what managed to reproduce, and how well. Overall, that has created lots of complexity. But that's just because there are so many niches and ways to be successful in them.

What you say about people reflects cooperative behavior that drives reproductive success for shared gene complexes.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by TheOtherHobbes on Sunday September 03, 2017 @07:17AM (#15160852)
It took nature four billion years to invent humans, who are actually - if we're honest - pretty terrible as an example of workable AGI.

In fact what nature invented was a persistent colony organism with external memory.

Wild solo humans are only a little smarter than wolves individually, but being able to share and externalise invention and learning created a massive advantage.

Humans are successful because although only a tiny minority of individuals are any good at invention, the fact that information persists and is shared means the entire population benefits.

The problem for AI is modelling the learning and invention process. Classifiers and recognisers are getting better, but they're not really learning in the human sense, which is a combination of abstraction, mimicry, and occasional invention.

IMO there's no chance of AGI developing until there's a persistent, transferable, abstracted model generated as an output from classifier systems and other learning machines which is a symbolic - not just a statistical - summary of the learning.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:11AM (#15172461)
Transfer learning is a thing (one NN learns from another or multiple NNs), also, large ontologies representing billions of facts.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by red75prime on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:30AM (#15165922)
> until there's a persistent, transferable, abstracted model [...]

It can be compressed to "until AIs can talk".

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mirimir on Monday September 04, 2017 @03:30AM (#15166400)
... to other AIs.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by red75prime on Monday September 04, 2017 @04:09AM (#15166548)
or "... to itself"
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:08AM (#15172451)
> for biological organisms, it's all about reproductive success

Another way of putting it - the source of meaning is life, or death (prolonging life, avoiding death as much as possible). Reproduction is just the start of life. From this game of life and death come reward signals that teach us how to act in the world (our values).

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mannykannot on Sunday September 03, 2017 @01:02PM (#15162500)
There is no guarantee that pursuing complexity as a goal in itself will lead to intelligence. The one thing going for mannigfaltig's proposal is that it has been known to work, though very inefficiently, and we don't have enough examples to estimate the yield. One might suggest that having the right definition of complexity would produce the desired result, but coming up with that definition takes us right back to CuriouslyC's point.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:17AM (#15172485)
I give you a simple definition: maximize diversity (differentiation) and integration. They are opposites, to a degree - so there is a tradeoff and maximum at the middle in both diversity and integration. This idea comes from the Integrated Information Theory of Consciousness (Giulio Tononi, Christoph Koch).

In a neural net we do just that - maximize diversity by splitting the signal over many neurons, each with different weights, computing different things. Integration is maximized by the mixing together of signals from other neurons and training them together with a common loss function.

Even the internet as a medium requires diversity and integration to be successful. For example, net neutrality is related to diversity. Integration is related to national firewalls, copyright barriers, filter bubbling effect (where one sees only content from parts of the internet they agree with), walled gardens (like the app stores), and other things that cut the connection between people.

You can apply diversity and integration to other fields as well, for example, in politics/governance. We can compare a federal system (more diversity) with a centrally planned system (less diversity) and see the effects. With integration - we can compare free trade with regulated trade. The same principles apply to free speech - where diversity and integration are basically promised by the constitution.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mannykannot on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @08:06AM (#15174346)
Well, maybe, but it looks very speculative to me. I think anything deserving the label 'definition' would have to be much more definite than that.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by simonh on Sunday September 03, 2017 @04:15PM (#15163611)
There's no guarantee this will favour the development of intelligence though. To take examples from nature, flighted birds are so optimised for weight that they would never develop large, heavy enough craniums to support sentient brains. Many selective criteria may turn out to favour optimisation patterns that could actualy exclude general intelligence, or at least might effectively close off evolutionary paths that could lead to it.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by kpil on Monday September 04, 2017 @02:02AM (#15166039)
Except that ravens and other corvids seems to be self aware and are highly intelligent, it's correct that evolving things does not guarantee high intelligence.

Insects and especially social insects like ants are good examples of very successful survivors with very little general intelligence.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by BooglyWoo on Monday September 04, 2017 @08:09AM (#15167633)
As another user TheOtherHobbes noted, humans share this characteristic with insects to some extent:

> Wild solo humans are only a little smarter than wolves individually, but being able to share and externalise invention and learning created a massive advantage.

This seems to resonate with a strain of Philosophy of Mind https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/content-externalism/ which deals with our mental content being distributed not only around the brain and body, but on paper, computers and relations with other people.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mannigfaltig on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:32PM (#15169629)
On the other hand, one can possibly steer the evolution towards a direction that enables general intelligence to evolve. In nature there are many local minima due to biological constraints (body weight, cranium size, birth channel size, predators, payoff between energy investment into large neural networks vs large muscles, ecological niches). In a simulation one can probably avoid many of these local minima by changing the rules that govern the simulation.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mirimir on Saturday September 02, 2017 @11:32PM (#15159540)
I don't think that we'd want that sort of AI, as a competitor. But if we could become one, that would be cool.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by bad_alloc on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:27PM (#15158807)
Unless it were possible for each objective function to converge to a next one that slightly extends the current one. However, what would the starting point be? Is this mathematically definable? What does the (im)possibility to define such a function tell us about AI?
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:26AM (#15172523)
> However, what would the starting point be?

The starting place is simulation. We use games (and other kinds of sims) to learn to act intelligently in a virtual environment. In such a place we can define many tasks and a learning curriculum.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by p1esk on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:40PM (#15158861)
Make them hierarchical. Starting point is to survive.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by goatlover on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:49PM (#15158889)
Bacteria are good at surviving.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by p1esk on Saturday September 02, 2017 @08:02PM (#15158940)
Can you think of a better starting point?
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by d_burfoot on Sunday September 03, 2017 @02:53AM (#15160045)
There are at least two huge advantages of the decomposition by function approach compared to the black box solution space search approach:

- The former can be debugged. If your image analysis system embarrassingly tags black people as gorillas, you can go in and find the bug and fix it. That's not so easy if you're using a black box model.

- The black box approach is tremendously enervating. You code up a neural network architecture, launch a bunch of cloud GPU instances, and start training. If the results are bad... you try a new architecture. In the function decomposition world, you can actually use your knowledge and understanding of the system as an engineer to figure out what went wrong and why.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by idlewords on Saturday September 02, 2017 @08:21PM (#15158999)
Would you be willing to write this talk out in longer form? I realize it's a lot of work, but the slides are fantastic and even an intermediate textual version that just fills in some of the explanatory gaps would be fascinating.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by olegkikin on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:34PM (#15158833)
Fortunately you don't have to write an AGI yourself. We have a very powerful tool called evolution that can do all the heavy lifting for us, we just have to set up the environment and the goals. I'm pretty sure we could create an AGI, given enough computational power and time, we're basically hardware-limited.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by goatlover on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:41PM (#15158864)
Nature had a planet and several billion years. Of course the goal wasn't AGI, it was survival, and horseshoe crabs have done a pretty good job of that. So have beatles, with their large number of species. How would you select for only AGI? It would be like selecting for only the greatest eyes (Mantis shrimp), but doing it over the entire tree of life. You still need a way to narrow down to the best eyes.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by lgas on Sunday September 03, 2017 @01:48AM (#15159895)
Survival is not a goal, it's just the score keeping system.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by akvadrako on Sunday September 03, 2017 @06:04AM (#15160612)
What, oh wise one, is the goal?
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by LukaEn on Sunday September 03, 2017 @01:39PM (#15162699)
Nothing. Evoultion came about randomly, not by intent, so it has no goal.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:29AM (#15172531)
> Nothing. Evolution came about randomly, not by intent, so it has no goal.

Evolution created a goal from nothing, which is self-replication. It works on many levels - self replicating DNA, self replicating cells, self replicating ideas (memes), self replicating ecosystem, even the economy has become a self replicator.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by goatlover on Sunday September 03, 2017 @06:05PM (#15164202)
But if the goal is to use evolution as model for generating AGI, then the problem is narrowing down all the surviving species to the ones that result in AGI, as opposed to a thousand other successful traits.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by akvadrako on Sunday September 03, 2017 @06:14PM (#15164251)
That's pretty meaningless - in that case the word goal doesn't have a meaning because everything is just as random as evolution, which isn't very random but whatever.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:31AM (#15172544)
Evolution is not random. It requires self replication in order to transmit and evolve genes. Everything else is much more random.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by posterboy on Monday September 04, 2017 @01:35AM (#15165941)
Reduction of entropy. Which seems quite the opposite of growth. However effectively, say energy per volume, it allows for growth.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by lgas on Sunday September 03, 2017 @01:52PM (#15162768)
^
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by kobeya on Sunday September 03, 2017 @01:53AM (#15159905)
I think that's what the person you are replying to is arguing for...
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by p1esk on Saturday September 02, 2017 @06:18PM (#15158518)
It's unfortunate that AI researchers pay so little attention to the brain (a single slide in your talk). We need more ML people evaluating ideas from neuroscience or from such initiatives as Numenta or Spaun.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:34AM (#15172558)
Demis Hassabis (Deep Mind) published recently a manifesto about the importance of neuroscience for AI.

Neuroscience-Inspired Artificial Intelligence http://www.cell.com/neuron/abstract/S0896-6273(17)30509-3

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by mycat on Saturday September 02, 2017 @07:21PM (#15158774)
Remeber Koniku? (http://koniku.io/) Biology and Biotech are different beasts.

Saw their Ted talk, looks promising, but seems they delayed a lot.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by paulsutter on Saturday September 02, 2017 @06:33PM (#15158583)
Practical example, neural architecture search to discover convnets that require less computation, https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07012 "Learning Transferable Architectures for Scalable Image Recognition"
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by marmaduke on Sunday September 03, 2017 @06:30AM (#15160711)
Anyway you might publish the original writing? I have been skeptical of the very notion of AGI ever since hearing it described as a sort of computational or scientific panacea; it would be nice to have more discussion on the topic.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by eb3c90 on Saturday September 02, 2017 @06:51PM (#15158649)
I'd be interested in what you think of my approach elsewhere in the replies.

In some ways it is a search through program space. But then I think we as intelligences do a guided search through program space as we develop. It seems important to use what information you can to guide you e.g. culture and copying other people who have already been navigating the space of programs to be.

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by LukeB42 on Sunday September 03, 2017 @05:22AM (#15160473)
The objective function for humans seems to be "Perfect the Human Soul" which can have conflicting optima in different contexts. Obviously no other mammal optimizes for it, either. See any slice of human culture or human activity ever for reference. Thanks for putting this slideshow together.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by malmsteen on Sunday September 03, 2017 @05:41AM (#15160529)
Nah it's just "survive and replicate". like every other species. Except that it's harder for us than other species, in particular, because a small human child is super fragile (more than like a giraffe baby) so you need a lot of care, and a lot of intelligence to do that care.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by LukeB42 on Sunday September 03, 2017 @03:07PM (#15163211)
Nah I maintain "Survive and replicate" is a sub-problem in the larger "Perfect ones' Soul" objective function.
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by visarga on Tuesday September 05, 2017 @12:36AM (#15172564)
What is a "soul"? I can define "survive and replicate" for you, on the other hand.

<rant>This exemplifies the issue I have with current day philosophy. It's too blissfully unaware of the discoveries in AI. While they redefine consciousness the 1000th time, the AI researchers make "Reinforcement Learning Agents" that play Go, drive cars, paint, draw and can take a pizza order from you. Philosophers, get more concrete.</>

Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by jayunit on Saturday September 02, 2017 @10:29PM (#15159384)
Any thoughts on what role novelty search might play? ("Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective" by Kenneth Stanley)
Re:Where will artificial general intelligence come from? by russdill on Saturday September 02, 2017 @06:58PM (#15158691)
Is there a video of your giving the talk? Or at least audio?